The 16th-seeded Norfolk State Spartans want to make more history on Thursday when they take on the fourth-ranked and top-seeded Baylor Bears in the 2022 NCAA Tournament. The First Round matchup in the East Region is another chance for the Spartans (24-6) to spring a major upset. In their first NCAA Tournament appearance in 2012, they shocked No. 2 seed Missouri 86-84 as the 15 seed. The MEAC champs are in their second straight NCAA Tournament, and they beat Appalachian State by a point in last year's First Four before a 43-point loss to No. 1 seed Gonzaga. Now they face another top seed in defending NCAA champion Baylor (26-6), which will come in angry after a 72-67 upset loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 quarterfinals.     

Tipoff is set for 2 p.m. ET at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas. The Bears are 20.5-point favorites in the latest Norfolk State vs. Baylor odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the Over-Under is set at 136.5. Before making any Baylor vs. Norfolk State picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $1,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has broken down the Norfolk State vs. Baylor matchup and just locked in its picks and March Madness predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the NCAA Tournament odds and betting lines for Baylor vs. Norfolk State:

  • Norfolk State vs. Baylor spread: Bears -20.5 
  • Norfolk State vs. Baylor over-under: 136.5 points 
  • Norfolk State vs. Baylor money line: Spartans +2000, Bears -10000 
  • NS: It is 5-1 ATS at neutral sites this season 
  • BAY: It is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine neutral-site games

Why the Bears can cover

Baylor is 14-1 SU and 7-6-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season, and it is one of the nation's most balanced teams. It is in the top 30 in scoring on offense and defense, scoring 76.5 points (30th in Division I) while allowing 63.6 per game (27th). The Bears are strong on the perimeter, with opponents hitting just 29.9 percent from 3-point range, and force a ton of turnovers. Opponents turn it over almost 16 times per game (21st in the nation) and the Bears get 8.8 steals (13th). James Akinjo averages 2.1 steals and is a key piece across the board.  

The All-Big 12 guard has been carrying things along with Adam Flagler with LJ Cryer out, and Cryer (foot) will be out for at least a couple games in the NCAA Tournament. Cryer is the team's top scorer at 13.5 per game and hits almost 47 percent from 3-point range, but he has played once since Jan. 25. Akinjo and Flagler both average 13.4 points, and Flagler hits 39.3 percent from outside. 

Why the Spartans can cover

Norfolk State is 17-9-1 ATS this season, and while it has played a much easier schedule, it allowed just 66 points per game this season while scoring just under 73. It ranked sixth in the nation in opponent field-goal percentage (38.6) while shooting 45.3 percent (85th) from the floor. Forward Kris Bankston was named to the All-MEAC Defensive Team, and he is joined in a formidable frontcourt by Dana Tate. Bankston averages 11.3 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1.2 blocked shots, while Tate scores 9.9 points and grabs 6.9 boards per game. The Spartans have a plus-3.9 rebounding margin.        

They also hold opposing 3-point shooters to a 29.3 percent conversion rate, 12th-best in the nation. NSU has allowed an average of 29.3 points in first halves this season, 29th-best in Division I. It also boasts the MEAC Player of the Year in Joe Bryant, who averages a team-high 16.8 points per game, grabs 5.1 rebounds and leads the team in assists (3.3) and steals. Fellow senior Jalen Hawkins averages 13.4 points and chips in 1.3 steals. 

How to make Norfolk State vs. Baylor picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the point total, with the model suggesting nine players will score at least eight points. It also says one side of the spread hits in more than 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's Baylor vs. Norfolk State pick at SportsLine

So who wins Baylor vs. Norfolk State in Thursday's NCAA Tournament matchup? And which side of the spread hits over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of Norfolk State vs. Baylor you should be backing Thursday, all from the advanced model up almost $1,500 on its top-rated college basketball picks over the past five seasons, and find out.