If you're just tuning into baseball again with Hot Stove season winding down, congratulations. You've missed a lot. Fortunately, Scott White and Chris Towers have been analyzing all the consequential moves for Fantasy Baseball in real time, making now the perfect time for you to play catch-up.
It's also not over yet. Alex Bregman may be the last marquee free agent still unsigned, but prospective closers like Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel remain without a team. There's also the possibility of a trade or two. So bookmark this page and keep checking back. As the news comes in, you'll be glad you have one stop for keeping track of it all.
Kenley Jansen signs with the Angels
On the one hand, it's a bummer: We won't get to see Ben Joyce deploying his 105-mph fastball in save situations in 2025, at least not to start. Jansen has the pedigree and standing to demand the closer's job, at least on a team like the Angels, and I fully expect him to open the season as the team's unquestioned closer. Barring disaster, something Jansen has mostly been able to avoid into his late 30s, he should remain the closer, as well. How many saves that will turn into is a different question, one that likely has an answer somewhere in the high 20s, given the Angels' likely mid-70s win total and Jansen's likely need for an IL stint at some point. He's a viable closer, but no longer the difference maker he was at his best. We can probably just slot him into Joyce's place in the rankings and ADP, somewhere just south of the 200th overall pick.
And don't weep too much for Joyce. He'll get his chance to close some games, and besides, he's more "interesting" than "good" or even "exciting" at this point in his career, so we're not losing an elite closer. Despite his nearly unprecedented fireballing ways, Joyce hasn't really figured out how to generate big strikeout numbers – and when he was racking up strikeouts in the minors, he was doing so with often untenable walk rates. Add in a shoulder issue that sidelined him at the end of last season, and he shouldn't have been viewed as a lock for 30 saves even before this. Now, he might not even be a lock for 10 saves, and is only worth drafting in deeper Roto leagues. --Chris Towers
Pete Alonso signs with Mets
Obviously, this is the least interesting place Alonso could have gone. The 30-year-old has spent his entire career with the Mets, so it's as if he was never a free agent at all. What is interesting, though, is how frigid the market for him was. He ended up settling for a two-year, $54 million deal (with an opt-out after 2025), which is quite the drop from the seven-year, $158 million offer the Mets made two years ago. Part of that's because he's limited to playing first base, and a high number of teams have that position filled already, but there does seem to be genuine concern surrounding Alonso after his strikeout rate climbed for a second straight year.
I mostly think these concerns are overblown, though. Again, he's only 30, and his 2024 strikeout rate still wasn't as high as in his first two seasons, when he was an out-and-out stud for Fantasy. His 34 home runs last year actually led all first basemen, too. Maybe he'll never hit .270 or even .260 again, like we saw in 2021-22, but he's a reliable masher at a position that's surprising lacking in them. Unless you were counting on Mark Vientos picking up first base eligibility, this signing is welcome news for the predictability it offers, not to mention the RBI potential with him projected to bat behind Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto. While I'd still take Matt Olson ahead of Alonso, I think their most-likely scenarios remain pretty similar, making Alonso a nice value even just a round later. --Scott White
Jack Flaherty signs with Tigers
The Tigers are, of course, the team that brought Flaherty back to Fantasy relevance last year. so seeing him go back to Detroit is welcome news for Fantasy Baseballers. His production had slipped a bit after a midseason trade to the Dodgers, his walk rate doubling as he put together a 3.58 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. Now, though, he's back under the watchful eye of pitching coach Chris Fetter, who cleaned up Flaherty's delivery and convinced him to ditch his cutter, allowing the fastball to play up again. Those tweaks led to the 2.95 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 11.2 K/9 that got Flaherty traded to the Dodgers.
It's a little concerning, perhaps, that the terms of this new deal are only two years and $35 million. You'd think a 29-year-old coming off a near 200-strikeout season would generate more interest than that, and it makes me wonder if Flaherty's time with the Dodgers, respectable though it was, raised some red flags. Still, I'm inclined to rank him as a top-40 starting pitcher, particularly now that he's back in an environment where we've known him to thrive. --Scott White
Max Scherzer signs with Blue Jays
Scherzer had remained mostly dominant into his late 30s even as the injuries began to mount, but that changed last year. Debuting in late June after having surgery to repair a herniated disc in his back, he showed reduced velocity and only moderate effectiveness, twice more landing on the IL (for separate issues, notably) before the year was done. So now that there are performance concerns to go along with the availability concerns inherent to a 40-year-old pitcher, you have to ask yourself if Scherzer is really worth the trouble. The Blue Jays evidently thought so, to the tune of $15.5 million, but the expectation for Fantasy, as with new Giants pitcher Justin Verlander, is that Scherzer will go undrafted in most leagues. --Scott White
Carlos Estevez signs with Royals
Another day, another move that adds to our closer confusion. The Royals looked like they had already uncovered a potential gem in Lucas Erceg, who put together a 2.88 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 11.2 K/9 in 23 appearances after coming over from the Athletics, but now they're paying Estevez $22 million over the next two years, a not-insignificant expenditure for a small-market team. The prevailing assumption, then, is that Estevez will overtake Erceg for closing duties, at least to start out. He's been passable in the role the past two years, mostly for the Angels, but has never resembled a lockdown closer. He addressed his biggest issue last year, cutting his walk rate in half, but appeared to trade off some strikeouts in the process. It led to some slip-ups after he came over the Phillies in a trade deadline deal.
In all likelihood, Erceg will be the best reliever in the Royals bullpen still, and whenever the best reliever isn't the closer, it's like a sword of Damocles hanging over the reliever who is. Now, we have to divide our attention between two Royals relievers on Draft Day, at least in leagues where saves are scarce, and we can't draft Estevez with near the same confidence we were drafting Erceg. I like him more than new Cubs closer Ryan Pressly, but only slightly, which places Estevez just inside the top 20 of my relief pitcher rankings. --Scott White
Ha-seong Kim signs with Rays
Kim is expected to be out until at least May while recovering from shoulder surgery, and given the shockingly light details of the contract – FanGraphs.com's crowdsourced prediction for Kim was four years, $73.5 million, and he settled for half as many years and $4 million less in AAV – you've got to assume there are real concerns about how Kim is going to play after the surgery. At his best, Kim can be a Fantasy contiributor, as he was in 2023 when he had 17 homers, 38 steals, and hit .260. However, with the time he is expected to miss and how fringe-y he has been as a Fantasy option for most of his career outside of 2023, he's just a late-round target as a bench piece.
The bigger impact here might be on the rest of the Rays' infield. Does Jose Caballero become just a utility guy once Kim is back? That seems likely, especially as his bat completely collapsed after a solid start last season. But it's possible that this could signal the beginning of the end of Brandon Lowe's time in Tampa – something that wouldn't be welcome for Fantasy, given expectations for Lowe in Tampa's new (temporary), very lefty-friendly home park. We'll see how the dominos fall beyond this, but it feels like the Rays probably have another move coming in their infield, especially since top prospect Carson Williams could be ready some time in 2025. --Chris Towers
Kirby Yates signs with Dodgers
As if the Tanner Scott signing didn't throw enough confusion into the Dodgers' closer plans, here they are bringing in one of the most effective closers in the entire league last year. Yates gets only a one-year, $13 million deal, which pales in comparison to Scott's four-year, $72 million deal. Read into that what you will. While GM Brandon Gomes has said Scott won't be the set closer, that's probably because the Dodgers eschew the very idea of a set closer, with Kenley Jansen representing their last.
If nothing else, this signing helps narrow the focus in Fantasy to two pitchers, Scott and Yates, moving others like Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips and Michael Kopech to the back burner. The dollar disparity makes Scott the likely favorite to start out, but if he encounters a rough patch, which seems probable given his poor control, manager Dave Roberts won't hesitate to switch to Yates, provided his splitter is up to the task again. The proper approach in Fantasy is to avoid both in shallower leagues and to target whichever is going later (presumably Yates) in leagues where saves are scarce. Paying a premium for one would be demonstrating too much confidence in what's likely to be a touch-and-go situation all season long. --Scott White
Jurickson Profar signs with the Braves
Profar's breakout season was viewed skeptically by the MLB market, which makes a lot of sense – his .839 OPS in 2024 was the best he has ever managed in an MLB season, and was his first season north of .750 since the shortened 2020 season. Coming from a 31-year-old, that skepticism is extremely reasonable, and it's reflected in how the Fantasy world is viewing him, as his ADP in the month of January sits at just 212.9.
But here's the important question: What if that skepticism is totally misplaced? Profar was terrific basically all season long – August was the only month he had an OPS below .800 – and his underlying numbers almost totally back it up. After an entire career with an average exit velocity below 88 mph, he suddenly started crushing the ball, putting up an average EV of 91.1 mph. His hard hit rate was similarly a career-best 44.4%, and his expected wOBA of .364 was right in line with his .365 actual mark. Which is to say: He earned every bit of his production last season.
Skepticism is a reasonable response to a player in his 30s putting up a career-best season like that, but it's also in line with an apparent skills change on Profar's part. And now he signs with the Braves, a very good lineup top to bottom that should be one of the best in baseball. There is some risk of Profar being relegated to a part-time role if he struggles to open the season and Ronald Acuna returns from his torn ACL, but the three-year, $42 million price tag on his contract should insulate him from at least some of that risk. And, if he's truly a .280-ish hitter with Profar's approach at the plate and 25-homer, 10-steal potential, he's going to be an absolute steal at his current price. I would take him inside of the top-150 in any draft, and even that could still be a discount for a guy who was the No. 26 hitter last season. --Chris Towers
Ryan Pressly traded to the Cubs
Pressly immediately becomes the most experienced closer in the Cubs bullpen, with 112 career saves compared to nine for apparent incumbent Porter Hodge. That doesn't necessarily mean Pressly will be the Cubs closer, but it seems like a reasonable enough bet – Hodge was very good in a relatively small sample last season, but doesn't exactly have a strong track record, with a career 4.36 ERA in the minors and a history of control problems. This could be one that is decided in Spring Training, but early money should be on Pressly to be the closer on Opening Day, and if he manages the typical low-to-mid-3.00s ERA he has had in his mid-30s, he should be a viable (though unexciting) closer for Fantasy. He'll slot in around 20 in my reliever rankings after this trade, with Hodge just a late-round flier. --Chris Towers
Anthony Santander signs with Blue Jays
This is one of those moves that's headline-grabbing for real life but doesn't change much for Fantasy. Santander has become one of the premier sluggers in the game, hitting 44 home runs last season and averaging 35 over the past three, and going to the Blue Jays doesn't figure to change that. In fact, Statcast estimates that Santander would have hit slightly more home runs if he had played every game at Rogers Centre last year (39) than if he had played every game at Camden Yards (37). The downstream effects of this signing are minimal, too. The Orioles had already brought in Tyler O'Neill to replace Santander in their outfield, and the Blue Jays now don't have to start Joey Loperfido in theirs. Santander's ADP had been lagging in NFBC leagues because he hadn't found a home yet, but now that he has, I suspect he'll be one of the top 20 outfielders drafted and one of the top 75 players overall. --Scott White
Tanner Scott signs with Dodgers
Considered by many to be the top free agent reliever on the market, Scott winds up where every top free agent does these days, with the Dodgers. Do they need him? Irrelevant. They can have him, so they do. Unfortunately, their ever-growing surplus creates some uncertainty regarding role, and with the way manager Dave Roberts has operated the past couple years, I'm not confident we'll have real clarity come draft time. Scott indeed has closing experience, having spent parts of the past three seasons in the role, and the Dodgers do have a couple high-leverage lefties already in Alex Vesia and Anthony Banda. Then again, the Dodgers also brought back right-hander Blake Treinen this offseason after primarily leaning on him to close out games during their Worlds Series run.
His overall stat line last year -- a 1.93 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 -- was arguably even better than Scott's, and he doesn't run the high walk rates Scott does. The Dodgers bullpen also boasts Evan Phillips, who has led the team in saves the past two years, and Michael Kopech, who is a closer-caliber reliever himself. My guess for what happens here is that Roberts keeps us guessing all year, swapping out one hot hand for another and playing matchups a fair amount, too. Maybe Scott enters as the odds-on favorite, but he'll have a stretch where he can't find the strike zone, causing him to fall out of favor for a while. In the long run, Treinen might be the winning bet, but again, I'm merely playing hunches. --Scott White
Roki Sasaki signs with Dodgers
Turns out Sasaki's choice is exactly the one everyone expected him to make. He joins a star-studded rotation that also includes Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani and about half a dozen others who have made significant contributions to the Dodgers in the past. That pitching surplus is exactly why I think Fantasy Baseballers need to be cautious with Sasaki in 2025, despite his obvious talent and considerable supporting cast. For a complete explanation, check out my full-length article. --Scott White
Jesse Winker signs with Mets
The Mets have brought back a hitter from their 2024 playoff team, but it's not Pete Alonso. And that seems to be the point. By signing Winker, the Mets are pivoting to Plan B, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, which also involves shifting Mark Vientos to first base. As for Winker, he was solid last season, shaking off a couple of injury-plagued years, but most of his production came with the Nationals. The Mets acquired him for more of a part-time role -- playing strictly against righties, and not every single one -- and that figures to be the role he fills again this year. He reaches base at a nice clip but is unlikely to excel in any of the traditional 5x5 categories, making him a deep-league option at best. --Scott White
Jeff Hoffman signs with Blue Jays
There were rumblings earlier this offseason that some teams might look to Hoffman as a starter, and the Blue Jays ultimately signed him to a contract (three years, $33 million) similar to the one the Braves gave Reynaldo Lopez last offseason prior to transitioning him to the rotation. But GM Ross Atkins took all the suspense out of the move moments after making it, saying that Hoffman "will get an opportunity to close games for us." And honestly, it's the best thing for his Fantasy value. A failed starter with the Rockies and Reds, Hoffman emerged as a bullpen ace with the Phillies. Though he never served as their full-time closer, he put together a 2.28 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 12.0 K/9 the past two years, unlocking his potential with a harder slider that he throws upward of 40 percent of the time. He'll fit nicely in the closer role, bumping Chad Green back to setup duties, and figures to be a borderline top-12 reliever on Draft Day.
Curiously, a report came out in the aftermath of the signing saying that the Orioles pulled out of a larger deal with Hoffman after a physical revealed something in his shoulder. The Orioles are known for being skittish with physicals, though, and the Blue Jays obviously weren't dissuaded. In all likelihood, the report won't impact Hoffman's Draft Day value. --Scott White
Justin Verlander signs with Giants
Perhaps the most telling part of this deal is that it's not with a surefire contender. The only reason Verlander has to keep pitching is competition's sake. He's made his millions. He's stamped his ticket to Cooperstown. He's secured every individual accolade a pitcher can, including an MVP award. But he's not ready to give it up. Well, the league is about ready to give up on him. Otherwise, every team with World Series aspirations would climbing over each other to hand him a one-year deal.
Though just three years removed from his third Cy Young award, his numbers last season sum up his current state. His velocity is in decline. He's not anyone's idea of a bat-misser anymore. He'll be lucky to spend more time off the IL than on it. And he's about to turn 42. There's no turning back time no matter how favorable of a venue Oracle Park is. I expect Verlander to go undrafted in about half of all CBS Sports leagues, and he'll be a streamer at best in the other half. --Scott White
Gavin Lux traded to Reds
This deal is interesting not so much for the principle players involved but for the number of lineup permutations it creates in both Los Angeles and Cincinnati. The Dodgers just signed defensive specialist Hyeseong Kim out of South Korea and could make him a one-to-one replacement for Lux at second base or instead install him at shortstop, moving Mookie Betts to second. Alternatively, the Dodgers could keep Kim on the bench and bring Tommy Edman in from center field to man shortstop, giving Andy Pages a shot at regular at-bats. Kim would have some appeal as a base-stealer and Pages as a home run hitter, but only if they get the requisite at-bats to matter. Likewise, we wouldn't mind seeing Betts pick up eligibility at second base.
Speaking of second base eligibility, Matt McLain hasn't earned it yet for 2025 and tried his hand at center field in the Arizona Fall League. We presumed it was just for versatility's sake and that he'd be the Reds second baseman for opening day, but this Lux acquisition raises doubts. Early reports suggest that Lux is the one the Reds plan to move around, which hopefully keeps second base eligibility in McLain's future (he's shortstop-only in CBS Sports leagues right now), but as with Betts' prospective eligibility gains, it's a wait-and-see situation. For what it's worth, Lux wouldn't seem to be a big winner here even though he's going to the most homer-friendly park in baseball. His modest exit velocities and suboptimal launch angle readings make him not much of a power hitter anywhere. Plus, it sounds like playing time could be an issue.
Chris Towers went even deeper into some of these lineup permutations, so be sure to check out his full-length article. --Scott White
Charlie Morton signs with Orioles
Morton gets a shot with another contender after four years in Atlanta, only one of which was particularly helpful for Fantasy. Given that he's 41, you can understand him slowing down, but his decline hasn't been defined by the usual indicators of age. His velocity has held fairly steady. His curveball is still one of the highest-rpm pitches in baseball. He continues to make at least 30 starts every year.
You'd expect his age to show in one, if not all, of those areas, but instead, his decline is tied mostly to his walk rate, which has ranked in the bottom five among qualifiers each of the past three years. It makes me wonder if he's still salvageable, particularly with the change of scenery, but I've been playing that game for a few years now and, frankly, have grown weary of it. Most likely, Morton will be a streamable innings-eater with pretty good strikeout numbers again -- one who, if you start him too much, is likely to have an adverse affect on your ERA and especially WHIP. --Scott White
Hyeseong Kim signs with Dodgers
Kim joins the Dodgers on a three-year deal, and it's a nice move that gives the Dodgers plenty of added flexibility in their infield – but may not matter too much for Fantasy. Kim is a three-time Golden Glove Award winner in the KBO who led the league in steals in 2021, but he probably doesn't have enough power to be an impact regular at the MLB level – his 11 homers in 2024 were a career high, and his quality of contact numbers were well below average for an MLB player. But he's a terrific defender at both middle infield spots, so he could either slot into either the second base or shortstop spot or serve as a super utility option. If the Dodgers opt to move on from Gavin Lux, Kim would seem to have a chance to matter for Fantasy in an Andres Gimenez-type way, though that might be the ceiling. And, if Lux doesn't end up traded, Kim likely sees time all around the infield but probably doesn't play enough to matter outside of NL-only leagues. There's some speed and average upside in the profile, but Kim probably doesn't need to be drafted in 12-team leagues, and he's probably just a late-round flier for speed in 15-teamers. --Chris Towers
Josh Bell signs with Nationals
It's a reunion for Bell, who will likely be the team's primary DH after they traded for Nathaniel Lowe earlier in the offseason. Bell did very well in his time in Washington the first time, hitting .278/.363/.483 over 247 games in 2021 and 2022, but at this point in his career, we know that you can't necessarily expect that kind of production from Bell. He's always been a notoriously streaky hitter, and so while the park probably helps bump up his projection a bit, Bell isn't someone you should necessarily count on to be a Fantasy starter. If he becomes one of those, that's a nice outcome, but it's one you should hope for from a CI or bench spot. There's some upside here for 25-plus homers and a batting average that won't hurt you, but we also saw him hit just .239 with 14 homers in 104 games with the Marlins before being traded to Arizona last year. --Chris Towers
Matt Mervis traded to Marlins; Vidal Brujan traded to Cubs
The Marlins have a type, and it appears to be, "Probably Quad-A slugger." Mervis joins the Marlins to likely compete for either the 1B or DH spot this spring, and he's not entirely without some sleeper appeal, having hit .269/.371/.511 with 52 homers in 242 career Triple-A games. He has flopped in his previous chances in the majors, striking out 31% of the time with just three homers in 36 games, but he'll get a chance in Miami, at least. It's a long shot, and one only NL-only players should have any interest in. But he could be a cheap source of power if he cuts down on the strikeouts. If not, Miami will move on to one of the other vaguely Matt Mervis-shaped alternatives on the 40-man roster.
The skill set is very different, but the idea is basically the same on the other side of this trade: Brujan is a former top prospect who has yet to make any kind fo impact in the majors but doesn't have anything left to prove in Triple-A. He's likely just a utility player for the Cubs, but he brings plus speed and, at least theoretically, contact skills that could make him an option at second base if Nico Hoerner's elbow isn't healthy by Opening Day. Brujan only matters in NL-only leagues, and the path to an everyday role is probably even more cloudy than it is for Mervis. --Chris Towers
Corbin Burnes signs with Diamondbacks
There weren't many landing spots Corbin Burnes could have ended up with this offseason that would have been better for his Fantasy Baseball value than the Orioles squad he just spent his 2024 with. But he just might have found one of them. The Diamondbacks get a workhorse who is coming off a 2.92 ERA and who flashed even more upside than that with some late-season tweaks. There are some underlying signs of decline, perhaps, but those late-season tweaks also helped to address those concerns. For a full explanation, check out my full-length article. --Chris Towers
Teoscar Hernandez signs with Dodgers
Hernandez found a home that fit him perfectly in Los Angeles last season, and he made no secret of his desire to stay there as he hit free agency. The Dodgers had other, more urgent things to deal with to open the offseason, but they eventually found a way to keep Hernandez in Los Angeles, filling a hole in their corner outfield with the best non Juan Soto option out there. Hernandez is, at 32 year old, on the point in the aging curve where a fall-off wouldn't be unexpected. But with his spot in the heart of the Dodgers lineup secured, he should remain a standout source of run production, with 30-homer potential and a batting average that won't hurt you. Hernandez should be one of the first 20 or so outfielders off the board in nearly all drafts, making up for what he lacks in five-category upside with solid, projectable production across the board. --Chris Towers
Gleyber Torres signs with Tigers
In some ways, this one is fairly straightforward: The Tigers are an ascending team with some self-imposed financial restraints, so they're taking a cheap, one-year flier on Torres bouncing back. Torres stumbled in 2024, hitting just .257/.330/.378 with 1.7 fWAR, but he had been a solid mid-.700s-to-low-.800s bat in the previous two seasons. He'll be 28 and looking to set himself up for a big contract next offseason, though he'll be doing that in a worse lineup and home park, which certainly isn't ideal. Torres remains in the low-end starting 2B range with the potential for a bounceback, but even at a relatively weak position, you'd probably rather have more of a sure thing as your starter. But if Torres can get back to being a 20-ish homer threat with double-digit steals, he can be a very fine middle infield option at a discount.
The more interesting wrinkle here is what it means for the rest of the Tigers infield. Team president Scott Harris told reporters in the aftermath of the signing that Torres will play second base, with Colt Keith shifting over to first base. Whether that means he will supplant, compete, or share time with Spencer Torkelson remains to be seen, but at this point, it's not clear either should be handed a job; Torkelson found himself back in Triple-A for part of last season amid a .219/.295/.374 line in the majors, while Keith barely managed any better, hitting .260/.309/.380. So, I'm guessing this is an open competition, and neither should be viewed as much more than a late-round flier even in deeper leagues.
Then there's this: The Tigers actually somehow managed to get even worse production from two other infield spots in 2024. The team's shortstops managed to hit just .190/.237/.315, while their third basemen hit .234/.294/.349. The offseason isn't over, but as of now, it doesn't look like they're making any attempt to upgrade over Javier Baez, perhaps with the hope he can improve enough over the next two seasons to give top prospect Kevin McGonigle a chance to stay on the fast track to the majors. And the Tigers seem likely to give recent top prospect Jace Jung another chance at the hot corner despite an underwhelming 34-game debut in 2024. Which is all to say, despite his underwhelming 2024, Torres might be the most interesting Fantasy option of this group. They need someone – and probably multiple someones – to step forward to repeat last year's miracle run to the playoffs
(Unless they decide to make another splash in free agency and sign Alex Bregman, something they were rumored to be interested in before the Torres signing. --Chris Towers
Walker Buehler signs with Red Sox
Buehler gets a nice $21.05 million payday even though his return from a second Tommy John surgery last season could only be described as disastrous. So why the vote of confidence? Things turned around for him in the postseason as his sweeper picked up several inches of horizontal break. The eye-opener was Game 3 of the NLCS against the Mets, when he struck out six over four shutout innings while piling up 18 swinging strikes. He ended the postseason with 10 consecutive scoreless innings, surrendering just five hits and striking out 13. It was a tiny sample, which is probably why he was only able to secure a one-year deal, but it was enough to give us (and apparently the Red Sox) hope that his second Tommy John surgery wasn't as ruinous as it first seemed. Buehler won't be a top target on Draft Day, but he's certain to get some late-round looks. --Scott White
Joc Pederson signs with Rangers
After swapping out Nathaniel Lowe for Jake Burger at first base in two separate moves, the Rangers continued to tweak their lineup by landing a new DH (at least against right-handed pitchers) on a two-year, $37 million deal. This represents a raise for Pederson after an impressive season with the Diamondbacks in which he delivered a career-best .908 OPS. The 32-year-old is well traveled and does pretty much the same thing no matter where he goes, so you can pencil him in for another decent batting average along with 20 homers or so. Because he's a strict platoon player, it's not as valuable as it may seem for Fantasy, but he's useful in a streaming capacity and in leagues that allow for daily lineup changes. His signing presumably makes Leody Taveras no longer a regular part of the Rangers lineup, though he'll be available off the bench if Evan Carter struggles to stay healthy again. --Scott White
Sean Manaea signs with Mets
Manaea was inspired by Chris Sale to drop his release point toward the end of last season, and the transformation was both immediate and striking. He threw seven two-hit innings with 11 strikeouts in his first outing with the new delivery and went on to post a 3.09 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 in his final 12 starts, his swinging-strike rate climbing to 14 percent after being 11 percent in his first 20 starts. Typically when a 30-something with an established track record has an uncharacteristic stretch of dominance, you should chalk it up to statistical variance and take it with a grain of salt, but because a dramatic mechanical change prompted this particular transformation, it could have staying power. The Mets, who reaped the benefits of it last season, clearly felt comfortable doubling down, signing Manaea to a three-year $75 million deal Monday. He makes for an advisable roll of the dice after the top 40 starting pitchers are gone. --Scott White
Jesus Luzardo traded to Phillies
While Philadelphia is considered to be a much tougher place to pitch than Miami, it's all academic until we're sure Luzardo is healthy again. The left-hander didn't pitch after June 16 last because of a lumbar stress reaction and wasn't particularly effective for the 12 starts he did make, averaging 1.5 mph less on his fastball than in 2023. It wasn't a total collapse, however. His slider and changeup both still had better than a 40 percent whiff rate, and his 13.7 percent swinging-strike rate would have ranked ninth among qualifiers. But he tends to get hit hard and, judging from the ups and downs in his career, probably can't afford to pitch in a diminished state. I ranked him just outside my top 60 starting pitchers prior to this trade, and the tradeoff between venue and supporting cast is probably a wash.
Unfortunately, this trade likely ends Andrew Painter's candidacy for a rotation spot this spring. An injury to Luzardo or someone else could reopen the door, of course, but as things currently stand, the Phillies have a strong 1-5 without Painter. The 21-year-old lit up the Arizona Fall League in his return from Tommy John surgery and is among the top pitching prospects in baseball, but a delayed deployment might be in his best interest anyway. As for what the Marlins are getting back in this deal, the biggest piece is shortstop Staryn Caba, a top-100 prospect according to some publications. His glove is the real selling point, though, with much development still ahead of him as a hitter. --Scott White
Nathaniel Lowe traded to the Nationals
So, in the end, it's Jake Burger replacing Lowe in Texas, as the Rangers cleared up an apparent log jam at first base with this move. It makes the path to everyday playing time a bit clearer for both Lowe and Burger, which is the biggest takeaway here. I've been out on Burger at his 120-ish ADP in NFC drafts even before he was sent to Texas, but this does make that pessimism a little harder to justify, since the Rangers don't really have an obvious alternative at first base/DH if Burger gets off to a slow start. He's a solid low-end starter at the first base position for Fantasy, with big power upside and decent run production potential in a very good Rangers lineup, though given his poor on-base skills and defense, I still think there's an extremely low floor here.
Lowe is back in the CI discussion with this trade. The Nationals were reportedly in on some of the free agent first basemen, but will settle for Lowe, who had a decent season in 2024 despite hitting for little power. His 121 wRC was actually the second-best of his career, but Lowe is probably a better hitter in real life than in Fantasy given his limited power and average upside. He has hit right around .265 in three of the past four seasons, with a walk rate north of 12% and between 16 and 18 homers; the exception is 2022, when he had 27 homers and a .302 average. That's the clear outlier here, and Lowe is probably best served hitting at the top of the lineup rather than in a run production spot. He's a decent CI option – better in OBP leagues – but he's a fringe starter unless he taps into that power a bit more consistently. --Chris Towers
Carlos Santana signs with Guardians
And so the other shoe falls. Not long after shipping Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks, the Guardians sign his replacement in Carlos Santana, who of course has a long history in Cleveland and would appear to have something left in the tank heading into his age-39 season. Of course, at that age, you halfway expect his production to drop off a cliff, so it's a little surprising to see a contender with so little margin for error put so much trust in him. Theoretically, Kyle Manzardo could shift from DH to first base if Santana falters, but this signing at least confirms that Santana will have a full-time job to begin 2025. And considering he was last year's 18th-best first baseman in 5x5 leagues and 13th-best in points leagues (always his better format), he's likely (or at least halfway likely) to be of some use in Fantasy even if he's not a prime draft target. --Scott White
Josh Naylor traded to Diamondbacks
Whoa. There were reports Naylor might be on the move this offseason, and the Diamondbacks are a logical destination given that they just lost Christian Walker in free agency. But the return (right-hander Slade Cecconi and a competitive balance Round B draft pick) seems a little light for a 27-year-old who emerged as an All-Star and impact Fantasy bat last year, even if he's poised to become a free agent at season's end.
In any case, this move should theoretically hurt Naylor given that Chase Field rates as the worst home run venue for left-handed hitters over the past three seasons, but Statcast estimates that he'd have hit just two fewer home runs if he played every game there last season and that he'd actually have one more if he played every game there for his entire career. Other left-handed batters like Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte (a switch-hitter, technically) have made it work, so I'd say Naylor's stock holds steady with this deal. I also think he has some untapped upside given the mismatch between his consistently low strikeout rate and typically blah batting average. Some of that mismatch is owed to his tendency to put the ball on the ground, but his 2023 season, when he hit .308 with a .293 xBA, is the dream. I ranked Naylor sixth among first basemen -- just ahead of the man he's replacing, Walker -- prior to this trade, and I'm inclined to rank him there still. --Scott White
Paul Goldschmidt signs with the Yankees
The Yankees are betting on a bounceback from the 37-year-old Goldschmidt, who figures to be the team's everyday first baseman on the one-year deal. And Goldschmidt still does some things very well, sporting well above average quality of contact metrics in 2024, including an 82nd percentile average exit velocity of 91.2 mph and a 92nd percentile hard-hit rate of 49.6%. Goldschmidt's expected wOBA on contact in 2024 was .423, the worst mark he has posted since 2016, but still solidly above average – and it should play up even more in Yankee Stadium, a better park for power than his old home in St. Louis.
The problem is, Goldschmidt might be at the point where he has to cheat to get to that power he once came by so easily. His strikeout rate ballooned to a career-high 26.5%, with his underlying plate discipline metrics all moving in the wrong direction, too – he was making worse swing decisions and making contact less often when he swung. That's a bad sign, and one you can't necessarily bet on improving as he nears 40.
This is a mild park upgrade and a solid lineup upgrade for Goldschmidt, and it probably improves his chances of that bounce-back season the Yankees are hoping for. And, for what it's worth, Goldschmidt was better down the stretch, sporting a .379 xwOBA over his final 100 PA, compared to a .329 mark for the season as a whole -- and he cut his strikeout rate to 23% in September, too. Goldschmidt is no longer a good bet as your starting 1B in Fantasy, but as a corner infielder in a Roto league, he's a decent bet around the 15th round or so in drafts. --Chris Towers
Christian Walker signs with the Astros
The Astros continued the on-the-fly remake of their corner infield – and seemingly foreclosed the possibility of a reunion with free agent Alex Bregman – with the signing of Walker to a three-year, $60 million deal. It feels like a surprisingly light number for a player of Walker's caliber until you remember he will be 34 a few days after Opening Day, though he hasn't shown any real signs of aging so far. Walker has actually been remarkably consistent over the past three seasons, posting an OPS+ between 125 and 121, with a triple-slash line of .251/.335/.468 in 2024. An oblique injury during the summer limited him to 130 games, but he was otherwise on pace for another 30-homer season, finishing with 26, along with 84 RBI and 72 runs.
Walker is the platonic ideal of a solid starting Fantasy first baseman -- hardly a superstar, but not someone you ever have to think about upgrading from -- though his value to the Astros is a little greater thanks to three consecutive Gold Gloves. A right-handed hitter, Walker isn't quite as likely to benefit from the short porch in left field as new teammate Isaac Paredes, but it's still a nice landing spot for him – if Walker had played every game in Houston over the past three seasons, he would have hit 96 homers, a slight upgrade over the 93 he would have hit playing every game in Arizona. It's not necessarily a lineup upgrade leaving the league leader in runs last season, but the proximity to Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez makes it a fine landing spot, too.
Walker is at the age where you can reasonably downgrade him for some age-related risk, but we just haven't seen any sign of that coming – in fact, 2024 saw his highest average exit velocity since a brief 2017 cameo. Walker has been going off draft boards around 100th overall in early drafts, and he belongs in that third tier of first baseman – ahead of Spencer Steer and Vinnie Pasquantino, while whether you take him ahead of Josh Naylor or Triston Casas will mostly come down to personal taste. --Chris Towers
Max Kepler signs with Phillies
Kepler has long been a player who Fantasy Baseballers have believed was oh so close to finding another gear -- so long, in fact, that this move to one of the most hitter-friendly venues in baseball may be coming too late. He's on the wrong side of 30 and saw a sharp decline in production last season after hitting .260 with 24 homers and an .816 OPS in 2023.
But 2024 also saw him hit a ball as hard as 115.4 mph, tying a career-high and putting him in the top 5 percent in baseball. His strikeout rate came down a little, and his zone-contact rate was still verging on 90 percent, an elite mark. Not bad! On the other hand, his walk rate was a career-low and his chase rate a career-high, so I suspect he was pressing to make up for the time lost to knee injuries. Or perhaps he never felt quite right. In any case, if the knee issues are behind him (a big if, granted), he has a reasonable chance to bounce back in his new surroundings, offering the upside for 25-30 homers as long as he plays every day. And you can get him late even in five-outfielder leagues. --Scott White
Michael Soroka signs with Nationals
I hesitated to include this transaction in the Offseason Tracker because Soroka is such an afterthought in Fantasy, but the fact the Nationals signed him to work as a starter and are paying him a healthy sum to do so ($9 million) bolsters my belief that he may be a sleeper of sorts. He's had to reinvent himself after two Achilles surgeries and nearly three full years out of baseball, but his efforts began to bear fruit over his final 15 appearances last season. Working as a multi-inning reliever, he put together a 1.95 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and an incredible 15.3 K/9 rate.
He was more of a sinkerballer prior to the injuries and had fared well with that approach, but he's learned to lean heavily on his slider, throwing it more than 40 percent of the time during that successful stretch. Both it and his fastball also have a different movement profile than before. Whether those fixes translate over a starter's workload remains to be seen, but the Nationals are showing enough confidence that we should at least consider the possibility as our drafts are winding down. --Scott White
Cody Bellinger traded to Yankees
It's a remarkably straightforward trade: Bellinger (and $5 million) for middle reliever Cody Poteet. Yep, that's it. I'm not sure anything has fundamentally changed about Bellinger between 2023 and 2024. His production was worse, of course, as he dipped from an .881 OPS in 2023 to a .751 mark in 2024. But the fundamentals of his game didn't change very much. It's not unreasonable to expect better in 2025 now that he's going to be calling Yankee Stadium home for half of his games. To find out why, check out my full-length article. --Chris Towers
Tomoyuki Sugano signs with Orioles
The 35-year-old Sugano has had an illustrious career in Japan, twice winning that league's version of the Cy Young award and also capturing four ERA titles. One look at last year's numbers would suggest he's not slowing down, but the radar gun tells a different story, clocking his fastball in the low 90s rather than the mid-90s. Clearly, he's made it work for him, though, through pinpoint control and a confident mix of six different pitches, the splitter being the best. Other pitchers from the not-so-distant past have come over from Japan to make an impact in their mid-30s, with Hiroki Kuroda and Hisashi Iwakuma being two prominent examples, and the Orioles' $13 million commitment to Sugano suggests they're confident he can do the same. Understand, though, that if he succeeds, it would be in an understated, Michael Wacha sort of way rather than as a big bat-misser. --Scott White
Jeffrey Springs traded to Athletics
Springs returned from Tommy John surgery to make only seven starts last season before elbow fatigue set in, shutting him down for the final month or so. Even when he was healthy (presuming he actually was), his average fastball velocity was down about 2 mph, and seeing as a contender just traded him to a non-contender, it's reasonable to wonder if he's damaged goods. The Rays got back a couple interesting players in return, but no top prospects. The most notable is Joe Boyle, a right-hander with scintillating stuff but massive control problems that he still hasn't figured out by age 25.