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Kyle Neptune is only three games into his tenure at Villanova (2-1) and in just his second season as a NCAA Division I head coach. On Friday, Neptune leads the Wildcats against Michigan State (2-1) and Tom Izzo, who is in his 28th season with the Spartans and in search of his ninth Final Four appearance. The matchup between the top programs will be a test for Neptune, who has been without the services of guard Justin Moore (achilles) since the beginning of the season.

Tip-off from the Jack Breslin Student Events Center is set for 8 p.m. ET. The Spartans are favored by 6.5 points in the latest Michigan State vs. Villanova odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over/under is set at 130.5. Before entering any Villanova vs. Michigan State picks, you'll want to see the college basketball predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated more than $1,200 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Michigan State vs. Villanova. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds for Michigan State vs. Villanova:

  • Michigan State vs. Villanova spread: Michigan State -6.5
  • Michigan State vs. Villanova over/under: 130.5 points
  • Michigan State vs. Villanova money line: Michigan State -280, Villanova +230
  • Michigan State vs. Villanova picks: See picks here

What you need to know about Michigan State

Michigan State handed No. 4 Kentucky its first loss of the season on Tuesday, in a thrilling 86-77 result. Four Spartans scored in the double digits: forwards Joey Hauser (23 points) and Malik Hall (20), center Mady Sissoko (16), and guard Tyson Walker (14). Hauser and Walker combined to go 6-for-12 from downtown and the former made half of all his total field goal attempts in the game.

Michigan State's success this season has been predicated on its defense, and the Spartans have held opponents to hit just 37.3% of their shots. Meanwhile, they have only been whistled for 19 fouls and average 21 free throws per contest. MSU hits 15.7 free-throw attempts per game (81st nationally), and though the Spartans shoot 74.6% from the charity stripe, that mark still ranks 74th in the country. 

What you need to know about Villanova

Villanova was able to grind out a solid win over the Delaware State Hornets on Monday, 60-50. Forward Eric Dixon and forward Brandon Slater were among the main playmakers for Villanova as the former had 17 points along with seven rebounds and the latter had 15 points in addition to five boards. The Wildcats made just five of their 27 threes, but made up for it by hitting 63.2% of their shots inside the 3-point line.

Michigan State might be getting by with making 3/4 of its free throws, but Villanova has been clinical in its attempts. The Wildcats hit 86.5% of their free throws, and despite their abysmal 3-point shooting against Delaware State, they have hit 37% of their shots from distance for the season. Caleb Daniels has been Nova's most dangerous shooter from beyond the arc, and has hit 58.3% of his looks so far in 2022.

How to make Villanova vs. Michigan State picks

The model has simulated Michigan State vs. Villanova 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 70% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

Who wins Michigan State vs. Villanova? And which side of the spread hits well over 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.