The PGA Tour is heading back to California on Thursday for the 2018 Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Dustin Johnson is the Vegas favorite at 11/2, followed closely by Jon Rahm, Jason Day, and Rory Mcllroy at 10/1.

Before you make any bets or enter a daily fantasy golf tournament on DraftKings or FanDuel, you'll want to hear what the team at SportsLine has to say.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, was all over Matt Kuchar at the Waste Management Phoenix Open last week. Despite being a 40-1 long shot, the model projected him to be a top contender. The result: Kuchar shot 68 or better in his final three rounds and finished tied for fifth. Anybody who used their model had plenty of great value selections to choose from.

Now that the field for the 2018 Pebble Beach Pro-Am is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

One huge surprise the model is calling for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am this year: Charley Hoffman, a 66-1 long shot, will make a serious run at the title. He's a target for anybody looking for a huge payday.

Hoffman is coming off a disappointing performance at the Waste Management Phoenix Open that saw him finish 26th. However, he's been hot this season with top-10 finishes at the Hero World Challenge and QBE Shootout - both unofficial PGA Tour events.

Another curveball: Phil Mickelson, a three-time winner of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, doesn't even sniff the top-12. He's somebody to completely steer clear of this week.

Also, three additional players with odds longer than 25/1 are positioning themselves to make a serious run at the title. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the 2018 Pebble Beach Pro-Am this year? And what long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the updated odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that has been red-hot so far this season, and find out.

Dustin Johnson 11/2
Jon Rahm 10/1
Rory Mcllory 10/1
Jason Day 10/1
Jordan Spieth 11/1
Gary Woodland 25/1
Paul Casey 28/1
Phil Mickelson 28/1
Matt Kuchar 33/1
Pat Perez 33/1
Brandt Snedeker 33/1
Branden Grace 33/1
Patrick Reed 35/1
Patrick Cantlay 35/1
Chesson Hadley 45/1
Adam Scott 50/1
Chez Reavie 50/1
Kevin Chappell 50/1
Kevin Kisner 50/1
Charley Hoffman 66/1