The No. 6 seed Old Dominion Monarchs will face the No. 11 seed Texas State-San Marcos Bobcats in the second round of the 2023 Sun Belt Tournament on Thursday night. Texas State advanced to the second round with a win over Georgia State, while Old Dominion earned a first-round bye. The winner of this game will face No. 3 seed Marshall in the quarterfinals on Saturday. 

Tipoff is set for 6 p.m. ET. The Monarchs are favored by 3.5 points in the latest Old Dominion vs. Texas State odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under is set at 131. Before entering any Texas State vs. Old Dominion picks, you'll want to see the college basketball predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters Week 17 of the season 76-46 on all top-rated college basketball picks this season, returning more than $1,600 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Old Dominion vs. Texas State. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds for Texas State vs. Old Dominion:

  • Old Dominion vs. Texas State spread: Old Dominion -3.5
  • Old Dominion vs. Texas State over/under: 131 points
  • Old Dominion vs. Texas State money line: Old Dominion -180, Texas State 152
  • Old Dominion vs. Texas State picks: See picks here
Featured Game | Old Dominion Monarchs vs. Texas State-San Marcos Bobcats

Why Old Dominion can cover

Old Dominion enters the Sun Belt Tournament with momentum after beating Appalachian State, Southern Miss and Marshall in consecutive games. The Monarchs were underdogs in all three of those games, and they have now covered the spread in six of their last seven outings. They beat Texas State as 1.5-point road underdogs in the lone regular-season meeting between these teams, as Imo Essien scored the winning layup as time expired. 

Sophomore guard Chaunce Jenkins leads a balanced lineup with 13.8 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game, while senior guard Tyreek Scott-Grayson is scoring 13.6 points. Junior guard Mekhi Long is averaging 10.9 points and a team-high 8.7 rebounds per game. Texas State has been struggling to meet expectations, covering the spread three times in its last 14 games. 

Why Texas State can cover

Texas State has some momentum coming into the second round as well after it took down Georgia State in the first round. The Bobcats took a 10-point lead into halftime and were able to hold on down the stretch, with Drue Drinnon scoring a team-high 16 points on 5 of 6 shooting from the floor. Old Dominion has not played in nearly a week, so the Monarchs could have to knock off some rust early in this game. 

The first meeting between these teams came down to the final possession, hinting at some value on the underdog in the rematch. Senior guard Mason Harrell leads Texas State with 15.9 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game. Senior forward Nighael Ceaser (9.5 points) and senior forward Tyrel Morgan (9.1) have both been key contributors as well. 

How to make Texas State vs. Old Dominion picks

The model has simulated Old Dominion vs. Texas State 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 70% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Texas State vs. Old Dominion? And which side of the spread is hitting well over 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is 76-46 on its top-rated college basketball picks this season, and find out.