While there are three alternates in the 2023 Kentucky Derby field, there is not going to be a bigger upset than Rich Strike's win as an 80-1 longshot last year. Jace's Road and King Russell are both 32-1 in the 2023 Kentucky Derby odds, making them the biggest longshots as the horses approach the gates. The 2023 Kentucky Derby field features just 18 horses following five scratches, including morning-line favorite Forte just hours before Saturday's 6:57 p.m. ET post time. Which horses have value as 2023 Kentucky Derby bets?
Tapit Trice, who is the most expensive horse in the field, is a 9-2 co-favorite with Angel of Empire. Derma Sotogake (7-1), Two Phil's (7-1) and Kingsbarns (9-1) became stronger 2023 Kentucky Derby contenders when Forte was scratched. Before making any 2023 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the 2023 Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last fives years, including an exacta in 2022 with Mo Donegal and Nest. He also nailed Flightline's win at the Breeders' Cup Classic last November.
Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby 2023. In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 14 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. That means he held a ticket with the winners of both races all but four times in the last 14 years. He's also called nine of the last 18 Preakness winners, keenly understanding when the Kentucky Derby winner was poised for victory or a massive upset, and nailed the 2022 Preakness trifecta. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.
Now, with the 2023 Kentucky Derby futures already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2023 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling's surprising 2023 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Tapit Trice, who is one of the co-favorites at 9-2. Priced at 5-1 on the morning line, he's now moved to even shorter odds after five scratches this week, most notably Forte. Tapit Trice has won four straight races and is a popular ticket after taking first in the Blue Grass Stakes and the Tampa Bay Derby within the past two months.
But Demling is taking a hard stance against him, saying he barely even cracks the top 10 in a race he doesn't think will match his style. "Still needs to show some improvement -- especially mentally -- in my mind to face an 18-horse field," Demling told SportsLine. See which other 2023 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Derma Sotogake at 7-1. A Japan-bred horse has never won a Kentucky Derby, but this thoroughbred colt has a clear shot at making history and winning the Run for the Roses. Demling was impressed by Derma Sotogake's win at the UAE Derby on Mar. 25, where his super speed was on full display on the 1 3/16 mile track at Meydan Racecourse.
"The Dubai to the Kentucky Derby route has not been very successful in the past but this Japanese horse is very intriguing," Demling told SportsLine. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2023 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling's top choice is a massive longshot who "has a big shot to win" on Saturday. Anyone who backs this horse could hit it big. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2023? And which huge longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2023 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who nailed 10 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2023 Kentucky Derby odds, futures
| Horse | Odds | Program # | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tapit Trice | 9-2 | 5 | SEE PICKS |
| Angel of Empire | 9-2 | 14 | SEE PICKS |
| Derma Sotogake | 7-1 | 20 | SEE PICKS |
| Two Phil's | 7-1 | 3 | SEE PICKS |
| Kingsbarn | 9-1 | 6 | SEE PICKS |
| Reincarnate | 13-1 | 7 | SEE PICKS |
| Verifying | 16-1 | 2 | SEE PICKS |
| Mage | 17-1 | 8 | SEE PICKS |
| Confidence Game | 17-1 | 4 | SEE PICKS |
| Mandarin Hero | 21-1 | 22 | SEE PICKS |
| Disarm | 25-1 | 11 | SEE PICKS |
| Hit Show | 26-1 | 1 | SEE PICKS |
| Rocket Can | 27-1 | 18 | SEE PICKS |
| Raise Cain | 30-1 | 16 | SEE PICKS |
| Sun Thunder | 30-1 | 13 | SEE PICKS |
| Cyclone Mischief | 31-1 | 21 | SEE PICKS |
| Jace's Road | 32-1 | 12 | SEE PICKS |
| King Russell | 32-1 | 23 | SEE PICKS |
| Forte | SCR | SCR | |
| Practical Move | SCR | SCR | |
| Skinner | SCR | SCR | |
| Lord Miles | SCR | SCR | |
| Continuar | SCR | SCR |
