matt-olson.jpg

What ... the heck?

First base is supposed to be big and beautiful, just a treasure trove of sluggers, but that's not what I'm seeing now. In fact, I regret to report that only four first basemen had 30-plus homers last year, and the leader, Pete Alonso, had just 34. The last time the home run leader at first base had so few was 2012.

You're not getting base-stealers at first base, obviously, so suffice it to say the position is as thin as it's been in a long time, a product of some of the mainstays getting older and some of the newcomers not living up to their potential yet. And while prospects like Nick Kurtz, Bryce Eldridge, and Jac Caglianone represent hope for the future, we're stuck with the same old cast of characters for now.

So how do we make the most of it? That's something I'm still working through. I've found in early drafts that first base is the position where I'm most likely to get boxed out. The studs at the position all go in quick succession, and the same is true for the mid-tier options, which means if you're not intentional about taking one, you're left to pick through the leftovers.

You might think, then, that I'd advise being intentional to avoid having a hole in your lineup from the get-go, but here's the thing ... even the quality first basemen don't feel as bankable as they have in the past. No position is deep, really -- maybe shortstop and outfield, up to a point -- so you'll never feel like you can skate at one. And if the increasingly scarce options at one position feel safer than the increasingly scarce options at first base, well, it stands to reason that you'll skip first base.

That's what I've been doing anyway, at least so far. Not in every draft, of course, and if timing works out, I certainly don't mind taking one of this first group ...

The Studs

2025 ADP2024 PPG2024 BA2024 HR
153.57.32330
19
3.31.28530
23
3.28.28222
27
2.75.24729
382.85.24034

When I say the quality first basemen don't feel as bankable as in years past, would you argue against it for any of these five? Sure, Vladimir Guerrero had his best season since his historic 2021 to re-establish himself as the top option at the position, but is there airtight explanation for why he was so much better? By the data, he should have been that good all along. And for as good as he was, he hit "only" 30 home runs, not the 48 he hit in 2021, so much of his elite standing depends on him being a batting average standout again. That's easier said than done.

Meanwhile, Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman may be starting to show their age a bit. Either is fine at the Round 2-3 turn, but elite production no longer feels as certain for either. For what it's worth, I expect Harper to have better fortune with runs and RBI this season, which would close the gap on Guerrero considerably, and I expect Freeman to bounce back in batting average, if not home runs and stolen bases. I kind of doubt either will ever be in consideration for a first-round pick again, though.

Matt Olson and Pete Alonso have long been two peas in a pod for Fantasy, with the conventional wisdom being that you should draft whichever is going later in a particular year. I suppose that's still the case, though it feels less like an opportunity than a resignation after they both disappointed last year. It's worth noting that Olson is no stranger to prolonged slumps and was actually the best first baseman in Fantasy over the final two months, which perhaps explains why he's the one going a round earlier even though Alonso had the better season overall. Alonso's frigid free agent market may also be contributing to the widespread skepticism.

Other Deserving Starters

2025 ADP2024 PPG2024 BA2024 HR
72
3.10.24331
752.93.25126
90
2.67.27127
92
2.88.22520
97
3.00.26618
1012.37.24113
1073.00.26219
1282.60.25129
155
2.39.24522
1642.74.3144

Some lower-end choices: Yandy Diaz, Michael Busch, Nate Lowe, Jake Cronenworth, Andrew Vaughn, Carlos Santana

This group is much bigger, but there's even more uncertainty within. Naturally, we can remove Salvador Perez from first base consideration since he's guaranteed to be drafted as a catcher, and I should note that Spencer Steer (outfield), Cody Bellinger (outfielder), Jake Burger (third base) and Luis Arraez (second) may also be drafted to fill some other position.

Christian Walker and Josh Naylor are the priciest of this group, and hey, they're probably fine. They both changed teams in the offseason (Walker seemingly for the better, Naylor seemingly for the worse) and have some batting average concerns, but they deserve to rank where they do at the position. If you look at my first base tiers, though, you'll see they're in the same one as Bellinger, Steer, Triston Casas and Vinnie Pasquantino, and since the whole point of my tiers is to signal how long I can wait at a position, I'm unlikely to pay the two-round premium for either Walker or Naylor.

One of those others, then? In theory, yes, though I find that my sights are usually set on pitching when Bellinger, Steer, Casas and Pasquantino go off the board, which tends to happen in quick succession. I'd be most hesitant to pull the trigger on Steer, who I've identified as a bust this year after he hit .198 with a .634 OPS in the second half last year. Casas I'm still willing to say has the most upside of the group, but his strikeout rate ballooned even before the rib injury that cost him four months, leaving real doubt as to what sort of player we're actually getting. Bellinger I consider to be a sleeper of sorts because I think Yankee Stadium represents his best chance to reclaim his power stroke, but the inconsistencies in his track record speak for themselves. Pasquantino's superlative plate discipline makes him a prime target for me in Head-to-Head points leagues, but the power is a bit lacking for 5x5 scoring.

I've been warming up to Burger and have come to think of him as part of that same tier, at least for 5x5 scoring, because of how the Rangers sought him out to play first base. With the assurance of everyday duty, we can pencil him in for 30 homers, and he may approach 100 RBI, too, in that lineup. As for Paul Goldschmidt and Luis Arraez, I'd have to be in a pretty desperate spot to take either one given that the former is in obvious decline and the latter is little more than a batting average specialist.

The Sleepers

2025 ADP2024 PPG2024 BA2024 OPS
1772.58.218.767
220
2.55^.270^.805^
234
2.38.271.733
2432.45.214.722
312
1.99.279*.991*
3161.44.267*.946*
317
2.88^.252^.807^
336
-----.294*.914*
3622.50.265.790
453
2.02.234.737
500
2.54.276.818

*minor-league stats
^2023 stats

Even the sleepers at first base don't inspire a great deal of confidence. Players like Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Tyler Soderstrom and Deyvison De Los Santos I'm mostly just listing here to acknowledge their upside, but I don't have a great deal of confidence in them meeting it. That's especially true for De Los Santos, who may not even have a job to open the year.

If you're asking who I like most of this group, though, it's Ryan Mountcastle, hands down. The Orioles' decision to move in the left field fence this year should mean Camden Yards plays fairer for right-handed sluggers, with Mountcastle being Exhibit A. You can read more about it in my Sleepers 1.0, but for as reasonable as his cost is, I'm considering him my ultimate fallback option at this treacherous position and will likely draft him more than any other first baseman, points leagues excluded.

Michael Toglia also represents a reasonable fallback option given his massive power potential and the safety net that Coors Field provides. It's just that his worst-case outcome is much worse than Mountcastle's, so why pay more for him? I've long been a fan of Jonathan Aranda, whose 2024 was derailed by injuries but who hit .339 with 25 homers and a 1.063 OPS in 95 games at Triple-A Durham two years ago and is in line to be the Rays' starting DH this year. Speaking of DH, that's the only place Kyle Manzardo is eligible, but he's likely to play some first base this year and showed signs of living up to his potential with a strong September performance.

The Base-Stealers

2025 ADP2024 SB2025 hopeAlso eligible
19
7
10-15
-----
23
9
10-15
-----
92
2520-25OF
97
915-20OF
155
1110-15-----
177
1010-15
-----
354
108-12-----
3571110-15OF

Like catcher, first base isn't really a position where you look to find stolen bases, with Steer representing the lone standout in the category (and as already mentioned, I have concerns about him otherwise). Bellinger has had a 20-steal season in the past and has the athleticism to do it again. Freeman and Goldschmidt have also been 20-steal guys before, but that's probably beyond their capabilities now. You're looking at no more than a handful of steals from anyone else here, with the possible exception of Toglia, who doesn't have much of a track record yet. His 162-game pace last year was 14 steals, which isn't so far-fetched, but it wasn't a big part of his game in the minors and likely won't be a point of emphasis in 2025.