The combination of the Super Two "deadline," and the rule limiting teams to 13 pitchers on their active rosters meant that the past few days have seen a flurry of top prospect call-ups. Scott White broke down what to expect from Riley Greene, Alex Kirilloff, C.J. Abrams, and the rest Monday morning, but the most exciting of the bunch, at least in my eyes, was Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz.
Before the season, I made a lofty comp for Cruz: Aaron Judge. I'm not saying Cruz is going to challenge for the NL MVP this season, or anything, but I couldn't get the Judge comp out of my head all spring. Like Judge, looking at the box score just doesn't quite capture the experience of seeing him in action, especially based on their minor-league numbers – Cruz has put up a decent .275/.341/.458 line in the minors, eerily similar to Judge's .270/.365/.450 line in his time in the minors.
Cruz is practically Judge-ian in stature, too, standing 6-foot-7, making him the tallest shortstop in major-league history. And with that huge frame comes similar raw power – his 118.2 mph max exit velocity in just nine plate appearances was the 11th highest in baseball last season. One thing Cruz has on Judge is speed, however – he also has 33 steals in 159 games between Double-A and Triple-A.
Cruz is capable of feats few other players in the league are capable of, and he put the whole package on display in his season debut Monday against the Cubs. In just the first five innings of the game, in fact, he had the hardest-hit ball, the fastest-thrown ball, and the fastest sprint speed of any Pirates player this season. And, you know, for the things Fantasy players actually care about, he went 2 for 5 with a double, four RBI, and two runs scored.
It's not unreasonable to expect some growing pains for Cruz, like we've seen from the likes of Jarred Kelenic, Jo Adell, and other top prospects in recent years. However, Cruz has legitimately elite tools with an improving feel for the game, and the upside is obvious. You should always be willing to bet on upside, which makes Cruz a must-roster player in all formats anywhere he is available.
Here are the other players I'm considering adding based on Monday's action:
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The Red Sox handling of Duran has been kind of baffling this season. He's appeared in just eight games at the major-league level, with his most recent five marking the only time he's appeared in more than two in a row. However, he has batted in the leadoff spot in every game he has played in to date, so clearly they think he's bringing something to the table. Hopefully Monday's game was the beginning of the end of his back-and-forth trips to Triple-A after he went 2 for 3 with a walk, a double, and a couple of steals. Boston ranks 29th out of 30 MLB teams in wRC+ from their outfielders, and Duran is clearly one of the best options the team has out there – maybe the best. He's hit .278/.366/.523 with 22 homers and 27 steals in 103 Triple-A games and has must-start upside in category leagues if he truly is earning an everyday job.
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Lost in all the hubbub over Cruz and the rest, Lowe was recalled from the minors Monday as well. Remember, Lowe entered the season with as much hype as nearly anyone, as he locked down an opening day job, even leading the Rays to move Austin Meadows on the eve of the season. Lowe flopped, but he went back to Triple-A and just continued hitting, and he's now up to a .293/.381/.536 line with 28 homers and 32 steals in 147 career games at the level. Manuel Margot left Monday's game with a knee sprain that will land him on the IL, so that should help Lowe stay in the lineup most days. If he hits, he'll play, and the upside is sky-high in both points and Roto scoring with his skill set.
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Reyes was a disaster to start the season, striking out in 39.3% of his trips to the plate while hitting just three homers. He's been out since May with a hamstring injury, but has struck out just three times in five games during his rehab assignment with a couple of homers, and obviously was viewed as a must-roster player at the start of the season. He hit 30 homers in just 115 games last season and has some of the best power potential of any player out there. If you're looking for an upside speculative add and the young guys are gone, Reyes is a fine choice.
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Speaking of post-hype breakout candidates, Torkelson was one of the most touted rookies in the league entering the season but has found himself overmatched in his first few months in the majors. That hasn't really dimmed my long-term expectations for the 22-year-old, who now has multiple hits in three straight games. It's a small sample size, obviously, but when it comes to a player as talented as Torkelson – he hit .267/.383/.552 with 30 homers in 121 minor-league games since being the No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft – I'm willing to buy in on any signs of greatness, even small flashes.
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Speaking of flashes, Rogers' overall line wasn't particularly good Monday against the Mets, in keeping with his season-long trends, but there were some real reasons to be optimistic. He struggled in the first inning especially, ultimately striking out seven in five innings while allowing three earned runs. However, the underlying numbers were even more promising, as he racked up a season-best 24 swinging strikes – seven with his slider, nine with his fastball, and perhaps most promising of all, eight with his changeup. Rogers has been one of the biggest busts at any position so far this season, and his changeup is arguably the biggest reason why – he has gone from a 33.7% whiff rate and .229 expected wOBA allowed on the pitch to a 23.2% whiff rate and .289 xWOBA. If that can be a weapon for him again moving forward, we saw how high Rogers' upside is last season, when he had a 2.31 ERA and 29.9% strikeout rate in the first half. I'll chase that upside on waivers.
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Houck now has the past five saves for the Red Sox, and appears to have been who they've been waiting for to stabilize the bullpen. Perhaps most tellingly, Houck got the save Monday even though he had worked the previous day, the first time he has worked consecutive days since transitioning to the bullpen. Houck has big-time strikeout potential and the Red Sox are a good team, so he's a must-roster player wherever saves matter.
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Giles may or may not be the Mariners closer before long, but I still think that's how they view him. The Mariners have steadfastly refused to settle on a single option in the ninth inning, but it's worth remembering that they signed Giles to a two-year contract knowing he'd miss the first year following Tommy John surgery. Giles was, of course, quite a good closer for a while, racking up 115 saves with a 2.74 career ERA and 1.117 WHIP prior to his injury. He was reinstated from the IL Monday and steps into a situation where Diego Castillo and Paul Sewald have split the past four saves for the Mariners. Giles is strictly a speculative add at this point, but I'm expecting him to get a shot if he looks like himself.
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