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The week before a major often features a PGA Tour field that's missing some of the biggest stars in the sport. However, that can create an opportunity for golfers few expected to emerge victorious, and for longshot bettors, there's a chance to find value there. The 2025 Valero Texas Open tees off from TPC San Antonio on Thursday, April 3, with the Masters following a week later. None of the last three Valero Texas Open winners entered with more than one previous PGA Tour victory, making it truly a tournament anyone can win. Ludvig Aberg is the 12-1 favorite (bet $100 to win $1,200) in the latest 2025 Valero Texas Open odds, followed by Tommy Fleetwood (14-1), Corey Conners (18-1), Patrick Cantlay (20-1) and Hideki Matsuyama (20-1). Four of those five golfers have multiple PGA Tour victories, while Fleetwood is still searching for his first win on tour.
Can Fleetwood finally break through this week, or will a longshot finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2025 Valero Texas Open? Fleetwood is +160 (risk $100 to win $160) to finish inside the top 10 and +300 to crack the top five. Akshay Bhatia, who's seeking to become the fifth player to win back-to-back years at the Valero Texas Open, is a 28-1 longshot to repeat. Bhatia will begin his title defense on Thursday at 2:14 p.m. ET, playing alongside Aberg and Maverick McNealy.
SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up nearly $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
Now that the 2025 Valero Texas Open field is locked in, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and revealed its longshot betting picks:
Jordan Spieth (22-1 at FanDuel)
Spieth had one of the biggest reliefs of his career at the Valero Texas Open in 2021 when he won his first tournament in nearly four years. That was an extremely difficult stretch for one of the most well-known names in golf, and it was one of the biggest surprises in the sport as Spieth won three tournaments in 2017 before going on the elongated winless streak. Spieth, who has 13 career PGA Tour wins, has made the cut in five of six tournaments this season, including two top-10 results.
The Texas native finished 10th in last year's Valero Texas Open for his fourth top-10 result over his last six events at TPC San Antonio. He's made the cut in seven of eight career Valero Texas Open events. The 31-year-old ranks 44th on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained, which isn't stellar, but it's significantly better than his 80th ranking last year. Given Spieth's career success at TPC San Antonio, the model projects value this weekend. FanDuel Sportsbook has Spieth priced at 22-1 odds.
Denny McCarthy (30-1)
McCarthy nearly claimed his first PGA Tour victory at last year's Valero Texas Open before falling to Akshay Bhatia in a playoff. Although he's still seeking that first win, McCarthy is coming off his fourth top-20 finish over his last five tournaments after placing T-14 at the Players Championship. He's eighth on the PGA Tour in Par 4s this season, which has helped him finish toward the top of leaderboards, and the 32-year-old has made the cut in all eight of his PGA Tour starts.
McCarthy shot a 9-under 63 on his final round of the Valero Texas Open last year to make a late run and force a playoff. McCarthy's putter has been a surprising weakness during the 2025 PGA Tour season. He ranked seventh in one-putt percentage, fourth in putts per round and 12th in putting average last season, and if the 32-year-old can drain some putts this week, he can make another run at taking home the Valero Texas Open title and return value in doing so.
Daniel Berger (40-1)
Berger has four career PGA Tour victories, but he's chasing his first win since 2021. He's finished in the top 25 in each of his last five tournaments, including T-2 at the Phoenix Open in early February. The 31-year-old is coming off a T-20 finish at the Players Championship.
He is 12th on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained this season and is driving the ball with precision in 2025. Berger is fifth in total driving and 10th in driving accuracy and can get out of trouble if needed, ranking 10th in scrambling and second in scrambling from the rough. His putter has failed him this season, but some timely putts in a 2025 Valero Texas Open field without the sport's elite and Berger can be this year's surprise longshot victor at TPC San Antonio.
More Valero Texas Open 2025 picks
You've seen the latest longshots from the model. Now, see the Valero Texas Open leaderboard, including forecasted finishes for Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Corey Conners, Patrick Cantlay, and more. Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 13 golf majors, including the last three Masters and three majors in 2024.
You can also view expert advice before locking in your PGA Tour picks. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Eric Cohen's best bets for a $1 million parlay, all from an expert who correctly predicted the pre-tournament outright winner in seven events over the last two seasons, for the 2025 Valero Texas Open.
2025 Valero Texas Open odds, favorites
Get full 2025 Valero Texas Open picks, best bets and predictions here.
Ludvig Aberg +1200
Tommy Fleetwood +1400
Corey Conners +1800
Patrick Cantlay +2000
Hideki Matsuyama +2000
Jordan Spieth +2200
Keegan Bradley +2500
Akshay Bhatia +2800
Denny Mccarthy +3000
Si Woo Kim +3500
Keith Mitchell +4000
Tony Finau +4000
Daniel Berger +4000
Tom Kim +4500
Sam Burns +5000
Samuel Stevens +5500
Bud Cauley +5500
Gary Woodland +5500
J.T. Poston +5500
Rico Hoey +6000
Matt Fitzpatrick +6000
Jacob Bridgeman +6000
Jake Knapp +6000
Maverick McNealy +6000
Harry Hall +6500
Charley Hoffman +7000
Ben Griffin +7000
Kurt Kitayama +7000
Andrew Novak +7000
Rickie Fowler +7500
Taylor Moore +7500
Lee Hodges +8000
Patrick Rodgers +8000
Alex Smalley +8000
Brian Harman +8000
Ryan Fox +8000
Justin Rose +8000
Chris Kirk +8000
Thorbjorn Olesen +8000
Ryan Gerard +8000
Matt Kuchar +9000
Seamus Power +9000
Niklas Norgaard +9000
Beau Hossler +9000
Victor Perez +10000
Isaiah Salinda +10000
Matt Wallace +10000
Tom Hoge +10000
Mac Meissner +11000
Sam Ryder +11000
Eric Cole +11000
Jesper Svensson +11000
Cameron Young +11000
Andrew Putnam +11000
Max Mcgreevy +12000
Aldrich Potgieter +12000
Michael Thorbjornsen +12000
Max Homa +12000
Doug Ghim +12000
Matthias Schmid +12000
Vince Whaley +15000
Benjamin James +15000
Sami Valimaki +15000
Joel Dahmen +15000
Ben Martin +15000
Alejandro Tosti +15000
Chan Kim +15000
Where to bet on PGA Tour tournaments
Here are some of the sportsbooks to bet on the PGA, along with the various PGA Tour sportsbook promos they currently offer.
