If you've got one of the first five picks in your 2021 Fantasy baseball draft, there's roughly an 80% chance you're taking an outfielder with your first pick. Unless you go with a starting pitcher or Fernando Tatis, you'll end up with one of Ronald Acuña, Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, or Juan Soto. Lucky you.
You can't really go wrong with any of the four, though which one you get may determine the path the rest of your team takes. With Acuña or Betts, you've got a solid steals total locked in, which makes having to take a specialist a bit less important. Trout and Soto are arguably the two best hitters in baseball, but they probably won't get much more than a dozen steals in a best-case scenario -- Trout is almost certainly capable of more, but that part of his career might be past him.
The position obviously isn't short on star power even beyond that group, and let's not forget that Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger were right there at the top of drafts last year. However, even if you pass on outfield early, there are plenty of viable options to load your lineup with no matter where you draft them -- especially in a three-outfielder points league, where there are many more starting-caliber options than lineup spots. Things get a little tighter in a five-outfielder league, especially a categories league, but even then, you can often find yourself wishing you had one more roster spot left for another outfielder late in your drafts. It's that kind of position.
Dominate your Fantasy Baseball draft with our free Draft Kit, which gives you must-have sleepers, breakouts, busts, and rankings. Plus see the top players at each position, complete with winning projections. Get the Draft Kit in your inbox completely free here.
Outfield Preview
Among the elite hitters, Acuña probably has the widest gap between his value in points vs. Roto leagues. He'll go No. 1 overall in nearly every Roto league for his five-category dominance, but he's more of a late first-rounder in points because of his strikeouts. Of course, Acuña is still just 23 years old, and he showed signs in the shortened season of taking a step forward as a hitter, which could help close that gap. Of course, if you're in a Roto league, there isn't much to think about if you've got the No. 1 pick. And if you don't have that pick you might as well scratch him off your list right now.
| ||||||||||||
Betts' first season in Los Angeles went about as well as hoped, which is to say he had a pretty typical Mookie Betts season. He's hit at least .292 in each of the last three seasons with a 150-game pace of more than 35 homers twice and at least 25 steals twice. He's also got the plate discipline to be an elite contributor in points leagues, too. No matter what kind of league you're drafting for, Betts is sure to be one of the first five players off the board.
| ||||||||||||
Soto very well may be the best hitter in baseball, and he won't even turn 23 until after the regular season. What is there really to say here, except that we're witnessing history every time he swings the bat, and if he puts up an Albert Pujols-esque run of dominance, it wouldn't be particularly surprising. He may be a stretch as the No. 1 overall pick in Roto, but you'll be glad you got him anywhere else.
| ||||||||||||
The thing is, Trout usually isn't the best player in Fantasy, but it usually takes everyone else's career year to beat out his usual seasons. The unanswerable question about Trout is whether he's just done being a big contributor in steals. He swiped 11 in 134 games in 2019 and then only one in 53 in 2020, so it's a real concern. Not that he couldn't steal more -- his average sprint speed of 28.9 feet per second was in the 95th percentile in 2020 -- but he may be at the point where the risk outweighs the reward. Trout is the best hitter in baseball, a threat to hit .300 with 50 homers with 240 combined runs and RBI if he stays healthy, and that's enough to justify a pick in the top four. But don't discount the chance he's the No. 1 player, too.
| ||||||||||||
After that elite group, you've got a guy who was very much in that group before struggling in 2020. Yelich struggled in ways we've never really seen from him, as his strikeout rate spiked to 30.8% while his BABIP fell to .259, by far the worst marks of his career in both regards. However, he still had an elite hard-hit rate and average exit velocity and actually had no infield fly balls, a trademark that helps confirm that the swing was mostly right. Yelich is one of the few players who can steal 30 bases and hit 30 homers, and if he's right, he'll challenge for the top spot in Fantasy. It's a bet worth making.
| ||||||||||||
Harper used to be one of the most frustrating players in the league to have on your Fantasy roster, but he has really settled in nicely as a consistent five-category contributor. That's a far cry from when we thought he would be a consistent challenger to Trout's dominance, but he's a borderline elite Fantasy option who is a difference maker in both points and Roto scoring.
| ||||||||||||
Bellinger was a big flop coming off his MVP season, but there are reasons to be optimistic, still. His batted-ball profile didn't change all that much from his breakout, and he held on to his biggest improvement, striking out just 17.3% of the time, right in line with 2019. He is coming off shoulder surgery and only recently started playing in spring games, so there's definitely some risk in addition to the performance questions, but he has the upside to hang with anyone in the league when he's right.
| ||||||||||||
Tucker is a good example of why patience is needed even with elite prospects. He was stuck in Triple-A for a lot longer than we're used to seeing from top prospects, and he hadn't exactly lit the world on fire in his brief opportunities in the majors, so the hype started to die down entering 2020. However, he finally got the chance to play every day and proved what a valuable contributor he can be for Fantasy, in large part thanks to a 25-homer, 20-steal pace. He's got the underlying numbers to back it up, and hopefully, the Astros lineup regresses after a down year pretty much across the board, because we could be looking at a five-category stud.
| ||||||||||||
Seeing Merrifield swipe 12 bases in just 60 games in 2020 was an excellent sign after a concerning drop in his steals in 2019. Merrifield is unlikely to challenge for the league lead again, but if he can get close to 30, that is enough to make him stand out, especially since he's still one of the safer bets for batting average in the league.
| ||||||||||||
One of baseball's biggest underperformers based on Statcast data, Ozuna lived up to his potential in 2020, putting together one of the best seasons of any player in the league. Ozuna has always hit the ball extremely hard without being a big strikeout liability, which is why his relatively mundane production most years was always such a puzzle. The question you have to ask yourself is whether you think his struggles relative to expectations were just a fluke. And, if not, whether you think he's fixed whatever it is that caused him to underperform so consistently.
| ||||||||||||
We saw the good and bad sides of Robert in his rookie season. Through the end of August, he was hitting .298/.348/.612, with a per-162 game pace of 50 homers and 20 steals. The plate discipline was pretty bad, but he hit the ball so well that it didn't matter -- a lot like Fernando Tatis the year before. Unlike Tatis, however, Robert's bad habits caught up to him and he ended up with a .409 OPS in the month of September. The tools are as impressive as advertised, and if Robert can file down the rough edges, he can be an elite Fantasy option, but there's a lot of variance in his profile at present.
| ||||||||||||
There's always risk in buying into players who rely on speed for much of their value as they get into their 30s, but Marte has been remarkably consistent, hitting between .277 and .295 with between 15 and 23 homers and 25-33 steals (2020 numbers pro-rated to 150 games). It's possible this is the year he stops running and his value tanks, but it hasn't happened yet.
| ||||||||||||
Springer is coming off his two best seasons and finds himself with a new home at the top of a Blue Jays lineup on the verge of breaking out in a big way. His move away from the Astros was probably a lateral move at this point, so expectations should stay the same as he enters his age-31 season. He figures to be among the league leaders in runs scored while flirting with 40-plus homers and looks like one of the better values for a slugger with his mid-50s ADP.
| ||||||||||||
In 115 games since the 2019 All-Star break, Jimenez is hitting .294/.329/.550 with a 38-homer, 106-RBI pace. That's exactly the kind of player we were hoping to see when Jimenez was a prospect, so it's pretty easy to buy into that breakout. Jimenez won't walk or run much, so he really has to hit to carry a lot of value, but it's a pretty good bet that he will.
| ||||||||||||
When he's on the field, you know what Aaron Judge can do. Unfortunately, he has missed between 32 and 50 games in each of the last three seasons since his rookie season. And even during that season, he dealt with a shoulder injury late in the campaign. It's worth wondering if he's built to stand up to playing a full MLB season, and given that, you'd rather see more of a discount than his current fifth-round ADP. That being said, Judge can still be an elite hitter when on the field, so there's plenty of upside here, too.
| ||||||||||||
Another draft season, another opportunity to talk yourself into a Nick Castellanos breakout. This time, however, the breakout has already happened. Castellanos took a big step forward as a power hitter after a trade away from the Tigers in 2019, and then he posted a career-high .261 ISO in 2020. Unfortunately, his BABIP fell 80 points and his strikeout rate spiked, resulting in by far his worst batting average. Bet on the batted-ball skills and better luck, and it's not hard to see Castellanos finally putting it all together.
| ||||||||||||
Meadows struggled in 2020, but he had a pretty good excuse after recovering from COVID-19. Maybe 2019 was the fluke, but it's hard to ignore the kind of upside Meadows brings to the table -- we're talking about potentially 30-plus homers and 15 steals with a good batting average. He's hitting for a ton of power in spring, and looks like he's back to being himself again.
| ||||||||||||
Between the regular season and playoffs, Arozarena appeared in 48 games, and he was an absolute superstar. He hit .324 with 18 homers in those 48 games, and he added five steals for good measure. He never played anywhere near that level in the minors and he was an old rookie, but if you're the gambling type, Arozarena is an awfully fun player to have a stake in, especially with batted-ball data that suggests this wasn't entirely a fluke. At the very least, you should get some power and speed from him.
| ||||||||||||
Even coming off a season when he hit .322, Conforto continues to be overlooked. That average was unsustainable -- he's a .259 career hitter -- but Conforto has 33, 28, and 27 homers (in 109 games!) in his previous three seasons, and he'll score and drive in plenty of runs in this Mets lineup. Let others chase the sexy names, let Conforto fall to you in the sixth or seventh round and bank his stable production.
| ||||||||||||
Grisham's ultimate upside may depend on just how much he continues to run. After stealing 11 bases in 107 games in 2018 and 13 in 148 in 2019, he swiped 10 in just 59 games in 2020 to go along with 10 homers. If the Padres are going to let him run enough to steal 20-plus bases, it gets a lot easier to overlook the warts in Grisham's profile as a hitter -- the 25.4% strikeout rate and 16.0% infield flyball rate chief among them. With a borderline fifth-round ADP, there's a decent amount of risk here.
| ||||||||||||
Blackmon will turn 35 during the season, and it's worth asking just how long he can continue to outrun Father Time. Calling Coors Field home helps cover up for signs of decline, but at some point, it's going to catch up to him. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rates fell to a five-year low in 2020, and the Rockies lineup is bound to take a step back without Nolan Arenado. Blackmon figures to be a solid bet for batting average, but that might be the only place he really stands out anymore.
| ||||||||||||
Lowe took a significant step forward in 2020, cutting his strikeout rate from 34.6% to 25.9% without sacrificing anything in terms of power. He's one of the few players on the Rays you can count on to play just about every day, and if the gains he made stick, he could be a plus power hitter who doesn't hurt you in batting average.
| ||||||||||||
Gurriel took a step forward in 2020, but it wasn't a huge one. Gurriel has been a sneaky-productive hitter for a couple of years now, albeit a somewhat streaky one, but he's got the batted-ball data to back it up and doesn't strike out much either. That Blue Jays lineup should be even better with the addition of George Springer, though Gurriel may hit closer to the bottom of the lineup than the top, which could limit his production.
| ||||||||||||
Hernandez has always had loud tools, but he finally turned it into elite production in 2020, with his batting average soaring 69 points. He had a 40-homer pace and backed it up with a 93.3 mph average exit velocity and 52.7% hard-hit rate. Of course, he's always hit the ball hard, and he still struck out 30.4% of the time, so there's a lot of risk here.
| ||||||||||||
Don't forget about ...
Gallo gave back all of the gains he had in 2019, becoming a more extreme fly ball hitter than ever before while hitting the ball weakly too often. When he's locked in, Gallo is one of the best power hitters in the game, and if you play in an OBP league, he's a top-20 option at the position. Even in AVG leagues, however, he can help you make up for a lack of homers in a hurry.
| ||||||||||||
Oh, what do we do with Byron Buxton? He remade his swing to generate more fly balls in 2019, and he's hitting .259/.299/.534 over the last two seasons as a result. His per-162 pace over that span? 30 homers, 21 steals. Injuries are always a concern, and you'd like to see him get on base more given his speed, but the results have been impressive. There are always the injury concerns, and a 10th-round-pick isn't nothing, but if this is the season Buxton finally manages to stay healthy, we could be looking at a real breakout campaign.
| ||||||||||||
Progress is often not linear, and Happ is a good example of that. He looked like a potential star in the making early on in his career, but then had to spend most of 2019 down in the minors as his strikeout rate ballooned. However, he did come back as an improved contact hitter in 2019, and he held on to most of those gains in 2020. In 115 games over the last two seasons, Happ has hit .260/.350/.530, and the most promising thing about his 2020 might be that he sustained those gains despite facing lefties more often. Happ's offensive profile actually looks a lot like Max Muncy's, and though he doesn't have the latter's multi-eligibility, that still looks like a significant discount in the 14th round.
| ||||||||||||
Verdugo had a sort of strange first full season. On the whole, the results looked like what you were hoping for -- .308/.367/.478 as an everyday player -- but he struck out a bit more than we expected, at 20.4%. You can look at that two ways: 1) That he hit the ball well enough to have a .300-plus average bodes well for his hoped-for improvement in strikeouts; 2) If he doesn't improve that strikeout rate, there's a lot of risk, because he's kind of an empty batting average source. Verdugo could be the next Michael Brantley, but the strikeout rate is a red flag.
| ||||||||||||
Outfield Sleeper, Breakout, & Bust
Adell will have to earn his next opportunity, and rightly so after he struggled as a rookie. But let's not bury a guy who made his MLB debut at 21 with just 224 career games as a professional -- during a season where everyone's routines were shaken up and the game looked little like it does during a normal season. Tough circumstances to make your debut in, but even then, there were definitely still some bright signs amid the struggles. Adell had a 90.6 mph average exit velocity and 115.5 mph max exit velocity, signs that the tools did translate in some ways. He had way too much swing-and-miss -- including the lowest in-zone contact rate in the majors -- but he's still an elite talent, one who doesn't even turn 22 until a week after Opening Day. The book hasn't been written on Adell yet, so don't forget about him in the later rounds if you've got a deep bench.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
If anyone deserves a mulligan for 2020, it's Meadows, who missed several weeks at the start of the season while dealing with COVID and then suffered a strained oblique that ended his regular season in September. There are always playing time concerns in Tampa, but if Meadows is right, he should be one of the few lineup mainstays. He has more or less held his own against left-handed pitching, with a .743 OPS, so it's all about getting back to his pre-2020 levels. Meadows' average exit velocity and hard-hit rate were in line with what we saw during his breakout 2019, so there's reason to be optimistic. Strikeouts were the main thing holding him back, but that hasn't been an issue for Meadows in the past, so expect some regression there. He has the potential to hit 30 homers and steal 15 bases, and there just aren't many guys like that in baseball these days -- especially not ones who can hit .287 or better, like he did in his first two seasons. Meadows was a fourth-round pick on average a year ago; now, he's an eighth rounder. Buy the dip.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
If Jimenez is going to hit 35-plus homers and bat close to .300, there's not going to be any point in talking about any limitations in his game. George Springer isn't a perfect player, but he's so productive that his flaws don't really matter. The question is whether Jimenez can truly stay at the level he reached as a hitter in 2020, because the margin for error for him is awfully slim. He doesn't walk, he strikes out a decent amount, and if you set the over/under on stolen bases at 0.5, smart money would be on the under. This means he has to hit and hit well, for both average and power, to justify an early-round cost. Obviously, Jimenez is immensely talented, but he also hits the ball on the ground nearly 50% of the time, which means he's got to turn what fly balls he does hit into home runs at a very high rate. And, since he strikes out about a quarter of the time and isn't likely to leg out many grounders, which means homers are going to make up a decent amount of his hits. You can start to see how things can go wrong relatively easily for Jimenez, especially since he's also scored runs at a relatively slow pace due to his low OBP. It's entirely possible Jimenez can be that elite power hitter, but I'd rather have George Springer or Marcell Ozuna. There are more ways things can go right for them, and they're cheaper to boot.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
Third Base Top Prospects
1. Jarred Kelenic, Mariners
Age (on opening day): 21
Where he played in 2019: low Class A, high Class A, Double-A
2019 minors: .291 BA (443 AB), 23 HR, 20 SB, .904 OPS, 50 BB, 111 K
The Mariners managed to resist the urge to call up Kelenic even as they found themselves on the fringes of contention, but there may not have been a prospect who screamed for a promotion more. He's an advanced hitter with a plan for each at-bat and enough speed to make him a true five-category threat when he arrives.
Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring
2. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners
Age (on opening day): 20
Where he played in 2019: low Class A, high Class A
2019 minors: .326 BA (328 AB), 12 HR, 26 2B, .929 OPS, 25 BB, 76 K
It's a worthy debate whether Kelenic or Rodriguez is the better Mariners outfield prospect, but with Rodriguez a step behind and a couple steps slower, Kelenic gets the nod on this list. Rodriguez's bat might play even louder, though, which could make him the best hitter the Mariners have developed since that other Rodriguez guy 25 years ago.
Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: midseason hopeful
3. Randy Arozarena, Rays
Age (on opening day): 26
Where he played in 2019: Double-A, Triple-A, majors
2019 minors: .344 BA (343 AB), 15 HR, 17 SB, 1.003 OPS, 37 BB, 71 K
2020 majors: .281 BA (64 AB), 7 HR, 4 SB, 1.022 OPS, 6 BB, 22 K
A late bloomer who couldn't even crack this list last year, Arozarena wound up hitting .333 with 17 homers in 141 at-bats between a late-season tear and postseason explosion. The performance was too loud for too long to dismiss as a fluke, which justifies a bold ranking in a process that's mostly wish-casting anyway.
Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: pencil him in
4. Dylan Carlson, Cardinals
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2019: Double-A, Triple-A
2019 minors: .292 BA (489 AB), 26 HR, 20 SB, .914 OPS, 58 BB, 116 K
2020 majors: .200 BA (110 AB), 3 HR, 1 SB, .616 OPS, 8 BB, 35 K
One of the most hyped prospects heading into 2020 struggled initially but looked better in a late-season return and into the playoffs, which should give him a role from the get-go this year. As a hitter, he profiles a bit like Michael Conforto, but there's a speed element that could make him potentially more impactful overall.
Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: pencil him in
5. Alex Kirilloff, Twins
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2019: Double-A
2019 minors: .283 BA (375 AB), 9 HR, 18 2B, .756 OPS, 29 BB, 76 K
2020 postseason: 1 for 4
The Twins showed supreme confidence in Kirilloff by calling him up to start their lone playoff game and then doubled down by non-tendering Eddie Rosario in the offseason. A wrist injury hindered his production in 2019, but a strong performance at the alternate site suggests he's more like the guy who hit .348 with 20 homers, 44 doubles and a .970 OPS in 2018.
Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring
6. Jasson Dominguez, Yankees
Age (on opening day): 18
Where he played in 2019: did not play
The hype for Dominguez continues to build even though he has yet to play his first minor-league game. Word has it he was on scouts' radar since age 13, has produced exit velocities of 108 mph from both sides of the plate since age 16, and could make it as a shortstop if he wasn't so good in center field. We may have a genuine baseball prodigy here.
Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: don't count on it
7. Kristian Robinson, Diamondbacks
Age (on opening day): 20
Where he played in 2019: short-season Class A, low Class A
2019 minors: .282 BA (255 AB), 14 HR, 17 SB, .881 OPS, 31 BB, 77 K
Robinson is becoming a favorite of Fantasy evaluators after making quicker than expected work of the lower minors. He was thought to be more of a project after signing out of the Bahamas but already has a simple swing and disciplined approach, generating the sort of hard contact that should neutralize any contact deficiencies.
Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: don't count on it
8. Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles
Age (on opening day): 24
Where he played in 2019: Triple-A
2019 minors: .312 BA (520 AB), 25 HR, 35 2B, .871 OPS, 24 BB, 130 K
2020 majors: .333 BA (126 AB), 5 HR, 5 2B, .878 OPS, 11 BB, 30 K
Mountcastle can't field, but he can hit, and now we know he can hit in the majors as well, his all-fields approach and modest strikeout rate giving him a high batting average floor. It's a profile not too unlike Nick Castellanos, actually, but the defensive limitations nonetheless gives him a narrow margin for error.
Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: pencil him in
9. Cristian Pache, Braves
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2019: Double-A, Triple-A
2019 minors: .277 BA (487 AB), 12 HR, 9 3B, 36 2B, .802 OPS, 43 BB, 122 K
2020 majors: 1 for 4, 2 K
Pache rates as a perennial Gold Glove winner in center field, which is largely the reason he shows up in the top 10 on traditional prospect lists. But evaluators seem reluctant to put a limit on his offensive potential, presumably because he's so athletic and makes such consistent contact that it won't take much to set him off. He didn't seem overmatched when pressed into action in the NLCS.
Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring
10. J.J. Bleday, Marlins
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2019: high Class A
2019 minors: .257 (140 AB), 3 HR, 8 2B, .690 OPS, 11 BB, 29 K
The fourth overall pick in 2019 got an aggressive assignment straight out of college but held his own at high Class A. A full season of numbers would have made for a more confident outlook now, but given the Marlins' apparent confidence and the track record of the Vanderbilt baseball program, Bleday seems likely to meet his potential as a middle-of-the-order bat.
Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: midseason hopeful
So which 2021 Fantasy baseball sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which undervalued first baseman can help you win a championship? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy baseball rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Will Smith's huge breakout last season, and find out.
