The PGA Tour's annual Florida swing begins with the 2024 Cognizant Classic at PGA National Resort near Miami. It's not a new tournament but rather a tournament with a new name after being known as the Honda Classic for over 40 years. This event has typically been one of the most competitive on tour as eight of the last 10 editions have been decided by one stroke or in a playoff. The Champion Course at PGA National Resort will host the par-71 tournament, and the Cognizant Classic 2024 tees off on Thursday at 6:45 a.m. ET.
Playing this event for the first time in six years, Rory McIlroy is the 6-1 favorite, according to the latest 2024 Cognizant Classic odds. There's a big dropoff to the second-favorite on the odds board, which is Cameron Young at 22-1. Russell Henley is at 25-1, while the last two winners of this event -- Sepp Straka and Chris Kirk -- are sure to factor into lots of Cognizant Classic 2024 bets as 45-1 long shots. Before locking in your 2024 Cognizant Classic picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $9,700 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
McClure's model included Hideki Matsuyama in its best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,000.
The model also predicted Jon Rahm would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scottie Scheffler winning in 2022.
In addition, McClure's best bets included Nick Taylor (70-1) winning the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, and Rickie Fowler (14-1) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic. This same model has also nailed a whopping 10 majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now that the Cognizant Classic 2024 field is set, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top 2024 Cognizant Classic predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the Cognizant Classic 2024: Young, the 2022 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year and one of the top favorites, struggles this week and doesn't even crack the top five. Young has been playing well in recent weeks, finishing T-18 or better in each of his last two starts, which includes a T-8 showing at the WM Phoenix Open. However, Young has never won a PGA Tour event, and SportsLine's model isn't expecting him to find success at PGA National.
The Champions Course at PGA National is a venue that demands precision, an area in which Young struggled last season. In fact, Young finished the 2022-23 season ranked 106th in driving accuracy (59.05%). He also finished last season ranked 113th in putts per round (29.10) and 158th in strokes gained: putting (-0.287), which doesn't bode well for his chances to finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2024 Cognizant Classic.
Another surprise: Daniel Berger, a 45-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. A four-time winner on the PGA Tour, Berger had a back injury that sidelined him for 18 months before returning in January at the American Express. He's played 10 rounds of competitive golf since that lengthy layoff, shooting par or better in nine of those rounds. He also has had great success at this course, carding a pair of fourth-place finishes over his last two starts at it, to go along with a runner-up in his first appearance back in 2015.
During his last full season on tour, Berger ranked 11th in strokes gained: total and was known for his ball-striking abilities. Those strengths are still there as this year he ranks 15th in driving accuracy percentage and is in the top quartile of the tour in greens in regulation percentage. This course features lots of water hazards that require precision in the 125-200 yard range to avoid them, and Berger ranks in the top 10 in strokes gained: approach shots from that range. When you combine his current game, positive course history and long odds, he's a name to keep in mind with 2024 Cognizant Classic bets. See who else to pick here.
How to make 2024 Cognizant Classic picks
The model is also targeting five other golfers with odds of 30-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here.
Who will win the 2024 Cognizant Classic, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the Cognizant Classic 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected Cognizant Classic leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 10 golf majors, including last year's Masters and Open Championship.
2024 Cognizant Classic odds, field
See the full Cognizant Classic picks, best bets, and predictions here.
Rory McIlroy +600
Cameron Young +2200
Russell Henley +2500
Matt Fitzpatrick +2800
Min Woo Lee +3000
J.T. Poston +3000
Tom Kim +3000
Shane Lowry +3300
Sungjae Im +3500
Byeong Hun An +3500
Eric Cole +3500
Rasmus Højgaard +4000
Keith Mitchell +4000
Matthieu Pavon +4500
Corey Conners +4500
Sepp Straka +4500
Chris Kirk +4500
Daniel Berger +4500
Stephan Jaeger +4500
Beau Hossler +5000
Thorbjørn Olesen +5000
Alex Noren +5000
Justin Rose +5000
Denny McCarthy +5500
Jake Knapp +5500
Adam Svensson +6000
Rickie Fowler +6000
Luke List+6000
Tom Hoge +6000
Akshay Bhatia +7000
Doug Ghim +7500
Thomas Detry +7500
Taylor Pendrith +7500
Billy Horschel +7500
Erik van Rooyen +7500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +8000
Brendon Todd +8000
Lucas Glover +9000
Ryo Hisatsune +9000
Ryan Fox +9000
Taylor Montgomery +9000
Davis Thompson +10000
Matt Wallace +10000
Mark Hubbard +10000
Maverick McNealy +11000
Justin Suh +11000
Austin Eckroat +11000
Ben Griffin +11000
Adam Schenk +11000
Chesson Hadley +11000
Sami Valimaki +11000
Gary Woodland +12000
Jhonattan Vegas +12000
Chris Gotterup +12000
Matt Kuchar +15000
Kevin Yu +15000
Robert MacIntyre +15000
