kyle-pitts-falcons.jpg
USATSI

Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.

It's too early to be absolutely sure on which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.

We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Justin Jefferson). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.  

All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.

Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Thu, Dec 1 at 8:15 pm ET •
NE +4, O/U 43.5
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
BUF Buffalo • #26
Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ NE BUF -4 O/U 43.5
OPP VS RB
1st
PROJ PTS
10.6
RB RNK
30th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
552
REC
31
REYDS
226
TD
4
FPTS/G
11.7
The Patriots are second in Fantasy points allowed to running backs on the year. That makes the matchup tough on top of all the other obstacles Singletary has to deal with. I'd rather start Ezekiel Elliott, Rachaad White and Jamaal Williams.

Dave's Notebook:

  • SINGLETARY: Has 80-plus total yards in two straight and 4 of his past 6 games, but only above 90 yards twice in those six. He has had at least 14 touches in 5 of his past 6. 
  • SINGLETARY: Has 14 rushes inside the 10-yard line this season for Buffalo (actually tied for 10th best in football) with only three touchdowns. By comparison, Josh Allen has 10 rushes and three touchdowns with 28 pass attempts and eight passing scores. Allen, understandably, continues to cap Singletary's scoring potential. 
  • PATRIOTS: The two TDs allowed to the Bears RBs in Week 7 are the only touchdowns they've allowed on the year. They've held enemy running backs to 3.7 yards per carry on the season - and 2.4 yards per carry in their past four games. Dalvin Cook (nine PPR points) was their most recent victim.
  • PATRIOTS: No running back has more than 15 PPR points against them this year, and no RB has more than 9 PPR points against them in their past four games.  
  • HISTORY: Singletary smashed the Patriots in their playoff meeting last January (19 total touches, 94 total yards, two touchdowns) but has topped 50 yards only twice and scored once in five career regular-season meetings. 
Sneaky Sleeper (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
BUF Buffalo • #6
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ NE BUF -4 O/U 43.5
OPP VS WR
6th
PROJ PTS
7.9
WR RNK
46th
YTD Stats
REC
30
TAR
45
REYDS
315
TD
5
FPTS/G
9.6
McKenzie figures to stay involved in the Bills offense on two fronts: His speed forces any defense to alter its coverage, and the Bills' run game doesn't figure to get a ton of work against New England's dominant front (which is a huge difference from, as an example, their game plan for Week 11 against the Browns). And if the Bills are somehow trailing, McKenzie should run a slew of routes to help up his target share. I'm ready to trust McKenzie again as a flex over Diontae Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Cole Kmet.

Dave's Notebook:

  • LAST WEEK: McKenzie did a real good job getting himself open for Josh Allen when he wasn't the primary read (on half of his targets). He earned some extra throws thanks to his blazing speed and awareness of how the Lions covered Stefon Diggs and how often they blitzed Allen. McKenzie posted season-highs in snap rate (73%), target share (25.6%) and yards (96). He also had a run that might have gone to the house from 20 yards out if not for a bad block downfield. 
  • PATRIOTS: In their past four, the Patriots rank top-five in catch rate allowed to slot WRs, but they really haven't been tested much (only 14 targets). The 14.8 yards per catch allowed is bottom-10, and the 6.11 YAC/reception is bottom-six. These numbers have come down from earlier in the season when they were much more effective against slot guys. 
  • PATRIOTS: Have also been playing zone coverage at a consistent clip (about 65% per game over their past five). That's not like them as they have tailored game plans to their opponents in the past. They were torched playing that much zone coverage in the playoffs against Buffalo, so they might opt for more man coverage this week (especially since Allen has been a little less effective against it). The Pats played a lot of man coverage in their meeting with Buffalo last December ... and McKenzie crushed them. 
  • HISTORY: Replacing an injured Cole Beasley on the day after Christmas 2021, McKenzie caught 11 of 12 targets for 125 yards and a touchdown against the Patriots. He wasn't used nearly as much in their playoff meeting three weeks later, a blowout Bills win, but he did total 74 yards and caught three balls. 
Flex Starter in PPR (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
NE New England • #16
Age: 26 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs BUF BUF -4 O/U 43.5
OPP VS WR
21st
PROJ PTS
0
WR RNK
31st
YTD Stats
REC
47
TAR
62
REYDS
571
TD
3
FPTS/G
13.4
Expect a modest stat line from Meyers, the kind where he's good enough to start as a PPR flex but that's about it. You should at least like his target volume in his past games against the Bills along with the plus matchup. Expect 13 PPR points for Meyers, but less than 10 in non-PPR. I'd call him a safer start than Isaiah McKenzie, Adam Thielen and Darius Slayton.

Dave's Notebook:

  • LAST WEEK: Meyers got hurt and only played 16 snaps. On those snaps he was the Patriots' predominant slot receiver, a little more so than in previous weeks. 
  • SEASON: Meyers has been in the slot on at least 61% of his routes in each game this year. With Mac Jones at quarterback, Meyers has led the Patriots in target share (21.3%), catches (34) and yards (366) but is actually fifth in yards per catch (10.76) and YAC/reception (2.91). He's fourth among Pats wideouts in explosive play rate (16.0%). 
  • BILLS: In their past four they've seen 32 targets go to slot receivers, and they've collectively allowed a 24-275-1 stat line. The 24 receptions is the second-most allowed in that span and the 275 yards are sixth-most. Despite those stats, the Bills are moderately efficient on the numbers they've allowed (75% catch rate, 11.5 yards per catch and 4.29 YAC/reception, all about league average). They've simply seen slot receivers routinely get work against them; Bills slot cornerback Taron Johnson has allowed as many touchdowns this year (five) as in his three previous combined. 
  • HISTORY: Meyers has never scored on Buffalo (five games including playoffs) and has never had more than 13 PPR points in a game. This despite seeing eight targets in three of his past four against the Bills. 
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Dec 4 at 1:00 pm ET •
ATL +1, O/U 42
Possible Bust (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
PIT Pittsburgh • #14
Age: 21 • Experience: Rookie
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ ATL PIT -1 O/U 42
OPP VS WR
32nd
PROJ PTS
13.4
WR RNK
33rd
YTD Stats
REC
36
TAR
59
REYDS
510
TD
3
FPTS/G
9.9
Pickens is an intoxicating prospect who should be more productive than he's been. Some of that is because of his mistakes, some of it is because of his quarterback's mistakes. But what looked like a great matchup three weeks ago is now a little tougher. Put him in the flex category, but behind Zay Jones, Christian Watson and Josh Palmer (assuming Mike Williams is out).

Dave's Notebook:

  • PICKENS: Has led all Steelers receivers in yards (395), touchdowns (2), yards per catch (14.6), ADOT (13.0), explosive play rate (10.5%) and tackles avoided (three) with Kenny Pickett at quarterback. He's also been better than Diontae Johnson in catch rate (65.9%) and yards per route run (1.42) with Pickett. It's a matter of time before he sees a higher target share with Pickett, too. 
  • PICKENS: Had 18 and 8 PPR points in each of his past two games, but it very easily could have been 28 and 18 if not for an errant end-zone throw in Week 12 and some ugly drops in Weeks 11 and 12. In other words, we've come dangerously close to a big breakthrough for Pickens. 
  • FALCONS: Welcomed back top cornerback A.J. Terrell in Week 11. In their past two with Terrell, wide receivers are catching 72% of their targets but the defense ranks top-5 in yards per catch and overall YAC allowed with one score given up. Only Darnell Mooney had 10-plus PPR points (he had 12). 
Possible Bust (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
ATL Atlanta • #84
Age: 31 • Experience: 10 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs PIT PIT -1 O/U 42
OPP VS RB
16th
PROJ PTS
9.6
RB RNK
31st
YTD Stats
RUYDS
506
REC
11
REYDS
65
TD
5
FPTS/G
12
I don't love how Patterson isn't the Falcons' workhorse -- sharing with at least two other backs (and a running quarterback!) from week to week definitely has its drawbacks. But Atlanta remains committed to the run and the Steelers defense is in a tough spot playing on the road twice in the span of seven days. It's not a bad matchup. Patterson is bust-ish but has enough work near the goal line to have an edge in Fantasy lineups over Latavius Murray, D'Andre Swift and A.J. Dillon, but not quite over Isiah Pacheco or Brian Robinson.

Dave's Notebook:

  • SINCE HIS RETURN: Patterson scored twice in Week 9 and hasn't done much else over four games. There are some positives: His playing time has steadily increased over his past three games and his rushing average is up from 3.4 in his first two to 4.95 in his past two. Patterson has at least two receptions in each of his past two games also. 
  • LAST WEEK: Finally saw more than 12 touches, but it was against a tough Washington run defense (71 total yards, 10 PPR points). 
  • PATTERSON: Had two touches inside of 10 yards from the goal line in Week 12, which is two more than he had in Weeks 10 and 11 combined. Mariota, by comparison, has four in his past three. He's playing most of their snaps inside the 10 but not being force-fed like we'd want.
  • STEELERS: Have mostly struggled with running backs since T.J. Watt's return three weeks ago. Alvin Kamara was shut down in Week 10, then Samaje Perine scored three receiving touchdowns in Week 11 and Jonathan Taylor had nearly 100 total yards and found the end zone in Week 12. A running back has at least 13 PPR points in five of the Steelers' past six matchups.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Dec 4 at 1:00 pm ET •
BAL -8.5, O/U 38.5
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
DEN Denver • #28
Age: 33 • Experience: 10 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ BAL BAL -8.5 O/U 38.5
OPP VS RB
7th
PROJ PTS
9.4
RB RNK
28th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
358
REC
13
REYDS
70
TD
4
FPTS/G
11.4
It's a scary matchup for Murray, who should play a lot but not experience much of the efficiency he had in Week 12 or the touchdown jaunts he had before Week 12. I'd rather start Isiah Pacheco, Cordarrelle Patterson, Gus Edwards and Zonovan Knight.

Dave's Notebook:

  • MURRAY: Played great in his first game as the de facto workhorse for Denver, averaging 7.1 yards per carry on his way to 98 total yards against the Panthers. He played 82% of the snaps, was on the field for each of six snaps inside the 10 and 14 of 15 third- and fourth-down snaps. 
  • MURRAY: Has 10 or more PPR points in four of his past five, obviously including matchups where he had to share with Melvin Gordon. Touchdowns have been a factor -- he's scored in three of those five and have been held to under 75 total yards in every game until Week 12. 
  • RAVENS: In their past three with Roquan Smith in the middle of the defense, running backs have averaged 2.3 yards per carry and none have scored. No back accrued more than 30 yards on the ground! 
  • RAVENS: In their past three with Roquan Smith in the middle of the defense, running backs have averaged 11.1 yards per catch with a touchdown given up to JaMycal Hasty last week. In fact, Hasty sort of ballooned that average up on thanks to his wheel route touchdown. 
  • MURRAY: Has seen a target share under 8.0% in all but one game this season. It's not only hard to project a lot of targets for Murray, but it's unlikely he'll make a sizable impact as a receiver. 
  • It's a scary matchup for Murray, who should play a lot but not experience much of the efficiency he had in Week 12 or the touchdown jaunts he had before Week 12. I'd rather start Isiah Pacheco, Cordarrelle Patterson, Gus Edwards and Zonovan Knight. 
Flex Starter (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
DEN Denver • #14
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ BAL BAL -8.5 O/U 38.5
OPP VS WR
28th
PROJ PTS
12.3
WR RNK
26th
YTD Stats
REC
52
TAR
88
REYDS
688
TD
1
FPTS/G
11.6
Sutton should remain a high-target getter until Jerry Jeudy is back in the Broncos' mix. That keeps him in the fold as a modest flex with potential for close to 15 PPR points. That includes this week against the Ravens, particularly since it figures to be a matchup where Denver will be forced to abandon the run. I wouldn't count on him scoring, though. I'd flex Sutton over Allen Lazard and Ezekiel Elliott, but not over DeVonta Smith or Pat Freiermuth.

Dave's Notebook:

  • SUTTON: In the past three games Jerry Jeudy missed/got hurt early, Sutton has averaged 8.7 targets, 5.7 catches and 73.7 yards per game. He's seen 26 targets; the next-best Broncos pass-catcher is Kendall Hinton with 17 targets. There's no doubt who the top wideout is. 
  • SUTTON: Has three end-zone targets in his past three games including two last week. One of those was dropped. In fact, Sutton has a drop in each of his past three. 
  • FILM: Sutton isn't running past anybody, but he is getting open on comeback routes against zone coverage (his timing with Russell Wilson is pretty good). He's also bringing in a couple of contested catches against man coverage in his past three. 
  • RAVENS: In their past three games they've allowed a 76.6% catch rate, 36 receptions and 401 yards to wide receivers who line up wide. Baltimore ranks in the bottom-10 in all three of those categories. However, they're still efficient because they're only giving up 11.1 yards per catch (top-10) and 2.97 YAC/reception (top-12). 
  • RAVENS: Not surprisingly, the Ravens have played zone coverage on 81.7% of their snaps in their past three games against the Saints, Panthers and Jaguars. The only reason to think they'll move back to more man coverage this week is because Russell Wilson has been so terrible against it (74.3 QB rating, 41% completion rate). 
  • RAVENS: On the season, only six TDs have gone to wideouts lined up away from the formation, a number that includes Jamal Agnew's speed-out score last week, Jaylen Waddle's Week 2 screen and a pair of deep bombs where Tyreek Hill ran away from the defense. None of these specific plays line up with what Sutton's skill-set is now. 
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
BAL Baltimore • #35
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs DEN BAL -8.5 O/U 38.5
OPP VS RB
10th
PROJ PTS
9.9
RB RNK
23rd
YTD Stats
RUYDS
183
REC
0
REYDS
0
TD
3
FPTS/G
11.4
If you start Edwards, you're hoping he finds the end zone, which is obviously possible since he's averaging a touchdown every 14.3 carries in 2022. But you shouldn't expect much in the way of efficiency or receiving yards -- he hasn't caught a pass yet this year. Any running back with a 12-touch workload and a semblance of upside should be given the nod over Edwards. I'd rather use Cordarrelle Patterson, Zonovan Knight and Isiah Pacheco.

Dave's Notebook:

  • LAST WEEK: Came back to a surprising amount of work, handling 16 carries for 52 yards (3.25 yards per catch) with a score. The 50% of the snaps he played was a season-high. 
  • FILM: Edwards looked like a physical bully back, albeit one without speed. He had no burst off the snap and was slow to accelerate on the rare occasions his O-line opened a lane for him against the Jaguars. Of note, his last 11 carries went for 16 yards with a goal-line touchdown push and a fumble. 
  • BRONCOS: Since trading Bradley Chubb the defense did a great job shutting down Derrick Henry (67 total yards) but were walloped by Josh Jacobs (160 total yards) and D'Onta Foreman (113 rush yards). Specifically against the Raiders and Panthers, the Broncos allowed 4.4 yards per rush, seven runs of 10-plus yards, 1.71 yards before contact and missed 11 tackles on runs. However, Denver has not allowed a rushing score to a RB since the Chubb trade.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Dec 4 at 1:00 pm ET •
CHI +4, O/U 43.5
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
GB Green Bay • #13
Age: 27 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ CHI GB -4 O/U 43.5
OPP VS WR
16th
PROJ PTS
11
WR RNK
32nd
YTD Stats
REC
40
TAR
69
REYDS
553
TD
5
FPTS/G
12.5
There are too many factors hurting Lazard: The matchup is great but it could lead to the Packers not having to throw 30-plus times. Lazard's history against Chicago is touchdown-dependent. He's not even the best receiver on his own roster over the past three games. His quarterback is playing through multiple injuries. If you start Lazard, you're hoping he scores and becomes much more efficient than he's been, and you're probably hoping for the Bears offense to put up some points so that the Packers don't just pummel the Chicago defense with the run game. It's a lot to count on for Lazard, which is why I'd rather start Zay Jones, Michael Pittman and Christian Watson.

Dave's Notebook:

  • LAST WEEK: Lazard had one target from Aaron Rodgers after seeing 11 the game before. It's possible if not likely that was gameplan related -- Rodgers threw six targets to his running backs before leaving with injury against Philly. 
  • LAZARD: His catch rate with Rodgers has fallen to 50%, his ADOT is at 11.6 and he's seen one red-zone target in his past three, down from a 60% catch rate, a 13.36 ADOT and 10 red-zone targets with Rodgers in the Packers' first nine games. Christian Watson's breakout over the past three weeks has become a factor. 
  • BEARS: Gave up three touchdowns to Jets receivers last week catching passes from Mike White. The week before they allowed one score to a Falcons wideout. Chicago's defense has busted following trades of their two defensive stars and injuries to a number of their defensive secondary players. 
  • HISTORY: Lazard has a touchdown in each of his past three and four of his past five against Chicago. But it's been without a lot of yards, including in Week 2 when he caught 2 of 3 targets for 13 yards with the score. 
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
CHI Chicago • #85
Age: 23 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs GB GB -4 O/U 43.5
OPP VS TE
9th
PROJ PTS
9.4
TE RNK
8th
YTD Stats
REC
29
TAR
43
REYDS
336
TD
5
FPTS/G
7.8
Kmet should see a target increase with Darnell Mooney out. Pair that with the favorable matchup and likelihood that the Bears will have to throw to stay in the game, and he's a palatable top-10 Fantasy tight end who I'd start over Gerald Everett, Tyler Conklin and Hayden Hurst.

Dave's Notebook:

  • PAST TWO WEEKS: Obviously, a lack of red-zone and end-zone targets are a problem -- he's had one red-zone target in his past two games versus five red-zone and three end-zone targets in Weeks 8 through 10. But Kmet's average route depth (not to be confused with ADOT, which is route depth only when targeted), has shot up over his past two games to 8.59 compared to 4.16 in Weeks 8 through 10. 
  • LAST WEEK: Kmet had one target in the first two and a half quarters before Darnell Mooney left with injury. As soon as Mooney was out, Kmet became a factor, seeing five targets in the final 25 or so minutes of game clock. That actually represented 33.3% of the targets from Trevor Siemian and might be a harbinger of things to come. 
  • PACKERS: Shifted their secondary around after incurring some injuries and have become worse against tight ends for it. A tight end has scored on the Pack in four of their past five games, and a tight end has at least 10 half-PPR points in two of their past three. 
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Dec 4 at 1:00 pm ET •
DET +1, O/U 51.5
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
JAC Jacksonville • #16
Age: 23 • Experience: 2 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ DET JAC -1 O/U 51.5
OPP VS QB
32nd
PROJ PTS
21.4
QB RNK
7th
YTD Stats
PAYDS
2655
RUYDS
179
TD
19
INT
6
FPTS/G
19.8
The biggest risk to Lawrence's numbers in Week 13 is the Jacksonville ground game coming alive against the Lions. If they can run the ball, that'll obviously impact Lawrence's chances of a third-straight game with at least 24 Fantasy points. Nearly any other scenario should push Lawrence into some good numbers. He's worth starting over Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson and Tom Brady.

Dave's Notebook:

  • PAST THREE GAMES: Lawrence ranks top-10 among quarterbacks in completion rate (76.9%), EPA/dropback (0.29), and touchdowns (six) with no interceptions. He's been keeping his passes short and getting the ball out quickly. He's also averaged 36.0 passes per game in those three, which has helped him accumulate his numbers. 
  • LAWRENCE: Is truly at his best when he is not pressured, and he's rarely pressured. Jacksonville is fourth-best in pass rush pressure rate allowed, but it should also be mentioned that Lawrence has been second-fastest among qualifying quarterbacks at getting the ball out (2.53 seconds). 
  • LIONS: Rank 21st in pass rush pressure rate on the season (32.6%) but have ramped up to 39.7% over their past three games. They have eight sacks to show for it. It's a step in the right direction, but they still rank dead last in time allowed for QBs to throw (3.31 seconds in their past three, 3.01 on the season). 
  • LIONS: Why have the Lions allowed 22 or more Fantasy points to all but three quarterbacks this year? Because they're still bottom-three in yards per catch allowed (12.15) and are last in ADOT allowed by half a yard on average (9.26). Quarterbacks are succeeding farther downfield.
Flex Starter (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
JAC Jacksonville • #7
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ DET JAC -1 O/U 51.5
OPP VS WR
30th
PROJ PTS
10.8
WR RNK
30th
YTD Stats
REC
58
TAR
79
REYDS
562
TD
1
FPTS/G
12.4
With Lawrence trying to get the ball out of his hands quickly and Jones among his most reliable short- and mid-range targets, there's a pretty good expectation of 15 PPR points here. I wouldn't expect more, particularly since Jones has one touchdown all year, but he's definitely among the best PPR flexes you could start. I'd use him over Gabe Davis, Courtland Sutton and Adam Thielen.

Dave's Notebook:

  • JONES: Had 10 targets for the Jaguars going into their bye, then came out of it with 14 targets. It seems clear he's emerged as one of Trevor Lawrence's top two options in the passing game. Jones has at least 14 PPR points in each of those two games, and a floor of 10 PPR points in each of five games when he's seen at least nine throws come his way. 
  • FILM: Jones mainly lined up wide but ran a slew of routes to keep cornerbacks on their toes. He's got some sneaky speed to help him separate. In his past two games he's seen some tight-window throws from Lawrence including several deep shots. A bad drop late last week is the only thing holding him back from being considered a quality volume-driven possession receiver. 
  • PASSES OF 15 OR FEWER AIR YARDS: Jones is nearly tied for the team lead in targets and is in the lead in receptions on those throws. That shouldn't be surprising given his 7.86 ADOT. 
  • LIONS: Aren't so hot on shorter throws to receivers, giving up a 73.5% catch rate and 9.6 yards per grab to wideouts on passes of 15 or fewer Air Yards (both bottom-12). 
  • LIONS: Two wide receivers have each scored at least 10 non-PPR points against the Lions in each of their past two and in three of their past five games. 
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
DET Detroit • #32
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs JAC JAC -1 O/U 51.5
OPP VS RB
18th
PROJ PTS
12.9
RB RNK
30th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
292
REC
24
REYDS
186
TD
5
FPTS/G
13
Running backs who don't see a lot of work must be hyper-efficient in order to warrant Fantasy consideration, and Swift simply isn't close to that. He is at best a bye-week replacement running back until we can believe in his workload increasing. I'd rather start Gus Edwards, Latavius Murray or Kareem Hunt.

Dave's Notebook:

  • PAST THREE WEEKS: Has played no more than 34% of the snaps and has had between 7 and 9 touches per game. Swift has averaged 2.8 yards per carry and 5.3 yards per catch with two touchdowns (and nearly another score last week). 
  • FILM: Swift looks as fast as ever, but he's not consistently decisive in his runs and tends to move laterally instead of vertically when there isn't a clear lane. 
  • THE OBVIOUS: He doesn't touch the ball enough. It might be because he's playing through something and the team doesn't want to wear him down again. Remember, he opened the season seeing at least 51% of the snaps in Weeks 1 and 2 before getting hurt in Week 3 and missing three games. Oh, and he also rarely plays near the goal line because Jamaal Williams is a beast at converting touchdowns. 
  • JAGUARS: Have given up just 3.6 yards per carry to running backs in their past four games, but 8.4 yards per catch to them. Those stats would tend to favor Swift and his ability to catch. Swift had four catches last week on a season-high eight targets.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Dec 4 at 1:00 pm ET •
HOU +7, O/U 47
Possible bust (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
CLE Cleveland • #4
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ HOU CLE -7 O/U 47
OPP VS QB
3rd
PROJ PTS
25.5
QB RNK
12th
YTD Stats
PAYDS
0
RUYDS
0
TD
0
INT
0
FPTS/G
0
While it's a certainty that Watson would like to put up some numbers against his former team, the reality is that the Browns can win this game without Watson having to throw all over the place. I'd lower expectations to about 200 passing yards and a couple of touchdowns, enough for Watson to be good for your Fantasy team, but not great. I'd use him over Tom Brady, Jared Goff and Russell Wilson, but I like the upside better for Geno Smith, Mike White and Jimmy Garoppolo.

Dave's Notebook:

  • CAREER STATS: Just to refresh your memory, Watson has a career completion rate of 67.8% at 8.3 yards per pass attempt and a 5.9% TD rate. These are very, very good numbers. He's also averaged 5.7 rush attempts and 31.0 rush yards per game. Those are also welcomed numbers for Fantasy.
  • BROWNS: On the year have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game, which is exactly league average. Only three times all year has Kevin Stefanski ordered fewer than 30 passes per game, including zero times in their past three outings.
  • TEXANS: Only rank fourth in fewest Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks because they're the league-worst in rush defense. Offenses are averaging just 30.3 pass attempts per game against the Texans, who are about league average in total passing yards allowed (216.4 per game) and have yielded just 10 passing touchdowns. 
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Dec 4 at 1:00 pm ET •
MIN -3, O/U 44.5
Sneaky Sleeper (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
NYJ N.Y. Jets • #5
Age: 27 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ MIN MIN -3 O/U 44.5
OPP VS QB
24th
PROJ PTS
18
QB RNK
16th
YTD Stats
PAYDS
315
RUYDS
2
TD
3
INT
0
FPTS/G
30.8
The big worry with White is how he'll fare against tougher competition, but the Vikings shouldn't be considered a dangerous matchup. In fact, given how quarterbacks have done against them, it's not really that scary at all for White. Tack on a giant question mark at running back and the Jets will have to get a little creative and lean on their talented receiving corps. That's good for White. There's enough upside here to roll the dice on White as a starter over Jimmy Garoppolo, Deshaun Watson and, for this week, Tom Brady.

Dave's Notebook:

  • LAST WEEK: Not only did White get the ball out quickly and make good decisions, but he also beat the blitz on the rare occasions the Bears got near him, including when he hit Garrett Wilson in the middle of the field for a long catch-and-run touchdown. He ranked top-five among quarterbacks in Week 12 in completion rate (78.6%) and yards per attempt (11.25), but his passing ADOT of 5.75 was 30th out of 34 qualifiers. 
  • WHITE: Wasn't scared nor was bad when throwing deep last week -- he completed all four of his pass attempts of 16-plus Air Yards for 147 of his yards and two touchdowns. He'll be smart about his throws this week, but not shy. 
  • VIKINGS: Are 12th on the season in pass rush pressure rate (35%), a significantly more aggressive unit than, say, the Bears (26.3%). Minnesota's been doing it without blitzing, either -- they have the fifth-lowest blitz rate on the season (17.9%). The Vikings also consistently play zone coverage and rank second in zone coverage snaps this year (82.4%).
  • WHITE: Combining data from last year and this year, White is considerably better against zone coverage (95.5 QB rating) than man coverage (69.7). 
  • JETS: With Zach Wilson on the field, the Jets have allowed a pressure on 37.2% of their dropbacks. With Flacco or White, the Jets have allowed a pressure on 33.5% of their dropbacks, a nominal difference but an improvement nonetheless. 
  • VIKINGS: Have allowed at least 21 Fantasy points to 5 of the past 6 QBs they've seen. 
  • LAST YEAR: White followed up a fantastic debut with an injury that forced him from the game, then when he returned from that a week later he was decimated by a terrific Bills defense.
Start Him in PPR (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
NYJ N.Y. Jets • #35
Age: 21 • Experience: Rookie
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ MIN MIN -3 O/U 44.5
OPP VS RB
20th
PROJ PTS
10.6
RB RNK
25th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
69
REC
3
REYDS
34
TD
0
FPTS/G
13.3
Expect Knight to be the Jets' main running back, losing third-down plays to Ty Johnson and, potentially, occasional work to James Robinson. He has 15-touch potential in a good role in a matchup that isn't like last week's, but isn't impossible. I'd anoint Knight in PPR formats over both Commanders RBs and Cordarrelle Patterson, and in non-PPR over Gus Edwards, Latavius Murray and D'Andre Swift.

Dave's Notebook:

  • LAST WEEK: Knight played on 69% of the snaps for the Jets after Michael Carter got hurt, but not on any of their third or fourth down plays. For the game, the Jets played three snaps inside the 10-yard line; Knight was on the field for two of them (the one he wasn't was a third-down snap). 
  • FILM: Knight was a decisive runner perfect for outside runs in the Jets' scheme. He had some explosiveness and speed to him, and he was a load to bring down. If there's a nitpick, it's that his vision wasn't always great and he was slow to react when defenders were in his sight. Knight did well with his receptions, a key part considering who the Jets quarterback is. 
  • VIKINGS: Have allowed four touchdowns to running backs in their past three games (three from one yard out), but only 3.8 yards per rush in those games. Minnesota has been much worse defending the pass against running backs, allowing an 87% catch rate, 11.1 yards per catch and a gaudy 11.65 YAC/reception to RBs in those past three. Honestly, the Vikings' woes against pass-catching RBs have been consistent all season long. 
  • MIKE WHITE: 25% of the QB's targets last week went to Jets running backs, with 5 of 7 coming on first and second downs, which are downs we're likely to see Knight play on.
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
MIN Minnesota • #19
Age: 32 • Experience: 9 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs NYJ MIN -3 O/U 44.5
OPP VS WR
2nd
PROJ PTS
12.7
WR RNK
35th
YTD Stats
REC
54
TAR
77
REYDS
553
TD
3
FPTS/G
11.8
If you're looking for 15 PPR points from Thielen this week, you better hope he scores again. He hasn't scored in consecutive games yet this year. The Jets secondary is tough and their pass rush figures to complicate the issue for Kirk Cousins, which might buy Thielen some receptions but not much else. He could land at 13 PPR points, which makes him a decent PPR flex (I'd start him over Allen Lazard), but I'd rather go with Michael Pittman, Christian Watson and Zay Jones.

Dave's Notebook:

  • LAST WEEK: After struggling with a high ADOT since T.J. Hockenson's arrival, Thielen ran much shorter routes as proven by his 4.0 ADOT. He saw more targets that way as Cousins used Thielen as a short-range option to negate the pass rush. It wasn't a pretty collection of 61 yards for Thielen, but the 10 targets and nine grabs were great, along with the red-zone touchdown. 
  • JETS: Rank top-10 in just about every single metric on passes to receivers inside of 15 Air Yards. The only thing they don't do well is hold off receptions themselves, giving up a 10th-worst 71.6% catch rate. And FYI, New York is equally dangerous on throws to wideouts that travel farther than 15 Air Yards. 
  • JETS: Are top-five in Fantasy points allowed to all receivers. Of the dozen wideouts with at least six targets against them this season, five have 15-plus PPR points. 
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Dec 4 at 1:00 pm ET •
PHI -5.5, O/U 44.5
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
TEN Tennessee • #81
Age: 28 • Experience: 7 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ PHI PHI -5 O/U 44.5
OPP VS TE
6th
PROJ PTS
5.8
TE RNK
16th
YTD Stats
REC
24
TAR
33
REYDS
257
TD
2
FPTS/G
5.6
Hooper doesn't get enough volume to be anything more than a low-end touchdown-or-bust tight end in Week 13. You're much more likely to get a better scoring output from Tyler Conklin, Hayden Hurst or Foster Moreau.

Dave's Notebook:

  • HOOPER: In his past three games with Tannehill, he's seen three red-zone targets, two end zone targets and scored twice. That's not too bad considering the minimal target volume Hooper's had in those games (15 total), but it's that minimal target volume that's held him to under 45 receiving yards in each contest. In fact if you took away his Week 11 touchdowns, Hooper would have scored between 6 and 9 PPR points in each game. Not nice. 
  • EAGLES: Only two tight ends have 8.5 or more half-PPR points against the Eagles this year. Scale the scoring to full PPR, and a tight end has not had more than nine points in each of the past five against Philly. 
Flex Starter (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
PHI Philadelphia • #6
Age: 24 • Experience: 2 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs TEN PHI -5 O/U 44.5
OPP VS WR
29th
PROJ PTS
12
WR RNK
22nd
YTD Stats
REC
56
TAR
79
REYDS
609
TD
3
FPTS/G
12.1
If you've been starting Smith, you deserve a hug. Then, get ready to consider starting him again. His target volume remains attractive, and a tough matchup ahead for the Eagles running game could put more numbers in Smith's future. It's juuust enough to keep him in as at least a high-upside flex. I'd start him over Courtland Sutton, Michael Pittman and Zay Jones.

Dave's Notebook:

  • SMITH: We've been saying for weeks that Smith has too much potential to get benched in Fantasy, but the reality is that he has zero games with 15-plus PPR points since his Week 7 bye -- a five-week skid. Making the numbers worse is that he's seen eight-plus targets in four of those five games. Smith's definitely getting opportunities. 
  • PAST FIVE: Smith's ADOT has been pretty low -- under 10.0 in four of the five -- and he has seen exactly zero end-zone targets (four red-zone targets). And for a receiver who's supposed to be explosive, Smith had four catches good for 16-plus yards in those five games with none good for more than 24. One touchdown in those five is tough to read. 
  • TITANS: If there's a silver lining, it's the matchup. Tennessee has allowed at least one score to a wideout in four straight games and all but two games this year. They've been particularly hurt by high-target receivers -- 4 of the past 5 wideouts with at least eight targets have brought back at least 12 PPR points. 
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Dec 4 at 1:00 pm ET •
NYG +2.5, O/U 40.5
Sit Them (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
WAS Washington • #24
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ NYG WAS -2.5 O/U 40.5
OPP VS RB
14th
PROJ PTS
11
RB RNK
27th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
476
REC
40
REYDS
306
TD
5
FPTS/G
12.4
Starting either Commanders RB means taking a leap of faith. With Gibson, you're hoping he rebounds and sees over 16 touches like he averaged in Weeks 9 through 11. With Robinson, you're hoping he not only keeps a grip on the rushing workload, but that his rushing average continues to ascend. If any back has an edge in non-PPR, it's Robinson because he's more likely to work short-yardage situations. The edge in PPR would normally go to Gibson because of his receiving prowess, but we just don't know how healthy he is. You're better off sitting both Commanders RBs for Cordarrelle Patterson, Isiah Pacheco and Gus Edwards.
WAS Washington • #8
Age: 23 • Experience: Rookie
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ NYG WAS -2.5 O/U 40.5
OPP VS RB
14th
PROJ PTS
9.7
RB RNK
24th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
467
REC
6
REYDS
27
TD
3
FPTS/G
9.3
Starting either Commanders RB means taking a leap of faith. With Gibson, you're hoping he rebounds and sees over 16 touches like he averaged in Weeks 9 through 11. With Robinson, you're hoping he not only keeps a grip on the rushing workload, but that his rushing average continues to ascend. If any back has an edge in non-PPR, it's Robinson because he's more likely to work short-yardage situations. The edge in PPR would normally go to Gibson because of his receiving prowess, but we just don't know how healthy he is. You're better off sitting both Commanders RBs for Cordarrelle Patterson, Isiah Pacheco and Gus Edwards.

Dave's Notebook:

  • EFFICIENCY: In the past four weeks, Robinson has sported a better rushing average three times, albeit barely until Week 12. The one time Gibson had a better rushing average, it was by 0.2 yards per carry against Houston. Washington has to have realized neither back separated from the other -- until last week. 
  • LAST WEEK: Robinson didn't really separate from Gibson until the second half when he popped off a 21-yard jaunt off left end, then added 18 more yards on his next three carries. Those runs propelled Robinson to his 5.8-yard rushing average, which bested Gibson's 3.6-yard average. A foot injury combined with a positive game script, a wet field, and Robinson's strong running all may have contributed to Gibson's lack of work. 
  • COMMANDERS: It's premature to believe Robinson has suddenly unseated Gibson as the main running back, but if Gibson is at less than 100 percent then we should see Robinson handle more work this week, particularly on running downs like we've seen a good amount of lately. Just note that it's not promised this will happen. 
  • GIANTS: Have seen their run defense bottom out in their past two games, giving up five touchdowns (four to the Lions!) and 4.6 yards per carry. No team has seen more RB carries in the past two weeks than the Giants (tied with the Broncos). Also, a RB has had at least 11 PPR points against the G-Men in six straight games. 
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Dec 4 at 4:05 pm ET •
SF -4, O/U 46.5
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
MIA Miami • #1
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ SF SF -4 O/U 46.5
OPP VS QB
5th
PROJ PTS
17.4
QB RNK
6th
YTD Stats
PAYDS
2564
RUYDS
35
TD
19
INT
3
FPTS/G
23.7
Heading into San Francisco with a depleted offensive line isn't ideal for Tagovailoa, but knowing he's likely to see a lot of familiar coverage and paired with a playcaller who has a lot of experience practicing against said coverage salvages what is otherwise a dangerous outing. Oh, and having a pair of speedy stud receivers help, too. There's too much upside to consider benching Tagovailoa unless you've got a quarterback ticketed for a potential high-scoring shootout. The only quarterbacks I'd consider over Tagovailoa are pretty obvious: Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts.

Dave's Notebook:

  • LAST WEEK: Snapped his three-game streak of throwing three touchdowns when he only needed to toss one in effectively two and a half quarters of play. Tagovailoa sat out the last 22 minutes of game clock against the Texans. 
  • DEEP PASSES: The 49ers have actually been pretty good at defending deep targets this year, allowing a 40% catch rate on throws of 20-plus Air Yards. The 33.3 yards per catch allowed is actually better than league average. And they've been tried -- only four teams have seen opponents throw more 20-plus Air Yard passes against them than the 30 San Francisco's seen. A heavy dose of zone coverage helps this cause.  
  • 49ERS: The only games this year when quarterbacks found 20-plus points against the Niners came when their defense was missing multiple starters and/or they were playing Patrick Mahomes. Only four quarterbacks have totaled two or more scores against them all year. They're not among the league leaders in pass rush pressure rate (34.1%), but they are top-10 in sacks with 33 this year. It's not hyperbole to say this is Tagovailoa's toughest matchup so far this year. 
  • TAGOVAILOA: Has a much lower TD rate against zone coverage than man coverage (4.1% to 13.3%) but has a notably higher passing average against zone coverage than man coverage (9.68 to 7.84). He's also been effective when throwing from out of the pocket (72% completion rate, 6.4 yards per attempt, 9.3% TD rate), which he may have to do a lot of with left tackle Terron Armstead not playing. 
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
MIA Miami • #23
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ SF SF -4 O/U 46.5
OPP VS RB
2nd
PROJ PTS
12.2
RB RNK
23rd
YTD Stats
RUYDS
677
REC
16
REYDS
149
TD
5
FPTS/G
11.3
There's a phenomenon in the NFL where a defensive playcaller returns to play against his former team -- they almost always beat them. That's not exactly the case here, but it's plenty obvious that former 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel's run offense in Miami is very, very similar to what he ran in San Francisco. The 49ers should be more than ready to handle Wilson. I'd rather start Ezekiel Elliott, Jamaal Williams, Zonovan Knight and Gus Edwards.

Dave's Notebook:

  • LAST WEEK: Wilson looked nothing like his prior two games with the Dolphins as he struggled to gain ground against the lowly Texans. He had three runs longer than three yards and zero runs of 10 or more yards. A short-yardage touchdown saved him from having a terrible game. 
  • MOSTERT: Wilson had been splitting reps with Raheem Mostert until last week when Mostert sat out. Mostert is expected to play this week. They've only played one game together where both were healthy -- Mostert had nine carries, Wilson had nine carries and three catches. 
  • 49ERS: Have held enemy rushers to 3.2 yards per carry on the season with just five rushing touchdowns allowed. Only four runners have notched 10 or more non-PPR points, and only two have put up 15 or more PPR points. Alvin Kamara would have had only 10 PPR points last week if not for two fumbles he lost. That's an example of how good this unit is. 
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Dec 4 at 4:05 pm ET •
LAR +7.5, O/U 41.5
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
SEA Seattle • #7
Age: 32 • Experience: 10 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ LAR SEA -7.5 O/U 41
OPP VS QB
10th
PROJ PTS
19.8
QB RNK
8th
YTD Stats
PAYDS
2802
RUYDS
240
TD
20
INT
5
FPTS/G
21.8
The Cinderella of the 2022 Fantasy season should still get an invite to your lineup in Week 13. His deep passing has been excellent and he'll have a little more time to get those rockets fired off with the Rams' pass rush muted. Pencil him in for another 22-point Fantasy game. Smith is a safe start over Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson and Tom Brady.

Dave's Notebook:

  • SMITH: Notched his fourth straight game with at least 22 Fantasy points last week against the Raiders. It was his third straight with at least 275 yards passing and fourth straight with at least 22 yards rushing. The dude is amazing. 
  • AARON DONALD: Won't play this week, which is a massive loss. To quantify how important he is to the Rams, 40 of the team's 114 pressures this year came from Donald (35%). The next highest? Leonard Floyd with 26 pressures. No one else on the team has more than 10. 
  • SMITH: Is at his worst when he's pressured, which doesn't figure to be the case much this week. 
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Dec 4 at 4:25 pm ET •
CIN +2, O/U 52.5
Start Him in PPR (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
KC Kansas City • #9
Age: 26 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ CIN KC -2 O/U 52.5
OPP VS WR
5th
PROJ PTS
13.5
WR RNK
25th
YTD Stats
REC
49
TAR
67
REYDS
653
TD
2
FPTS/G
12.4
If you take the leap of faith that Smith-Schuster will play his normal allotment of snaps, he should be at least serviceable, even if he's in the slot more. He's capable of beating zone coverage and should command more targets because of the matchup (Cincy's run defense is pretty good, plus the Chiefs throw a lot anyway). I'll take the chance on him in PPR over DeVonta Smith, Michael Pittman and Adam Thielen.

Dave's Notebook:

  • LAST WEEK: After playing out wide for much of his three-game breakout starting in Week 6, Smith-Schuster played 68% of his 28 snaps in the slot. It might have been because the Chiefs didn't have a reliable slot receiver for the game (Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman were both sidelined and Skyy Moore wasn't ready to command that role fully). It also should be mentioned: Smith-Schuster didn't look uncomfortable or play tentatively, but his 28 snaps were clearly a sign of him being eased back into action after suffering a serious concussion. 
  • THIS WEEK: It's anyone's guess how Smith-Schuster will be deployed. If I felt better about him playing outside more, I'd be a fan. But if the Chiefs don't have a workable option in the slot, Smith-Schuster might have to be the man there. He has not been at his best as a slot receiver with Kansas City. 
  • BENGALS: Haven't been great against slot receivers all year, allowing an 80.3% catch rate and 12.5 yards per catch (both bottom-10). They've also been reliably playing zone coverage in the three games since top cornerback Chidobe Awuzie got hurt. 
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Dec 4 at 4:25 pm ET •
LV +1.5, O/U 50.5
Sneaky Sleeper (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
LAC L.A. Chargers • #1
Age: 29 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ LV LAC -1.5 O/U 50.5
OPP VS WR
19th
PROJ PTS
9.1
WR RNK
NR
YTD Stats
REC
38
TAR
51
REYDS
452
TD
3
FPTS/G
9
Make no mistake, Keenan Allen is still the best bet in this offense. But if Herbert is keeping his throws short, Carter's the guy more likely to benefit than Palmer. Where things could get dicey is near the end zone -- I wouldn't count on Carter scoring again and Palmer might since he's a bigger body. I'd rather start Nico Collins, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Diontae Johnson over Palmer, and I'd take the chance on Carter over those three and Palmer in full PPR.

Dave's Notebook:

  • LAST WEEK: Carter assumed a role as an outside receiver for the second straight week and came up with a big game against a Cardinals pass defense that's terrible on short throws and very good against longer throws. That specific trait of Arizona worked against Palmer, who also was mostly an outside receiver but averaged over 11.0 yards per route run and had a higher ADOT than anyone on the Bolts. 
  • RAIDERS: Are just as bad as the Cardinals on passes thrown 15 or fewer Air Yards, but are also awful against deeper throws (16-plus Air Yards). The Chargers, who throw at a higher rate than any other team in the league besides Tampa Bay, should have success on short or long throws. 
  • HERBERT: Doesn't have a game this year with a passing ADOT higher than 8.1. He's averaging 6.12 Air Yards per target, which ranks 29th among passers with at least 200 attempts this season. It's unlikely that trend changes this week, especially if Herbert has to get the ball out quickly behind a depleted offensive line. 
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Sun, Dec 4 at 8:20 pm ET •
DAL -11, O/U 43.5
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
IND Indianapolis • #11
Age: 25 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ DAL DAL -11 O/U 43.5
OPP VS WR
12th
PROJ PTS
11.8
WR RNK
19th
YTD Stats
REC
74
TAR
103
REYDS
739
TD
2
FPTS/G
14.4
Pittman is a borderline lock to keep up his string of games with 12-plus PPR points, but he's got a ceiling significantly higher because the Colts figure to throw a lot and the Cowboys are pretty willing to let offenses connect on shorter throws. I'd start him in PPR over DeVonta Smith and Allen Lazard, and in non-PPR over JuJu Smith-Schuster and Courtland Sutton.

Dave's Notebook:

  • LAST WEEK: Was only atypical for Pittman because he scored and saw 11 targets, his highest total in his past six games. He was otherwise the same receiver we've seen all year, running short- and intermediate routes as a contested-catch beast for his senior-level quarterback. 
  • PITTMAN: Has just seven red-zone and four end-zone targets on the season, which is actually stunning not because he's expected to have more of them but because the Colts are better than league average in pass attempts in the red zone and inside the 10-yard line. 
  • PITTMAN: Does have seven-plus targets in all but two games this year and has one of the league's lowest ADOTs at 6.53. 
  • COWBOYS: Have allowed 15-plus PPR points to 5 of 9 WRs who have had at least seven targets against them. 
  • COWBOYS: Are efficient on targets inside of 15 Air Yards to wide receivers (8.5 yards per catch allowed) except when it comes to catch rate -- they're fifth-worst at 75.8%. They've only defensed 20 balls on such throws, lowest in the league. 
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Mon, Dec 5 at 8:15 pm ET •
TB -3.5, O/U 40.5
Possible Bust (Lineup Decisions)
Projections powered by Sportsline
NO New Orleans • #41
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ TB TB -3.5 O/U 40.5
OPP VS RB
3rd
PROJ PTS
15.3
RB RNK
18th
YTD Stats
RUYDS
524
REC
49
REYDS
422
TD
3
FPTS/G
15.4
Kamara has been saved by his work in the passing game, but even that's not as strong as it once was. It would make so much sense for the Saints to lean on Kamara as a check-down option against the Bucs' zone-heavy defense, but they've faced matchups like that before this season (including against the Bucs in Week 2!) and they haven't done it. Sitting Kamara takes some guts but if you've got capable backs with 15-touch potential like Rachaad White and Ezekiel Elliott, you can do it. There's more upside in using Christian Watson or Zay Jones in PPR as flexes than Kamara, too.

Dave's Notebook:

  • LAST WEEK: Saw his playing time cut thanks to Mark Ingram coming back. Kamara's 67% snap rate was his second-lowest of the season. 
  • KAMARA: Has scored 12 or fewer PPR points in each of his past four games. To be fair, these were matchups against the Ravens, Steelers, Rams and 49ers, some very tough defenses. And, still being fair, they all came with the Saints offensive line missing multiple starters, a problem that won't be completely fixed this week as center Erik McCoy is still on IR and rookie left tackle Trevor Penning is behind the learning curve. 
  • PAST FIVE: Kamara has averaged 3.5 yards per carry or worse. 
  • BUCCANEERS: Only three rival rushers have had 90-plus total yards against them this year, and only four running backs have run for a touchdown on the Bucs in 2022. It's one of the best run defenses by any measure. 
  • HISTORY: Kamara hasn't posted more than 16 PPR points in each of his past three against the Buccaneers, including a dreadful 31-total-yard scoreless effort at Tampa Bay last December (a game the Saints won!).