We've spent the better part of the 2009 offseason wondering about the fate of one Harry Leroy "Doc" Halladay. We have speculated about his salary demands, his no-trade clause, his eventual salary demands, his climate preferences and the geolocation of his relatives. It has been all Halladay, all the time. It has been a broken record.
As a result, we now know everything we need to know about Halladay's arm, head, 'tude and intangibliciousness. We can recite epic poems about his effect on the Toronto competitive psyche and payroll. There are no secrets.
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| It's hard to believe how far Vernon Wells has fallen. If Toronto gets a chance to dump his contract, it should take it. (US Presswire) |
The proposed solution involves loads of investment, wishcasting and luck, but I think we can Save This Franchise!™©®, both for the short term and the long. This isn't anywhere near the thankless project it has been made out to be.
Overview: On May 18, the 2009 Jays sat atop the platinum-encrusted AL East, 13 games over .500 and about a week away from inspiring a crush of "maybe, just maybe ... " feature stories. Then they started playing the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays and ... well, that was that.
Despite the 75-87 finish, there were several positives to take away from the 2009 campaign. Ricky Romero developed into something interesting. Adam Lind (.305/.370/.562) and Aaron Hill (.286/.330/.499) emerged as stars. The team scored more runs than it surrendered (798-771), which usually results in a far better record. Marco Scutaro played well enough to hit the open market as a Type-A free agent, which means the Jays will net two high picks when he signs with the Red Sox or the Dodgers within a fortnight. The record says "disaster;" a closer look upgrades the final verdict to "huh -- go figure."
Assets: Hill, Lind and Travis Snider could prove one of the game's best young 3-4-5 trios. Snider in particular should explode -- in the good way, not in the Kevin Maas way. At age 21, he started to figure stuff out with a .295/.380/.525 line in the season's last 17 games. If they get anything close to above-average support from the fellas set to man first base (Lyle Overbay), third base (Edwin Encarnacion) and center field (Vernon Wells), this projects as a pretty darn OK offense.
Along those lines, don't you get the impression that Encarnacion, still only 26, is the type of lazy jerkhead boob who will realize his enormous potential in the season right before he's due a new contract? You know, in a season like this one? Based on nothing other than his prior indifference toward every aspect of the game that doesn't involve sunflower seeds or hotdogging during batting practice, I'm predicting an All-Star nod and an endorsement push that lands him several promotional appearances on behalf of Ontario's third-largest tire wholesaler.
Meanwhile, this isn't to downplay the damage recently excommunicated GM J.P. Ricciardi delivered upon the Jays during his tenure -- the Wells and B.J. Ryan contracts, the opt-out clause in A.J. Burnett's deal, the state of disrepair into which the farm system has been allowed to fall -- but he enjoyed two inspired moments on the way out. He talked the Reds into assuming Scott Rolen's beast of a contract and rid the team of Alex Rios via some nifty "no, YOU take him" waiver tomfoolery. That won't prompt the Jays to hold a J.P. Appreciation Night or retire his hair glaze, but those two moves give Alex Anthopoulos some wiggle room he wouldn't otherwise have.
Liabilities: The Jays call Toronto home, rather than Saskatoon or Kamloops. This is lovely from an enjoy-culture/dine-on-delicacies-other-than-moose-rump standpoint, but cripplingly superawful from a divisional-assignment one. Barring some kind of miracle shift, the Jays will be forever forced to compete directly with two hyper-entitled franchises that consider 86-win seasons a debacle on par with Vietnam. This removes all margin for error: If the Jays whiff on their upcoming player-development push, they're looking at the second half of next decade as their next legit contention window.
To state the obvious, the pitching wasn't good in 2009. Even with Halladay and Romero headlining the rotation, the Jays found themselves battered more often than not. The returns from injury of half the 2008 staff could help on the depth front, I guess. But as it was, the Jays walked too many batters in 2009 and command is usually slow to return in the wake of limb catastrophes. The development of Shaun Marcum and Brett Cecil looms large.
Non-helpful and semi-realistic suggestions
1. Spend some cash: Toronto ain't small. Rogers Communications isn't poor. What am I missing here?
I know, I know: Only one team in baseball can afford to spend its way out of a development abyss, and the Jays are not that team. Still, judging by the size of their corporate daddy's wallet alone, the Jays can afford to keep Halladay. Hell, they can snatch up John Lackey and then two preeminent Canadian free agents -- Jason Bay and Erik Bedard -- to boot. Have you ever heard Canadian people say "boot"? Adorable!
The challenge Anthopolous has in front of him is to create something sustainable, which requires building via the draft and holding off on big-ticket additions until the kids have matured. But let's not portray this as a baseball-on-a-budget situation. If the Jays want to spend, they can do so whenever they want. If they want to turn a profit, they can do that, too.
2. Let the free agents walk: The Jays have already moved in this direction, signing Alex Gonzalez to replace Marco Scutaro and acknowledging that they'll liberate Rod Barajas to pursue a .285 OBP on somebody else's dime. Assuming they offer both guys arbitration and both turn them down, the Jays will net three high draft picks for their troubles.
Scutaro's fine 2009 notwithstanding, he's not a slam-dunk candidate for a repeat performance at age 34. As for replacing Barajas, there's not much out there on the free-agent market. Arizona's Chris Snyder could be had via trade and would be a nice fit, but he's owed $11.25 million over the next two years. Maybe the Jays might call on the Indians about Kelly Shoppach -- or better still, wait to see whether Shoppach is non-tendered later this month.
3. Focus on defense: Hey, it worked for the Mariners, sort of. Hill, Gonzalez and the re-upped John McDonald give the Jays three premium infield defenders. If the team goes defense-first behind the plate, that would give the young and rehabbed pitchers a defensive safety net.
On the other hand, the Jays already boast several players -- Lind, Encarnacion, Randy Ruiz -- whose defense exists only in the realm of hobbits and hovercrafts. As a result, they can't go out and sign one of the numerous DH types who would provide good value on the dollar (Jim Thome would be a fine fit). This is a problem: the Jays' needs don't align with the players who are readily obtainable this winter.
4. Accept that Vernon Wells isn't going anywhere unless somebody slips some roofies into another GM's tea: Within the more optimistic pockets of the fan base, there's a small glimmer of hope that, should the Jays choose to swallow another team's bad contracts (note the plural), they'll be able to unburden themselves of their $107 million anvil. Let's be clear: this ain't happening. It ain't happening even if the Jays pair Wells with two young prospects and ask for nothing back in return.
(Wild, stupid hypothetical: What if the Jays offered to gift Halladay to any team that takes Wells, much in the same way that they parted with Rios and received nothing in return? Do the Yankees or Red Sox want Halladay so badly that they would swallow $107 million of mediocrity? The Jays can't do this for PR reasons, but it would certainly be an efficient way to clear the books.)
The silver lining, if there is one, is Wells himself. He plays hard, as opposed to Rios. He's not a pox on the clubhouse. He knows that he stunk in '09. He's just overpaid. It's hard to muster up much hatred for a guy like that.
What do you do, then? You suggest very nicely that Wells arrive at spring training in primo physical shape, whether by ridding his diet of croutons or by embarking upon the type of core-flexibility regimen that somehow transformed Derek Jeter back into a passable defensive shortstop. By the way, "I improved my core flexibility by doing yoga" will be 2010's "I worked on building strength, not muscle."
5. Keep Roy: The problem, as it has been noted once or twice, is that teams aren't bidding for the prime years of Halladay's career. They're bidding for one year of an over-30 Halladay and the right to ink him to a nine-figure contract that will take him into his late 30s.
Viewed in that context, and in light of the pittance Mets gave up for a similarly situated Johan Santana, I can't see why the Yankees or Red Sox would part with the monster package many Jays fans expect Halladay to fetch. If you're the Yankees or Red Sox, you know you'll have a shot at adding a top free-agent pitcher anytime one hits the market. Why give up 10 years' worth of cost-controlled players (Phil Hughes, Clay Buchholz, etc.) for a single guaranteed year of Halladay when there's a shot you might be able to get the guy after 2010 for cash alone?
If somebody overwhelms the Jays with a package featuring near-ready pitching or A-list prospects at shortstop or catcher, sure, trade Halladay tomorrow. I just can't see anyone, save maybe for the Angels, presenting an offer that's more quality than quantity. If they don't get that offer, the Jays have to walk away from the table.
Odds of playing meaningful games next September: 10 to 1. Again, that's a prediction framed in the context of the AL East, not one that reflects how the Jays would perform anywhere else. There are resources here, financial and otherwise, and there is a core of enormously able performers (Hill/Lind/Halladay/Romero/Frasor). They would have a solid chance of success in both central divisions. I'm bullish.
The Rogers Centre was once an awesome place to taunt the dickens out of Cal Ripken Jr. and send paper airplanes dive-bombing into the bullpen from your hotel-room perch, which I totally never did. It can be fun again, as soon as this April.
The choice, it seems to me, is between cutting back to a $60 million payroll or jumping forward into the $120 million range. The only bad solution is remaining in the middle. Choose wisely, Men of Toronto, and aggressively.
ScarTown Bandit 
