Week 1 was a rough one for our favorite breakout wide receiver candidates. Marvin Harrison Jr. caught just one pass for five yards in his debut, Drake London was barely better with two catches for 15 yards. Chris Olave'sSaints are still scoring on the Panthers, but he played no part with just two catches for 11 yards. Even Garrett Wilson's six for 60 is disappointing in light of his ADP and the fact that teammate Allen Lazard scored 26.9 PPR Fantasy points.
The first thing I want to say about these disappointments is possibly the most obvious: Do not panic. I'm not looking to sell low and I'm certainly not considering dropping any of these guys. Point two is more nuanced: You don't actually have to start all of them either. I'm sticking with Wilson and Olave, but Harrison and London are maybes in Week 2. They're both ranked between WR24 and WR30 in my initial Week 2 rankings, which is not a definite start or a sit.
Harrison is a rookie who only saw four targets on Kyler Murray's 31 attempts in his debut. I still feel very confident that he's going to be a must-start wide receiver for much of this year but I wouldn't mind seeing him prove something before I start him again. London's now on Year 3 of being more hope than substance and the hope that Kirk Cousins is going to be a big upgrade at QB looked unfounded in Week 1. The Steelers are a great defense though, so I'm still hopeful Week 2 will bring London's breakout.
I'd just like to see it first.
You always find all of my projections over at SportsLine.
69.9% -- Calvin Ridley posted a 69.9% air yards share in Week 1, second only to George Pickens. Ridley is the clear alpha there, let's just hope Will Levis can get him the ball.
110 -- Courtland Sutton's 110 unrealized air yards trailed only Ridley. The opportunity is there, the execution was not.
85% -- Jameson Williams played a career-high 85% of the Lions offensive snaps. He's a full-time football player and maybe a must-start wide receiver soon.
50% -- Half of Stefon Diggs' targets came inside the 10-yard line. That helps explain his aDOT and his TD rate
Shaheed was at the top of this list last week and turned five targets into 16 Fantasy points and a top-15 finish at wide receiver. Week 2 will present a bigger challenge against the Cowboys, but I'm really interested to see his target share with the offense playing a full competitive game. If he can stay close to 20% target share then Shaheed could become a must-start option.
Lockett was disrespected all offseason again and came out and played like the Seahawks' number one wide receiver in Week 1. View him as a boom/bust flex for now, but if he has another week as the team's top target earner, he'll move into WR3 territory.
Cooks saw seven targets in Week 1. That's an important number. He only had that many in five games last year, but he averaged 16 PPR Fantasy points in those five games. If he can start consistently earning seven targets per week, he may be a Fantasy starter again.
Mitchell only caught one pass for five yards, but he was wide open on a couple of misses from Anthony Richardson in Week 1. The fact that he earned a 26% target share and got that wide open in his first NFL game means you cannot leave him on the waiver wire. Of course, since the Colts only threw 19 passes in Week 1, you may not want to start Mitchell either. Add him and let's see what Week 2 looks like.
Both Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson saw seven targets in Week 1. With Puka Nacua on IR, there's a real chance for one of these wide receivers to become Fantasy relevant. Robinson is the add if you only have one roster spot, but in deeper leagues, we would like to add both and see who stands out in Week 2.
Kupp just saw 21 targets in Week 1, and gets to face a bad Cardinals defense with Puka Nacua on IR. Because Nacua's injury and Kupp's explosion happened on Sunday night, Week 2 pricing doesn't reflect reality, and Kupp is the eighth-highest-priced wide receiver. There's a decision to be made in tournaments, but in cash games, Kupp is the easy smash play.
Pittman's production didn't match his target share in Week 1, so I wouldn't expect him to be a popular play in Week 2. But give me a target hog against a team that just gave up a combined 203 receiving yards to A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. Expect 10 targets from Pittman and if he scores a touchdown I expect he'll top 20 PPR Fantasy points.
WR Preview
Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 2 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 2. Projected stats for all starting wide receivers are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
