Fantasy Baseball Trade Values: Overall rankings for H2H, Rotisserie leagues for Week 4

It's never too early for talking trades and improving your roster

We get a lot of questions from our listeners and readers, and at this point in the Fantasy Baseball season, they tend to come in one of two forms:

"What's wrong with [Underperforming Superstar Player Y]?????"

Or … 

"Is [Surprise Early-Season Breakout Player Y] for real???????"

The former is easier to answer, and it usually goes something like, "Probably nothing." That's not to say, of course, that superstar players never fall off a cliff or have down seasons; it's just to say that guys like Manny Machado and Aaron Nola have earned the benefit of the doubt to not worry about them after just a few weeks, even if their data might be a bit wonky.

The second category of questions is trickier to handle. Sometimes, guys just run into a string of almost impossibly good fortune in a small sample size, like Bryson Stott, who is hitting .365 but with underlying metrics that suggest he's more like a .275 hitter with little power to note. He's making a decent amount of contact and spraying a bunch of line drives all over the field, but he's also sporting a .400 batting average on ground balls, an unsustainable string of good luck even in a post-shift landscape, where the league as a whole is hitting just .239 on grounders.

Those are the easier calls. The tougher ones are the likes of Matt Chapman or Yandy Diaz, whose production so far isn't a fluke. Diaz is still hitting the ball incredibly hard, as he did last season, but now he's elevating the ball consistently, with an average launch angle of 14.8 degrees, more than double last year's. 

Diaz always had strong bat-to-ball skills and has often shown elite quality-of-contact skills, but Diaz has been a pretty middling Fantasy option for much of his career because he was doing more damage to the work of the infield grounds crew than to opposing pitchers'. That's changed this season, and it has Diaz looking like an absolute superstar – in fact, his already impressive .422 wOBA actually trails his .467 expected mark. 

Chapman's apparent breakout is fueled by similarly straightforward changes: He's just absolutely whalloping the ball right now. He ranks in the 100th percentile in average exit velocity (97.0 mph) and hard-hit rate (65.4%), while cutting his strikeout rate to what would be a career-low mark. Chapman already hit the ball plenty hard last season, with a 92.2 mph average exit velocity and 51.2% hard-hit rate, but he struck out 27.4% of the time and was too prone to weak fly outs to truly maximize his skill set. 

Which is all to say, if Diaz and Chapman were breaking out, this is exactly what it would look like. There's nothing flukey about what they've done so far – they've been arguably the two best hitters in baseball so far, and they've earned what they've produced and then some. 

And I've moved them way up in my rankings to reflect that, though not all the way to where their play so far would deserve. Because, the thing about all those metrics showing that they've earned their performance so far is those stats only hold so much predictive value. They are snapshots of what has happened so far, and while they may end up being sustainable, it's also possible that both players are just hot right now, in the traditional sense of the word. They are locked in right now, but that doesn't mean they will remain so moving forward.

Chapman has played 18 games, while Diaz is up to 17 entering Thursday, which is a very small sample size. Heck, back in 2020, Eric Hosmer looked like he might be experiencing a similar breakout to Diaz's, cutting his groundball rate to 46.2% and putting together a .287/.333/.517 line over 38 games, double the sample here; he hit just .269/.337/.395 with a 55.5% groundball rate in 2021. If you used some of these same metrics, you might have been inclined to buy Hosmer, and that would have been a mistake.

That's not to say Diaz and Chapman (or any other player with similar apparent jumps in skill set) aren't worth buying. Breakouts happen every year, and again, this is exactly what a breakout would look like for both players! If they can sustain this, they'll be awesome and you'll look like a genius for buying in. 

But we're still dealing with small enough sample sizes that you should train a skeptical eye toward everything you see. Even when the underlying metrics back it up; perhaps even especially when the underlying metrics back it up, because that can lead some to a false sense of certainty about what we're seeing. It's a long season, and players' apparent skill sets fluctuate as well as their performance, and a player being locked in or hot early on doesn't necessarily mean they'll sustain it.

H2H Points leagues Trade Values

Rank	Player	Eligible	Value	Change From Last Week
1	Aaron Judge	DH-OF	52
2	Jose Ramirez	3B-DH	46
3	Ronald Acuna	DH-OF	45
4	Mookie Betts	2B-OF	45
5	Trea Turner	SS	43
6	Yordan Alvarez	DH-OF	41
7	Julio Rodriguez	OF	41	2
8	Kyle Tucker	OF	39
9	Juan Soto	OF	39
10	Freddie Freeman	1B	38
11	Mike Trout	OF	37
12	Shohei Ohtani	DH-SP	37
13	Vladimir Guerrero	1B-DH	37
14	Fernando Tatis	SS	37
15	Rafael Devers	3B	36
16	Gerrit Cole	SP	36
17	Manny Machado	3B	36
18	Corbin Burnes	SP	34
19	Austin Riley	3B	33
20	Paul Goldschmidt	1B-DH	33
21	Pete Alonso	1B-DH	33
22	Sandy Alcantara	SP	32
23	Max Scherzer	SP	32
24	Bo Bichette	SS	31
25	Nolan Arenado	3B	31
26	Marcus Semien	2B	29
27	Francisco Lindor	SS	28
28	Shane Bieber	SP	28
29	Shane McClanahan	SP	28
30	Aaron Nola	SP	28
31	Dylan Cease	SP	28
32	Kyle Schwarber	DH-OF	28
33	Spencer Strider	RP-SP	28
34	Michael Harris	OF	28
35	Bobby Witt	3B-SS	28
36	Jacob deGrom	SP	28
37	Zack Wheeler	SP	28
38	J.T. Realmuto	C	25
39	Ozzie Albies	2B	25
40	Matt Olson	1B	25
41	Jazz Chisholm	2B-OF	25
42	Luis Robert	OF	25
43	Randy Arozarena	DH-OF	25
44	Cedric Mullins	OF	24
45	Kevin Gausman	SP	24
46	Wander Franco	SS	24
47	George Springer	DH-OF	23
48	Alex Bregman	3B	23
49	Luis Castillo	SP	23
50	Alek Manoah	SP	21	-1
51	Emmanuel Clase	RP	21
52	Justin Verlander	SP	21	-3
53	Brandon Woodruff	SP	21	-7
54	Julio Urias	SP	21
55	Framber Valdez	SP	21
56	Yu Darvish	SP	20
57	Josh Hader	RP	20
58	Eloy Jimenez	DH-OF	20
59	Bryan Reynolds	OF	19	3
60	Will Smith	C-DH	19
61	Zac Gallen	SP	18
62	Teoscar Hernandez	OF	18
63	Daulton Varsho	C-OF	18
64	Adolis Garcia	DH-OF	17
65	Adley Rutschman	C-DH	17
66	Xander Bogaerts	SS	16
67	Starling Marte	OF	16
68	Devin Williams	RP	16
69	Carlos Correa	SS	15
70	Steven Kwan	OF	15
71	Christian Walker	1B	15
72	Alejandro Kirk	C-DH	15
73	Tommy Edman	2B-SS	15
74	Byron Buxton	DH-OF	15
75	Clayton Kershaw	SP	15
76	Logan Webb	SP	15
77	Jordan Romano	RP	15
78	Joe Musgrove	SP	15
79	Kyle Wright	SP	15
80	Gunnar Henderson	3B-SS	15
81	Max Fried	SP	15
82	Ryan Pressly	RP	15
83	Jose Abreu	1B-DH	15
84	Pablo Lopez	SP	15	2
85	Corey Seager	SS	15	1
86	Vinnie Pasquantino	1B-DH	15
87	Jose Altuve	2B	15
88	Corbin Carroll	OF	15
89	Willy Adames	SS	15
90	Andres Gimenez	2B	15
91	Felix Bautista	RP	15
92	Cristian Javier	SP	15
93	Dansby Swanson	SS	15
94	Blake Snell	SP	15
95	Lance Lynn	SP	15	1
96	Carlos Rodon	SP	15
97	Salvador Perez	C-DH	15
98	Kris Bryant	OF	14
99	Max Muncy	2B-3B-DH	14
100	Willson Contreras	C-DH	14
101	Ryan Helsley	RP	14	1
102	Anthony Rizzo	1B	14
103	Bryce Harper	DH	14
104	Jordan Walker	3B-OF	14
105	Luis Severino	SP	14
106	Christian Yelich	DH-OF	14
107	Sean Murphy	C-DH	13	3
108	Nick Lodolo	SP	13	1
109	Nestor Cortes	SP	13
110	Brandon Lowe	2B	12
111	Camilo Doval	RP	12
112	Kenley Jansen	RP	12
113	Joe Ryan	SP	12	4
114	Hunter Greene	SP	12
115	George Kirby	SP	12
116	Tyler O'Neill	OF	12	1
117	Tim Anderson	SS	11	3
118	Gleyber Torres	2B	11	1
119	Yandy Diaz	1B-3B	11	7
120	Matt Chapman	3B	11	8
121	William Contreras	C-DH	11
122	Taylor Ward	OF	10
123	Jesus Luzardo	SP	10
124	Nate Lowe	1B	10	1
125	Freddy Peralta	SP	10
126	Chris Sale	SP	9	1
127	Anthony Santander	DH-OF	9	-1
128	Hunter Renfroe	OF	9
129	Josh Bell	1B-DH	9
130	Logan Gilbert	SP	9
131	David Bednar	RP	9
132	MJ Melendez	C-DH-OF	9
133	Miguel Vargas	1B-2B	8
134	Ty France	1B	8
135	Andrew Vaughn	1B-DH-OF	8
136	Robbie Ray	SP	8
137	Mitch Haniger	OF	8
138	Ketel Marte	2B-DH	8
139	Charlie Morton	SP	8
140	Lucas Giolito	SP	8
141	Chris Bassitt	SP	8
142	Jeremy Pena	SS	8
143	C.J. Cron	1B-DH	8	1
144	Dustin May	SP	8
145	Eugenio Suarez	3B	7
146	Anthony Rendon	3B	7
147	Seiya Suzuki	OF	7
148	Brandon Nimmo	OF	6
149	Rowdy Tellez	1B	6	1
150	J.D. Martinez	DH	5
151	Nico Hoerner	2B-SS	5	2
152	Lance McCullers	SP	5
153	Drew Rasmussen	SP	5
154	Ryan Mountcastle	1B-DH	5
155	Jose Berrios	SP	5	1
156	Tyler Stephenson	C-DH	5
157	Jose Miranda	1B-3B-DH	5
158	Tony Gonsolin	SP	4
159	Ian Happ	OF	4
160	Clay Holmes	RP	4	1
161	Jordan Montgomery	SP	4
162	Anthony Volpe	SS	4	-2
163	Jonathan India	2B	4
164	Tyler Glasnow	SP	4
165	Graham Ashcraft	SP	3
166	Nick Castellanos	DH-OF	3
167	Grayson Rodriguez	SP	3
168	Jhoan Duran	RP	3
169	Kris Bubic	SP	3
170	Jake Cronenworth	1B-2B	3	-1
171	Ezequiel Tovar	SS	3
172	Giancarlo Stanton	DH-OF	3	-9
173	Paul Sewald	RP	3
174	Andrew Heaney	SP	3
175	Jarred Kelenic	OF	3
176	Jorge Soler	DH-OF	3
177	Raisel Iglesias	RP	3	-6
178	Logan O'Hoppe	C	3
179	Luis Arraez	1B-2B-DH	3	2
180	Vaughn Grissom	2B-SS	3	3
181	Triston McKenzie	SP	3	1
182	Amed Rosario	SS	3
183	Jake McCarthy	OF	3
184	Jon Gray	SP	3
185	A.J. Puk	RP	3
186	Oscar Colas	OF	3
187	Brady Singer	SP	3
188	Alec Bohm	1B-3B	3	2
189	Reid Detmers	SP	3
190	Jack Flaherty	SP	2
191	Kodai Senga	SP	2
192	Jeff McNeil	2B-OF	2
193	Jorge Polanco	2B	2
194	Merrill Kelly	SP	2
195	Miles Mikolas	SP	2
196	Joey Gallo	1B-OF	2	2
197	Patrick Sandoval	SP	2
198	Alex Verdugo	OF	2
199	Javier Baez	SS	2

Rotisserie/Categories leagues Trade Values 

Rank	Player	Eligible	Value	Change From Last Week
1	Ronald Acuna	DH-OF	44
2	Jose Ramirez	3B-DH	43
3	Julio Rodriguez	OF	43
4	Trea Turner	SS	43
5	Aaron Judge	DH-OF	43
6	Mookie Betts	2B-OF	38
7	Kyle Tucker	OF	35
8	Yordan Alvarez	DH-OF	35
9	Juan Soto	OF	35
10	Mike Trout	OF	34
11	Shohei Ohtani	DH-SP	34
12	Fernando Tatis	SS	32
13	Vladimir Guerrero	1B-DH	31
14	Freddie Freeman	1B	31
15	Rafael Devers	3B	29
16	Manny Machado	3B	29
17	Bo Bichette	SS	29
18	Gerrit Cole	SP	27
19	Pete Alonso	1B-DH	27
20	Bobby Witt	3B-SS	27
21	Austin Riley	3B	27
22	Corbin Burnes	SP	27
23	Paul Goldschmidt	1B-DH	26
24	Marcus Semien	2B	25
25	Max Scherzer	SP	24
26	Nolan Arenado	3B	24
27	Francisco Lindor	SS	24
28	Sandy Alcantara	SP	24
29	Randy Arozarena	DH-OF	24
30	Luis Robert	OF	23
31	Cedric Mullins	OF	23
32	Aaron Nola	SP	22
33	Spencer Strider	RP-SP	21
34	Jazz Chisholm	2B-OF	21
35	Jacob deGrom	SP	21
36	Shane McClanahan	SP	21
37	Zack Wheeler	SP	21
38	Matt Olson	1B	21
39	Kyle Schwarber	DH-OF	21
40	Emmanuel Clase	RP	20
41	Shane Bieber	SP	20
42	Ozzie Albies	2B	20
43	Luis Castillo	SP	18	2
44	Brandon Woodruff	SP	18	-1
45	Justin Verlander	SP	18	-1
46	J.T. Realmuto	C	18
47	Kevin Gausman	SP	18	2
48	Dylan Cease	SP	18	2
49	Adolis Garcia	DH-OF	17
50	George Springer	DH-OF	17
51	Josh Hader	RP	17
52	Alex Bregman	3B	16
53	Daulton Varsho	C-OF	16
54	Devin Williams	RP	15
55	Wander Franco	SS	15
56	Willy Adames	SS	15
57	Jordan Romano	RP	15
58	Julio Urias	SP	15
59	Vinnie Pasquantino	1B-DH	15
60	Byron Buxton	DH-OF	15
61	Framber Valdez	SP	15
62	Will Smith	C-DH	15
63	Corbin Carroll	OF	15
64	Michael Harris	OF	15	-2
65	Alejandro Kirk	C-DH	15
66	Eloy Jimenez	DH-OF	15
67	Felix Bautista	RP	15
68	Yu Darvish	SP	15
69	Salvador Perez	C-DH	15
70	Adley Rutschman	C-DH	15
71	Joe Musgrove	SP	15
72	Clayton Kershaw	SP	15	1
73	Alek Manoah	SP	15
74	Teoscar Hernandez	OF	15
75	Xander Bogaerts	SS	15
76	Gunnar Henderson	3B-SS	15
77	Ryan Pressly	RP	15
78	Dansby Swanson	SS	15
79	Pablo Lopez	SP	15	3
80	Starling Marte	OF	15
81	Cristian Javier	SP	15
82	Bryan Reynolds	OF	15
83	Ryan Helsley	RP	15
84	Tommy Edman	2B-SS	15
85	Zac Gallen	SP	15
86	Carlos Correa	SS	15
87	Andres Gimenez	2B	14	-1
88	Christian Walker	1B	14
89	Logan Webb	SP	14	1
90	Tyler O'Neill	OF	14
91	Willson Contreras	C-DH	14
92	Steven Kwan	OF	14
93	Jordan Walker	3B-OF	14
94	Anthony Santander	DH-OF	14
95	Nico Hoerner	2B-SS	14	4
96	Christian Yelich	DH-OF	14
97	Camilo Doval	RP	14
98	Brandon Lowe	2B	14
99	Carlos Rodon	SP	14
100	Gleyber Torres	2B	14
101	Anthony Volpe	SS	14	3
102	Max Muncy	2B-3B-DH	14	3
103	Jose Abreu	1B-DH	14	-1
104	Nate Lowe	1B	14
105	MJ Melendez	C-DH-OF	13
106	Kris Bryant	OF	13
107	Nestor Cortes	SP	13
108	Max Fried	SP	13
109	Jake McCarthy	OF	13
110	Bryce Harper	DH	13	1
111	Nick Lodolo	SP	13
112	Lance Lynn	SP	13
113	Jesus Luzardo	SP	12
114	Taylor Ward	OF	12
115	Hunter Greene	SP	12
116	Freddy Peralta	SP	12
117	Blake Snell	SP	12
118	George Kirby	SP	11
119	Ty France	1B	11
120	William Contreras	C-DH	11
121	Sean Murphy	C-DH	11	2
122	Matt Chapman	3B	11
123	Hunter Renfroe	OF	11
124	Joe Ryan	SP	11	4
125	Corey Seager	SS	11
126	Logan Gilbert	SP	11
127	Rowdy Tellez	1B	10
128	Jeremy Pena	SS	10
129	Jose Altuve	2B	10
130	Ketel Marte	2B-DH	10
131	Kenley Jansen	RP	10
132	Kyle Wright	SP	9
133	Charlie Morton	SP	9
134	Kodai Senga	SP	9
135	Seiya Suzuki	OF	9
136	Ian Happ	OF	9
137	Josh Bell	1B-DH	9
138	David Bednar	RP	9	-1
139	Amed Rosario	SS	9
140	C.J. Cron	1B-DH	9
141	Anthony Rizzo	1B	9
142	Clay Holmes	RP	9
143	Andrew Vaughn	1B-DH-OF	9
144	Yandy Diaz	1B-3B	9	6
145	Nick Castellanos	DH-OF	9
146	Robbie Ray	SP	8
147	Tim Anderson	SS	8	-3
148	Chris Bassitt	SP	8
149	Tyler Stephenson	C-DH	8	-1
150	Chris Sale	SP	8	-1
151	Jonathan India	2B	7
152	Reid Detmers	SP	7
153	Dustin May	SP	7
154	Alec Bohm	1B-3B	7
155	Tyler Glasnow	SP	7
156	Eugenio Suarez	3B	7
157	Jeff McNeil	2B-OF	7
158	Patrick Sandoval	SP	7
159	Brandon Nimmo	OF	7
160	Jake Cronenworth	1B-2B	7	-1
161	Ryan Mountcastle	1B-DH	7
162	Luis Arraez	1B-2B-DH	7
163	Lars Nootbaar	OF	7	-1
164	Miguel Vargas	1B-2B	7
165	Luis Severino	SP	7
166	Anthony Rendon	3B	6
167	Raisel Iglesias	RP	6	-3
168	Logan O'Hoppe	C	6
169	Jorge Polanco	2B	6
170	Ezequiel Tovar	SS	6	-2
171	Jorge Soler	DH-OF	6	2
172	Alexis Diaz	RP	6
173	Thairo Estrada	2B-SS	6
174	Mitch Haniger	OF	6
175	Ke'Bryan Hayes	3B	6
176	Jhoan Duran	RP	6
177	Lucas Giolito	SP	6
178	J.D. Martinez	DH	6	-1
179	Grayson Rodriguez	SP	6
180	Alex Verdugo	OF	6
181	Spencer Steer	3B	6	5
182	Jose Miranda	1B-3B-DH	6
183	Ryan McMahon	2B-3B	6	1
184	Riley Greene	OF	6	-3
185	Peter Fairbanks	RP	6
186	Brady Singer	SP	6
187	Vaughn Grissom	2B-SS	6	5
188	Jordan Montgomery	SP	6
189	Luis Garcia	SP	6
190	Paul Sewald	RP	6
191	Javier Baez	SS	6
192	Giancarlo Stanton	DH-OF	6	-7
193	Brandon Drury	1B-2B-3B-DH	5
194	Ramon Laureano	OF	5
195	Drew Rasmussen	SP	5
196	Oscar Colas	OF	5
197	Gabriel Moreno	C	5
198	Josh Jung	3B	5
199	Jean Segura	2B-3B	5	-1
200	Whit Merrifield	2B-OF	5
201	Andres Munoz	RP	5
202	Tony Gonsolin	SP	5
203	Lance McCullers	SP	4	-1
204	Jose Berrios	SP	4
205	Keibert Ruiz	C	4
206	Josh Naylor	1B-DH	4
207	Cal Raleigh	C	4
208	Joey Gallo	1B-OF	4	#N/A
209	Masataka Yoshida	OF	4	-2
210	Alex Cobb	SP	4
211	Oscar Gonzalez	OF	4
212	Triston McKenzie	SP	4
213	Bryson Stott	2B-SS	4	#N/A
214	Merrill Kelly	SP	4
215	Lourdes Gurriel	DH-OF	4
216	Jorge Mateo	SS	4	#N/A
217	Joc Pederson	DH-OF	4
218	Francisco Alvarez	C	4	-2
219	Andrew Benintendi	OF	4
220	Graham Ashcraft	SP	4
221	Danny Jansen	C	4
222	Jon Gray	SP	4
223	Triston Casas	1B	4
224	Jose Leclerc	RP	3
225	Gregory Soto	RP	3
226	C.J. Abrams	SS	3
227	Joey Meneses	1B-DH-OF	3	-1
228	Aroldis Chapman	RP	3	#N/A
229	Josh Rojas	2B-3B	3	-1
230	Austin Hays	OF	3
231	Michael Conforto	OF	3
232	Trevor Story	2B	3
233	Reynaldo Lopez	RP	3
234	Seranthony Dominguez	RP	3
235	Trevor Rogers	SP	3
236	Jarred Kelenic	OF	3
237	Nathan Eovaldi	SP	3
238	Matt Mervis	1B	3
239	Bryan De La Cruz	OF	3
240	David Robertson	RP	3
241	Travis d'Arnaud	C	3
242	Charlie Blackmon	DH-OF	3
243	Brendan Donovan	2B-3B-OF	3
244	Miles Mikolas	SP	3
245	Kyle Finnegan	RP	3
246	Jon Berti	2B-3B-SS	3
247	A.J. Puk	RP	3
248	Andrew Heaney	SP	2
249	Sonny Gray	SP	2	-1
250	Edward Cabrera	SP	2
251	Jameson Taillon	SP	2	-1
252	Jake Fraley	DH-OF	2
253	Marcus Stroman	SP	2
254	Tyler Anderson	SP	2
255	Martin Perez	SP	2
256	Eric Haase	C	2