The reigning champion UConn Huskies will look to stay hot when they square off against the San Diego State Aztecs in a rematch of last season's title game on Thursday at TD Garden in Boston. The top-seeded Huskies (33-3) enter the Sweet 16 of the 2024 NCAA Tournament having won nine straight games and 23 of their last 24. UConn's average margin of victory in the 2024 NCAA Tournament has been 28.0 points per game. Meanwhile, the No. 5 seed Aztecs (26-10) will be looking for revenge after losing to UConn in last season's national title game. Thursday's winner will face either Iowa State or Illinois on Saturday for a spot in the Final Four. 

Tipoff is scheduled for 7:39 p.m. ET. The Huskies are favored by 11.5 points in the latest UConn vs. San Diego State odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 136.5. Before making any San Diego State vs. UConn picks, you need to check out the college basketball analysis from the SportsLine Projection Model

The model simulates every Div. I college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the Sweet 16 round of the 2024 NCAA tournament on a 152-109 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning more than $1,800 for $100 players. It also has a strong 32-21 (+890) record on top-rated spread picks this season, and it called 13 Sweet 16 teams this year. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on UConn vs. San Diego State and just locked in its March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and betting lines and trends for San Diego State vs. UConn:

  • UConn vs. San Diego State spread: Huskies -11.5
  • UConn vs. San Diego State over/under: 136.5 points
  • UConn vs. San Diego State money line: Huskies -762, Aztecs +525
  • UCONN: The Huskies rank second in the country in scoring margin (+17.7 points per game).
  • SDSU: The Aztecs are 15th in the country in field goal percentage defense (40.3).
  • UConn vs. San Diego State picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why UConn can cover

The Huskies have arguably the best backcourt in the country in Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer. Newton, a first-team All-American, leads the team in scoring (15.3) and assists (6.2) per game. Meanwhile, Spencer leads the team in steals (1.42 per game) and is second on the team in scoring (14.4). Spencer is also shooting 44.0% on 3-pointers, which ranks fifth in the country.

In addition, UConn has been playing excellent defense all season. The Huskies give up just 63.9 points per game, which leads the Big East and ranks 12th in the nation. According to Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defensive efficiency metric, the Huskies give up 93.5 points per 100 possessions, which ranks eighth in Div. I. See which team to back at SportsLine

Why San Diego State can cover

The Aztecs have one of the nation's best scorers in senior Jaedon LeDee. The 6-foot-9 forward ranks 10th in the nation in scoring (21.5 points per game) while shooting 56.4% from the field. Through two NCAA Tournament games, he is averaging 29.0 points and 8.5 rebounds. He's shooting 66.7% from the field (20-of-30), 100.0% on 3-pointers (3-of-3) and 83.3% from the foul line (15-of-18). For his efforts this season, he was twice named a second-team All-American selection.

In addition, San Diego State has a defense that can swarm UConn's offense. The Aztecs give up 66.3 points per game (27th in the country) and allow opponents to shoot just 30.8% on 3-pointers (28th). According to KenPom, they rank 26th in effective field goal percentage defense (47.1). See which team to back at SportsLine

How to make UConn vs. San Diego State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 143 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can see the picks only at SportsLine

So who wins San Diego State vs. UConn, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the UConn vs. San Diego State spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 152-109 roll on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.