After winning the 2024 Travelers Championship on Sunday over Tom Kim in a playoff, Scottie Scheffler said that his plan was to not return to the PGA Tour until the week of the Open Championship at Royal Troon. This was a mild surprise given Scheffler has won six of his last 10 events with plenty of runway for more, plus the fact that he will be off from competitive golf for nearly a month before teeing it up at the 152nd Open.
It doesn't change the confidence of the oddsmakers, though. Scheffler remains the heavy favorite to win for the seventh time this season. Should he succeed, he would be picking up his second major of the season and third of his career moving him halfway to the career grand slam with only the PGA Championship and U.S. Open to go.
How likely is Scheffler to win at Troon? Let's take a look with the Open just three weeks away.
Favorites
- Scottie Scheffler: 9/2
This is the least confident I have been about Scheffler going into a major so far this year. Why? It's been his least prolific major championship to date. In his last five appearances, Scheffler has just one top 10, and his 1.93 strokes gained per round at Opens is behind Shane Lowry, Tom Kim, Brian Harman, Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood and several other players.
- Rory McIlroy: 7-1
- Bryson DeChambeau: 12-1
- Xander Schauffele: 14-1
- Ludvig Aberg: 16-1
- Collin Morikawa: 16-1
McIlroy is a much better and more valuable bet at 7-1 than Scheffler at 9/2. The four-time major champion has been awesome at Opens over the last five years, gaining 2.43 strokes per round and putting up three top 10 finishes, tied for the most of anyone alongside Fleetwood and Jordan Spieth. Schauffele at 14-1 is also a nice play as he is one of just four golfers to make the cut at each of the last five Opens (Fleetwood, Spieth, Cameron Smith).
Fringe favorites
- Viktor Hovland: 18-1
- Jon Rahm: 20-1
- Tommy Fleetwood: 22-1
- Cam Smith: 22-1
- Brooks Koepka: 25-1
Fleetwood is fascinating here but probably more as a top 10 pick than anything. This is the lowest I've seen Rahm -- who finished T2 here a year ago -- in a long time. Koepka (who has five majors, including one a year ago!) also seems a bit low. I don't necessarily love anyone in this group to actually win the tournament.
Everyone else
- Tyrrell Hatton: 30-1
- Patrick Cantlay: 30-1
- Matt Fitzpatrick: 30-1
- Hideki Matsuyama: 30-1
- Shane Lowry: 35-1
- Tony Finau: 40-1
- Tom Kim: 40-1
- Max Homa: 40-1
- Justin Thomas: 40-1
- Jordan Spieth: 40-1
- Joaquin Niemann: 40-1
- Wyndham Clark: 50-1
- Min Woo Lee: 50-1
- Will Zalatoris: 50-1
Nobody has as many top 25s in the last five Opens as Spieth (five). Only Fleetwood (four) even comes close. My eyes run more toward Lowry (35-1), Finau (40-1) and Kim (40-1). All three of them are right in that 2.0 strokes gained per round over the last five Opens (granted, Kim has only played two of them), and all three of them have scored better at this tournament than Scheffler over the last five. Plus, all three have been playing some nice golf over the last several weeks and should take a little momentum into Troon (although that can obviously change between now and when the tournament starts).
