Best anytime touchdown bets for Commanders vs. Eagles on Thursday of Week 11

What are the odds Zach Ertz scores against his former team?

First place in the NFC East is on the line when the Washington Commanders (7-3) visit the Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) on Thursday Night Football in Week 11. 

The Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the league, riding a five-game winning streak on the strength of a dominant defense. They are the betting favorites at -3.5 against the spread in this game, while the over/under is set at 48.5 total points at most betting sites. 

The Commanders are coming off a tough one-point loss to the Steelers last week, which dropped them out of first place in the division. They are looking to bounce back with a huge win on the road to reclaim the top spot. 

Commanders starting RB Brian Robinson Jr. has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury but will return for this contest. In his absence, veteran Austin Ekeler has scored three touchdowns in the last two games. Could either of those Washington backs be a good bet to score an anytime touchdown this week?

This article looks at the best anytime touchdown prop bets in this pivotal primetime game. Each pick is based on the best betting odds at the time of publication, but the odds are always subject to change, so shop around for the best odds at all of the best online sportsbooks before placing any bets. 

Jalen Hurts (-110, FanDuel)

For the last few weeks, Jalen Hurts has been the pick for the best Eagles anytime TD under the basic premise that the bet is worth making any time his anytime TD odds are better than even money. After four consecutive games with a rushing TD, including three games with multiple TDs, sportsbooks have wised up and have finally dropped his odds into negative territory. However, he is still priced close to even money at sportsbooks such as FanDuel, and that is still good enough to be an excellent bet again this week. 

Hurts is practically unstoppable when he gets close to the goal line, especially when the Eagles run their (in)famous “tush push” play. He has already scored 10 rushing touchdowns this season, trailing only the Ravens’ Derrick Henry (12) for the league lead. He now has double-digit rushing touchdowns in all four of his seasons as a full-time starter and his 51 career rushing TDs trails only Cam Newton and Josh Allen for the most all-time by a quarterback. 

Hurts has scored a rushing TD in six of his nine games this season and in 34 of his 61 games (55.7%) over the last four seasons. That is some incredibly consistent touchdown production that is not fully reflected in his -105 odds, which imply just a 51.2% probability. There is value in those odds, which currently sit at -110 at most NFL betting sites.

This also should be a good matchup and game script to produce scoring opportunities for Hurts. With a relatively high over/under, there is an expectation that the Eagles score at least two or three touchdowns in this game. The Commanders’ defense also struggles in the red zone, which is where Hurts is so effective. Washington has allowed touchdowns on 70% of its opponents’ red zone possessions, which is the third-highest rate in the league. The Eagles convert red zone opportunities into touchdowns at a 60% clip, 10th-best in the league. 

When the Eagles get close to the goal line, there is a good chance they will score a touchdown against Washington. And when they do, Hurts is the most likely player to punch it in. That makes him the best anytime TD bet in this game.

A.J. Brown (+130, bet365)

In two games against the Commanders last season, A.J. Brown racked up 17 catches on 21 targets for 305 yards and four touchdowns. Since joining the Eagles, he has scored touchdowns in three of his four games against Washington. So if there is an Eagles pass catcher to bet on scoring a touchdown this week, it’s Brown.

The Commanders’ pass defense has been terrible for multiple seasons. While it has been better this season than in recent years, there is a reason the front office went out and spent third and fourth round picks to acquire Saints CB Marshon Lattimore at the trade deadline. They desperately needed reinforcements in their secondary if they want to make a push to win the NFC East and make some noise in the playoffs. 

The problem is that Lattimore remains out with a hamstring injury and will not play this week, which means the Commanders will be relying on Benjamin St-Juste and rookie Mike Sainristil to try to slow down Brown. 

St-Juste has struggled this season and was the culprit on Steelers WR Mike Williams’ game-winning TD last week. Sainristil is a promising rookie but is playing out of position on the outside, where he is severely undersized at just 5’10” and 182 pounds. A.J. Brown is 6’2” and 225 pounds. No matter who lines up against him, Brown will have a major advantage in this game. 

Brown scored touchdowns in each of his first three games of the season but is currently on a three-game scoring drought. That is bound to change sooner than later, and this matchup creates a favorable situation for him to get back in the endzone. 

The Revenge Bets: Zach Ertz (+333, bet365), Jahan Dotson (+950, FanDuel)

Just for fun, here are two players who are facing their former teams: longtime Eagles tight end Zach Ertz and former Commanders first-round pick Jahan Dotson.

Ertz has been one of Jayden Daniels’ most reliable targets this season. He is second on the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards, and his nine targets in the red zone is a team high, but he has just one touchdown to show for it. The Eagles historically have struggled at defending tight ends, but this season they are one of two teams that has not allowed a touchdown to the position. How much longer can that continue? 

This will be Ertz’s second game against his former team since it traded him to the Cardinals in the 2021 season, and it will be his first game back in Philadelphia. It would be rather poetic for Ertz to score a touchdown against the Eagles and to do it in front of the fans who rooted for him for so many years. But this is not just a narrative pick. Ertz is a big part of the Commanders who is due for some positive touchdown regression.

Dotson has not made a huge impact for the Eagles since they traded a third-round pick to acquire him during the preseason. He has had some opportunities with injuries to Brown and DeVonta Smith earlier this season, but he failed to capitalize. He has just eight catches on 15 targets all season.

That said, Dotson has started to show more promise over the last two weeks. He has created explosive passing plays of 36 and 27 yards in the last two games, including one highlight reel catch against the Jaguars. Those plays could earn more trust from Hurts and could lead to more opportunities going forward. With +950 odds at FanDuel, betting on Dotson is a major longshot, but it could be worth a flier to see if this trend continues.