The Mets have the greatest starting rotation evaaaaaaah!
So went the story at this time a year ago, but of course we all know what came next. Matt Harvey lost his way and then his rib, submitting to thoracic outlet surgery in July. Jacob deGrom hurt his elbow. Steven Matz hurt his elbow, then his shoulder. And Zack Wheeler never did come back from the Tommy John surgery he had now almost two years ago.
And yet they went to the playoffs anyway -- a testament to the roster GM Sandy Alderson built around that pitching staff, not to mention pitching coach Dan Warthen's ability to make something out of nothing (looking at you, Robert Gsellman (with a wink at deGrom)).
So now what? Presumably, their outlook is bright since they're getting all of these pitchers back, but are they really? And will they be the same? And can we assume it won't just happen again?
The 2016 Mets serve as the cautionary tale for a pitching staff full of 98 mph-throwing slider specialists. And they enter this season with an even thinner margin for error because they're already damaged goods. Even America's ace, Noah Syndergaard, had an elbow scare during the year, though it didn't cost him significant time or put him under the knife. It's only fair, then, to conclude that another 87-win season isn't quite the worst-case scenario.
Syndergaard will of course be the highest-drafted Met, but the second-highest, despite all of their pitching talent, will actually be a hitter, Yoenis Cespedes, who got a new contract this offseason even though he's not the most natural fit. No, if they're going to lose a corner outfielder, it'll be either Jay Bruce or Curtis Granderson, two lower-level mixed-league picks who aren't as instrumental to their success.
The Mets have health concerns on offense as well, with both of their corner infielders coming back from season-ending injuries. They do have late-season revelation Jose Reyes in play, though, if David Wright's degenerative back doesn't hold up. Neither Neil Walker nor Asdrubal Cabrera is an out-and-out stud, but few teams can boast two 20-homer guys up the middle, and catcher Travis d'Arnaud still has some offensive potential, even if it's long forgotten by now.
| 1 | |
| 2 | |
| 3 | |
| 4 | 
Jay Bruce
RF
|
| 5 | 
David Wright
3B
|
| 6 | 
Neil Walker
2B
|
| 7 | 
Lucas Duda
1B
|
| 8 | |
| Bench | 
Jose Reyes
3B/SS
|
| Bench | |
| Bench | 
Juan Lagares
OF
|
| 1 | 
Noah Syndergaard
RHP
|
| 2 | 
Jacob deGrom
RHP
|
| 3 | 
Matt Harvey
RHP
|
| 4 | 
Steven Matz
LHP
|
| 5 | 
Robert Gsellman
RHP
|
| Alt SP | 
Zack Wheeler
RHP
|
| Closer | 
Jeurys Familia
RHP
|
| Setup | 
Addison Reed
RHP
|
| Relief | 
Fernando Salas
RHP
|
| Relief | 
Hansel Robles
RHP
|
| Relief | 
Seth Lugo
RHP
|
At what point is Matt Harvey worth the gamble?
Thoracic outlet surgery doesn't have near the history Tommy John surgery does, and what little it has might send you bolting the other direction on Draft Day. But many of those pitchers -- Josh Beckett and Chris Carpenter, for instance -- were nearing the end of their careers when they had it. A more recent example, Mike Foltynewicz, was only beginning his when he had the interior half of his first right rib removed late in 2015 to alleviate the pressure on his arm, and he went on to take the anticipated next step in his progression last year.
Harvey should be fully recovered by spring training, and if not then, soon afterward. And at that point, we'll see what he has left. It'll probably be less a matter of regaining his stuff than recapturing his delivery (which, judging by last year's results, was already compromised), and given that he'll be working with the same coaches who made him what he is today, it's probably just a matter of time.
So the remaining question is did it work? Did the procedure, with its limited number of case studies, solve the problem? I just can't answer that with any authority. I'm emboldened enough by Foltynewicz's recovery, though, to target Harvey as the last of the pitchers who I believe have at least a 50-50 shot of performing like aces, which puts him just inside my top 25.
How much should we downgrade Jeurys Familia?
Familia hasn't received a suspension yet for his domestic incident this offseason, but based on the precedent set by Aroldis Chapman and Jose Reyes last year, the assumption is he'll miss all of April and then some.
It's not a crushing blow to his value, but it should give you pause before selecting the reigning saves champ as your top reliever and may cause him to slip out of the top 12 altogether. Helping his cause is the existence of a clear handcuff in Addison Reed, who will be the undisputed closer while Familia is sidelined and likely won't attract much attention from anyone other than Familia owner. So by drafting Familia, you could have a stud closer for the entire season still. You'd just have to devote two roster spots to him for that first month instead of one.
There is perhaps the small danger of Reed performing so well during that first month that the Mets opt not to remove him. He does, after all, have closing experience from his White Sox days and was actually the more effective pitcher (1.97 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings) than Familia (2.55, 1.21, 9.7) in 2016. But if you plan on pairing Reed with Familia anyway, that remote possibility shouldn't at all dissuade you from targeting Familia on Draft Day. He checks in as my No. 11 reliever in both Head-to-Head and Rotisserie formats.
When will Zack Wheeler return to the rotation?
That's the proper way to phrase such a question because returning to the rotation and returning to the mound are two entirely separate events. And as rocky as Wheeler's attempted return from Tommy John surgery was last year, getting interrupted repeatedly because of renewed discomfort in the elbow, the Mets are at least considering something unconventional.
Wheeler would begin the year in the bullpen, working his elbow in slowly and preserving his innings for a presumed playoff run. This would have the added effect of bolstering the bullpen while Familia is out (because as you can see, it's pretty thin without him) and allowing Robert Gsellman to build off his late-season success.
It sounds like a win-win-win-win, which is why I'm going ahead and predicting it will happen, but of course there's a chance it doesn't if some other starting pitcher or Wheeler himself is sidelined to begin the year or if the Mets decide an unfamiliar role wouldn't be in the best interest of Wheeler's health. It would also mean he likely goes undrafted in standard mixed leagues, but with the hope of him being relief pitcher-eligible when he's back to starting. That would make him even more of a sleeper, at least in Head-to-Head points leagues.
