Mike Vick can play. Mike Vick can play. Mike Vick can play.
Those words came pouring out of many mouths Monday, the excitement evident in most of them after NFL commissioner Roger Goodell conditionally reinstated Vick for the 2009 season. Two lost years, a lengthy prison sentence, loss of millions and a beatdown in the court of public opinion later, Vick can once again play football in the NFL.
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| Vick must learn to control his instinct to run when protection breaks down. (US Presswire) |
Mike Vick can play.
So he's eligible to play again, but can he play? By that I mean is he capable of playing at a high level?
The euphoria we heard Monday about Vick's return overshadowed the reality of things from a playing standpoint: Is Vick worth signing?
His agent keeps saying teams are calling, but I tend to believe that's more hype than reality. Why isn't he signed yet?
Vick, right now, is really just a backup quarterback.
"What kind of shape is he in, what did the layoff do, what kind of attitude does he have when you tell him he's a backup?" one NFL personnel director said. "Those are all legitimate issues right now."
So is this number: 53.8.
That's Vick's career completion percentage. Lost in all his highlight-reel plays from his career is the fact that he simply wasn't a good passer. The highest completion percentage of his career was 56.4 in 2004. You want to bring some focus to that, consider this: Tarvaris Jackson, the quarterback everyone seemingly wants to replace in Minnesota, completed 59.1 percent of his passes last season.
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Vick's best passer rating -- and I agree this number can be overvalued -- was 81.6. Jackson's was 95.1 last season. Vick's career passer rating of 75.7 puts him behind Jason Campbell (80.4) and just ahead of Derek Anderson (75.1).
I'm not saying that either Jackson or Campbell or Anderson is better than Vick, but they might be better passers.
Back when Vick was with the Atlanta Falcons, and most everyone was caught up in his run-around ways, I always bucked the trend and said he needed to learn how to pass better before he could be considered an elite quarterback.
I remember Peerless Price, then a receiver for the Falcons, talking openly about how Vick never got to him on many passing plays because he didn't make the right reads. The coaching staffs babied Vick then, defending his passing, but in the end the lack of a quality passer probably cost Jim Mora his job.
The Falcons didn't have great receivers then, but they weren't being used either. For Vick, it was look to the first read, check down to Alge Crumpler, and then take off.
That has to change if he's to succeed now.
He's two years older, which means he's probably not as fast. Plays he used to make with his legs won't happen now. That could actually work to the advantage of the team that signs him. It will force him to grow as a passer.
That happens to a lot of run-around quarterbacks, age turning their first instinct to run into a calmer presence in the pocket, one capable of making the third and fourth reads.
Donovan McNabb is now a quality passer. He wasn't always. But as he matured, and learned not to take off at the first sniff of pressure after his first read, he became a much better quarterback. As his carries have decreased, his passing has improved.
The wow factor might not be the same, but wow doesn't win at the quarterback position. Good passers do.
Look at the history of the NFL. How many running quarterbacks have won Super Bowls? None. And don't tell me Steve Young was one, because by the time he won, he had become a deadly passer.
What about Vick packages? That's the latest rage when some try to figure out what Vick can bring to a team. If he can't start, you can put in packages for him.
That's why he's been linked to New England. Or Pittsburgh. But I have to ask: Why would you take the ball out of the hands of Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger to put in Vick packages? That would be flat-out stupid.
Teams that don't have a star passer might consider signing Vick to put in some special packages, even though I hate those things as nothing more than gimmicks. There was talk that the Jacksonville Jaguars were interested -- they aren't -- to put in Vick packages to go with David Garrard, who didn't exactly light it up last season. As critical as I've been of Garrard, he's a better passing option than Vick.
Some will say that the "Wildcat" offense is perfect for Vick. Well, that is what he ran in Atlanta, the modified Single Wing. But if he's in as the Wildcat triggerman, he's the quarterback running around, just like he was in Atlanta.
The rules are set up now for the passing game. The NFL made it that way. And the ball travels faster through the air than it does under anybody's arm, even Vick in his prime. So Vick as a quarterback is limited.
The way I see it, he's a backup now. Can he work hard to improve his passing game, something he didn't do before his prison sentence? Sure he can. He needs to watch tons of film, get a better understanding of progressions and then maybe he can be a quality starter again.
Only this time, he'd be a much better passer.
That run-around stuff might excite you, but it's not how you win games in the NFL.
Quarterbacks are meant to throw it. When Vick can prove he can do that better than he ever did, then he will be a starter again. Until then, questions will remain.
Mike Vick can play. Mike Vick can play.
But can he really?
