It's the week after the Super Bowl, so it's time for my annual way-too-early projections for the upcoming season. While this is an impossible task in February, it is also a good springboard for some beneficial thought exercises. Which free agents do we think are staying? Who might get cut? Who has a bunch of holes to fill? And this year, there's another question; does anyone have the type of continuity we're used to seeing?
If you look at the quarterback projections below you'll see four teams -- the Jets, Panthers, Colts, and Raiders -- with no quarterback assigned to them. Those are the teams I'm certain will have new starting quarterbacks. But most of the bottom half of the projections could have a new starting quarterback. And that's only a third of the equation, at most. A ton of the guys who are staying put will either have a new head coach or a new offensive coordinator including almost half of my top 12. In other words, expect a lot of change as we adjust to new information.
Two veterans in that mix, and right in the middle of these projections are Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. We know Wilson will have a new head coach, we're still waiting to hear from Rodgers about what his future holds. For now, I'm projecting Rodgers as if he will be a Packer, and I'm projecting he will score fewer Fantasy points than Wilson in 2023.
This may surprise you, but Wilson actually outscored Rodgers on a per-game basis in 2022. And the fact that Wilson is five years younger than Rodgers makes it easier for me to believe in a Wilson bounceback. Also, we all think Sean Payton is an upgrade over Nathaniel Hackett. To this point, we don't have any reason to believe Rodgers' situation will be much better this year. Yes, Christian Watson could stay healthy, but Wilson could have an entire season with Jerry Jeudy as well.
Regardless of where you come out on those two, neither should be in your top-12, that should be pretty obvious looking at the list below. Guys like Deshaun Watson and Trey Lance have more upside while guys like Daniel Jones, Geno Smith, and Kirk Cousins were simply a lot better last year.
There are still many more questions to answer, and we'll get to those in the next six months. For now, here is my first run at 2023 QB projections:
