It's a homecoming for quarterback Brennan Armstrong on Friday night when he leads the NC State Wolfpack into Scott Stadium to take on the Virginia Cavaliers in an ACC matchup. Armstrong started three seasons for the Cavaliers before transferring to NC State. He has helped the Wolfpack to a 2-1 mark so far, and they rebounded from a loss to Notre Dame with a 45-7 against VMI last Saturday. The Cavaliers (0-3) are the only Power Five team without a victory this season. Their 42-14 loss to Maryland last Friday followed setbacks to James Madison and Tennessee. NC State won the most recent meeting between these teams, 38-21 at Scott Stadium in 2020, and have prevailed in four of the past five.

Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET in Charlottesville, Va. The Wolfpack are 7.5-point favorites in the latest NC State vs. Virginia odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 47.5. Before locking in any Virginia vs. NC State picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a stunning profit of nearly $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on NC State vs. Virginia and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine to see the model's CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for Virginia vs. NC State: 

  • NC State vs. Virginia spread: Wolfpack -7.5
  • NC State vs. Virginia over/under: 47.5 points
  • NC State vs. Virginia money line: Wolfpack -318, Cavaliers +255
  • NCST: NC State is 14-12 ATS in its ACC games since 2020. 
  • UVA: Virginia is 15-9 ATS in conference games since 2020.
  • NC State vs. Virginia picks: See picks at SportsLine 
  • NC State vs. Virginia live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why NC State can cover

Armstrong has a ton of experience, and he will want to put on a show in a stadium where he made a lot of memories. He should be able to do it against this defense. Armstrong has 679 passing yards and three touchdowns and has rushed for a team-high 161 yards and another three scores. The Wolfpack rushing offense averages 146.5 yards per game. Jordan Houston (96 yards), Kendrick Raphael (92) and Michael Allen (7.4 per carry) should find holes Friday.

The Cavaliers are allowing 191 rushing yards per game, which rank 112th in the nation, and 452 total yards, also 112th. Virginia is 120th in points allowed (42.3), while the Wolfpack yield 29.5 (83rd). The NC State defense is yielding less than 200 passing yards per game, so it should be able to neutralize Virginia's strength. NCSU has nine sacks, and UVA has yielded 10. The Wolfpack are 11-13-2 against the spread as road favorites since Dave Doering was hired in 2012. See which team to pick here.

Why Virginia can cover

Virginia is 5-5 against the spread as an underdog under coach Tony Elliott, who took over last season. The Cavaliers need to get the running game going, and the Wolfpack's run defense isd allowing 5.2 yards per carry (112th in the nation). Perris Jones is the team's top rusher with 82 yards and two TDs, and fellow running back Kobe Pace has been flashing big-play ability. The senior has 62 rushing yards and has added 103 and two touchdowns on just five receptions.

The Cavaliers are 3-1 ATS as a home underdog under Elliott, and the passing game has the weapons to cause problems for NCSU. Receivers Malik Washington and Malachi Fields have combined for 37 receptions for 496 yards. Washington is averaging 16 yards per catch and has a 63-yard TD reception. Freshman quarterback Anthony Colandrea has 640 passing yards over the past two games, but former Monmouth star Tony Muskett could be back from a shoulder injury. See which team to pick here.

How to make NC State vs. Virginia picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total. The model also shows one side of the spread is hitting well over 60% of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine

So who wins NC State vs. Virginia on Friday, and which side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has notched a profit of almost $2,500 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.