Breakouts 2.0 is an opportunity to make additions. A lot has happened since writing Breakouts 1.0 back in January. Spring Training has started, we're learning new information and we did our position preview podcasts on Fantasy Baseball Today. Those are maybe our most important pods of draft prep season. We go in-depth on as many players as humanly possible. I almost always learn new things when doing research or listening to Scott White and Chris Towers.
- Sleepers 2.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
- Breakouts 2.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
- Busts 2.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
So again, this is my opportunity to add. Below you'll find five more players I think can take a big step forward this season. All of them were top prospects at some point. Now they have the opportunity to put everything together. The average draft position used is from Fantasypros, which takes a collection from five different websites. I've also updated my Breakouts 1.0 with February ADP and updated, relevant information. Just a heads up that I recently removed Grayson Rodriguez from this list as he's dealing with right elbow inflammation. Maybe he'll recover and come back strong but as of now he seems like a risky draft pick.
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Triston Casas, 1B, Red Sox
Like Rodriguez, Triston Casas is another former top prospect we've been waiting on. He was a first-round pick back in 2018, ranking as a Top-30 overall prospect in both 2022 and 2023. Casas entered last season with big expectations and got off to a nice start before suffering a rib injury that would derail his season. He still wound up hitting 13 homers in 63 games. That's a 30-homer pace over 150 games. The quality of contact supports his power, too. Casas posted a 90.2 MPH average exit velocity with a 13.3% barrel rate. That barrel rate would've ranked higher than Kyle Tucker, Rafael Devers, and Pete Alonso, had Casas qualified. The biggest question I had for Casas entering this offseason was if he would play against left-handed pitching. Well, so far it sounds like he'll be an everyday player.
Triston Casas on Alex Cora giving him the vote of confidence against both lefties and righties. pic.twitter.com/ys8H0QOrI7
— Tyler Milliken (@tylermilliken_) February 18, 2025
In a small sample last season, Casas performed well against lefties. He hit .250 with a .758 OPS, which would be more than serviceable. He's also set up in a prime lineup spot. Casas is projected to bat cleanup for the Red Sox behind Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, and the newly-signed Alex Bregman. You can't really ask for a much better RBI opportunity than that. The last hurdle for Casas will be strikeouts. Back in 2024, Casas struck out just 25% of the time. Last year that climbed all the way up to 31.7%. I believe the injury had a lot to do with that as we saw his whiffs rise after returning in August. I still think Casas is on a Matt Olson-like trajectory and if he stays healthy, I'm expecting 30-plus homers and at least 90 RBI.
Jared Jones, SP, Pirates
Jared Jones earned a spot in the Pirates' Opening Day rotation after 16.1 scoreless innings last spring. He carried that into the regular season and got off to an awesome start. In his first seven starts, Jones posted a 2.63 ERA, 0.78 WHIP with an 18.7% swinging strike rate! He looked like the second coming of Spencer Strider. Unfortunately, his control faltered and the walks started to creep in. Jones regressed and eventually went on the IL with a strained lat. He didn't look the same after returning in August, posting a 5.87 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with just a 10.9% swinging strike rate in his final six starts.
I'd like to see a more diverse pitch mix from Jones. Last year his four-seam fastball and slider accounted for 84% of his pitches, perhaps making him a bit too predictable. It sounds like Jones is on the same page. According to this interview, Jones has developed his curveball and changeup more this offseason. He's also added a new pitch, which some are speculating will be a sinker. We saw the Jones' upside early last season. Now he just needs to channel those elements while mixing in a few other pitches in certain situations. I think we could see an ERA in the mid-upper 3s with a sub-1.20 WHIP and over a strikeout per inning in 160-plus innings this season. I'd target Jones as my SP4 or SP5 with the upside to provide more.
Jeff Hoffman, RP, Blue Jays
Maybe I'm cheating with this one. Jeff Hoffman has already broken out. He's been one of the best relievers in baseball over the past two years, posting a 2.28 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 12 K/9, and a 16.4% swinging strike rate. According to Fangraphs, Hoffman posted the fifth-highest WAR among relievers over the past two seasons. We just haven't felt the extent of his talent because he wasn't the closer in Philadelphia. Well, that should change. Hoffman signed a three-year, $33 million deal with the Blue Jays this offseason and, it sure sounds like he's the closer.
Ross Atkins on the #BlueJays signing Jeff Hoffman:
— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) January 11, 2025
“We are excited to add Jeff to our bullpen. His arsenal, strike throwing, and ability to miss bats against all types of hitters is elite and will undoubtedly make us better. Jeff will get an opportunity to close games for us..."
The Blue Jays non-tendered Jordan Romano earlier in the offseason and were clearly searching for a replacement. While Hoffman doesn't have an extensive closer history, he did pick up 10 saves with the Phillies last season. It's also a cool, full-circle moment for Hoffman, who was drafted in the first round by the Blue Jays way back in 2014. Like most pitchers, the biggest downside for Hoffman is injuries. According to multiple reports, Hoffman failed physicals with two other teams that were interested in signing him, the Orioles and Braves. With that said, it sounds like both teams were interested in signing Hoffman to be a starter. Obviously, being a starter is much more demanding than a reliever, and would require a cleaner bill of health. To be completely honest, I'm not really worried about Hoffman's health if he's only pitching one or two innings at a time as a reliever. Hoffman is currently the RP18 in Fantasypros ADP but has Top-12 reliever upside.
Kyle Manzardo, UTIL, Guardians
I might as well stay on theme with another former top prospect. The Guardians acquired Kyle Manzardo from the Rays in July of 2023. He got off to a strong start in Triple-A last season, earning a promotion in May. Things did not go well in the majors. Manzardo was sent back to the minors, where he crushed the ball once again. He was recalled in September and this time it was different. We started to see some success in the majors. Over Manzardo's final 23 games, he hit .270 with five homers and an .873 OPS.
During that September run, Manzardo showed a propensity to pull fly balls, exactly what we want to see from a slugger. That will be a recipe for success if Progressive Field plays well for left-handed power again this season. Another reason for optimism is that it looks like Manzardo will bat second between Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez, at least against right-handed pitching. The last step is to become an everyday player for the Guardians. My assumption is that he will begin the season as a strong-side platoon but perhaps that role will grow. Manzardo did post solid numbers against lefties throughout his minor-league career. He's UTIL-only on CBS to start the season but I do expect him to play some first base and earn that eligibility at some point. Manzardo is a late-round option who could pop 25 homers with a batting average that doesn't hurt this season.
