The fifth-seeded San Diego State Aztecs meet the top-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide in a 2023 NCAA Tournament South Region Sweet 16 matchup on Friday in Louisville, Ky. The Aztecs (29-6, 15-3 Mountain West), who have won two of their last three conference championships, are taking part in their third Sweet 16 since 2011. The Crimson Tide (31-5, 16-2 SEC), who have won 13 of the past 15 games, have reached the Sweet 16 for the second time in three seasons. This will be the first time the teams have ever met.

Tipoff from KFC Yum! Center is set for 6:30 p.m. ET. SDSU is allowing 63.1 points per game, while Alabama is giving up 68.2. The Crimson Tide are 7-point favorites in the latest San Diego State vs. Alabama odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 137.5. Before locking in any Alabama vs. San Diego State picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters the Sweet 16 round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament 83-54 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning more than $1,500 for $100 players. It also went 4-1 on top-rated picks during the first week of March Madness. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Alabama vs. SDSU and revealed its coveted picks and predictions for the NCAA Tournament 2023. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for SDSU vs. Alabama:

  • Alabama vs. San Diego State spread: Alabama -7
  • Alabama vs. San Diego State over/under: 137.5 points
  • Alabama vs. San Diego State money line: San Diego State +260, Alabama -335
  • SDSU: The Aztecs are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games overall
  • ALA: The Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning % above .600
  • Alabama vs. San Diego State picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Alabama can cover

Freshman forward Brandon Miller has reached double-digit scoring in 26 of the past 27 games to help lead the Crimson Tide. In Saturday's second-round win over Maryland, he scored 19 points. He had a 23-point and 12-rebound performance in the SEC Tournament title game win over Texas A&M. It was his second double-double in a row and third in four games. In 36 starts, Miller has recorded nine double-doubles, while averaging 19.1 points, 8.2 rebounds and two assists.

Also helping power Alabama is junior guard Mark Sears. The transfer from Ohio averages 12.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.2 steals per game. He scored 15 points in the first-round win over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, adding three assists and one rebound. He scored a season-high 26 points in an 84-69 win at Arkansas on Jan. 11.

Why San Diego State can cover 

Junior guard Lamont Butler is coming off a solid effort in the second-round win over Furman. Butler scored 12 points, grabbed six rebounds, dished out six assists and had two steals in the 75-52 win. He has reached double-figure scoring in 12 games this season, including a season-high 23 points in an 80-75 win at Wyoming on Jan. 7. In 35 games, including 34 starts, Butler is averaging 8.6 points, 3.3 assists, 2.7 rebounds and 1.5 steals in 25.8 minutes of action.

Junior guard Micah Parrish was dominant in Saturday's win over Furman. He scored 16 points, grabbed six rebounds and had one block. He has reached double-digit scoring in nine games, including a season-high 19 points in an 88-54 win over Kennesaw State on Dec. 12. In 35 games, including one start, the Oakland transfer is averaging 7.9 points and 3.5 rebounds per game.

How to make San Diego State vs. Alabama picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 140 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Alabama vs. San Diego State? And which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.