Injuries seem to come in bunches. The NBA has been hit hard over the past several days with news of key players out for extended stretches – the headliner being Ja Morant's season-ending shoulder tear. We also have Tyrese Haliburton, Chris Paul, Cade Cunningham and Jakob Poeltl dealing with significant injuries. How should you proceed in your fantasy leagues?
Ja Morant done for the year
Morant was dealing with right shoulder soreness following Friday's win over the Lakers. Though it seemed like the issue was minor, an MRI revealed a labral tear. Surgery was required, and the star point guard will remain sidelined for the rest of the year. He played just nine games, starting the year late due to suspension, and averaged 25.1 points, 8.1 assists and 5.6 rebounds.
We've already seen how things should generally play out since Morant has missed most of the year. However, much of that time came with Marcus Smart also sidelined. Ironically, he left Thursday's win over the Mavericks early due to a hand injury, and he's set for an MRI. Smart's past three performances have been strong, with 25.7 points on 52/46/70 shooting, 4.7 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 2.0 assists. Assuming he's not going to miss extended time himself, he's expected to take on more usage in Morant's absence.
The situation should again mean increased usage for Jaren Jackson and Desmond Bane. We could be entering a sell-high period with the duo, plus Smart. Memphis is 13th in the Western Conference, sitting at 14-23 and 3.5 games behind 12th-place Golden State. Could they go on a run and make the Play In? Possibly. But I want to bet against that since they've played poorly without Morant. It makes more sense for Memphis to pull the plug as we approach April since the organization owns their pick for the upcoming draft and could use this as an opportunity to bolster their roster with capable young talent.
Over the past two games with Morant out, we've also seen increased minutes for Vince Williams, Ziaire Williams, John Konchar and David Roddy. Each player has their own pluses and minuses, but none are must-add options. They all average 0.8 fantasy points per minute or worse, which generally means they consistently need 30-plus minutes to sniff fantasy relevance, even in category leagues. If the tank is on later in the year, there could be more usage for that crew and others, but it's not easy to gauge who exactly would be worth a stash in standard leagues.
Tyrese Haliburton out for two-plus weeks
Fans and fantasy managers expected the worst when Haliburton needed to be carried off the floor during Monday's win over the Celtics. However, we got relatively good news when it was revealed the point guard is just dealing with a Grade 1 hamstring strain. He'll be re-evaluated in two weeks, but don't be surprised if he's out for closer to a month.
Coach Rick Carlisle started Andrew Nembhard for the second half of Monday's game, but he also dealt with foul trouble and was limited to 12 minutes. Meanwhile, T.J. McConnell played 25 minutes and posted 12 points, seven assists, four rebounds and two steals. It's possible Carlisle goes with Nembhard again to begin Wednesday's game against the Wizards, but McConnell is the higher-upside fantasy option. With Haliburton off the court, Nembhard posts 1.0 fantasy points per minute compared to McConnell's 1.4 FP/min. McConnell is a must-add player in almost every fantasy format, while Nembhard is still a good waiver wire option but may only really pay off in 14-team leagues.
We could also see more opportunities for Bennedict Mathurin and Bruce Brown. Both have been a bit disappointing this year but may see increased usage with Haliburton out. Mathurin is playing well lately (18.8 PPG on 57/44/78 shooting over his past eight games) and sees a 6.5% usage spike with Haliburton off. Brown is working past a knee injury right now but sees plus-5.4% usage with Haliburton off.
Cade Cunningham out at least one week
You might not realize it from looking at Detroit's record, but Cunningham hadn't missed a game all year until Tuesday's loss to Sacramento. A strained knee forced him to exit Sunday's loss to the Nuggets, and an MRI determined that he'll need to be out at least seven days. There's no reason for the Pistons to rush him back, though, so don't be surprised if he's closer to 10 days or even two weeks.
I'm expecting horrific basketball for the duration of Cunningham's absence. Detroit is -19.8 per 100 possessions with him off the floor, which is the kind of number you need to hide from your children. Killian Hayes and Jaden Ivey started in the backcourt Tuesday. Hayes was awful, posting four points on four shots, seven assists, four rebounds and one steal but six turnovers. Ivey played well, recording 22 points on 17 shots, six assists, five rebounds and two steals (four turnovers). Alec Burks had 16 points off the bench in 20 minutes, and Marcus Sasser was a little more involved than usual with two points on four shots, four assists, two rebounds, one steal and one block in 19 minutes.
If you're in a weekly waiver claim league, you might not be able to do much with Cunningham potentially coming back within seven days. But managers should look into adding Ivey and Hayes. This is an especially big moment for Ivey to prove he's worthy of real starter's minutes, while Hayes can be a fine source of assists and steals. Burks and Sasser are only potential deep-league adds.
Chris Paul breaks hand
Paul fractured his left hand during Friday's win over the Pistons. After undergoing surgery, CP3 will be re-evaluated in three weeks. But like most other players, he'll probably return days to weeks later than his re-evaluation date. Don't be shocked if the veteran is out past the All-Star break.
Paul is having a fine season for the Warriors, averaging 8.9 points on 42/36/83 shooting, 7.2 assists, 3.8 rebounds and 1.1 steals in 27.6 minutes. However, his on-off numbers paint him as one of the most valuable players on the team. Warriors lineups featuring Paul but with Andrew Wiggins on the bench are at +10.6 per 100 possessions – an exceptionally high number on a big sample (1,048 possessions) for a team that's two games below .500.
Interestingly, no one sees more than a 1.8% usage increase (Wiggins) with CP3 off the floor. Most players see a decrease in usage, highlighting how fantastic Paul still is as a floor general and distributing point guard. CP3 off the court leads to -4.1% USG for Draymond Green and -5.2% USG for Jonathan Kuminga.
Golden State got smoked in their first game since Paul's injury, dropping a game at home to the Raptors 133-118. Steph Curry was the only player who saw 30 minutes, so it's not easy to draw any big conclusions. But Brandin Podziemski is an obvious candidate for more opportunity, while Moses Moody notably dropped 21 points in 22 minutes, but it was on unreasonably hot shooting (7-9 FG, 4-6 3Pt, 3-3 FT). Managers should at least keep an eye on him in deeper formats.
But of course, much of this gets more complicated when Draymond Green returns. That appears to be sooner than later, as he was a full participant in Tuesday's practice. A return sometime next week seems likely. Trayce Jackson-Davis, Jonathan Kuminga and Kevon Looney are all candidates to lose minutes when Green is back. Coach Steve Kerr is grasping for straws, so it's difficult to tell who will get yanked back.
Jakob Poeltl out with significant ankle sprain
The update from the Raptors on Poeltl's sprained ankle wasn't encouraging. He'll be re-evaluated in two weeks but is deemed out indefinitely. That could mean almost anything, so managers rostering the center should place him on IR and prepare for an extended absence.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but it appears to be Thaddeus Young time. He started Poeltl's first absence Tuesday in the loss to the Lakers. More surprisingly, it wasn't just a charity start. He played 29 minutes! Young dropped 10 points on nine shots, five rebounds, four assists, three steals and a block. We also had 14 minutes from Chris Boucher off the bench and 10 minutes from Jontay Porter, who the Grizzlies once deemed day-to-day for an entire season.
I'm suspicious of the 35-year-old Young. This was just the second game all season that he's played double-digit minutes. But he started nine games last year to decent results, averaging 9.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.7 steals in 27.4 minutes. Managers in 12-team leagues should explore adding him, at least to see what happens. He's practically must-roster in 16-team formats given what we've seen in the past and the indefinite absence of Poeltl.
