|Baylor RB Jarred Salubi could have a chance to post big numbers against the struggling Texas run defense. (US Presswire)|
Baylor (3-2, 0-2 Big 12) at Texas (4-2, 1-2 Big 12)
Kickoff: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (ABC)
Spread: Texas by 11
Watchability: If you're into points, you'll love this one. Both teams are in the top 10 in scoring offense nationally and in the bottom 25 in scoring defense. It may not be the 70-63 game Baylor played earlier this season at West Virginia, but it might not be far from it, either.
Shining stars: Baylor: WR Terrance Williams. Williams always finds a way to get his numbers. He wound up with 163 receiving yards and two touchdowns, one of Baylor's few bright spots, in the team's 49-21 loss to TCU last week. He put up those numbers despite finishing with only three receptions. The nation's leader in receiving yards per game at 166, slowing down Williams will be priority No. 1 for the Texas defense. Texas: DE Alex Okafor. One of the few bright spots on defense for UT has been its defensive line, a key reason the Longhorns are sixth in the country in tackles for loss (8.17 per game) and in the top 40 in sacks. But DE Jackson Jeffcoat suffered a season-ending injury in last weekend's loss to Oklahoma, so Okafor will have to shoulder even more of the load moving forward. He averages a sack per game and has forced two fumbles.
Who could steal the show: Baylor: RB Jarred Salubi. The forgotten man on an offense that puts the ball in the air as much as any in the Big 12, Salubi could put up big numbers while facing a Texas defense that has struggled to defend the run. Texas has allowed 209.17 rushing yards per game, 103rd in the nation in that stat. Oklahoma State's Joseph Randle ran for 199 yards against the Longhorns. West Virginia's Andrew Buie rushed for 207, and Oklahoma's Damien Williams finished with 167. Texas: QB David Ash. After playing so well for the first third of the season, Ash came back to earth last week against the Sooners, completing only 13 of 29 passes for 113 yards while throwing two interceptions. His backup, Case McCoy, ultimately came in and finished 5 of 8 for 102 yards and two touchdowns. Texas had a long quarterback battle through the offseason. If Ash struggles, could he get yanked again?
You going? Ranking the road trip: The Texas fan base likely won't be as fired up for this one as it was for the Longhorns' last home game on Oct. 6, when a Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium record crowd of almost 102,000 watched WVU's 48-45 win. Still, heading to Austin might be worth it -- if for no other reason to see just how restless the locals are with coach Mack Brown's recent struggles.
Magic number for Baylor: 0. After forcing at least one turnover in each of its first 16 games under defensive coordinator Phil Bennett, the Baylor defense has not gotten a takeaway in either of its last two games. Perhaps not coincidentally, both have ended in losses for the Bears.
Magic number for Texas: 44.5. After pitching a shutout in a 45-0 win over New Mexico in their second game of the season, the Longhorns' defense has yielded 44.5 points per game. The nation's worst scoring defense this season is Marshall, allowing -- you guessed it -- 44.5 points per game.
The game comes down to: Can Baylor avoid turnovers? Texas had trouble defending the wide-open offenses of Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Oklahoma. Baylor has plenty of weapons to score with the Longhorns, but the Bears committed six turnovers in last week's loss to TCU. If QB Nick Florence has had one problem this season, it's giveaways. Such mistakes can't happen in this game if BU is to compete.
Prediction: Texas 48, Baylor 42
For more up-to-the-minute news and analysis from Big 12 bloggers C.J. Moore and Patrick Southern, follow @CBSSportsBig12 on Twitter. You can also follow C.J. (@cjmoore4) and Patrick (@patricksouthern).