jaelin-llewellyn-princeton.jpg
USATSI

The UMBC Retrievers take on the Vermont Catamounts in the final of the 2022 America East Tournament on Saturday. UMBC is on a five-game winning streak with an 18-13 overall mark and a 13-7 record in conference play. The Retrievers lost to Vermont by 27 points in the first matchup between the two teams, and Vermont has only a single loss since Dec. 7. The Catamounts are the top seed in the tournament with a 19-1 conference mark and an overall record of 27-5.

Caesars Sportsbook lists the Catamounts as 15.5-point favorites for this 11 a.m. ET tipoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 142 in the latest UMBC vs. Vermont odds. Before locking in any Vermont vs. UMBC picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $1,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Vermont vs. UMBC and revealed its coveted picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see all of the model's college basketball picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for UMBC vs. Vermont:

  • UMBC vs. Vermont spread: Vermont -15.5
  • UMBC vs. Vermont over-under: 142 points
  • UMBC vs. Vermont money line: Vermont -1700, UMBC +900
  • UMBC: The Retrievers are 11-9 against the spread in America East games
  • VER: The Catamounts are 13-7 against the spread in America East games

Why UMBC can cover

UMBC is elite in preventing free throws on defense, ranking No. 4 in the country in free-throw rate allowed. That gives the Retrievers an edge on the margins, and UMBC's offense is prolific. UMBC is No. 2 in the America East in offensive efficiency, and the Retrievers are in the top 15 of the country in both 3-point accuracy (38.6 percent) and free-throw accuracy (78.4 percent). 

The Retrievers are No. 2 in the America East in free-throw creation, and UMBC takes care of possessions by committing a turnover on only 16.3 percent of trips. Vermont is below-average by America East standards in forcing turnovers on defense, and the Catamounts have a paltry 6.6 percent block rate this season. Vermont is also allowing more than 37 percent shooting on 3-point attempts to opponents, and UMBC is set up to take advantage of that weakness on the perimeter.

Why Vermont can cover

Vermont has one of the best offenses in the country, leading the America East in overall efficiency, 2-point shooting and 3-point shooting. The Catamounts are in the top five nationally in effective field-goal percentage, and Vermont is difficult for any opponent to slow, much less stop. However, Vermont's defense is also effective and underrated. The Catamounts lead the America East in adjusted defensive efficiency, and Vermont leads the entire country in defensive rebound rate at 81.3 percent. 

Vermont is also in the top 20 nationally in free-throw rate allowed, and the Catamounts boast the conference's top mark in shooting efficiency allowed. That includes a 44.4 percent mark in 2-point shooting allowed, and UMBC is last in the America East in creating second-chance opportunities on the offensive glass.

How to make UMBC vs. Vermont picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 149 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Vermont vs. UMBC? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.