The No. 15 Texas Longhorns and No. 16 Iowa State Cyclones are fighting to remain alive in the Big 12 title race when they collide in a prime-time battle Saturday night (8 p.m. ET) at Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. The winner has a chance to compete in the conference title game pending the results of other key late-season conference showdowns, while the loser is all but assured of elimination from contention. The Longhorns are 2.5-point favorites, down from an opener of -3.5 in some markets. The Over-Under for total points scored has dropped from 50.5 to 49.5 in the latest Texas vs. Iowa State odds. Before you lock in your Texas vs. Iowa State picks, check out what SportsLine senior analyst Josh Nagel has to say.
The Longhorns are three-point favorites and the over-under for total points scored is 46.5 in the latest Texas vs. Iowa State odds. Before you make any Texas vs. Iowa State picks, be sure to check out what SportsLine senior analyst Josh Nagel has to say.
A Nevada-based expert with 20 years of experience in the sports wagering industry, Nagel specializes in handicapping college athletics. Moreover, he has had a keen eye for the tendencies of Big 12 programs and boasts a record of 7-2 on picks in games involving Iowa State or Texas over the past two seasons.
Three weeks ago, Nagel advised SportsLine members to anticipate a letdown spot for the Longhorns as a road favorite against persistent nemesis Oklahoma State (+3.5). The result: the Cowboys dominated most of the way and held on for a 38-35 victory. Anyone who followed Nagel's advice booked another comfortable winner.
Now, Nagel has studied Texas vs. Iowa State from every possible angle and released a strong point-spread selection that is only available at SportsLine.
Iowa State coach Matt Campbell was considered a rising prospect in the coaching ranks when left Toledo to lead the Cyclones. Now, he's perhaps the hottest name in the industry as he has been tied to several potential high-profile openings. He's gained his reputation by turning Iowa State from a perennial also-ran into a legitimate contender. The Cyclones won eight games last season, ending with a Liberty Bowl victory over Memphis.
This campaign has been even more impressive because Iowa State has dealt with injuries at several key positions. Senior quarterback Kyle Kempt was lost in the first game of the season with a knee injury, and freshman Brock Purdy is the third Cyclone start under center. Rushing leader David Montgomery has missed time with various injuries and was involved in a fight last week against Baylor. Montgomery is suspended for the first half of Saturday's game.
But their success under Campbell is no guarantee of a cover against a resilient Texas squad that remained in the Big 12 title hunt thanks to a gutsy victory last week.
The Longhorns (7-3) took control of the Big 12 race with their upset of Oklahoma, but saw their grip slip away with consecutive losses to Oklahoma State and West Virginia. Last week, they let a 17-point lead slip away in the fourth quarter when Texas Tech rallied for three straight scores and a 34-34 tie. But quarterback Sam Ehlinger led another game-winning drive, capped by his 29-yard touchdown pass to Lil'Jordan Humphrey with 21 seconds left.
Ehlinger finished with 312 passing yards and four touchdowns and zero interceptions. The defense forced three turnovers to help offset 595 yards of offense from the Red Raiders.
We can tell you Nagel is leaning toward the Over, but his much stronger play is on the side. He has identified the critical x-factor that should determine the spread outcome, and he's only sharing it at SportsLine.
Who covers in Texas vs. Iowa State? And what critical x-factor determines the spread? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump all over Saturday, all from a senior analyst who's hitting almost 80 of his picks involving these teams.
