For many teams on the bubble to earn an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament it is getting to be crunch-time. For most of the major conference teams, there are still three or four games left, but some conferences, like the West Coast Conference, end their regular seasons this weekend.
Before we get to the bubble teams in action Saturday, here are the noteworthy recent results from bubble teams
- Oregon notched the biggest win of the day on Thursday. The Ducks knocked off UCLA at home 68-63 to complete the season sweep of the Bruins. Oregon is still a team with a high number of bad losses and I am not ready to put the Ducks in the bracket yet.
- Indiana also won, beating Maryland at home 74-64. The Hoosiers are shorthanded at the moment with three guards out due to injury, but they still need to win regardless. Next up is a trip to Minnesota.
- Finally, Murray State clinched the Ohio Valley Conference regular season title outright with another demolition of Belmont. The Racers won the first meeting by 22 at Belmont, then smoked the Bruins last night 76-43. If the Racers can avoid a bad loss in their conference tournament, their chance of an at-large bid is pretty good.
Here are the updated "Last four in" and "First four out" of the 68-team field followed by the bubble teams in action Friday and Saturday. All times Eastern
| LAST FOUR IN | RECORD | NET |
|---|---|---|
| Memphis | 16-9 | 46 |
| Michigan | 15-11 | 33 |
| Florida | 17-11 | 56 |
| Wake Forest | 21-8 | 42 |
| FIRST FOUR OUT | RECORD | NET |
| Rutgers | 16-11 | 83 |
| North Carolina | 20-8 | 41 |
| Oregon | 18-10 | 67 |
| Indiana | 17-10 | 43 |
Check out all the teams on Palm's Bubble Watch, the field of the 68 and the entire bracket on the Bracketology hub
Bubble teams in action Saturday
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| at Georgia, Noon | ESPN2, fuboTV (Try for free) -- Florida needs to avoid doing further damage to its tournament profile in advance of getting a shot at Kentucky at the end of the regular season. Georgia has been feisty at times on its home floor though, so the Gators better show up ready to go. | |
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| at NC State, 2 p.m. | ESPN, fuboTV (Try for free) -- UNC needs to prove to the NCAA Tournament selection committee that it can beat tournament-quality opposition. The Tar Heels will not get a chance to do that again until they face Duke in Coach K's final home game. Good luck with that. Meanwhile, they have to win the games leading up to that. | |
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| vs. Fordham, 2:30 p.m. | USA, fuboTV (Try for free) -- Needless to say, but I'll say it anyway, a loss to Fordham at home would be a disaster for the Wildcats' tournament hopes. One they may not recover from. | |
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| vs. Virginia Tech, 3 p.m. -- Miami is on the bubble in large part due to a high number of questionable-to-bad losses, including a sweep by Virginia. The Canes have a win at Duke and have done well against fellow ACC bubblers, including a sweep of Wake Forest and a home win over North Carolina. They beat the Hokies on the road earlier, so Miami is looking for a sweep of this series as well. | |
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| at UMass, 4:30 p.m. | USA, fuboTV (Try for free) -- This is the Rams' last breather before getting a couple of games that can help boost their tournament profile. That is if you consider road games in conference to be "breathers". VCU cannot get caught looking ahead to St. Bonaventure and Saint Louis. | |
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| at San Diego, 5 p.m. -- The Dons are living off of a win over Davidson and a split with BYU. They are only 3-5 vs Quad 1 teams, but four of those losses came to Gonzaga and St. Mary's. USF also already has a Quad 4 loss and cannot take any more. A loss to San Diego would be one too many. | |
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| at Northern Iowa, 6 p.m. | ESPNU, fuboTV (Try for free) -- There is a lot at stake in this game. The winner is the Missouri Valley Champion and will be the top seed at Arch Madness. There is more on the line for Loyola though. There is no longer a realistic path to an at-large bid with a loss to the Panthers. | |
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| vs. Texas Tech, 6 p.m. | ESPN2, fuboTV (Try for free) -- We welcome TCU to the bubble after losing five of their last seven games. The Horned Frogs are in the Big 12, so none of those losses individually is especially damaging, but collectively, it is becoming a problem. Not only that, but their remaining schedule includes a home-and-home with Kansas and a road game at West Virginia. It may only take one win to get back off the bubble, but that will be a significant challenge. | |
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| at Saint Joseph's, 6 p.m. | CBS Sports Network -- The Bonnies are biding their time, trying to avoid further damage to their tournament chances until they get to some games that can help. They are at VCU next, so that's a start. It will not matter if they cannot beat SJU. In fact, I recommend putting up a big margin to try to help that sagging NET ranking. | |
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| vs. Wisconsin, 6 p.m. | Big Ten Network, fuboTV (Try for free) -- Speaking of sagging NET rankings, Rutgers has come back to earth a bit after that four-game winning streak over top 25 teams. The Scarlet Knights are largely home-court heroes, but one of their three wins away from the RAC came at Wisconsin. They have games at Indiana and home to Penn State after that. It is unlikely that Rutgers can make the NCAA Tournament if it does not win at least two of these last three. | |
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| vs. Louisville, 7 p.m. | ACC Network, fuboTV (Try for free) -- Wake Forest has a very soft tournament resume largely due to a soft non-conference schedule. The Demon Deacons' win against Notre Dame at home is their only one against a team currently in the bracket. Unfortunately, they have no games left in the regular season that can help them. Wake just needs to win them and see what happens in the ACC Tournament. | |
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| vs. Pepperdine, 8 p.m. | ESPNU, fuboTV (Try for free) -- The Cougars' last game of the regular season gives them an opportunity to play themselves out of the NCAA Tournament. A loss to the Waves would be their worst of the season and they already have a Quad 4 loss at Pacific. | |
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| at Providence, 8:30 p.m. | FS1, fuboTV (Try for free) -- The Bluejays will be playing their first full game without star freshman Ryan Nembhard, who was lost for the season with a wrist injury in their win at St. John's. That is a tough blow for Creighton, which will still have to find a way to win without him against a challenging finishing schedule. The Friars will be fired up as they seek their first Big East regular season title. | |
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| vs. USC, 10 p.m. | ESPN2, fuboTV (Try for free) -- Oregon got the first leg of the potential LA sweep on Thursday when the Ducks knocked off UCLA at home. Now they look to finish the sweep of the Trojans. Oregon needs this win to help mitigate the high number of bad losses on their tournament resume, but they also need to win next week on the state of Washington road trip. | |
Note – all references to NCAA Tournament selection records and trends refer only to pre-pandemic tournaments. Due to shortened schedules and a relatively small number of non-conference games in 2021, those rankings were not reliable enough to be considered.
