There was a little more separation created between the contenders and those not quite ready for prime time following Week 12. Tennessee took a bad loss in more ways than one, and USC emerged from the Pac-12 pile to secure a spot in the league's title game. Rivalry week will surely bring some more unexpected results that could completely change how the College Football Playoff Rankings look entering the conference championship games ahead of Selection Sunday.
With two weeks left in the regular season, we are here to predict what the top 25 will look like when the committee announces its field Tuesday night. It is a warmup act for the warmup act, which is every edition of the CFP Rankings before the final one comes out after conference championship Saturday.
Before we get to the rankings themselves, here's a refresher listing some of key points the committee members consider when deciding a team's ranking beyond their on-field record:
- Strength of schedule
- Conference championships (when decided)
- Head-to-head
- Results vs. common opponents
- Results vs. ranked opponents
Thankfully, the committee's definition of "ranked opponents" is different than what you're used to seeing. The rankings they use are the prior week's CFP Rankings. They do not consider where teams are ranked when the games were played either in the CFP, AP Top 25, etc. Using game-time rankings is the most worthless way to determine "ranked opponents;" in fact, the committee specifically forbids the use of any poll that has a preseason starting point.
Notice that "game control" is not listed in the criteria. It never has been considered despite the term (or similar concepts) coming out of the mouth of the committee chairman at times the last few full seasons. (The CFP does not have a way to measure "game control" -- I've seen the data the committee uses -- but let's not kid ourselves: They do talk about it.)
With all that in mind, here is how the CFP Rankings will look this week. Remember: This is not necessarily how I would vote if I were on the committee. I am merely predicting what they will do Tuesday night.
Note: This projection is based only on results to this point. It does not reflect the final forecast for the playoff. The complete bowl playoff and bowl projections through the end of the season can be found here.
College Football Playoff Rankings prediction
| 1 |  |
| The Bulldogs' 16-6 win over Kentucky was never really in doubt, but it was still a lackluster performance, at least offensively. They are just biding their time until they get to the game that matters, which is still two weeks away. Last week: 1 | |
| 2 |  |
| The Buckeyes got a push from Maryland, which led 13-10 at the half. Ohio State scored 17 unanswered points in the third quarter and went on to win 43-30. Unlike Georgia, the game that matters for Ohio State this week. Last week: 2 | |
| 3 |  |
| Michigan may have been looking ahead a little too much. The Wolverines needed a field goal with 9 seconds left to beat Illinois. Star RB Blake Corum left with an injury, though he said he will be back for the Ohio State game. Last week: 3 | |
| 4 |  |
| The Horned Frogs did Michigan one better. TCU had to run the field goal unit onto the field for a game-winning kick as time expired. TCU is still waiting to find out who its opponent will be in the Big 12 Championship Game, Kansas State or Texas. Last week: 4 | |
| 5 |  |
| The Trojans took a good first step toward making a case for a spot in the CFP with a 48-45 win at UCLA. They also clinched a berth in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The win began a stretch of ranked opponents in USC's final three games. Notre Dame visits this week. Last week: 7 | |
| 6 |  |
| The Tigers took time away from SEC play to beat UAB. Like Georgia, LSU has been treading water waiting for the SEC Championship Game. Unlike the Bulldogs, the Tigers cannot afford a loss if they hope to play in the CFP. Last week: 6 | |
| 7 |  |
| Clemson handily beat Miami 40-10, but its CFP hopes took a hit when North Carolina lost. The Tigers were hoping UNC would remain a one-loss team when the ACC Championship Game rolled around. Last week: 9 | |
| 8 |  |
| It will be interesting to see where Tennessee falls after a dreadful 63-38 loss at South Carolina. Head-to-head is something, but not everything, especially when you start dealing with teams that have multiple defeats. The loss of QB Hendon Hooker is a big blow to the Vols, but that will not be a factor in this week's rankings. The committee is not projecting ahead to how good Tennessee may be without Hooker under center. Last week: 5 | |
| 9 |  |
| Alabama did to Austin Peay exactly what you would expect. The Crimson Tide are still the highest-ranked team with no chance at the CFP. Last week: 8 | |
| 10 |  |
| Welcome back to the top 10, Oregon. If I am correct about this projection, of course. The Ducks beat Utah to move one step closer to a berth in the Pac-12 title game against USC. The CFP is out of play for Oregon, but an appearance in the Rose Bowl is still possible. Last week: 12 | |
| 11 |  |
| The Nittany Lions scored twice on defense and another time on a kick return as they routed Rutgers. The hole in Penn State's resume is the lack of quality wins. Its season-opening victory at Purdue still ranks the best among them ,and you will not find the Boilermakers on this list. Last week: 11 | |
| 12 |  |
| The Huskies benefit from losses by teams ahead of them to move up the ranks. Washington still has the Apple Cup left to play and could tie for second in the league if Oregon loses. A losses by the Ducks and Utes would put the Huskies in the Pac-12 title game. Last week: 17 | |
| 13 |  |
| Utah played Oregon tough last week but came up short. The Utes can also be part of a tie for second if the Ducks lose and they beat Colorado. Last week: 10 | |
| 14 |  |
| One of the many great in-state rivalries taking place this week is K-State and Kansas. For the Wildcats, however, more than just a Governor's Cup is at stake. A win puts them in the Big 12 title game against TCU. Last week: 15 | |
| 15 |  |
| Here is something you don't see every week in these rankings. I am projecting the Bruins to move up despite the loss to the Trojans. That is largely because it is not a terribly damaging loss but also due to losses by other teams that were worse. Last week: 16 | |
| 16 |  |
| The Fighting Irish throttled Boston College in the snow. That sets up a big game at USC where the weather figures to be better. Notre Dame still has an outside shot at the New Year's Six, but it needs a win here. Last week: 18 | |
| 17 |  |
| The Rebels have now lost three of their last four following a defeat at Arkansas. With so many league mates in position to play in New Year's Six games, they should find themselves in a good bowl game, especially if they win the Egg Bowl. Last week: 14 | |
| 18 |  |
| Last week, I wrote: "Unfortunately for the Green Wave, their hopes of hosting the aAC Championship Game likely vanished in a home loss to UCF." After further review, if Tulane wins at Cincinnati, the Wave will in fact host the ACC title game. Last week: 21 | |
| 19 |  |
| The Tar Heels picked a bad time for a bad loss. A home defeat to Georgia Tech not only eliminated any slim CFP hopes, it also damaged UNC's value as a potential win for Clemson. Last week: 13 | |
| 20 |  |
| The Seminoles kept rolling with a big win over Louisiana for their fourth straight victory. This week's opponent, Florida, just lost at Vanderbilt but has won three straight in the rivalry. Last week: 19 | |
| 21 |  |
| The Beavers have now won five of their last six. A win over Oregon would give Oregon State its first nine-win season since 2012. Last week: 23 | |
| 22 |  |
| The Bearcats are two home wins away from a return to the New Year's Six and the Cotton Bowl. A victory over Tulane would bring the AAC title game against UCF to the Queen City. Last week: NR | |
| 23 |  |
| The Longhorns are waiting in the wings to get another shot at TCU in the Big 12 title game. Of course, Kansas State has to lose first, and Texas has to take care of business against Baylor. Last week: NR | |
| 24 |  |
| South Carolina turned the CFP chase on its head with a dominant performance against Tennessee. The Gamecocks get another chance to cause chaos against Clemson. Last week: NR | |
| 25 |  |
| The Bulldogs are lacking quality wins, but they also had the misfortune of having to play not just division mates Alabama and LSU but also Georgia. Last week: NR | |
