Matt Fitzpatrick will not only golf in his home country at the 2023 Open Championship, he'll do so alongside his brother. Alex Fitzpatrick, who has played in two PGA Tour events, made the 2023 Open Championship field due to his performance at the Final Open Qualifying. Matt Fitzpatrick has two PGA Tour victories in 129 events, and the brothers from England will compete to win their first Open Championship, which tees off at Royal Liverpool Golf Club beginning on Thursday, July 20. Will playing in front of that home crowd help their confidence with a supportive crowd? Matt has 28-1 2023 Open Championship odds from Caesars Sportsbook as one of 16 golfers at 30-1 or lower. Rory McIlroy is the 21-4 Open Championship 2023 favorite.
Before locking in any 2023 Open Championship picks, be sure to see the 2023 Open Championship predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $10,000 on its best bets since that point, nailing tournament after tournament.
McClure's model predicted Rahm would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. And at the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.
In addition, the model included Nick Taylor in its best bets to win the 2023 RBC Canadian Open. That bet hit at +7000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,900. McClure's best bets also included Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, even though he hadn't won a PGA Tour event since 2018.
This same model has also nailed a whopping nine majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now that the 2023 Open Championship field is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2023 Open Championship leaderboard.
Top 2023 Open Championship predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the Open Championship 2023: Jordan Spieth, the 2017 British Open champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles at Royal Liverpool and doesn't even crack the top 10. Spieth is going through a rough stretch in his career, missing the cut in three of his last five tournaments and going 28 PGA Tour events without a win.
He was one of the most dominating golfers in the sport for a three-year run from 2014 to 2016 with 10 tournament victories. But he only had two wins in his last 127 tournaments and his stats have significantly declined this year. He once ranked in the top two on the PGA Tour in putting average, including No. 1 twice, and in the top five in strokes gained in all three years. This season, he ranks 21st in strokes gained and 57th in putting average. His putting decline is alarming since he was one of the best putters in the world fewer than 10 years ago. He's never been one of the top drivers, but his putting ability made up for that during his dominant years. At 18-1 odds, the model doesn't see enough value in Spieth given his lack of recent success. See which golfers to fade here.
The model has also locked in its projection for Rory McIlroy (21-4), the No. 3-ranked player in the world and the 2014 Open champion. Be prepared to hear ad nauseam that his only Open Championship victory came in 2014, when the tournament was last held at Royal Liverpool Golf Club. Moreover, he hasn't won another major since 2014, when he followed his Open Championship win with a PGA Championship title.
However, McIlroy returns to Royal Liverpool in strong form and has finished inside of the top 10 in his last five tournaments, including a second-place showing at the U.S. Open. During that run, he averaged an incredible 1.212 strokes gained off the tee and outdrove the average distance of the field by 30.5 yards. If he can keep those long drives on the fairways at the Open 2023, he'll give himself a chance to win his next Open Championship. See where every golfer finishes here.
On the other hand, the model has examined Jon Rahm's (12-1) chances to win his second major championship of the season. The Spaniard had a blazing stretch during the season, winning four of seven stroke play tournaments he started and finished. But he's gone winless in six events since then, with only one top-10 over his last four tournaments. However, Rahm's metrics still indicate he's in a class of his own, as he boasts top-three rankings in strokes gained total, tee-to-green and approaching the green.
While the field won't intimidate him, the links courses that the Open Championship offers have gotten the best of Rahm. He has just one top-10 over six previous Open Championship starts, so he'll try to put those past woes in the rearview mirror and move one step closer to the career Grand Slam. See the full 2023 Open Championship projections from the model here.
How to make 2023 Open Championship picks
The model is also targeting five golfers with Open Championship odds 2023 of 20-1 or longer who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's 2023 Open Championship picks here.
So, who will win the Open Championship 2023, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2023 Open Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2023 Open Championship leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed nine golf majors, including this year's Masters.
2023 Open Championship odds, field
See full the Open Championship 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here.
Rory McIlroy +525
Scottie Scheffler +750
Jon Rahm +1200
Rickie Fowler +1200
Tommy Fleetwood +1500
Viktor Hovland +1500
Cameron Smith +1500
Brooks Koepka +1800
Xander Schauffele +2500
Tyrrell Hatton +2500
Collin Morikawa +2800
Shane Lowry +3000
Dustin Johnson +3000
Jordan Spieth +3000
Patrick Cantlay +3000
Matt Fitzpatrick +3500
Tom Kim +4000
Justin Rose +4500
Cameron Young +4500
Tony Finau +5000
Adam Scott +5000
Bryson DeChambeau +5000
Max Homa +5000
Wyndham Clark +5000
Justin Thomas +5500
Min Woo Lee +5500
Hideki Matsuyama +6500
Jason Day +6500
Robert ManIntyre +6600
Taylor Gooch +7000
Sam Burns +7000
Sungjae Im +8000
Patrick Reed +8500
Denny McCarthy +8500
Keegan Bradley +8500
Corey Conners +8500
Ryan Fox +9000
Louis Oosthuizen +9000
Padraig Harrington +10000
Sepp Straka +10000
Branden Grace +10000
Russell Henley +10000
Sahith Theegala +125000
Joaquin Niemann +12500
Phil Mickelson +12500
Victor Perez +15000
Paul Casey +15000
Antoine Rozner +1500
Harris English +1500
Si-woo Kim +1500
Rasmus Højgaard +15000
Thomas Detry +15000
Yannik Paul +15000
Taylor Moore +15000
Brian Harman +17500
Adrian Meronk +17500
Adam Schenk +17500
Lucas Herbert +17500
Nicolai Hojgaard +17500
Jordan Smith +20000
Christian Bezuidenhout +20000
Richie Ramsay +20000
Sergio Garcia +20000
Marc Leishman +20000
Davis Riley +20000
Thobjorn Olesen +20000
Thomas Pieters +20000
Kurt Kitayama +20000
Gary Woodland +20000
Brendon Todd +20000
Byeong Hun An +20000
Alex Noren +20000
Aaron Wise +20000
Abraham Ancer +22500
Keith Mitchell +22500
Adrian Otaegui +25000
Lee Westwood +25000
Ewen Ferguson +25000
Danny Willett +25000
Seamus Power +25000
Tom Hoge +25000
KH Lee +25000
Richard Bland +25000
Harold Varner +25000
Rikuya Hoshino +30000
JJ Spaun +30000
Guido Migliozzi +30000
Connor Syme +30000
Takumi Kanaya +30000
Billy Horschel +30000
J.T. Poston +30000
Francesco Molinari +30000
Jazz Janewattanond +30000
Charl Schwartzel +30000
Hurly Long +30000
Christen Lawrence +30000
Cameron Tringale +30000
Pablo Larrazabal +30000
Emiliano Grillo +30000
Callum Shrinkwin +30000
Mackenzie Hughes +30000
Matthew Southgate +30000
Matt Wallace +35000
Henrik Stenson +35000
David Lingmerth +35000
Ari Arnaus +35000
Luke List +35000
Matthew Jordan +35000
Dan Bradbury +35000
Laurie Canter +35000
Andrew Putnam +40000
Sami Valimaki +40000
Zach Johnson +40000
Lee Hodges +40000
Shubhankar Sharma +50000
Scott Stallings +50000
Paul Lawrie +50000
Michael Kim +50000
Stewart Cink +50000
Ben Griffin +50000
Trey Mullinax +50000
Nacho Elvira +50000
Todd Hamilton +50000
David Micheluzzi +50000
Kalle Samooja +50000
Alejandro Canizares +50000
Ernie Els +50000
Kazuki Higa +50000
Ockie Strydom +50000
Marc Warren +75000
Ben Curtis +75000
Oliver Farr +75000
Alex Fitzpatrick +75000
Bio Kim +75000
Darren Clarke +100000
Justin Leonard +100000
John Daly +150000
David Duval +150000
