It happens every year. You're cruising along without a care in the world when, suddenly, your best pitcher ... just stops pitching.
OK, so full shutdowns are no longer as common a method of innings management as skipped turns and early hooks, but teams that fall out the race are still known to hit the brakes from time to time. The bottom line is that you want to be prepared. The start of the second half is a good time to take stock of where younger pitchers are with their innings and potentially make some moves before the curtailing begins en masse.
Like, would you dare trade Shane McClanahan, who's been arguably the best pitcher in Fantasy to this point but is already nearing a career-high in innings? What about Alek Manoah? In both cases, you'd probably want another surefire ace in return (maybe more in McClanahan's case) to avoid selling low, but now is the time to consider such a move, before it's obvious to everyone what's happening.
Generally, an increase of 40-60 innings from one year to the next is acceptable, though it's not a hard-and-fast rule. Presuming a five-man rotation, most pitchers have 13 turns left. At five innings a start, that's 65 innings. Using that criteria, I've identified 18 pitchers who might not hold up. It doesn't mean they'll all be shut down, of course. For each, I offer my concern level as well as a description for how things could possibly play out. It's up to you to make a judgment call from there.
To preempt some of the what-abouts, I also considered Carlos Rodon, Kyle Wright, Triston McKenzie and Aaron Ashby for this exercise but decided they weren't at major risk of a shutdown or even a slowdown.
Note: Innings counts include minor-league and postseason totals. This year's are up to date through Monday, July 25.
Bieber was one of the premier innings-eaters before his shoulder injury a year ago, but him suffering that injury gives the Guardians cause for caution, particularly if they fall out of the race.
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The Yankees' big lead gives them the luxury of mixing in young arms like JP Sears and Ken Waldichuk down the stretch to keep vital playoff contributors like Cortes fresh.
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The Angels' six-man rotation will naturally space out Detmers' starts a little, but since he's already in uncharted territory for innings, you should expect them to cap him at 120 or so.
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The Mariners might shorten Gilbert's starts here and there to keep the innings increase under control, but he's too important to their playoff chances to shut him down completely.
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The Dodgers have a reputation for managing innings, but all bets are off for Gonsolin after the way they turned Julio Urias loose last year.
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Durability was an issue for Greene in the minors, and there's no reason to waste his 100-mph fastballs on a last-place finish once he's extended himself to 130 innings or so.
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Javier probably has enough cushion to ride it out, but if the Astros are running away with their division, they may shift him back to the bullpen anyway, particularly if that's where they intend to use him in the playoffs.
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Kirby would be an obvious shutdown candidate as a high-profile rookie already entering uncharted territory, but the Mariners may push him to the limit as they fight to end their playoff drought.
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Kopech's velocity has already been an issue in his first year starting, and he recently breezed past last year's inning total. The White Sox have enough rotation depth that I suspect they'll choose to play it safe with him even as they fight to stay in the division race.
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Lodolo's health history would justify a more cautious approach, but the Reds need to build him up to a point where a more typical workload is within reach next year, which probably means 100 innings or so.
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Injuries are the reason for Lopez's low innings totals and are a further reason for the Marlins to exercise caution, but they may be forced to lean on one of their veteran arms (presuming they don't trade him).
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The Blue Jays haven't held back with the big-bodied Manoah, who's necessarily entering uncharted territory in what's only his second professional season.
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Manager Kevin Cash has already said the Rays will need to begin managing the innings of their no-question-asked ace, especially since they'll need him to save something for the playoffs.
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A month-long absence for COVID-19 may have slowed down Ryan's accumulation enough for the Twins, but they could rethink things if they lose or extend their division lead.
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Sandoval might be OK as long as the Angels stick with a six-man rotation, but seeing as his career high in innings came way back in 2018, they may cap him at 130-140.
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A pitcher's first full season back from Tommy John surgery normally warrants an abundance of caution, but Severino's current absence for a lat strain will probably slow him down enough.
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Springs' last year as primarily a starter was 2017, which is also the only time he reached 100 innings. Don't be surprised if the Rays shorten his starts down the stretch.
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Strider's time in the bullpen gives him a pretty nice cushion, but the Braves may still choose to slow him down if they plan for him to be part of their postseason rotation.
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