NFL quarterback rankings based on the latest MVP odds

Can the reigning MVP win the award for a third time?

In the last iteration of this exercise (two weeks ago), Josh Allen had the shortest MVP odds, not because Lamar Jackson wasn’t incredible, but because voter fatigue and a tougher division made it seem likely that by the end of the season voters would have moved off of Jackson. Since then, Jackson has gone 41-of-52 (79%) with seven touchdowns and no interceptions with two more wins, reminding everyone that he’s the best regular season football player on the planet. His numbers on the season are now dwarfing last year’s MVP numbers and approaching his historic 2019 season.

There are 22 NFL quarterbacks with MVP odds right now on FanDuel. (Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott and Anthony Richardson have fallen off, thanks to two injuries and a benching.) Here are all 22, ranked from shortest to longest odds, with some thoughts as to how they’ve performed so far and what to expect going forward. 

1. Lamar Jackson (+110, was +370 two week ago)

If he keeps this up, it’s going to be impossible to withhold a third MVP from Jackson. He leads the league in passer rating, yards per attempt, passing touchdowns, passer rating, adjusted net yards per attempt and QB rushing yards. He’s second in passing yards. No quarterback who has played 10 games this year has been sacked fewer times. There’s nothing he can’t do.

2. Josh Allen (+360, was +270)

Allen has been fine, but he’s no Jackson. He’s not even in the top three in any major stat (except sack avoidance). The reason he’s ranked this high is because the Bills have an absurd five-game lead in their division (the Chiefs have the next biggest lead at three games), and so Allen is as good a bet as any quarterback other than Patrick Mahomes to win his division and a dozen plus games.

3. Patrick Mahomes (+650, was +500)

The Chiefs continue to chug along undefeated, the most recent success a result of a blocked field goal as time expired. Mahomes is fine, but he has hardly even been a top-10 quarterback so far this season, let alone an MVP candidate. But as the weather cools Mahomes gets better, and if the Chiefs do flirt with perfection, there’s going to be a lot of voters who automatically award the quarterback of an undefeated team.

T4. Jalen Hurts (+1400, was +2000)

After a horrid start to the season, Hurts ran for three touchdowns in Week 8, the first inkling of the Jalen Hurts that flirted with the MVP in 2022. He’s kept that up, as he now has 10 rushing touchdowns (second to only Derrick Henry), but in addition to being third in QB rushing yards, he’s also third in completion percentage. As long as A.J. Brown stays healthy, his passing numbers will continue to sparkle. And with a win Thursday night against Washington, the Eagles will wrest control of the NFC East, which will help boost Hurts’ MVP odds even further.

T4. Jayden Daniels (+1400, was +900)

He’s still been extremely careful with the football, leading the league with just two interceptions and zero lost fumbles. In addition to being fourth in completion percentage, Daniels is second in QB rushing yards and tied for third among quarterbacks with four rushing touchdowns. He’s still an overwhelming favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (-1200 on FanDuel), but unless he pulls off a big upset in Philadelphia on Thursday, his MVP odds are likely to continue to fade.

6. Brock Purdy (+1700, was +2200)

If Purdy couldn’t win MVP last year, when he had the best numbers in the league and the 49ers went 12-5, he’s not going to win it this year, when his numbers are worse and the Niners are in a divisional dogfight. But they have won two straight, Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel are finally healthy, and Purdy’s numbers are still pretty good. He’s second in the league in both yards per attempt and passing yards per game.

7. Kyler Murray (+2200, was +3300)

In this exercise’s previous edition, it was stated that Murray was “Jayden Daniels before Jayden Daniels,” all the way down to the incredible Hail Mary (“Hail Murray,” in Kyler’s case). That’s even more true now, as their odds climb closer to each other. In the last three weeks Murray has gone 61-of-80 (76%) for 727 yards (9.1 yards per attempt) and three touchdowns with no interceptions, while also rushing for two touchdowns. Unlike Daniels’ Commanders, Murray’s Cardinals are in first place in their division.

8. Joe Burrow (+3000, was +2200)

While the MVP award traditionally goes to the best quarterback on a team that wins at least a dozen games, a quarterback that puts up monster stats for a team with a lesser record can still win OPOY. Burrow’s 2024 season is comparable to Drew Brees’ OPOY-winning 2008 season, when his Saints only went 8-8, but he led the league in passing yards and touchdowns, in addition to completions and attempts. Guess who leads the league in all four categories this year?

Last week the Bengals lost a second heartbreaker to the Ravens. In those two games Burrow has gone 64-of-95 for 820 yards and nine touchdowns, leading his team to 72 points. Unfortunately for him, the Ravens have scored 76. With his Bengals now 4-6, it makes sense that Burrow’s MVP odds have gotten worse. But his OPOY odds have also skyrocketed (now +3000 on FanDuel, the same as his MVP odds). Burrow has no real chance at the MVP, but the OPOY is still in play, especially if Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley either tail off or suffer an injury.

9. Jared Goff (+3500, was +600)

No one has had to do less with more than Jared Goff, who benefits from the best offensive line and offensive play caller in the league. He still has fewer combined attempts (passing attempts, sacks and rushing attempts) than Deshaun Watson, who suffered a season-ending injury weeks ago. Yes, his Lions are the best team in the league, and he leads the league in completion percentage. But fortunately his five-interception barrage on Sunday night has put the MVP conversation to rest. 

T10. Kirk Cousins (+4500, was +3300)

He’s still third in passing yards, and thanks to injuries to the Saints and Buccaneers, his Falcons should have a fairly easy path to a division title, but Cousins is going to fall far short of MVP consideration.

T10. Justin Herbert (+4500, was +8000)

Herbert has thrown just one interception all season, leading the league with a microscopic 0.4% interception percentage. But Jim Harbaugh’s conservative offense is going to keep Herbert’s numbers far short of his career averages, let alone those necessary for MVP consideration. That’s in addition to the fact that the Chargers aren’t going to catch Kansas City atop the AFC West.

12. C.J. Stroud (+5000, was +1300)

Stroud is officially having a sophomore slump. After putting together one of the best rookie seasons in history last year, he’s been a below-average starting quarterback in 2024. Injuries to his top wide receivers haven’t helped, but the only stat where Stroud is near the leaderboard is sacks taken, where he’s second-worst, ahead of only rookie Caleb Williams.

13. Jordan Love (+6000, was +3000)

He was awful in the loss to Detroit that immediately followed this series’ previous entry, and then he had a bye. He’s taken only one sack per game, the second best rate behind Derek Carr. But despite only playing seven games, he’s still tied for the league lead in interceptions. And his Packers are in third place in the NFC North.

14. Sam Darnold (+7500, was +3300)

Darnold continues to regress to the mean, as he now leads the league with 13 turnovers. He finally has all of his offensive weapons, but the Vikings will only go so far as their defense can take them until J.J. McCarthy is ready to take over in 2025.

15. Matthew Stafford (+15000, was +12000)

After throwing for 577 yards and six touchdowns in the previous two games, Stafford returned to who he was the first six weeks of the season, even with both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua fully healthy. He shouldn’t be this high. In fact, he should probably swap spots with the guy who beat him on Monday night, Tua Tagovailoa, who isn’t even on the board at FanDuel. At least he’s right behind Jared Goff among the league leaders in completion percentage.

T16. Geno Smith (+20000, was +10000)

Smith’s repeated red zone interceptions in Week 9 turned what should have been a big victory over the Rams into a devastating loss. He comes out of the bye still tied for the league lead in in interceptions for a last place team.

T16. Baker Mayfield (+20000, was +12000)

Mayfield is not going to get any postseason awards (he may have had a stronger case for Comeback Player of the Year than Joe Flacco last year), but he’s been a poor man’s Burrow, putting up incredible numbers for a team likely to finish under .500. Despite the loss of both of his star receivers, he still is tied for the league lead in touchdown passes, second in completion percentage, and he hasn’t lost a fumble all year.

T18. Derek Carr (+40000, no change)

Losing to Carolina in his return from injury probably doomed his Saints’ playoff chances in 2024, but Carr has still been quite good when healthy. He’s second to Lamar Jackson in adjusted net yards per attempt, and no one has been better at sack avoidance this year. But an under .500 QB who missed three games isn’t winning any awards.

T18. Russell Wilson (+40000, no change)

Wilson’s been great since taking over for Justin Fields, leading the Steelers to three straight wins. If he qualified, he’d be third in the league in yards per attempt and passer rating, and second in adjusted net yards per attempt. Had he been healthy from Week 1 and maintained this pace, he might’ve received an MVP vote this year for the first time ever.

T18. Bo Nix (+40000, was +30000)

A blocked walk-off field goal attempt ruined his opportunity to upset Patrick Mahomes and the undefeated Chiefs this past week, but Nix still deserves credit for a shockingly competent rookie season in which he’s outplayed every QB drafted ahead of him other than Daniels.

T21. Caleb Williams (+50000, was +12000)

Of the four first round QBs to play this season, Williams is last in completion percentage, yards per attempt, passer rating, QBR and adjusted yards per attempt. This, despite all the hoopla about how he came into the season with more weapons than any rookie quarterback, possibly ever. There’s no way to avoid saying that he’s struggled mightily. If you want to make any Bears bets, find a book with odds on Matt Eberflus to be the next coach fired.

T21. Aaron Rodgers (+50000, was +25000)

While Rodgers’ numbers don’t paint the picture of the worst quarterback in the league, the soon-to-be 41 year-old hasn’t had the comeback for the ages that some envisioned. Although, he does have the sixth best odds (+2600, FanDuel) to win Comeback Player of the Year.