Last week we explored a series of statistics that help us to identify comeback candidates. Looking at the components of a player’s game -- strike zone judgment, contact, power and speed -- shows us trends that traditional stats like batting average (BA), on-base percentage (OBP), home runs (HR) and runs batted in (RBI) don't always reveal.
What follows is a list of hitters in the American League who are strong candidates to bounce back after off years. Each of these players experienced a major decline in at least one Fantasy category, but did not decline in measures of their underlying skill. As you prepare your draft list for an AL Roto or H2H league, make a note to target these players, as they represent some of the best bargains in the player pool.
Going around the horn, here are the top comeback candidates in the junior circuit.
Catcher: After a disappointing 2007 in Florida, Miguel Olivo will assume the backup role with the Royals. Though he sits behind John Buck on the depth chart, Olivo's statistical profile along with the opportunity to log playing time at 1B and DH makes him a prime comeback candidate. The trends in the table below show that Olivo's game didn't decline last year, only his luck did. When you hit with roughly the same level of contact and power, but you produce less (as measured by RC/27), that's bad luck. A total of 31 percent of the balls Olivo hit in play fell for hits in 2006; with the same abilities, his H/BIP should have been at the same level in '07. The drop to 29 percent was a fluke, so expect his usual mid-teens HR numbers along with improvements in all other categories.
| Year | Walk | Contact | Power | SBO | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2005 | 3% | 70% | 12 | 20% | 28% | 2.7 |
| 2006 | 2% | 76% | 13 | 6% | 31% | 4.0 |
| 2007 | 3% | 73% | 13 | 6% | 29% | 3.2 |
First Basemen: Brad Wilkerson's 62 RBI were his highest total since 2004, but surging power numbers and declining H/BIP tell us it should have been more. Wilkerson hasn't topped 350 ABs since '05, but with better health and luck, he could return to his pre-2005 levels. A .260 BA with 100 runs, 25 HR and 80 RBI is a strong possibility for the Mariners' new 1B/RF.
| Year | Walk | Contact | Power | SBO | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2005 | 13% | 74% | 13 | 11% | 32% | 5.0 |
| 2006 | 10% | 64% | 17 | 7% | 30% | 4.2 |
| 2007 | 11% | 68% | 18 | 6% | 28% | 5.3 |
Second Basemen: Jose Lopez was the same player in 2007 that he was in 2006. His walk rate, contact rate, power and speed numbers were nearly identical. So why did his BA dip 30 points, runs drop from 78 to 58, and RBI fall from 79 to 62? Blame H/BIP. Lopez went from a near-normal rate of 31 percent to an abnormally low 27 percent. Chances are that more of those balls in play will be hits in 2008, so look for a big rebound for this budding 24-year old.
| Year | Walk | Contact | Power | SBO | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2005 | 3% | 87% | 11 | 19% | 28% | 3.4 |
| 2006 | 4% | 87% | 8 | 5% | 31% | 4.3 |
| 2007 | 4% | 88% | 7 | 4% | 27% | 3.1 |
Third Basemen: Like Wilkerson, Eric Chavez’ Fantasy numbers have suffered over the last two seasons because of injuries. Also like Wilkerson, Chavez’ game has been as strong as ever when he actually plays. His power and plate discipline are still there, just as they were in 2005, when he hit .269-92-27-101. Look for numbers closer to this than last year's .240-43-15-46.
| Year | Walk | Contact | Power | SBO | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2005 | 9% | 79% | 14 | 4% | 30% | 5.5 |
| 2006 | 15% | 79% | 13 | 2% | 26% | 5.1 |
| 2007 | 9% | 78% | 15 | 8% | 27% | 4.4 |
Shortstop: After his miserable 2007 season in Boston, it’s hard to remember that Julio Lugo was on one of the AL's most sought-after shortstops just a year and a half earlier. His 2005 season, when he hit .295, scored 89 runs and stole 39 bases with Tampa Bay seems like light years ago. Last year, he was the same player but with worse luck. Six percent more of the balls he hit in play were caught for outs, despite the fact that he hit with a little more power. Look for Lugo to return to his 2005 BA level with a good shot at 10 HR and 80 RBI as well.
| Year | Walk | Contact | Power | SBO | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2005 | 9% | 88% | 8 | 26% | 33% | 5.8 |
| 2006 | 8% | 83% | 10 | 27% | 31% | 5.0 |
| 2007 | 8% | 86% | 9 | 29% | 27% | 3.7 |
Outfielders: As mentioned in last week's column, Nick Swisher is clearly a top comeback candidate. Here are a couple of others to round out your AL All-Comeback outfield.
Gary Matthews Jr.'s breakout 2006 season was questioned by many after reports surfaced that he may have ordered HGH from a pharmacy in 2004. We don't know if Matthews took HGH or steroids. We do know from the data below that his performance hasn't changed much since 2005, but his luck has. His phenomenal '06 campaign was fueled somewhat by an uptick in power and contact, but the most dramatic increase was in H/BIP. That rate came back to earth in '07 and then some. With a more normal H/BIP in 2008, this year's batting numbers should split the difference between his surprising breakout year and last season's disappointment. Look for 20 stolen bases to go along with a .275-90-20-75 line, as he plays another season under run-happy Mike Scioscia.
| Year | Walk | Contact | Power | SBO | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2005 | 9% | 81% | 12 | 9% | 28% | 4.8 |
| 2006 | 9% | 84% | 13 | 9% | 35% | 6.9 |
| 2007 | 10% | 80% | 12 | 16% | 28% | 4.7 |
David Delucci has had a hard time getting regular playing time since starting for the expansion Diamondbacks a decade ago. When the Indians handed him the job in left field last year, it looked like that was going to change. Instead, a torn hamstring derailed a season that was crawling along with a .230 BA. Delucci starts '08 penciled in again as the starting left fielder, and the trend suggests better times ahead. At 34, he may never recapture the power he showed in 2005, but fewer whiffs and a rebounding H/BIP should mean a BA in the .270s while still hitting around 20 HRs. Sounds a lot like Gary Matthews Jr.? It should ... compare their 2007 stats above and below.
| Year | Walk | Contact | Power | SBO | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2005 | 15% | 72% | 19 | 6% | 28% | 6.7 |
| 2006 | 10% | 77% | 17 | 6% | 34% | 7.3 |
| 2007 | 9% | 78% | 12 | 7% | 28% | 3.7 |
Designated Hitter: 2007 should have been known as a comeback year for Gary Sheffield. After a subpar surgery-shortened performance in 2006, Sheffield turned back the clock and played like it was 1998. He hit more homers (25) and stole as many bases (22) as he did nine years earlier. A deflated H/BIP, however, kept his BA (.265) and RBI (75) well below career norms. With a more typical number of balls falling in for hits, we should see Sheffield's usual numbers across the board in 2008.
| Year | Walk | Contact | Power | SBO | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2005 | 12% | 87% | 14 | 6% | 29% | 7.3 |
| 2006 | 8% | 89% | 9 | 13% | 30% | 5.5 |
| 2007 | 15% | 86% | 12 | 16% | 27% | 6.6 |
Comeback Player, Keeper Edition: Ever see a hitter get so hot that everything that comes off his bat falls for a hit? That was Adam Lind in September 2006. Putting up a Barry Bonds-like 10.9 RC/27 in his first major league callup, Lind was benefiting from an astronomical (and lucky) 44 percent H/BIP. The result was a .394 BA in 60 AB. Lind's .238 BA last year was no more indicative of his true talent than his '06 average. He is not assured of a regular role on opening day, but he is a starting outfielder's injury away from getting another chance. Expect H/BIP to rise back into the low 30s and bring his Fantasy numbers north with it. Given playing time, he should put up Fantasy stats very similar to fellow Blue Jay Alex Rios, but without the steals.
| Year | Walk | Contact | Power | SBO | H/BIP | RC/27 |
| 2006 | 8% | 80% | 19 | 0% | 44% | 10.9 |
| 2007 | 5% | 78% | 12 | 5% | 27% | 3.5 |
Next week: We turn our attention to the low-expectation, high-yield players over in the NL.
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
