LOUISVILLE -- Saturday at Valhalla Golf Club was electric. Following Friday's bizarre round that started with the No. 1 player in the world in jail and ended with him shooting 66, crowds flocked to the 2024 PGA Championship to root on Scottie Scheffler. What they got was his first round over par in 266 days as he receded from contention, but the consolation prize was a great one: One of the more bunched up, loaded leaderboards over the last several majors.
At the end of the third round, Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele co-lead at 15 under, but there are 13 players within five shots of the lead. That's a big number, especially on a golf course that is playing closer to an average in the 60s. In other words, expect fireworks until the final putt drops Sunday.
With Scheffler out of the mix after his 73, and Brooks Koepka and Rory McIlroy too far back to seriously contend in the final round, let's rank the golfers in order of most likely to win on Sunday to least likely.
1. Collin Morikawa (-15)
Odds: +240 -- The two-time major champion will try to make it three in his first 18 such starts, which is an historic pace ahead of Tiger Woods, Brooks Koepka and Jordan Spieth. Morikawa has been the second-worst putter of anybody currently in the top eight, which is encouraging as it relates to his prospects to win Sunday.
He'll have to do it with driving accuracy because he's nearly last in distance. When juxtaposed with how Bryson DeChambeau is playing, it shows just how many different ways there are to win a major. Morikawa will have to continue to hit fairways on Sunday, but the conditions at Valhalla -- target golf with dartboard greens -- are suiting him perfectly. He should emerge with No. 3 on Sunday, though something to keep an eye on is the fact that his short game has been unreal as he's 15 for 19 in scrambling. That's tough to maintain for 72 holes.
This leaderboard is giving some serious 2020 PGA Championship (Harding Park) vibes.
— Zephyr Melton (@zephyrmelton) May 18, 2024
Low scores, no separation at the top, tons of stars in the mix. Getting a feeling the same guy is gonna win, too.
2. Xander Schauffele (-15)
Odds: +260 -- Here's a stat that surprised me: Morikawa is 1 of 4 (.250) in closing out 54-hole leads as a pro, while Schauffele is 3 of 9 (.334). This is actually a nice spot for Schauffele, who seems uncomfortable from out in front. It should benefit him to be sidled up next to somebody equally talented as they take on a course they know must be lit on fire to go get a victory. Schauffele sometimes struggles at understanding the rhythms of a major, so not having to judge when to press and when to lay back -- because everybody is going to be firing all day -- should actually play into his hands. If Schauffele is going to win a major -- and he eventually will -- this is likely how he's going to do it.
3. Bryson DeChambeau (-13)
Odds: +600 -- The 2020 U.S. Open champion is playing some of the best major golf of his life, and he had an important eagle hole out on the 18th Saturday to get into one of the final few pairings on Sunday. He's leading the field in driving distance and is fifth in strokes gained off the tee thus far. It's a great set up for him, and even when he misses fairways -- as long as he doesn't miss them by too wide of a margin -- his speed can neutralize some of the thicker rough at Valhalla. He's either going to win or come extremely close to it.
Bryson DeChambeau leads the field this week in driving distance.
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) May 18, 2024
Both Tiger Woods in 2000 and Rory McIlroy in 2014 led the field in driving distance in their PGA wins at Valhalla.
4. Viktor Hovland (-13)
Odds: +700 -- Did anyone actually see this coming? Hovland has been awesome for basically the first time in 2024. It has been a horrible year for somebody who was probably the best player in the world over the last six months of 2023. Hovland has no top 15s, and his 0.66 strokes gained is by far his worst of the last six years. But on a week in which he has been reunited with coach Joe Mayo, Hovland has thrived and is currently seventh in approach play. Now he finds himself in the same spot he was in a year ago, right on the verge of winning the PGA Championship. I don't think his swing changes will hold under the Sunday pressure of a major, but he's certainly moving more in the right direction.
5. Sahith Theegala (-14)
Odds: +650 -- Do I want Sahith Theegala to win this major championship? I do. It would be incredible if he electrified Louisville on Sunday and thundered home to his first major. Do I actually believe that's going to happen? I do not. Theegala is top five in this field in putting, and he's not driving it as well as he needs to be to hold on to a lead and claim a victory Sunday. Still, he's going to empty the tank going for the win, which will be fascinating to watch and experience over the final round.
6. Shane Lowry (-13)
Odds: +1200 -- It's not so much that it's difficult to follow a total heater like he found on Saturday with his 62 with another great round the following day (though it is tough) but more so that Lowry is the worst player from tee to green in the current top 10 -- and it's actually not even close. Certainly, he could just putt the lights out for two straight rounds on the weekend and win this tournament, but there is not much historic precedence.
7. Justin Thomas (-10)
Odds: +6000 -- I wouldn't normally have him in this spot given how far back he sits -- eight behind Morikawa and Schauffele. However, Thomas has won a PGA from seven deep (!) in the last two years, and also he's leading the field from tee to green this week despite being nearly last in putting. That has 64 written all over it, and he knows it.
"Everybody has a scenario that runs in their head of them potentially winning the tournament, but how that happens, you don't know," Thomas said. "I feel like I have done the most important part of putting myself at least within striking distance, and I'm going to need a really good front nine tomorrow to work my way in the mix. But I feel like I'm fully capable of that of how I'm playing, and it would be nice to have a chance there on the back nine."
8. Justin Rose (-12)
Odds: +3500 -- See all the reasons above for Lowry but then include the fact that Rose is a shot back of his Ryder Cup teammate. As Lowry finished up Saturday, Rose embraced him with a huge hug to celebrate what was a best-ball 60 in the third round. That was probably, unfortunately for both of them (though quite enjoyable!), the most memorable moment they'll have on the 18th green this week.
9. Robert MacIntyre (-12)
Odds: +3500 -- Valhalla does not exactly scream "Bob MacIntyre is going to win his first major," but here we are. He's been awesome from tee to green this week and is doing it with length off the tee. It's tough to see him overcoming all the horses in front of him, but he's at least put himself into a situation where it's conceivable that he does something silly and grabs his first big one.
