Want to feel better about yourself and the team upon which you lavish your affection and disposable income? Chat up a bunch of Mets fans.
Seven weeks after the regular season mercifully grounded to a halt, they remain in a state of sublime agitation. Never mind the twin September collapses in 2007 and 2008, nor a 2009 in which the team invented new ways to lose -- via multiply misdiagnosed injuries, baserunning so indecisive that it sparked a new dance craze and team defense based around the principles of evasion. No, it got worse still after the season concluded, when Mets fans were forced to maintain their dignity during a World Series that featured their cross-town foe against their trash-talking divisional rival. A friend likened it to "watching your jerk older brother fight the bully down the street." Me, I would've ignored the games altogether, but denial is deeply ingrained in my personality.
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| Outside of the occasional fielding gaffe, Luis Castillo isn't the worst guy to have on your team. (Getty Images) |
The Mets present less of a challenge than most of last season's loserheads, because they've got cash (probably -- see below) and a core. They won't turn around last year's 70-92 record, but they'll finish on the sunny side of .500 if the players can manage to avoid errant banana peels in the clubhouse walkways. Mona, fetch me my stethoscope and some leeches. It's time for some franchise-savin'.
Overview: The Mets are one of the most difficult teams in the league to evaluate from afar, owing to a foggy financial picture. On one hand, the new ballpark -- the region's best -- should continue to generate piles upon piles of revenue. Similarly, the team likely snares more cash for its Spanish-language radio broadcast rights than the Royals do for their radio rights, TV rights, merchandising, ticket sales and rent-a-player-Thursdays combined.
On the other hand, depending on which source-who-requested-anonymity-as-he/she/it-is-not-authorized-to-discuss-such-matters you believe, the Wilpon family either made $250 million or lost $600 gatrillion in the Bernie Madoff scam. Since they're not inviting baseball dullards like yours truly to pore over the books, we can only speculate as to the relative bloat or depletion of the bank account. The Mets might have millions to spend this offseason, with the contracts of Carlos Delgado, Billy Wagner and J.J. Putz coming off the payroll, or they might be raiding mall fountains for spare change. Your guess is as good as mine.
Assets: I count exactly four: Johan Santana, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and David Wright, all of whom rank in the top five in the league at their positions when healthy. "When healthy," alas, represents a Gwynn-sized asterisk, given that each of the four spent at least two weeks of the 2009 season in disabled-list purgatory. Nonetheless, this remains one of the best (and most economically viable) four-man cores in the National League. Teams have succeeded with far less.
Liabilities: Who's in charge here? Jerry Manuel may be the game's preeminent hepcat skipper and, as such, a go-to guy for advice about hand-rolled cigarettes and Charles Mingus CDs. But he makes way, way, way too many decisions based on "feel"; whatever you think about the Moneyball revolution, it is borderline negligent for a circa-2009 manager to dismiss advanced statistimacal metrics out of hand or only to tap them selectively.
As for the front office, the professional emasculation of Omar Minaya concluded when the bosses liberated another few of his scout/development cronies to pursue other opportunities. In short, the Minaya/Manuel tandem is less Alderson/La Russa than Milli/Vanilli. They're meat if the team doesn't start strong in '10,
On the field, the pitching staff is a sinkhole, especially the rotation. His reported offseason gestation at the Athletes Performance Institute in Arizona notwithstanding, Ollie Perez makes up in sloth what he lacks in laziness. John Maine would be a great asset if he could remain upright, which is like saying a piano would be a great asset if it could tap-dance. Mike Pelfrey spent most of 2009 backing up the plate as runners dashed homeward. If you're looking for a place to start the healing, this is it.
Non-helpful and semi-realistic suggestions:
1. Stop acting like mid-market ninnies: If I were a Mets fan -- and I thank my family elders every day for having steered me in the opposite direction -- I wouldn't bemoan the Yankees' ability to spend freely on ballplayers. Rather, I'd imitate their every move.
Maybe somebody needs to give the Mets a map, which would reveal that they have chosen to hang their shingle adjacent to a huge, wealthy population center. They should be taking advantage of the current system -- how it practically encourages teams with healthy revenue streams to trample the poor kids -- just as the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies have. They should be telling Bud Selig where he can stick his recommended draft-slot dollars and weaving strands of white gold into their uniform lapel. Capitalism RULZ.
2. Along those lines, go out and buy John Lackey: They'll have to pay a premium (5 years/$85 million?), but Lackey would instantly restore the credibility of the rotation. Yes, there are concerns about his shoulder, but let's be honest: Is there a pitcher on the planet whose arm is 100 percent guaranteed to remain intact in 2010? Don't forget: Until last season, everybody thought Santana was bulletproof. Hurling a baseball plateward at ungodly speeds is not a natural physiological act, which means the Metsies have to roll with the risk.
As for the rotation behind Lackey, color me skeptical that Joel Piñeiro's coincidental free-agent-year transformation into a ground-ball pitcher will stick. For depth behind Santana/Lackey, I am going to propose an addition that, while psychically traumatizing, makes loads of baseball sense: bring back Carl Pavano to New York. Including the playoffs, he threw 200 innings last year in the big-boy league with excellent control. The vast dimensions of Citi Field will forgive many of his mistakes; the weak NL lineups will forgive even more. It doesn't hurt that he'll come cheaper than equivalent or lesser inning-gobblers (Jason Marquis et al).
3. Don't feel compelled to absorb a crappy contract: Luis Castillo has become the focal point for fan disgust in the wake of his effort-free 2008 and his game-losing drop of a simple pop-up against the Yankees in 2009. That said, the guy plays acceptable defense and put up an OBP of .387 last season, which is not drastically out of line with his career mark of .369. That makes him a mild asset, even at the price of $12 million over the next two seasons.
If you deal Castillo, you do so for a medium-grade bullpen prospect or two. What you don't do is compound the perceived damage by exchanging him straight up for another team's big-money mistake. There's been speculation that the Mets would happily swap Castillo straight up for Juan Pierre and the $18.5 million left on his contract, which would be like exchanging a splintering bat for a shattered one. Pierre played reasonably well in 2009, but his speed is declining with age and he's become a liability in left field. His arm is Damonesque and he doesn't pursue fly balls so much as encircle them.
Castillo may be a headache, but he's one that you can live with. The other bloated contracts the Mets might conceivably be asked to take in a deal for him -- Pierre, Magglio Ordoñez, Aaron Rowand, Carlos Silva, Gary Matthews Jr. -- are not. And before it is even suggested, let's dispense with the idea of including Castillo in a trade for Milton Bradley, who'd be assaulting LaGuardia-bound loudmouths before his flight even touched down.
4. Sweat the small stuff: In their haste to occupy the rotation slots behind Santana and bring in a masher to play left field, the Mets have paid only cursory attention to their other holes. Here, again, is where the team should chuck some dollars around -- on a guy like Kiko Calero for the 'pen, on a possible non-tender candidate like Mike Fontenot as a utility salve, on Carlos Delgado if he's willing to take a pay cut. A lefty bat to platoon with Omir Santos behind the plate would be a good idea; working a trade for Arizona's Chris Snyder would be an even better one, assuming the guy's back isn't still locked up.
5. Turn off the damn radio: Right now, the louder, dumber component of the Mets fan base is in midseason form. They're carping for the team to sign four outfield bats, just in case. They're proposing trades that hinge on Toronto's willingness to accept Fernando Martinez -- who, even at the tender age of 21, appears to have more than a bit of Alex Escobar in him -- straight up for Roy Halladay.
Barring a stars-align scenario of the sort that led to the Mets' acquisition of Santana, the team can't satisfy this part of its fan base. I wouldn't even try. Making moves for the sake of making moves can only divert them for so long, and in the process the team will hamstring itself for the months and years ahead. You can't win the offseason, so to speak.
Odds of playing meaningful games next September: About 5 to 1 against, owing more to the competitiveness of their division than to the magnitude of the current mess. Right now, the Phillies look imposingly good -- and that's before one factors in rebound years from Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge -- and the Braves boast both a pitching surplus and a wealth of ripe young talent. The Mets still have that core four, though, and their return to anything approximating 2008 form should push the team toward something akin to contention.
Tinman1188 
