Judge: Breakout players
When Clark Judge, my colleague at CBSSports.com, said he wanted to do a preview piece on 10 players he thought would have breakout seasons, I felt it only natural to go the other way.
You all think I'm Mr. Negative anyway.
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| Don't be surprised if purple passer Brett Favre grimaces a lot this season. (AP) |
I won't call them flops, because many of the 10 I picked will be far better than that. So I call them the Lower Than the Hype Bunch.
They won't live up to the hype.
Since it's about players, I didn't list the main thing from the coming season that won't live up the hype.
That's the Wildcat offense.
By next summer, we'll be looking back and laughing at all the hype over a gimmick that was little more than a one-year wonder.
Defensive coordinators will figure it out, just like they do every other wacky innovation. And then it will be gone.
Thankfully.
Here are the 10 players who make up my Lower Than the Hype Bunch:
Brett Favre, QB, Minnesota Vikings: I just don't get excited about a quarterback with a rebuilt shoulder who turns 40 this season. Favre didn't prove in the preseason he can throw down the field. Did anybody see that? He was a dink-and-dunk passer against the Texans. I know I'm in the minority on this one, but I think he doesn't get the Vikings to the playoffs.
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: Jones-Drew isn't here because of his abilities. He's a talented player. He's here because the Jaguars have issues on the offensive line, where two rookie tackles will start. And neither one is considered a mauler in the run game. The Jaguars also will struggle on defense, which could mean a lot of shootouts. That will limit Jones-Drew's carries. He will catch a lot of passes, but his running numbers might not be what some think.
Thomas Jones, RB, New York Jets: Leon Washington. That's why Jones will see his numbers go down. The Jets will get the ball into Washington's hands more, which they need to do. Jones is a grinder. Washington is a home-run runner. Jones rushed for 1,312 yards last season. At 31, he won't come close to that this season.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Seattle Seahawks: Seattle paid big money for a receiver who doesn't run that well. Houshmandzadeh is a complementary player who will catch 70 passes. But look for his average after the season. I bet it's less than 12 yards per catch. He was at 10.2 in 2007 and 9.8 last season. That's the sign of a possession receiver.
Orlando Pace, T, Chicago Bears: Have you watched him in the preseason? The Bears better hope he had a case of veteran's disease (taking the preseason off). If not, it could be a long year for Jay Cutler. Pace looked slow against the speed rushers in the preseason. If he struggles, the Bears have little help behind him.
Julius Peppers, DE, Carolina Panthers: I don't see a player who loves the game. He seems to be a check casher to me. And he's cashing a big one each week, playing for the franchise tag of more than $18 million. You would think he would be dedicated to land the big contract after this season. But he doesn't come across as that type of player. I think his production dips.
Hines Ward, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers: He's now the No. 2 option outside to Santonio Holmes and might be the third option after tight end Heath Miller. Ward is now a possession receiver who can still rack up catches, but he no longer can scare down the field. He's a good player, but not a great one. He caught 81 balls, but I look more for about 65 this season.
Chad Pennington, QB, Miami Dolphins: Pennington played out of his mind last season, leading the Dolphins to the playoffs. I'm not sure he can do that again. The weapons aren't great around him and he doesn't have the arm to challenge down the field. Plus, you never know how many snaps the Dolphins will take from him with that Wildcat. He is a free agent after the season, so this is a big year for him. He just doesn't back defenses off with that arm.
Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons: It's not that he won't have a successful season. It just won't be like last season. He carried it 376 times and the Falcons plan to cut that number down by about 50. The history of backs who carry it more than 325 times in one season says they will struggle the next. Turner could see some of his carries go to Jerious Norwood, but the Falcons also might be forced to throw the ball a lot more. Turner will get 1,000 yards, but he won't get the 1,699 he had last season.
Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo Bills: We'll call it the T.O. Factor at work. When Owens comes to a team, the quarterback has a tendency to force the football to him. That leaves the receiver on the other side angry. Owens should help Evans, who will see fewer doubles, but with Owens it doesn't always work that way. The gut feeling here is that Owens doesn't help Evans as much as some think.
Fantasy: Sleepers, breakouts, busts
