The Big 12 is moving to a 16-team lineup in 2024, which throws scheduling patterns out of whack. Historically, the league boasted a relatively balanced round-robin slate, but now strength of schedule could ultimately decide the Big 12 Championship Game matchup. Just last season, Oklahoma State, which featured the second-easiest schedule in the Big 12, used an easy schedule to win 10 games and earn a trip to Arlington.
Four new teams join the league from the Pac-12: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah. The quartet join the four newcomers from last season and eight legacy members to form one of the most competitive conferences, top to bottom, in the country. The changes mean that a number of teams will feature schedules with vastly unfamiliar opponents.
Heading into the season, there are six contenders with odds above the rest: Utah, Arizona, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. Avoiding as many of these teams as possible is a priority when building a manageable schedule. Additionally, sequencing and home-away splits factor into the rotation. While most of the league does not feature truly marquee nonconference games, stacking two or three difficult games costs you.
Here's how each Big 12 school's strength of schedule stacks up to the rest of the pack. The schedules are ranked from hardest to easiest.
| 1 |  |
| The Buffaloes face a perfect storm of difficult games mixed with tricky curveballs. Games against FCS power North Dakota State, rival Colorado State and a revamped Nebraska squad are all leasable in the nonconference. Five of the top six teams in the conference are on the back half of the schedule, including Utah, Kansas and Oklahoma State to close the year. There are no weeks off. | |
| 2 |  |
| The Sun Devils have one of the most undesirable nonconference runs in the country with Wyoming, Mississippi State and an ascending Texas State. The only home conference game where the Sun Devils are likely to be less than a 5-point underdog is BYU in the penultimate week of the season. Every game on the schedule is loseable. | |
| 3 |  |
| The Cougars enter a true rebuild with a road trip to Oklahoma in the nonconference. Not ideal. Conference play includes all of Iowa State, Utah, Kansas, Kansas State and Arizona. The only thing that brings some relief is getting Cincinnati, Baylor and BYU as winnable opportunities. | |
| 4 |  |
| The Mountaineers have been a mainstay near the top of this list, but Pittsburgh's slide gives them some relief next to Penn State in nonconference. West Virginia then gets five straight conference title contenders with Kansas, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State and Arizona. There is at least a chance to make up some ground to end the year, though. | |
| 5 |  |
| The Cougars travel to both SMU and Wyoming in the nonconference. Outside of Utah, the hardest games are home. Unfortunately, that includes matchups with Kansas State, Arizona, Oklahoma State and Kansas. Finding comfortable wins on the schedule is difficult. | |
| 6 |  |
| Nonconference road games against ACC foes Stanford and SMU present a pair of potential losses. Conference play doesn't get much better with road games against Kansas and Utah, capped off by a trip to rival Baylor. A midseason matchup with Texas Tech could be the differentiator for these teams. | |
| 7 |  |
| After pencilling in a loss to Iowa (sorry), the Cyclones largely pull a middle-class slate. Road games against Kansas State and Utah will determine ISU's conference title chances, but home games against Baylor, Cincinnati and Texas Tech set a high floor. | |
| 8 |  |
| The Bears get Utah as a nonconference game and a number of coin-flip games after. Road trips to Texas Tech and Colorado will likely define the direction of the season. Missing Utah as a conference game, plus Kansas State and Arizona, is a big win. | |
| 9 |  |
| The hardest games are at the Bounce House with Utah and Arizona, though a trip to Iowa State will be tricky. Florida in the nonconference is a potential brand-building opportunity. All eyes will be on a home game against Colorado in Week 5. | |
| 10 |  |
| Survive the month of September and the world is open. OSU gets South Dakota State and Arkansas in nonconference before opening Big 12 play with Utah and Kansas State. Win both and the Cowboys are a Big 12 title game favorite. Lose both and they might be out of the race before it starts. | |
| 11 |  |
| The nonconference schedule is manageable after last season's issues and most of the top conference contenders aren't on the slate. Road trips to Arizona, Iowa State and Oklahoma State are difficult, but the Red Raiders get rewarded with four home games in Big 12 play against teams that missed bowls last year. | |
| 12 |  |
| The schedule is more favorable than last season, including home games against Houston and Arizona State. Like many teams, a road trip to Colorado will tell us quite a bit about the Bearcats. Pitt being down helps make the case for a bowl game. | |
| 13 |  |
| An opening Big 12 slate against Oklahoma State and Arizona followed by an ending against Iowa State and UCF will determine the season. The middle has plenty of wins to rack up, including five straight games against teams that missed bowls last year. | |
| 14 |  |
| The Wildcats play a game against Kansas State that's technically a nonconference tilt. Going to Utah in the first week of Big 12 play will be a massive test. Survive it and the schedule opens up. There's no Kansas, Kansas State (as a conference game), Oklahoma State or Iowa State. Arizona closes the year with UCF, Houston, TCU and Arizona State, which could set up a conference title game run. | |
| 15 |  |
| The Wildcats get the other side of the Arizona nonconference game, but the rest of the schedule is workable. Kansas State will be favored in road games against Colorado, BYU and Houston. Home games against Oklahoma State and Kansas are the toughest on the schedule. | |
| 16 |  |
| Games against Illinois and UNLV in nonconference are no joke, but the rest of the schedule is manageable. Six conference games are against foes that missed a bowl game last season. The road slate includes games against Arizona State, BYU and Baylor, all of whom KU will be favored against. All the keys are in place for a run. | |
