Are you getting tired of watching basketball yet? Of course you aren't! Only a weirdo would get tired of watching these teenagers miss jump shots for 12 hours per day!
So, with that in mind, I've got a couple more college basketball plays for you tonight. I've also got two soccer plays to help you get through the weekend as you wait for Selection Sunday to arrive.
Oh, and we've got plenty of NFL news happening too. Remember last year when Tom Brady announced he was retiring on Selection Sunday? It was pretty rude, so I expect Aaron Rodgers will do the same thing this year. Anyway, as I mentioned, we have NFL news to catch up on and other stories you should read.
- Is Matt Stafford on the block?
- The Vikings have cut Adam Thielen.
- A very handsome and intelligent person released their latest mock draft.
- Jon Rahm has withdrawn from The Players Championship.
Let's dance.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
No. 8 Arizona vs. Arizona State, 11:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN
- Key Trend: The under is 4-1 in Arizona's last five games against teams with a winning record.
- The Pick: Under 154 (-110)
Yes, I'm asking you to stay up late tonight, but it's Friday. You have no reason not to stay up until the wee hours of the morning. If you're not staying up until 2 a.m. to watch college basketball and sweat an under, you aren't reaching your potential. This is a rivalry game in the Pac-12 Tournament, and a trip to the championship game is on the line. I expect Arizona will be the team moving on and based on the 7.5-point spread in this game, I'm not alone in this theory.
But I'm not nearly as interested in the spread as I am the total here. The two regular-season meetings were split. Arizona State pulled off the upset in Tucson, beating the Wildcats 89-88 with a halfcourt three-pointer at the buzzer. It was a wild game that saw an Arizona State team that ranks last in the Pac-12 in three-point shooting hit 39.3% of its threes. The Sun Devils shot 53.7% from the floor overall in the game. It was the definition of overperforming expectations.
And it was a feat I don't believe the Sun Devils can repeat, not when playing a third game in three nights. The way I see this going, Arizona either covers and blows the Sun Devils out, or the Sun Devils muck it up to keep things close. Either way, I don't see it getting past 154 points.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Projection Model and I are on the same side for the second straight day. The world is on notice.
💰 The Picks
🏀 College Basketball
No. 19 Indiana vs. Maryland, 9 p.m | TV: Big Ten Network
The Pick: Maryland +1.5 (-110) -- The wrong team is favored tonight! I'm sure Indiana fans won't use that against me if the Hoosiers win, but even if that's the case, it doesn't make it a lie. Power rating systems like KenPom and others do not care about seeding; they all have Maryland ahead of Indiana. While I don't think Chicago is as neutral a site as it could be for Maryland in this situation, I tend to agree with the power ratings.
Maryland finished the regular season with losses to Ohio State and Penn State, but it's been excellent. The Hoosiers are pretty good themselves, but I have a hard time trusting teams with young guards in March. My other concern is that Indiana fouls a lot, Maryland is excellent at getting to the free-throw line and it makes its free throws when it gets there. How many games have we seen decided at the free throw line this time of year?
⚽ Soccer
Napoli vs. Atalanta, Saturday, 12 p.m. | TV: Paramount+
The Pick: Under 2.5 (+105) -- Napoli did something last weekend it hasn't done often this season: it lost a Serie A match. Napoli's 1-0 loss to Lazio was only its second loss in league play, so it didn't mean much in the standings. Napoli still holds a 15-point lead on Inter in the standings, and it's only a matter of time until it wins the Scudetto. However, it was a misleading loss. While Lazio did a terrific job of stopping Napoli's attack, holding it to 0.8 expected goals (xG), Napoli's defending was still tremendous as well. Lazio finished with 0.2 xG, and its lone goal came on a laser from outside the box. It was its only real chance of the match, and it wasn't a great chance.
That defending will still be a key part of the Napoli does this week, and it's facing an Atalanta team slipping further away from the top four every week. Atalanta has won only one of its last six and has struggled to score in that time. It's been solid defensively, though, and will likely try to mirror what Lazio did last week to frustrate Napoli. I like Napoli to win, but not as much as I like this to be a low-scoring affair.
Freiburg vs. Hoffenheim, Sunday, 10:30 a.m. | TV: ESPN+
The Pick: Over 2.5 (-130) -- I don't include them here nearly as often as I should, but one of the best ways to make money betting soccer is to find at least one Bundesliga match every week where the total is 2.5 and take the over. There have been 3.16 goals scored per match in the league, and no team in the league averages fewer than 2.5 goals per match (Schalke is the lowest at 2.61). That can sometimes make it more difficult to bet on winners and losers, but the totals are a goldmine.
Of our Bundesliga options this weekend, this is the most enticing. Freiburg is having another excellent season, and while it's not one of the league's highest-scoring teams, it makes up for it by allowing more goals than the other top teams do! That said, it's been much better defensively at home, but it's been better in attack too. It averages 1.92 xG per match at home compared to 1.06 on the road, and it's facing a Hoffenheim team that's fighting for survival and has been terrible defensively on the road (1.74 xG allowed). There's a decent chance Freiburg scores three itself, but Hoffenheim ranks eighth in the league in xG this season itself, so we shouldn't overlook its ability to find the back of the net, either.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The Projection Model's favorite college basketball play of the night is in the ACC between Virginia and Clemson.
