There was a time when the NBA Draft was where teams built their foundation. They pieced the puzzle together when possible, otherwise went for the best player available.
That time has passed.
With the likelihood of recent high school graduates going in the first round increasing exponentially, plus another half dozen or so young and unproven international players, Thursday's 2004 version of trying to pull a rabbit out of the hat isn't likely to rival last year's somewhat spectacular event.
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| High school standout Dwight Howard is Mike Kahn's pick to go No. 1 overall to the Magic.(AP) |
Or, as the late Wilt Chamberlain once said, it isn't so much that the high school players are getting drafted -- rather it's that teams actually play them.
But if you consider the impact of LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Kirk Hinrich last season, then maybe it can happen again. Particularly when you note the mileage the Dallas Mavericks got out of Josh Howard, the last pick of the first round, and Marquis Daniels, a four-year player at Auburn who wasn't even drafted.
Anthony, Wade, Howard and Daniels all were significant factors in the postseason as well as the regular season.
Maybe it's becoming less logical as time goes on, but then again, maybe not.
"There's a whole different level to reading the draft now," says Donnie Walsh, the CEO of the Indiana Pacers who has been involved in drafts for 25 years. "I walked into my scouting department and asked them how they could miss Daniels. There are four different ways to look at it. You have your top-level lottery picks, the high schools kids, the foreign kids and the college kids who have been playing three or four years and are probably more ready to contribute.
"Don't be surprised if rookies do continue to contribute. The league is in transition with a lot of guys ready to retire and stars like Kevin Garnett and Jermaine O'Neal who aren't quite ready to dominate all the time. That leaves the opening for guys to come in and make an impact quicker than we thought. But what LeBron, Carmelo and Wade did ... those guys are just special."
But for a team like the Pacers, who won 61 games last season and pick 29th, forget about any kind of impact from a rookie. In many cases, the draft has become the last avenue with which to build a team.
Free agency and trades are far more practical, because the players have a much longer track record to work with. Realistically, you can only have so many young players, and youth is even playing out in trades. These days, players are so young when they come in, they still have the opportunity to grow on another team.
Look at O'Neal, who barely played at all in four years with the Portland Trail Blazers after arriving right out of high school. He became a star with the Pacers and was still growing at the age of 22, with five years of experience. That's something to think about when considering what to do with picks these days, including drafting a guy and hoping he plays overseas for two or three years for physical and emotional maturity.
That's why so many teams are almost desperate to move their picks, and not just the high drawer teams. Even with the seventh pick of the first round, Phoenix Suns president Bryan Colangelo isn't thrilled with the prospects and would rather move it. He has a very young club built around Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Joe Johnson, Leandro Barbosa and Zarko Cabarkapa -- average age 22.6.
To add an even younger player would have been counterproductive and explains why Colangelo unloaded No. 7 to the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday for a second-round pick, a future first and $3 million.
He took a shot at wooing Tracy McGrady from Orlando for No. 7, Shawn Marion and Casey Jacobsen, but when the Magic demanded Joe Johnson instead of Jacobsen in the package, he dumped the pick to the Bulls. The move puts them further under the salary cap, providing more flexibility for the likes of veteran free agents Mehmet Okur, Derek Fisher or possibly Steve Nash.
"Given our circumstances, with our cap flexibility, the best way to advance our team would be to package the pick and trade it," Colangelo said. "We like seven, but we think to maximize free agency and retain the most options going forward, it suits us best to entertain offers to move out of the draft."
That's becoming the case more and more, for obvious reasons. Where general managers often look at the big picture in the draft, coaches have a much shorter lifespan. They have to win immediately, or they can be out of a job before they unpack. The younger the player, the less opportunity the coaches have to develop them.
Yes, the five-year deal for first-rounders works if a team elects to utilize the option clause for the fourth season and pay for the restricted free agency in year five. But if you look at a special person and player like Connecticut's Emeka Okafor, who at 6-feet-10, 250 pounds, has great potential as a shot-blocker and rebounder along the lines of Alonzo Mourning, understand he may get bumped from No. 1 overall by a high school kid. Maybe Dwight Howard will make the impact of a James or Anthony, or maybe not. It's a gamble. Once you drop down to about ninth or 10th, it's even more of a crapshoot.
"In fact," one general manager said, "once you get past the top eight, there's no difference between the rest of the players really. There are players going in the lottery that have no better chance of making it in this league than the guys who will go at the end of the first round.
"It's never been an exact science, but we've never known less about players coming in than we do now. That's not from a lack of scouting or effort on our part, it's just a lot less experience. When we're drafting kids out of Europe who played comparable to high school ball only less minutes and don't know the language, how can we expect them to help our team this year?"
One man's Mock Draft:
1. Orlando: Dwight Howard, F, 6-11, 240, S.W. Atlanta Christian Academy. The most talent in the draft and worth the wait to mature.
2. Charlotte: Emeka Okafor, F/C, 6-10, 250, Connecticut. Were it not for the stress fracture in his back, he'd go No. 1 -- and he still might.
3. Chicago: Luol Deng, F, 6-8, 210, Duke. This is a classic case of position needed and best player available rolled into one.
4. Los Angeles Clippers: Shaun Livingston, G, 6-7, 180, Peoria (Ill.) Central. Very young and strength is an issue, but he's an eye-popping ball-handler and passer and can shoot with range.
5. Washington: Josh Childress, G/F, 6-8, 210, Stanford. Smooth as silk with long arms and an improving shooting touch.
6. Atlanta: Andre Iguodala, G/F, 6-6, 210, Arizona. Great defender who brings to mind Scottie Pippen, but doesn't shoot well.
7. Phoenix: Ben Gordon, G, 6-3, 205, Connecticut. The classic scoring point guard who is incredibly strong with excellent range.
8. Toronto: Devin Harris, G, 6-3, 185, Wisconsin. Another scoring point guard, more smooth than powerful like Gordon.
9. Philadelphia: Andris Biedrins, F, 6-11, 240, BK Skonto Riga, Latvia. Scouts love his long arms and defensive ability, hoping the offense will come. The Sixers need a power forward.
10. Cleveland: Luke Jackson, F, 6-7, 220, Oregon. Larry Bird compared him to Chris Mullin and the Cavs need a shooter. Bingo.
11. Golden State: Jameer Nelson, G, 6-0, 190, Saint Joseph's. The player of the year, and the Warriors have constant injury issues at the position.
12. Seattle: Rafael Araujo, C, 6-11, 290, Brigham Young. A classic wide body, and he's got a nice shooting touch, where the Sonics need help badly.
13. Portland: Josh Smith, G, 6-9, 205, Oak Hill Academy (Va.). The latest from the basketball factory being called a young Dominique Wilkins.
14. Utah: Sergei Monya, F, 6-8, 220, CSKA Moscow (Russia). A classic pick for the Jazz -- hard worker, defensive-minded and can score eventually.
15. Boston: Pavel Podkolzine, C, 7-5, 275, Varese (Italy). The biggest player in the draft, he has good hands and can move. Good enough.
16. Utah: Kris Humphries, F, 6-9, 235, Minnesota. Could have used another year to get stronger, but another physical player -- sort of a 'tweener.
17. Atlanta: Robert Swift, C, 7-0, 245, Bakersfield (Calif.) High School. Great hands and huge wingspan make him attractive, even if he's not close to being ready for this level.
18. New Orleans: Kirk Snyder, G/F, 6-6, 235, Nevada. This is low for such a mature and physical player with great skills.
19. Miami: Peter John Ramos, C, 7-3, 275, Criollos de Caguas (Puerto Rico). This is another player who could go higher, but his skills and potential are dampened by very little experience.
20. Denver: J.R. Smith, G, 6-6, 220, St. Benedict's Prep (Newark, N.J.). An amazing jumper with great range on his jumper, but can he handle the ball in the NBA?
21. Utah: Al Jefferson, F, 6-10, 265, Prentiss (Miss.) High School. Young wide body with good footwork and touch around the basket, with range out to 12 feet.
22. New Jersey: Dorell Wright, 6-7, 210, South Kent (Conn.) Prep. Great athleticism and long arms, but there is question about the refined skills of shooting, passing and ball-handling.
23. Portland: Sebastian Telfair, G, 6-0, 170, Lincoln High School (Brooklyn, N.Y.). People love his talent, but his size and strength are an issue initially.
24. Boston: Danta Smith, G, 6-7, 215, Southeastern Illinois College. A three-position talent with a 7-foot wingspan, great shooting range and ball-handling ability.
25. Boston: Trevor Ariza, F, 6-7, 200, UCLA. Versatile defender, with a multitude of skills, but must develop a consistent shot to make it in the league. His athleticism is worth the look.
26. Sacramento: Viktor Khryapa, F, 6-9, 210, CSKA Moscow (Russia). Comes with a lot of the same skills as Andrei Kirilenko, which would make any coach happy if the results are the same.
27. Los Angeles Lakers: Chris Duhon, 6-1, 185, Duke. His shooting is questionable, but he plays hard, is smart and defends.
28. San Antonio: Anderson Varejao, F, 6-10, 230, F.C. Barcelona (Spain). A very aggressive player with size, but he has to work on his offensive skills to be an NBA factor.
29. Indiana: David Harrison, C, 7-0, 250, Colorado. They only hope a guy with his size and quickness lasts this long to give them some shot-blocking help.
Minnesota forfeited its pick because of sanctions over a rules infraction in 1999.
