It was fitting that Roki Sasaki made his first appearance in a game with the Dodgers at the exact same time I was working on my Breakouts 2.0 update. It felt like he was taunting me.
First pitch: 99.2 mph. Average fastball? 98 mph. Eight swinging strikes, including seven with that utterly absurd splitter of his, en route to five strikeouts and one walk over three innings of work. Yeah, he looked like one of the most talented pitchers in the world. Was it enough to get him into my Breakouts 2.0?
Spoiler alert: It was not. Talent was never really the question with Sasaki, though it was nice to see him sitting at 98 in a 46-pitch spring outing after his velocity dipped closer to 96 mph in his final season in Japan.
- Sleepers 2.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
- Breakouts 2.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
- Busts 2.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
But I still have trouble drafting Sasaki inside of the top 100 of drafts, because there's almost certainly a hard, and relatively low ceiling on how much he's going to pitch in 2025. The Dodgers will do what they can to avoid having him pitch on four day's rest – something he'll have little to no experience with – and we know they'll go to a six-man rotation at some point in May. Sasaki has never thrown 130 innings in a season before, and I have a hard time seeing them pushing him much past that point in his first season. They should be 130 really good innings, but there probably isn't much room for much beyond that, and unlike with other pitchers with inning questions – like Tyler Glasnow or Blake Snell – Sasaki's limitations will likely come on a weekly and per-start basis.
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Which is to say, even if Sasaki stays healthy, 140 innings might be close to the ceiling, and there will probably be some skipped and otherwise shortened starts along the way. Whereas, if Glasnow makes it through the season healthy, he's going to throw 160-180 innings. We just don't think he'll stay healthy.
But man, every time Sasaki takes the mound, I'm pretty sure I'm going to feel pretty dumb for doubting him. The stuff is going to play at the MLB level, though his fastball could be a bit more hittable than you might think if the velocity dips at all. It's a relatively low-spin four-seamer, and it moves in a fairly expected way – it is close to being a so-called "dead-zone" fastball, so the velocity will be key.
But that splitter? Oh my goodness, there's nothing typical about that pitch. In fact, it might immediately be one of the strangest pitches in baseball – which probably explains why BaseballSavant.com was classifying it as a slider, cutter, and changeup initially. But it's just a truly unique splitter. Sometimes, it generated typical splitter movement, with big, late drop and arm-side run.
But more than a few times, it looked like a gyro slider, either generating no horizontal movement or even a couple inches of glove-side movement. Because he throws the pitch hard and with very little spin, there are, weirdly, some knuckleball-y characteristics to how the pitch moves, with late, unexpected movement that should absolutely eat hitters up. This is not a pitch hitters are going to be able to sit on – without even taking the 98 mph fastball into account – and it should be effective against hitters of both handedness. I don't want to overreact, but this might already be one of the best pitches in baseball.
I don't think Sasaki is already one of the best pitchers in baseball, at least not yet. But, with his velocity up as much as it was in this outing, it might be tough to justify keeping him on my Busts 2.0 list when I write it next week.
We'll answer that question when we get there. For now, let's talk Breakouts 2.0. And, to be clear, I don't care what your definition of the word is, or whether my picks fit within it or not. I'm expecting each of the guys on my list to be better than they were last season; to be better than they've ever been, in most (though not all) cases. But more importantly, I expect each of the players below to be hugely impactful for your Fantasy team, both relative to cost and in a vacuum.
We're looking for difference-makers today, and here are 15 I'm considering in every draft:
Update: In light of Grayson Rodriguez's diminished velocity and subsequent triceps soreness this spring, I'm removing him from my Breakouts 2.0 column. He's more of a late-round flier unless we get some good injury news from him in the coming days.
Breakouts 2.0
We'll start with three new pitchers to add to my breakouts list to balance out a very hitter-heavy list otherwise:
Robbie Ray, SP, Giants
Even when he's throwing almost exclusively just his four-seamer and slider, Robbie Ray tends to be pretty good when he's healthy. So, his inclusion here doesn't really have much to do with the new changeup he's working on this spring … but it compels me, though. Last season, Ray came back from Tommy John surgery with an unsightly 4.70 ERA, but there was a lot going on under the hood to be excited about – 33.3% strikeout rate and well above-average whiff rates on three different pitches. He doesn't necessarily need a changeup to be a good pitcher, given what he already brings to the table, but I'm excited to see what he might be capable of if it turns out he has another weapon. For Ray, it mostly comes down to whether he can stay healthy, and last year's issues were mostly related to a hamstring, not his arm, so I'm not too concerned. If you're looking for this year's Chris Sale, Ray feels like a pretty good bet to punch well above his Draft Day weight.
Jordan Romano, RP, Phillies
Romano entered camp as a pretty significant question mark after a season more or less ruined by an elbow injury. He underwent surgery on the elbow in July and never pitched again, followed by the Blue Jays non-tendering him in the offseason, a sure sign of a lack of faith in his ability to be a difference maker for them. Well, Romano is already pitching this spring and he looks no worse for the wear, with his fastball sitting comfortably in the mid-90s and his slider looking as tough to hit as ever. That's no guarantee that Romano will remain healthy or effective – and the Phillies have been frustratingly willing to go with multiple high-leverage relievers at times – but he has looked good enough that I'm willing to bet on him being a very valuable Fantasy reliever once again.
Justin Martinez, RP, Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks haven't come close to announcing who their closer is, with Martinez in the mix along with A.J. Puk and Kevin Ginkel. But I want to put my money down on Martinez here, who has looked as nasty as ever this spring – maybe even a tough nastier, with his fastball reaching 103.5 mph in a recent outing. He was already one of the hardest throwers in baseball, with two different very good fastballs, plus a couple of breaking balls with whiff rates over 45%. Puk is a lights-out reliever in his own right, and Ginkel is good enough to get the job done, too. But Martinez looks the part of a dominant late-inning reliever, and going with him will give more flexibility to use Puk against the toughest lefties in the lineup, too. So, I'll put my money down on Martinez building on last season's run as closer and emerging as a potentially elite option for Fantasy.
And here's who is staying from Breakouts 1.0:
Willson Contreras, C, Cardinals
The plan remains for Contreras to be the Cardinals' primary first baseman, and that's where the breakout hype is coming from. Even as he approaches his mid-30s, Contreras remains one of the better hitting catchers in baseball – among catchers with at least 800 plate appearances over the past two seasons, Contreras has the highest wRC+ at 133. In fact, his per-game production is very comparable to his younger brother, William, the No. 1 player drafted at the position in basically every league in 2025 – given the same number of games in that span, Willson would actually have five more homers, and the same number of steals, though with 40 fewer runs and 25 fewer RBI. Okay, he's not as good as his little brother. And playing first base instead of catcher is no guarantee that the 33-year-old will suddenly stay healthy. But he's certainly one of the best hitters at the position still and is now one of the few catcher-eligible players who might realistically get to 600 plate appearances this season, so the breakout call still fits.
Triston Casas, 1B, Red Sox
I thought about pulling Casas from the list because he's kind of just the default breakout pick at a position without a ton to get excited about. But you know what: I'm still excited! There were some worrying plate discipline trends even before his rib injury last season, and his home park still won't do him any favors when it comes to living up to the loftiest hopes for his power potential. But Casas is still just 25, and the last time we really saw him healthy for an extended period of time, he sure looked like a potential superstar – in the second half of 2023, he hit .317/.417/.617 with a 40-plus homer pace. He probably won't do that this season … probably.
Jordan Westburg, 2B, Orioles
With an ADP of 75.12 over the past two weeks, Westburg is no longer flying under anybody's radars, if he ever did. And his plate discipline last season was iffy enough that I'm not totally comfortable with how early he'll go in some drafts – there just aren't many successful major-leaguer hitters, let alone legitimate difference makers, who walk less than 5% of the time, as Westburg did in 2024.
Now that that's out of the way … yeah, I'm still in on Jordan Westburg. His aggressive style as a hitter might leave his OBP wanting, but it helped him make the most of his skills as a hitter last season, with quality-of-contact metrics that rate out as well above average across the board. He'll be helped by the Orioles decision to make the fences in left field in for 2025, and I even think there's room for growth here as a base stealer – Westburg was in the 91st percentile in sprint speed last season despite taking just six bags on nine attempts, and when manager Brandon Hyde talks this spring about wanting to steal more bases, you have to think Westburg is one of the guys he's looking at.
Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays
Speaking of preseason hype, there's plenty of it to go around for Camerino, who closed out the winter season with a flurry of homers and has opened the spring doing the same, with three in his first five games. The raw power here has always been viewed as plus-plus, but he didn't quite tap into it in his first real extended look in the majors last year, hitting six homers in 43 games with a pretty mediocre .301 expected wOBA. Of course, he was doing that as a 20-year-old with just 60 games to his credit above Double-A, so some growing pains are to be expected. A career .307/.374/.548 hitter at extremely young ages throughout his minor-league career, Caminero could be a Marcell Ozuna-esque slugger as soon as this season.
Masyn Winn, SS, Cardinals
When I wrote Winn up as a breakout back in January, the biggest question for me was whether we could count on him to run. He certainly has the speed for it, with a 43-steal season to his name in 2022 and 87th-percentile sprint speed, but as a rookie, he had just 11 steals all season, including just two in the second half despite spending most of his time as a leadoff hitter. Well, good news: Winn spent the offseason working on exactly what we wanted him to. That doesn't mean he's definitely going to be a 30-40 steal guy, but the upside is certainly there. I expect him to be a good source of batting average and runs, with the potential upside for 20 homers. If he gets to a big steal number, we could be talking about a top-75 pick this time next year.
Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers
I don't really need to make the case for Chourio here, do I? He's just about the most obvious breakout pick on the board, in large part because the breakout already happened last season, as I wrote in Breakouts 1.0: "He was a top-20 player in Fantasy from that point on, hitting .306/.363/.525 with a 26-homer, 26-steal pace. Just go do that for a full season and we're talking about a first-rounder." And, as I wrote a few weeks later, Chourio is one of the more obvious picks to jump into the first round next year, with the biggest room for improvement likely coming as a base stealer – despite elite speed and plenty of success in the minors, Chourio was just third on the Brewers in steals last season. I'm assuming that's mostly due to the fact that Chourio was a 20-year-old rookie and the team wanted him to focus more on what he was accomplishing at the plate than what he would do once he got on base. If they let him run wild the way they did with Brice Turang last season, we're talking about a potential .300 hitter with 30-homer, 40-steal upside. In other words, a potential No. 1 overall pick contender.
Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers
An oblique injury early in the spring seems to have put a stop to Langford's rise up draft boards, but don't be surprised to see him going off the board in the third round once he gets back in games. I won't be taking him there, but I can certainly see the argument for it – Langford finished his rookie season with 16 homers, 19 steals, and 148 combined runs and RBI despite missing time with an injury, in a season where he wasn't even particularly good outside of September. I'd prefer to see more obvious signs of some kind of outlier skill if I were going to invest a third-round pick in Langford – he's in the 98th percentile in sprint speed but was otherwise in the 60-65th percentile range in most of the underlying metrics we tend to care about these days. The lack of obvious weaknesses can be its own kind of superpower – that's kind of what makes Francisco Lindor so good – but the next step for Langford will come when starts consistently hitting the ball harder. I may not pay the price for him if it costs a third-round pick, but I can certainly see how he gets there.
Dylan Crews, OF, Nationals
Part of what I don't want to pay the premium for Langford is because Crews is typically still available 70 picks later, and I'm not sure there's much of a difference between the two of them in terms of talent. Langford had a better minor-league track record, albeit in a very small sample size, but the biggest difference between them at this point mostly seems to be that Langford got time to find his footing in the majors, and Crews didn't. Crews' .641 OPS in 31 games is extremely underwhelming, but it's worth remembering that Langford had a sub-.700 OPS as late as Sept. 10 of his rookie season. The underlying skill set looks very similar, and the prospect pedigree isn't far off either. Crews probably has a longer way to go, but the ceiling probably isn't much different. And the cost really is. One thing that really helps Crews is the fact that he might be a legitimate difference-maker as a baserunner after he stole 12 bases in just 31 games last season. Could he steal 35? 40? It seems like that could be on the table.
Spencer Schwellenbach, SP, Braves
Schwellenbach is a pretty obvious case for a breakout after the preternatural skills he showed in the majors in 2024 after a very brief run through the minors. A converted infielder and reliever, Schwellenbach saw a massive jump in innings last season with no apparent ill effects, sporting the 16th-best K-BB% rate among starters who threw at least 120 innings in 2024. Schwellenbach had two different pitches with a whiff rate over 40% among his full six-pitch arsenal and didn't really show much in the way of quality-of-contact damage. There's risk given the over 100-inning jump from 2023 to 2024, but there's also a real chance Schwellenbach is just the best pitcher on the Braves in 2025.
Bryan Woo, SP, Mariners
For me, the only question is health. It's a big question, as Woo left multiple starts last season with injury scares ranging from the forearm to his hamstring. But something clicked for him down the stretch, and Woo averaged over six innings per start over his final 11, with each of his seven highest single-start pitch counts for the season coming during that stretch. He's armed with an elite four-seamer and an elite two-seamer, both of which do exactly what you want – whiffs and lazy fly balls from the four-seamer, weak, harmless contact on the ground from the sinker, making him one of just two qualifying starters with an expected wOBA below .280 for both his sinker and four-seamer. The secondaries remain a work in progress, so it's a good thing Woo is on a team that has probably had more success than any in the majors when it comes to finishing off their young pitchers' arsenals. Woo's health is a big red flag, but if they consistently let him throw 90-plus pitches and he stays on the mound, I think Woo might have top-15 SP upside.
Jeff Hoffman, RP, Blue Jays
I'm surprised there isn't more excitement around Hoffman. I imagine the fact that the Braves and Orioles backed out of signing Hoffman over concerns raised during his physical, but I'm operating under the assumption that both teams were looking to sign Hoffman as a starter, which carries much more long-term risk of wear and tear than being a reliever does. We can take into account the concerns raised by the Braves and Orioles, but we shouldn't just ignore that the Blue Jays training staff and doctors were willing to sign off on the deal, which made Hoffman the unquestioned closer for a team with playoff aspirations. We also shouldn't ignore that Hoffman belongs on the shortlist of best relievers in baseball over the past two seasons, ranking 11th or higher among 144 qualifiers in that time in strikeout rate, K-BB%, ERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA. And probably any other stat you might be able to find. Are we overthinking this? Is Hoffman the best value among relievers in Fantasy right now? I sure think so.
