United Center hosts four quarterfinal matchups of the 2023 Big Ten Tournament on Friday. The second game of the day features the No. 4 seed Michigan State Spartans and the No. 13 seed Ohio State Buckeyes. Michigan State earned a bye to the quarterfinal with a 19-11 overall record and an 11-8 mark in conference play. Ohio State beat Wisconsin on Wednesday and Iowa on Thursday to advance and improve to 15-18 this season.
Caesars Sportsbook lists the Spartans as 4.5-point favorites for this 2:30 p.m. ET tip. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 137 in the latest Ohio State vs. Michigan State odds. Before locking in any Michigan State vs. Ohio State picks, you need to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters conference tournament week 76-51 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning nearly $1,200 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now the model has zeroed in on Ohio State vs. Michigan State and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several college basketball odds and betting lines for Michigan State vs. Ohio State:
- Ohio State vs. Michigan State spread: MSU -4.5
- Ohio State vs. Michigan State over/under: 137 points
- Ohio State vs. Michigan State money line: MSU -210, OSU +175
- OSU: The Buckeyes are 7-15 against the spread in Big Ten games
- MSU: The Spartans are 10-9 against the spread in Big Ten games
- Ohio State vs. Michigan State picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why Ohio State can cover
Ohio State picked up impressive wins over Wisconsin and Iowa on back-to-back days, with the Buckeyes potentially peaking at the right time. The Buckeyes also have a breakout player in freshman Brice Sensabaugh, who projects as a first round pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. He leads the team with 16.3 points per game this season, and Sensabaugh is shooting 40.5% from 3-point range. Ohio State is in the top 25 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, and the Buckeyes have top-five marks in the Big Ten in both offensive rebound rate (29%) and free throw accuracy (75%).
Michigan State has the second-worst free throw rate allowed mark in the conference, with bottom-tier marks in steal rate and block rate on defense. On defense, Ohio State blocks 10% of shots attempts, and Michigan State is outside the top 300 nationally in free throw rate over the course of the regular season.
Why Michigan State can cover
The Spartans have the rest advantage after a bye to the quarterfinal, and Michigan State's offense is potent. Three players score in double figures on a nightly basis for Tom Izzo's team, led by Tyson Walker and Joey Hauser. Walker is scoring 14.8 points per game this season, including 15.4 points per game in Big Ten play, and he is making 48.7% of 3-point attempts against conference foes. Hauser is averaging 14.2 points per game and leading the team with 7.0 rebounds and 45.9% 3-point shooting.
As a team, Michigan State is in the top five of the nation in 3-point accuracy, making 40.1% of attempts, and that jumps to 41.5% in Big Ten play. The Spartans also lead the Big Ten with 78.5% shooting at the free throw line, and Michigan State is in the top five of the conference in field goal percentage (45.5%) and assists (14.1 per game). Michigan State also commits a turnover on only 16.5% of offensive possessions, a mark strongly better than the national average.
How to make Michigan State vs. Ohio State picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 143 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 70% of the time. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Ohio State vs. Michigan State? And which side of the spread hits almost 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.
