On Saturday night, a competing sports and entertainment programming network will air Spike Lee's documentary with Kobe Bryant, Kobe Doin' Work. Yes, Kobe is doin' more work this weekend than most people expected; certainly more than he expected.
If you happen to be flipping through the channels and stop momentarily on the above-referenced sports and entertainment programming network, check out the promo for the documentary. There is a scene showing Kobe and Spike making small talk outside the glacially slow elevator at Madison Square Garden. This was after his 61-point game during the regular season. Your favorite NBA columnist is standing right there next to the elevator door. I had never been so happy with that stupid old elevator.
While we were waiting -- and waiting, and waiting -- Kobe proceeded to blame Spike for his 61-point outburst, which went right to the top of the list of legendary MSG performances. His rationale was that he was scheduled to screen the film with Lee after the game, and he didn't feel like hearing any smack from the filmmaker.
I took some notes.
Kobe: "Reggie Miller, your fault! M.J. 55, your fault! Sixty-one, your fault!"
Spike: "We filmed the wrong game though, right?"
Kobe: "We did. We should've had this one, man. Dammit."
Spike: "How many is LeBron gonna try to score Wednesday night?"
Kobe: "I don't know. I don't know. He's not a natural scorer, though. He's more of a facilitator."
Spike: "I know. But he sees you score 61 at the Garden? Come on."
Kobe: "That would be my inclination. He's more the passing type. He might come in here and have a quadruple double, though. He might have 33, 15, 12, and 10 steals or something."
Rule No. 1 in basketball: Know thy opponent. Kobe certainly knows LeBron, who followed Bryant's 61 points with 52 points, 11 assists, and nine rebounds in the next game. Their competitiveness, their common goal of going down in history as the player who carried on Michael Jordan's legacy, would make a Lakers-Cavs matchup in the NBA Finals the most anticipated series since Jordan retired. Even a Boston-L.A. rematch would be loaded with intrigue -- especially if Kevin Garnett makes a surprise comeback from the knee injury that has sidelined him for the entire playoffs.
There are only two problems with these dream scenarios. They are known as the Houston Rockets and Orlando Magic. Neither seems particularly interested in facilitating this made-for-TV drama. Well, and there's a third problem, too. Even if the Lakers get past the Rockets on Sunday, there's no guarantee the pre-ordained Kobe-LeBron extravaganza will happen in the Finals. The reason? The Denver Nuggets.
It's complicated, and trying to predict what will happen in the two Game 7s on Sunday -- Rockets-Lakers in the afternoon, Magic-Celtics at night -- is a trap. Both series have defied logic, and monumental figures are missing -- Garnett from the Celtics, Yao Ming from the Rockets.
So rather than attempt to tell you what will happen, let's take a look at how we got here. Why are the Rockets still alive without Yao? Why are the Magic still alive after getting their collective souls ripped out by Glen Davis in Game 4 and blowing a 14-point lead in Game 5?
First, the Rockets.
1. Aaron Brooks: Everyone in the Rockets organization knows that their hopes in Game 7 ride on their young point guard's shoulders. When he plays well, generally the Rockets win. When he plays poorly, they lose. The trend has held up in this series, and is especially pronounced with Yao's absence because Houston depends more on Brooks' penetrating and scoring ability without their featured scorer in the post. Despite the wide disparity in Brooks' numbers in Houston's wins and losses in this series, the Lakers have essentially defended him with the same approach throughout. Why the difference? Brooks is fearless, but he's also young and inexperienced. How he responds under the Game 7 pressure will go a long way toward determining the outcome.
• Series: Lakers 3, Rockets 3 | Magic 3, Celtics 3
2. Luis Scola: Why has he dominated the paint in the games Houston has won? Two reasons: He's a lot better than you think, and he has stepped out of a complementary role into a featured one with Yao out of the lineup. Remember, this guy was MVP of the FIBA Americas Tournament in 2007, a tournament in which the U.S. won the gold medal with a series of 40-point blowouts. Scola led Argentina to the silver, but he was so dominant that he was voted the MVP. He's perfectly capable of scoring in the low post with a diverse arsenal of moves and ballet-like footwork -- not to mention workmanlike grit on the boards and on the defensive end, something the Lakers decidedly lack on the nights when Andrew Bynum gives them nothing.
3. Team defense against Kobe: Bryant has had big games in this series, but most of his work has been on the perimeter. He's still deadly there, and might very well be deadly enough in Game 7 for the Lakers to win. But when Bryant is at his best, he's making the defense honor his drive as much as his shot. Led by Shane Battier's brains and Ron Artest's brawn, the Rockets have expertly closed off Bryant's lanes to the basket. Houston simply doesn't make defensive mistakes.
4. Bench play: Although they're using a much shorter rotation, the Rockets have gotten far more production from their bench. The Lakers' reserves have scored 160 points through six games, while Houston's shorter bench has produced 150. And Houston's reserves are shooting .431 in the series (56-for-130), doing more damage with limited opportunities compared to the Lakers' reserves, who are shooting .408 (60-for-147). Think about that: 17 fewer looks, four fewer baskets. It's so deceiving that the Lakers' bench has outscored the Rockets' in each of Houston's victories. The Rockets are getting much more efficient production.
|
|
| Kobe Bryant and the Lakers can't put away the pesky Rockets. (Getty Images) |
And now for the Magic ... this is a much easier one to figure out.
1. Garnett: He stalks. He curses. He screams. He points. He curses. He rehabs. Garnett has made his presence felt both on the court and off, but that's minuscule compared to the impact he would've had if he had been healthy and playing. Kendrick Perkins still would've defended Dwight Howard, but the basket would've looked a lot smaller with K.G. helping from the weak side. And Rashard Lewis, who doesn't drive the lane enough even without Garnett there, would've gone nowhere near the basket if K.G. had been playing. With Garnett at full strength, the Celtics would've been getting ready for Cleveland right now -- and wouldn't have needed seven games in either series.
2. Howard: This series has ebbed and flowed with the Man Child's level of interest and commitment. His uneven aggression -- and Orlando's maddening offensive style of playing outside-in and relying almost exclusively on Howard's advantages on the move and with putbacks -- has conspired to give the tiring champs new life. In his first career Game 7, Howard will need to do more. Orlando pulled away in Game 6 because the Celtics ran out of gas -- and in spite of the fact that Howard attempted only one field goal in the fourth with Big Baby Davis defending him for long stretches.
3. Celtics' fatigue: Let's face facts -- the defending champs are tired. They're weary. They had no legs in the fourth quarter of Game 6, just as was the case for long stretches in the previous two games, which they rescued with sheer determination, big shot-making and a strong dose of Orlando jitters. It's Boston's second straight seven-game series and fourth dating to last year's playoffs. But with four overtime games against the Bulls, spanning seven overtime periods, the Celtics will begin the per-minute equivalent of their 15th playoff game in this postseason after the first minute of the second quarter on Sunday. That's a lot of minutes, and they've certainly taken their toll. Other than perhaps Howard's state of mind and his level of aggressiveness, the Celtics' fatigue is the single most important factor in Game 7. Will the 48 hours of rest make a difference?
4. Ray Allen/Courtney Lee: Speaking of fatigue, no other plausible explanation exists for Allen going 0-for-7 on 3-pointers in Game 6, a closeout game for Boston, and 5-for-36 in the series. Allen's struggles have allowed Stan Van Gundy to get away with a significant tactical error in this series -- starting J.J. Redick over Lee once Lee returned from a fractured sinus in Game 3. Van Gundy's explanation Thursday night was dubious at best -- that he felt Lee's speed allowed him to match up better than Redick on reserve Eddie House. So let me get this straight: You deploy your best defensive player on House, and not Allen? Van Gundy is in a real pickle with that decision in Game 7, because oddly enough, it has worked. Yes, Lee is a better defender, but he hasn't been playing Allen the entire series. Does Van Gundy take a chance that Allen will stay cold and start Lee, who also is a clutch shooter who could help Orlando jump out to an early lead and take the crowd out of the game? Or does he keep Redick on Allen and take his chances with Redick's awful shooting? Redick is 8-for-23 from beyond the arc in the series and was 0-for-7 from the field in Game 6. Incredibly, Lee has attempted only four 3-pointers in the four games he has played against Boston.
5. Point guard play: Rajon Rondo has the clear advantage over Rafer Alston, as you would expect. But despite the firestorm over Howard's touches, Van Gundy has done an underrated job hiding Alston at key moments in this series. He had no choice in Game 3, when backup Anthony Johnson played the game of his life with Alston serving a one-game suspension. In Game 6, Alston sat significant minutes in the fourth quarter, which kept Lee on the floor for defensive purposes. When Alston checked back in at the 4:24 mark, he immediately hit a 3-pointer that gave Orlando a 75-73 lead. With 1:52 left, Alston drove the lane for a floater that made it 78-75, a margin the Magic never relinquished.
