Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.
It's too early to be absolutely sure on which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Jonathan Taylor). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Bust Candidate (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
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Dave's Notebook:
- WENTZ: Reportedly dealing with a bicep injury that could compromise his arm strength.
- COMMANDERS: Still throwing the ball at the third-highest rate this season (66.7%). They still have yet to have a game where they throw below 60% of the snaps and nearly matched their season-high last week with a 70.7% pass rate (and that was with their run game as strong as it could get).
- WENTZ: Predictably, Wentz has been awful when pressured (-0.44 EPA/dropback, 68.7 QB Rating, three touchdowns). He totaled eight Fantasy points in each game against the Eagles and Cowboys, both of which had a pass rush pressure on north of 40% of their snaps.
- BEARS: Rank seventh-worst in pass rush pressure rate and are tied for third-fewest sacks this season (eight). Their highest pass rush rate this season was 38.7% in Week 1 in their monsoon game versus the 49ers (they were also 36.4% against the Giants).
- BEARS: Have allowed anywhere from 20 to 23 Fantasy points to three of the past four quarterbacks faced, but that includes three rushing touchdowns versus four passing touchdowns.
- Wentz's offensive line isn't great, so he's bound to feel some pressure. And while Chicago's secondary is young and inexperienced, they're tied for 10th in interceptions with five and have allowed one passer to throw for over 250 yards against them all year. Above all, Wentz's bicep injury has me worried about his ability to throw downfield, which was a huge component of his game last week. That dims his upside. I'm ready to start Aaron Rodgers over him, but still not Matthew Stafford or Russell Wilson. Geno Smith is a preferred starter over Wentz.
Flex Starter (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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Dave's Notebok:
- MCLAURIN: Is second on the Commanders in targets (Curtis Samuel has 45) and is third in receptions (J.D. McKissic has more). McLaurin is averaging a cool 17.2 yards per catch, but he watched Dyami Brown pick up deep targets for touchdowns last week and Jahan Dotson get fed touchdowns in the four games prior. He's not nearly as prioritized as Fantasy managers think he should be.
- BEARS: Not only have they been way better than expected against wide receivers (10th in Fantasy points per game allowed), but they've allowed a 58.7% completion rate specifically to outside receivers with just five completions of 20-plus yards given up. The only wide receiver to get 15-plus PPR points against Chicago this season is Justin Jefferson (on 13 targets).
- McLaurin has disappointed with one game north of 15 PPR points this season, but three others between 11 and 13 PPR points. That's the safe range to rely on in a short-week matchup at Chicago.
Start Him in PPR (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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Dave's Notebook:
- SAMUEL: You may have already read that Samuel leads the Commanders in targets (9.0 per game), but he also leads them in receptions (6.4 per game), red-zone targets (four) and catches for first downs (17).
- SAMUEL: Continues to dominate slot snaps for the Commanders near the line of scrimmage, though he did reel in a fantastic 32-yard bomb from Wentz last week. Samuel's ADOT (average depth of target) in his past two games is 7.53, which isn't much but more than double from his first three games. It's a sign his role is evolving.
- BEARS: Struggle specifically with slot cornerbacks, giving up an 81.8% catch rate (fifth-worst), 4.96 yards after catch per reception (YAC/reception) and five completions of 20-plus yards.
- Samuel remains a high-catch receiver who Wentz leans on more than anyone else. His role could diminish if the Commanders run game ever gets going, but for now, that's something that has to be proven, not assumed. Besides, Washington is still passing at a 66.7% clip. Samuel should continue his 12-point PPR floor with potential for close to 20. I'll chance it with him in full PPR over Jakobi Meyers, Adam Thielen and Allen Lazard.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sneaky Sleeper (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
If the 49ers run game was more efficient, there would be concern about Garoppolo having a game similar to what he posted in 2021 against Atlanta (235-1-0). But it's not, and the Falcons find ways to keep it close on the scoreboard, so Garoppolo should have the opportunity to ring up at least 20 Fantasy points. I feel safer going with him than Russell Wilson, Marcus Mariota or Justin Fields.
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Dave's Notebook:
- FALCONS: Rank in the bottom-five in completion rate (68.7%), passing yards (1,391) and pass attempts (201) allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Not surprisingly, four of five quarterbacks against Atlanta have found at least 22 Fantasy points (Jacoby Brissett couldn't do it). Those same four quarterbacks threw for 270-plus yards each.
- FALCONS: Have been thrown on the third-most of anyone in football (40.2 pass attempts per game). It's due in large part to the Falcons keeping games close. Every game has been decided by six points or fewer.
- GAROPPOLO: Finally clicked last week with a 253-2-0 stat line at Carolina. It helped that he played an inferior defense unlike his Week 3 and 4 opponents (Denver, L.A. Rams).
- FALCONS: Have been below a 30% pass rush pressure rate in three of five games including two of their past three. They don't blitz a lot (22.3% of snaps, bottom-10) and have four sacks over their past four games.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him in PPR (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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The fact that Meyers has stepped up with big games in each of his past two with two different quarterbacks is huge. Taking on a depleted Browns pass defense will only make him more desirable. Make him a lineup fixture in PPR and even in non-PPR as a flex ahead of D.J. Moore, Romeo Doubs, Rondale Moore and any Jets receiver.
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Dave's Notebook:
- MEYERS: Has a phenomenal 32.1% target per route run rate, and leads the Patriots in receptions despite playing two fewer games than everyone else. He's averaging 9.0 targets per game.
- MEYERS: Isn't just a slot guy anymore -- five of his seven catches last week came when he lined up wide. He's always been a fab route runner, but now he's becoming a well-rounded receiver willing to cross the middle of the field and make catches with defenders lowering the boom on him. Or, in the case of his touchdown last week, he's capable of racing past defenders.
- BROWNS: They've done a nice job holding receivers to a 57.7% catch rate, but they're still giving up 14.2 yards per catch (sixth-worst) and have 11 missed tackles on passes (fourth-worst). The Browns might have to go this one without top cornerback Denzel Ward, too.
Bust Candidate (Lineup Decisions)
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Hunt faces a tougher matchup than usual against the Patriots. Not surprisingly, Bill Belichick has his defense playing well. It feels less likely this week that Hunt will score, especially since he's seen just one goal-to-go opportunity in each of his past two games. He's probably good for about 10 PPR points.
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Dave's Notebook:
- HUNT: On the season has played 31 snaps in the red zone with 18 touches and two scores. Nick Chubb has played a little more but has twice as many touchdowns. Inside the 10 yard line, Hunt has eight touches on 15 snaps.
- HUNT: Touches by week: 12, 14, 15, 15, 15. That's good. Scrimmage yards by week: 70, 74, 61, 68, 57. That's not so good and definitely going in the wrong direction.
- PATRIOTS: Have yet to allow a touchdown to a running back. They're a little better than league average in rush yards per carry allowed to RBs (4.34) but they're top-10 in yards after contact allowed and have the fewest missed tackles on running back runs (eight).
- PATRIOTS: Drill deeper into their red-zone run defense and they have a defensive rush success rate of 87.5% (second-best in football). However, they've seen only eight red-zone rushes and none from the goal line.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sneaky Sleeper (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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If I had to pick a Jets receiver this week, Davis would be it. He's had at least 13 PPR points in 3 of 5 games and should be in line to see more targets in a competitive game against Green Bay. I'd obviously use him ahead of Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore, but I'd also give him a shot over Zay Jones, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Rondale Moore.
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Dave's Notebook:
- PACKERS: Have played the sixth-most zone coverage this year (75.5%) and have really only dipped their toes into more man coverage over the past few weeks. I expect the Packers to play a lot of zone this week so as to not give up big plays, unlike the Dolphins who played a ton of man last week against the Jets and got stung.
- DAVIS: Has been the most efficient receiver through two games with Zach Wilson against zone coverage. He's seen the highest target per route run rate (26.1%), had the highest catch rate (83%) and has the best receiving average (17.0) compared to Elijah Moore and especially Garrett Wilson.
- DAVIS: Is tied for the team lead in target share (18.5%) with Wilson but leads Jets receivers in catch rate (70%), yards per catch (16.0) and explosive play rate (40%). While these stats are encouraging, most of these numbers came in Week 4 against Pittsburgh, not last week in the Jets' runaway win versus Miami.
- PACKERS: Not only have allowed the highest catch rate to wide receivers on the season (77.6%) but have given up a ridiculous 87.5% catch rate over the past two weeks against Bailey Zappe and Daniel Jones. Furthermore, the Packers have afforded 13 completions of 20-plus yards on the year, 10th-most (four in their past two games).
- PACKERS: To be fair, the Packers do better in yards per catch allowed (11.6 ranks fifth-lowest) and are just worse than league average in YAC/reception (4.58).
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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Doubs should see enough work to post 10 PPR points, but I'm not so certain that Aaron Rodgers hasn't realized that Randall Cobb is the receiver he needs to get going. That keeps me from digging Doubs as anything more than a flex play this week. I'd rather go with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Zay Jones and Rondale Moore in PPR.
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Dave's Notebook:
- JETS: Play the third-most zone coverage in the league, which isn't a surprise given Robert Saleh's history. They're likely to play a lot of Cover-3 and Quarters coverage.
- DOUBS: Does have a 23.8% target per route run rate against zone (compared to 15.4% versus man). He specifically has his highest target per route run rate, highest receiving average and biggest YAC/reception against Cover-3.
- PACKERS: Rodgers has averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game, the Jets have seen an average of 30.6 pass attempts per game.
- LAFLEUR: Packers head coach Matt LaFleur lamented not running the ball more last week and seems to be focused on the ground game this week. That might cost all Packers receivers some targets.
Start Him in Non-PPR
Projections powered by
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The hunch is that the Packers attempt to get their run game going against a Jets run defense that's been lackluster since Week 4. Aaron Jones will see the most work but Dillon has a better-than-usual chance to score. He should at least rebound and see at least 80 total yards like he did in Week 4.
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Dave's Notebook:
- PACKERS: Coach Matt LaFleur lamented not running the ball more last week, telling the media "we've got to be – I'm talking to myself – more disciplined in our approach in terms of making sure that they get the necessary touches throughout the course of the game."
- PACKERS: Called 24 or fewer RB runs in 3 of 5 games this season, including 19 last week. The Packers posted 25-plus runs by RBs in Week 2 (a blowout win against the Bears) and Week 4 (an overtime win over the Patriots).
- DILLON: Saw a season-low six touches last week after getting 14-plus in Weeks 1 through 4. It happened to be his most efficient rushing week -- 5.67 yards per carry. Dillon's targets (6, 3, 3, 2, 0) have vanished.
- JETS: Allowed 4.9 yards per carry to the Steelers and Dolphins' running backs over the past two weeks. All four rushing touchdowns they've allowed have come in the red zone. New York has also allowed 3.84 yards after contact per rush to RBs in those two games, fourth-worst.
- DILLON: Has two fewer touches and one fewer touchdown than Aaron Jones in the red zone, but has played more snaps (six to two) and seen more touches (two to one) inside the 5-yard line than Jones.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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The situation and matchup aren't that great for Hurst, but as long as Higgins is sidelined, he should continue to see some moderate target volume. He registers as the best touchdown-or-bust tight end you could start in PPR ahead of Evan Engram, Robert Tonyan and Tyler Conklin.
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Dave's Notebook:
- HURST: Has 12-plus PPR points in each of his past two games.
- HURST: Specifically saw seven targets last week, an uptick helped by Tee Higgins absence as well as Joe Burrow treating Hurst like a check-down option when the pass rush got to him. The latter might be less of an issue this week for Burrow since the Saints pass rush hasn't been anywhere near as impactful as first thought.
- SAINTS: 8 or fewer half-PPR points to a tight end in every game this year, but Hurst will be their biggest challenge since Kyle Pitts in Week 1.
Start Him in non-PPR
Projections powered by
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As touchdown-or-bust players go, Hill has the upside to not only score but rip off multiple long runs. That's simply something no other low-end tight ends have. It's especially crazy because he's not playing that much and when he is playing, he's touching the ball a high percentage of the time. There's always a chance the Saints give him more work, too. He's a must-start in non-PPR and a low-end option in full-PPR. The tight ends I would start him over in non-PPR but NOT in any PPR are Hayden Hurst and Gerald Everett. Guys like Evan Engram, Cole Kmet and Robert Tonyan should be benched for Hill in all formats.
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Dave's Notebook:
- HILL: Has at least 8 PPR points in three of his past five games. He averaged 6.0 PPR points per game before last week.
- HILL: Has yet to play more than a third of the snaps for the Saints this season.
- HILL: Has played 55 snaps inside the 5-yard line in his career. He's had a touch on 21 of them (38%) and scored 13 times total (62% conversion rate). Despite ranking 198th in snaps among skill-position players (RB, WR, TE), he's inside the top-50 in touches and top-five in touchdown conversions.
- BENGALS: On the season against all positions they've allowed 4.18 yards per carry, 11th-best in the league. But since losing big D-tackle D.J. Reader in Week 3 they've let up 4.75 yards per rush and have cratered in yards before (ninth-worst) and after (about league average) contact. Those numbers do include Lamar Jackson's 4.8 rushing average in Week 5.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Bust Candidate (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
A snap count concern and some efficiency issues keep Dobbins from being nothing more than a touchdown-reliant running back who has had over 10 touches once in three games. I'd start him over Devin Singletary and Ezekiel Elliott, but I'd (nervously) rather start Raheem Mostert and Melvin Gordon.
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Dave's Notebook:
- WORKLOAD: Had his snaps decreased last week and didn't play in the fourth quarter of a tight game. Coach John Harbaugh said it was on purpose.
- DOBBINS: Hasn't quite been efficient in his return, averaging 3.9 yards per carry with eight runs of five-plus yards -- and six for zero or negative yards. Since his Week 3 return, he's 50th or worse among qualifying running backs in rush average, yards before contact and yards after contact. He's also seen just 28 carries.
- DOBBINS: Of his 31 PPR points, 12 have been from touchdowns (almost 40%).
- DOBBINS: Did look a little better on film this week compared to last -- he had a fantastic play where he broke a tackle in the backfield and turned a 2-yard loss into a 12-yard gain. His balance is as good as ever.
- GIANTS: Among the worst in run defense efficiency (5.12 yards per carry allowed to RBs) but have somehow given up just one rushing score and are in the middle of the pack in Fantasy points given up to running backs.
- HISTORY: Former Ravens defensive coordinator Don Martindale is back to face his old team. I am always a little concerned about a player's upside in this situation because the ex-coordinator practiced against the offense for years.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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I'm a little nervous that the Dolphins will keep dialing up blitzes and force Kirk Cousins into quick decisions. That's not when he's been best at this season. But if my other options are Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford and other imperfect passers, I might as well go with the guy who has an elite receiver and a not-bad matchup.
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Dave's Notebook:
- COUSINS: Has struggled against man coverage this year (50% completion rate, -0.14 EPA/dropback, 75.9 QB rating) compared to zone coverage (75.8% completion rate, 0.12 EPA/dropback, 94.7 QB rating). Has also struggled against the blitz (47.3% completion rate, -0.22 EPA/dropback, 75.2 QB rating).
- DOLPHINS: Play the third-most man coverage (42.3%) and blitz at the third-highest rate (38.1%).
- DOLPHINS: Have given up at least 23 Fantasy points to three of the past four QBs they've faced. That includes huge games to Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson as well as 23 points to Joe Burrow.
- COUSINS: Has not had more than 23 Fantasy points in a game this season.
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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The Dolphins realized they had to run the ball more and started giving more work to Mostert. It should keep paying off in favorable matchups, even if their top tackle (Terron Armstead) doesn't play. I'd cautiously start Mostert over J.K. Dobbins, Devin Singletary and Kareem Hunt.
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Dave's Notebook:
- MOSTERT: Has seen his playing time and touches rise dramatically over the past two weeks. Against the Bengals and Jets he's totaled 33 carries for 182 yards (5.5 yards per carry) with a rushing score and three catches for 21 yards.
- VIKINGS: Allow more Fantasy points per game to running backs than the Bengals and Jets.
- VIKINGS: Average an allowance of 4.16 yards per rush to RBs this season, but that's weighted heavily by the 1.9 rushing average Chicago had last week. They were at 4.54 yards per carry allowed before then.
- VIKINGS: And even with the run stuffing, they gave up 18 PPR points to David Montgomery. A rival rusher has at least 11 PPR points in every game against them this year.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Robinson is a Fantasy favorite, but he's become a touchdown-or-bust running back awfully fast. At best he will continue to split touches with Travis Etienne, but it's clear who the more impactful runner is. Tack on a tough matchup and Robinson is barely a bye-week replacement running back. I'd rather start Etienne, Ezekiel Elliott and Brian Robinson.
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Dave's Notebook:
- LAST WEEK: It sure felt like the Jaguars soured on Robinson quickly; after the first quarter, Robinson totaled 4 yards on four touches. By comparison, Travis Etienne had 48 yards on his first two carries.
- ROBINSON: His speed has been zapped and his elusiveness isn't far behind. To his credit, he still has elite vision and power, but it will keep costing him extra yards if his agility can't keep up.
- COLTS: Have held running backs to 3.3 yards per carry (third best) and are top-7 in defensive total rush EPA, defensive rush success rate and yards before and after contact allowed. They're tied for ninth-best in missed tackles on running back runs.
- ROBINSON: Has seen his playing time drop in each of his past four games.
- HISTORY: Yep, Robinson scored on the Colts back in Week 2. He also averaged 2.8 yards per carry on 23 carries. He's averaged 11.7 carries per game since.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
I couldn't be more bullish on sitting Harris. It's a tough matchup to begin with but Harris has been playing so poorly while the upstart Warren hasn't. My colleague Heath Cummings has speculated that Harris is playing hurt, which makes a ton of sense. Sit him for pretty much anybody who is slated to have 12-plus touches and has a semblance of explosiveness.
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Dave's Notebook:
- BUCCANEERS: Rank top-11 in rush average (4.07), rushing touchdowns (two), rush yards before (1.19) and after (2.90) contact allowed to running backs. They're also fifth in Fantasy points allowed to rival RBs this season.
- UH OH: Not only is Harris among the least efficient running backs this season, but his backup Jaylen Warren is among the most efficient! Warren ranks top-12 among qualifying running backs in yards per carry (4.95), rush EPA (0.04), rush success rate (47.4%), explosive play rate (10.5%), yards before contact per rush (2.21) and first in the league in avoided tackle rate (68.4%). Harris is no better than 30th in any of those categories.
- TOMLIN: Spoke this week of making changes offensively and specifically mentioned Warren. "We've been playing Jalen increasingly anyway, and I think that's going to continue," Tomlin said. "I think he's proven that he's a capable varsity player, and we need players from all parties involved. That has transpired and will continue to transpire."
Sneaky Sleeper (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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The glimmers of hope for Pickens are that he's making outstanding plays every week, he's connecting well with Pickett, is still not drawing No. 1-type coverage and figures to see plenty of targets in what should be a chasing-points game script. I do like him better than Diontae Johnson because he's made more splash plays and displayed a better connection with Pickett, but it's close in PPR.
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Dave's Notebook:
- PICKETT TO PICKENS: For all his troubles connecting with Johnson, there aren't nearly as many issues when it comes to Pickens. The rookie has caught 10 of 12 targets for 154 yards on a 19% target share in the past six quarters with Pickett. He's got a ridiculous 12.8 yards per target average and the highest ADOT (12.08 yards) and explosive play rate (25%) of anyone on the Steelers.
- PICKENS: Has 14-plus PPR points in each of his past two games and, technically, 4.2 PPR points per quarter with Pickett. That's better than both Johnson (2.3) and Chase Claypool (1.7).
- BUCCANEERRS: Allow a 55.9% catch rate to wide receivers (second-best behind the Giants) and are eighth-best in yards per catch (11.94). Receiver who line up wide are averaging a 49.3% catch rate (stingiest in football) and 10.05 yards per catch (second-stingiest).
- BUCCANEERS: Only two receivers have posted 15-plus PPR points against the Bucs this year.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Smith is among the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL and it would be surprising for the Cardinals to be the team to slow him down. He's also one of a handful of quarterbacks with upside for north of 25 Fantasy points. That's why it's easier to list who I would NOT start over Smith: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. Everyone else should sit for Smith.
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Dave's Notebook:
- SMITH: Has 20-plus Fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 and ranks among the NFL leaders in TD rate, passing yards, interceptions, QB rating and yards per attempt with the No. 1 completion rate (75.2%) among qualifiers.
- SMITH: Has been better against man coverage than zone but awesome against both. If there's any sensitivity to Smith's game, it's when he's pressured (59% completion rate, -0.20 EPA/dropback, 85.6 QB rating). However, he's only been pressured on just 44 of 157 pass attempts (10 came against the 49ers).
- CARDINALS: Typically play a lot of zone coverage, and have blitzed at the fourth-highest rate (38%) but are only 22nd in pass rush pressure rate, which isn't good given their blitz tendencies.
- SEAHAWKS: Allowed a 35.5% pressure rate in 3 of 5 games this year including a 36.7% rate last week at New Orleans. That didn't really slow Smith down.
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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Walker's Fantasy appeal is tied to his opportunity to be the Seahawks lead back. Before last week that meant anywhere from 12 to 17 carries most weeks with the potential for more in a blowout. This probably won't be a blowout, though, nor will it be a walk in the park. Treat Walker as a No. 2 running back with minimal production through the air.
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Dave's Notebook:
- WALKER: Displayed awesome cutback, vision and burst on his nice 69-yard touchdown run last week at New Orleans. NFL Next Gen Stats clocked him at 20.93 mph on that run.
- WALKER: Displayed hesitancy on many of his 22 other runs this year, leading to 15 carries of 3 or fewer yards.
- SEAHAWKS: As a team, the running backs rank first in rush EPA, rush yards per carry (6.08), second in yards before contact per rush, fifth in yards after contact per rush and fifth in 12-plus-yard runs (12-plus yards). But most of that success came against the Lions
- WALKER: Has played just nine third/fourth-down snaps this year, six of which are considered third-and-short. He's very likely to be replaced on the field in obvious passing-down situations by DeeJay Dallas this week.
- WALKER: Has specifically thrived on runs between the tackles (8.9 yards per carry with much of that coming on his touchdown last week). By comparison, Walker is averaging 2.9 yards per run on edge runs.
- CARDINALS: Fortunately for Walker, the Cardinals have allowed more yards per carry on between-the-tackle runs (4.5 and 1.51 yards before contact, both bottom-13) than on edge runs (3.76 yards per carry, 0.76 yards before contact, both top-10).
- CARDINALS: While they've struggled defending running backs via the pass, they've held Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Josh Jacobs, Cam Akers, Christian McCaffrey and Miles Sanders to a not-too-bad 4.2 yards per rush with one rushing score between them. Arizona has missed just 13 tackles on running back rushes this season, sixth-best in the league.
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Benjamin figures to be Arizona's primary running back in a glorious Week 6 matchup and certainly involved on passing downs. I'd expect at least four catches and 10 carries at minimum. Though there is concern he'll lose some playing time -- he's never played more than 55% of the snaps in the pros and hasn't been a full-time player since 2019 at Arizona State -- he's in the right place at the right time to help Fantasy managers out. I'd start Benjamin ahead of Darrell Henderson, Devin Singletary and both Jaguars running backs.
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Dave's Notebook:
- BENJAMIN: There isn't a lot to dislike -- he's a slightly smaller back but fast and shifty. More of feast-or-famine runner -- over 20% of his career runs have been for zero/negative yards and 6.3% have gone 10-plus yards. He's not much of a pile pusher, but when the Cardinals got him some rushing lanes last week he didn't disappoint.
- BENJAMIN: Averaging 4.5 yards per carry and 8.1 yards per catch on the year.
- BENJAMIN: 4 of 218 career snaps have come from 10 yards or closer to the goal line, and only one this season. Obviously a lot of that is situational, but the coaching staff may prefer a bigger back like Keaontay Ingram (6-0, 215) near the goal line. All five of Ingram's 2021 touchdowns whilst at USC came from 10 yards or closer.
- SEAHAWKS: Have allowd 100 total yards to a running back in every game this year. No lead running back with at least three catches has left a matchup with Seattle without 8 non-PPR/11 PPR points.
- SEAHAWKS: Allowed an 87.5% catch rate (tied for second-worst) and 8.46 YAC/reception (seventh-worst) to running backs this year. That's after they yielded an 86.4% catch rate (league-worst) and 8.58 YAC/reception (third-worst) in 2021.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Your glimmer of hope with Moore is that P.J. Walker runs a simple gameplan, avoids the Rams pass rush with his legs and looks for Moore as much as Mayfield did in the Panthers' past two games. If that happens, Moore should have his best game of the year. Will that happen? Probably not, which is why you're best off leaving Moore out of your lineup.
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Dave's Notebook:
- MOORE: We've already seen the Panthers begin to call Moore's number more lately (19 targets in his past two compared to 18 in his first three games). Unfortunately it hasn't led to a boost in his other stats -- he's had 11 or fewer PPR points in each of his past two.
- WALKER: New Panthers quarterback P.J. Walker threw seven targets at D.J. Moore in his one start last year for an ugly 4-24-0 stat line. That's not encouraging.
- WALKER: Has an NFL career 57% completion rate with a 1.6% TD rate. It's a far cry from the 64.7% completion rate and 8.2% TD rate he had in five XFL games. Walker's career numbers are not a meaningful improvement over Baker Mayfield's 2022 stats.
- RAMS: Are bottom-three in catch rate and YAC/receptions allowed to wide receivers. Rams are giving up 12.01 yards per catch to wideouts.
- RAMS: At least one receiver has 10 PPR points in each game against them. OK, fine, that's not special but it does set a mild expectation for Moore. You might like this stat better: the top receiver for each opponent until Week 5 had at least 24 PPR (and 14 non-PPR) points.
Sneaky Sleeper (Lineup Decisions)
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I wouldn't blame you if you laughed at this and moved on, but at least for DFS purposes, Anderson is in play as a sleeper. He's also not the worst option if you're in bye-week hell at receiver. If you're weighing him with Elijah Moore, Marvin Jones and DeVante Parker, you might as well take a chance on Anderson's upside.
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Dave's Notebook:
- WALKER: In Walker's lone start in 2021 he targeted Anderson six times for a 4-37-1 stat line. If you cobble together all of Walker's other playing time from 2021, Anderson led all Panthers with a 27.7% target share and an 8-95-1 collab. Half of the catches went for at least 15 yards.
- ANDERSON: Has been second on the team in target share this season with 17.6%. He also has a 48% catch rate, which isn't far from his catch rate with Walker last year ... but still higher than D.J. Moore's this year.
- RAMS: Of the 11 pass plays of 20-plus yards allowed this year, nine have gone to outside receivers. L.A. has also allowed a 69% catch rate, a 14.35 receiving average and 6.29 YAC/reception to outside wideouts this year. The catch rate and YAC/reception are bottom-3.
- ANDERSON: Has played 88% of his snaps out wide.
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
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It's all about the opportunity and the matchup for Henderson, who has a clear path to 15-plus touches. I'd keep expectations grounded because Malcolm Brown might swipe a touchdown, but assume the floor is set at 10 PPR points as at least one rusher has had that much against them in 4 of 5 games (Saints had two running backs with seven each). Last week the 49ers scored three touchdowns and had two running backs with 20 PPR points each. I'd rather go with Melvin Gordon and Eno Benjamin in PPR, but I'd take Henderson over Najee Harris, Ezekiel Elliott and Kareem Hunt in all formats. I'd take him over J.K. Dobbins in PPR too.
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Dave's Notebook:
- RAMS: 85 running back rushes this season ranks third-fewest in football. In their two wins, their running backs handled 20 carries or more. Los Angeles is a 10-point favorite.
- HENDERSON: Has averaged a not-horrible 4.06 yards per rush and actually leads the NFL in zero/negative-yard run rate (5.9%). Unfortunately he's outside of the top 40 in yards after contact per rush and avoided tackle rate on runs. Aside from the rushing average, his 2021 numbers were about the same.
- HENDERSON: As a receiver he's got an 80% catch rate, 5.67 yards per catch and a YAC/reception average of 6.58. Only the catch rate ranks top 12; the rest ranks top 20, which is below league average. His 2021 numbers were about the same.
- GOAL-LINE ISSUE: Malcolm Brown has played 10 snaps for the Rams over the past two weeks, four of which have been inside the 10. Henderson played one snap inside the 10 in those games.
- PANTHERS: Rank sixth in most Fantasy points allowed to running backs. They've let up 4.8 yards per carry (10th-most) and 8.4 yards per catch (eighth-most). The 17 rushes of 10-plus yards allowed also ranks bottom five.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sneaky Sleeper (Lineup Decicision)
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It would not be surprising to see the Chiefs play a ton of zone coverage in an effort to dare the Bills to run the ball. Buffalo, to this point, really hasn't fallen for that and keeps passing, but if the Chiefs pass rush starts to bug Josh Allen then Singletary could come up with some decent touches. It probably won't be enough to make Singletary a top rusher for the week, but he's on the cusp of being usable. I'd rather chance it with him than hope Najee Harris plops into the end zone or a Rams running back does something super.
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Dave's Notebook:
- SINGLETARY: Has played the Chiefs four times in the past two seasons and has single-digit Fantasy points in each game.
- CHIEFS: Have been smashed by Josh Jacobs (21-154-1) and Leonard Fournette (7-57-1 receiving with a rushing touchdown) in consecutive games.
- SINGLETARY: Had 15 touches in competitive games against the Dolphins and Ravens, but averaged 8.3 touches in blowout Bills wins. The Bills are three-point road favorites in what's expected to be a high-scoring matchup.
Sneaky Sleeper (Lineup Decisions)
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Valdes-Scantling is coming off his best game of the season (15 PPR points) and is looking for his first touchdown of the season. He has the third-most targets of any wideout without a touchdown this season (Smith-Schuster is second). In a game with a 53.5-point over/under, it's good to have players who could score, but it's even better to have those who scheme up well against the competition. I'd start him over Allen Lazard, Adam Thielen, Terry McLaurin and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
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Dave's Notebook:
- CHIEFS: I've written a bunch about how the Chiefs use specific receivers based on the coverage they see -- man coverage (Mecole Hardman) and zone coverage (JuJu Smith-Schuster). But Valdes-Scantling is the only wide receiver they have who has been equally solid against both coverages.
- VALDES-SCANTLING: Has a slightly higher target per route run rate (18.5%) and significantly higher receiving average (14.2) against zone coverage than man, plus his catch rate versus zone is 76.5%, much higher than versus man (46.2%).
- BILLS: Have been a zone-heavy squad for as long as Sean McDermott has been their coach. No surprise, they've played the third-highest percentage of zone snaps this season. They've also played zone at least 69.6% of snaps in three of their four games against the Bills since 2020 -- the one time they played less zone they lost by two touchdowns in the 2020 playoffs.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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Kudos to the Cowboys for sticking with their run game, but shame on them for not trying a more efficient runner (like, say, Tony Pollard). Elliott might be good for 10 PPR points, but don't expect too much more. I'd rather start Devin Singletary and Travis Etienne, and Pollard's potential on fewer carries makes him a better choice, too.
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Dave's Notebook:
- ELLIOTT: Has 81 or fewer total yards in every game this season. Has single-digit PPR points in 4 of 5 games. Has been below 4.0 yards per carry in 3 of his past 4 games.
- MATCHUP: Has not scored in 5 of his past 6 against the Eagles with only two with over 100 total yards.
- EAGLES: Since Week 2, the Eagles have yielded 3.78 yards per carry to running backs with only two touchdowns allowed. They've especially been great in yards after contact per carry (2.47, third-best) and in missed tackles on runs (nine, third-fewest).
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by
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If I thought the Broncos offensive line was capable of keeping Wilson clean (and Wilson was capable of not leaving clean pockets), I'd be more excited about starting him. But he's made too many mistakes and hasn't been nearly as productive. Tack on some rough playcalling (and potentially more rushing to take pressure off of Wilson), and he's no better than a low-end option this week. I'd rather start Geno Smith (that one's easy), Carson Wentz, Matthew Stafford and Jimmy Garoppolo.
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Dave's Noteook:
- WILSON: It takes two eyeballs to know things aren't right with Wilson. Last week I counted seven off-target throws (three to Jerry Jeudy), six plays where Wilson should have thrown to an open target but held the ball instead, and many, many moments where the Colts' pass rush was impacting Wilson's play.
- CHARGERS: Since Joey Bosa left in the first quarter of Week 3, the Chargers have allowed a 70.3% completion rate, 7.01 yards per pass attempt and six passing touchdowns against Trevor Lawrence, Davis Mills and Jacoby Brissett. Their pass rush pressure rate has slid to 28.7% (the season-long league-average is 32.2%).
- CHARGERS: Since Joey Bosa left in the first quarter of Week 3, the Chargers have allowed just one quarterback to post more than 17 Fantasy points.
- WILSON: Has had fewer than 17 Fantasy points in three of his past four starts.
