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  • expert headshot
    Jeff Hochman
    +642
    (65%)
    11-6 in Last 17 NCAAF ATS Picks
    NMEX +2.5
    -110
    Spread
    Picked: Dec 23 @ 1:32pm

    Analysis

    New Mexico’s opponents have a .728 win percentage against fellow bowl teams. The Lobos posted a 4-2 SU record, 5-1 ATS, and finished 3-3 in the stats. Minnesota opponent's win percentage is .545. The Golden Gophers went 1-5 SU, were outgained in four of five games, and had a -141 YPGD. Minnesota went 0-5 on the road, and with the Bowl being played in Arizona, the crowd is expected to strongly favor New Mexico. Jason Eck’s remarkable turnaround at New Mexico has generated significant momentum for the program. The Lobos are bowl-eligible for the first time since 2016 and have won six straight games. Eager for their 10th win, the Lobos are driven to make a statement by defeating a Big Ten opponent.
  • expert headshot
    Mike Tierney
    +341
    (61%)
    11-7 in Last 18 NCAAF Picks
    PITT -7
    -105
    Spread
    Picked: Dec 16 @ 11:00am

    Analysis

    Erase the starting QB, transfer-to-be Katin Houser, and both coordinators who left for greener pastures, and there's not much for East Carolina to hang its hat on. Pitt thrived on the road, winning four of five outright, and improved gradually as freshman QB Mason Heintschel got acclimated to the job. The Panthers' lone SU losses in their last eight games were to Notre Dame and Miami. No shame there.
  • expert headshot
    Mike Tierney
    +341
    (61%)
    11-7 in Last 18 NCAAF Picks
    PSU +3.5
    -110
    Spread
    Picked: Dec 15 @ 5:51pm

    Analysis

    Would anyone like to volunteer to join Clemson's roster? The Tigers wll be wthout at least two-dozen players from a combination of injuries, NFL draft preparation and intent to transfer. Somewhat encouraging is that QB Cade Klubnik, whose pro prospects have plummeted during a disappointing season, hopes to use the bowl to win over skeptical scouts, though he is left to pilot a stripped-down offense. Penn State, with a coaching change, also will suffer from the expected withdrawals, but the Nittany Lions do not face the depth headaches that confront Clemson. Penn State rallied to close with three SU wins to become bowl eligible, providing some momentum.
  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    +182
    (67%)
    4-2 in Last 6 NFL Picks
    HOU +2.5
    -112
    Spread
    Picked: Dec 23 @ 10:45am

    Analysis

    The Texans are coming off one of the worst wins of the season, needing a pick-six to beat the Raiders by two points. That's shifted this line through zero from the lookahead of Houston -1.5, along with the Chargers dominating an awful Cowboys defense. I expect the Raiders game to be a wake-up for Houston, and their edge rushers should have much more success against the Chargers' battered O-line than Dallas did. This feels to me like it could be decided by 1-2 points, so I'll take the value off the lookahead for what I think is the better team overall.
  • expert headshot
    Thomas Casale
    +288
    (80%)
    4-1 in Last 5 NCAAF Picks
    HOU -3
    -110
    Spread
    Picked: Dec 10 @ 2:50pm

    Analysis

    The more I look at this game, the more I like Houston. LSU already had three starters opt out and I expect more to come. Meanwhile, Willie Fritz and Houston are thrilled to be in the Texas Bowl after winning four games last season. The Cougars also get the luxury of playing a bowl game 20 minutes from campus with an excited fanbase that already bought out Houston's allotment of tickets. How many LSU fans do you think care about the Texas Bowl? How many LSU fans even know the Tigers are in the Texas Bowl? Houston has a young team, so I don't expect many opt outs. This is a case where motivation will play a big part in the outcome. Lay the -3.

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