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NAIL OF THE DAY SAT 11/28- In the Black Saturday
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- NAIL OF THE DAY SAT 11/28- In the Black Saturday
The Raven Guru
Reputation:98
Level:Superstar
Since:Mar 28, 2008
November 27, 2009 7:37 pm
Score: 134

Welcome to the Nail of the Day thread for Saturday November 28th 2009.  Today is in the black Saturday due to the incredible run by many who post here on this thread.  We all have plenty to be thankful for this holiday season and it sure seems like karma is on our side.  Special shout out to Nail, hope you had a good birthday yesterday and continue on your amazing hot streak.  We all appreciate the time and effort you put into the thread not only posting the thread but going out of your way when you find something you feel would be useful to the community to post it for all of us to benefit. 

Great day of action today featuring College Football, College Basketball, NBA, and NHL not to mention Soccer and I will post a few horse plays.  Gives us a nice mixture of sports and handicapping to bring out the best in everyone.  Please post your plays for the day with a write-up on your reasoning behind the selection.  Everyone is welcome but we as a group ask just one thing of any new poster and that is to keep it positive.  The atmosphere the last day or two has been tremendous which considering the number of winners being posted is there any reason why it wouldn't. 

Good luck today!

RG
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- NAIL OF THE DAY SAT 11/28- In the Black Saturday
The Raven Guru
Reputation:98
Level:Superstar
Since:Mar 28, 2008
November 27, 2009 8:45 pm
Score: 58

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 28
Virginia Tech 30 - VIRGINIA 9—Doubt Al Groh has many tricks left up his
sleeve after the embattled Virginia mentor emptied the playbook in last week’s
loss at Clemson. It’s no fluky technical trend that Hokies are 26-12 vs. spread away
from home since 2004, as a potent rushing attack combined with their strong
defense & special teams make a reliable winning formula on road. TV-ESPN
(08-VA. TECH 17-Va. 14...T.24-12 T.52/216 U.31/172 T.15/28/1/176 U.8/15/1/77 T.0 U.0)
(08-TECH -7' 17-14 07-Tech -3' 33-21 06-TECH -17 17-0...SR: Virginia Tech 48-37-5)

CONNECTICUT 33 - Syracuse 14—Sure, there’s some concern the
Huskies’ emotional well might be a little dry after last week’s OT win at Notre
Dame. But keep in mind UConn still needs one more victory to be bowl eligible.
And good chance relentless RBs Todman & Dixon (combined 1556 YR) will
wear down depleted Syracuse defense.
(08-Conn. 39-SYR. 14...C.16-8 C.44/259 S.36/96 C.7/15/0/70 S.6/23/3/51 C.0 S.0)
(08-Conn. -9' 39-14 07-CONN. -19 30-7 06-SYR. -1' 20-14...SR: Connecticut 3-2)

DUKE 24 - Wake Forest 23—Prefer to take points in battle of ACC also-rans.
Duke program definitely on the upswing since respected HC Cutcliffe took
charge, while regressing Wake already assured of its first losing campaign in
last 4 seasons. Passive Deacon defense has only 14 takeaways this year after
leading nation with 37 in 2008.
(08-W. FOR. 33-Duke 30 (OT)...D.21-16 D.37/145 W.43/112 W.18/31/0/232 D.19/27/2/231 W.1 D.2)
(08-WFU -7' 33-30 (OT) 07-Wfu -7' 41-36 06-WFU -20' 14-13...SR: Duke 53-34-2)

Clemson 27 - SOUTH CAROLINA 19—Since USC enduring another lateseason
swoon in brutal SEC, favor hot Clemson squad (6 straight wins; 4-1 vs.
spread) gunning for its 11th series win in past 13 seasons. HC Steve Spurrier
has taken over play-calling duties, but without a supportive ground game (SECworst
116 ypg), doubt ‘Cocks****’ poorly-protected QB Garcia (sacked 33 times!)
finds many open receivers vs. blanket-covering Tiger secondary (18 ints.).
Clemson’s record-setting RB Spiller top homerun threat on gridiron, and RS
frosh QB Parker (49 of 74 for 662 yds. last 3 games) getting better and better.
TV-ESPN
(08-CLEM. 31-S. Car. 14...S.20-19 C.47/184 S.26/92 S.22/48/4/212 C.12/17/0/199 C.2 S.0)
(08-CLEM. -1 31-14 07-Clem. -3 23-21 06-Usc +5' 31-28...SR: Clemson 65-37-2)

North Carolina 31 - NORTH CAROLINA ST. 17—Revenge doesn’t always
work, but Butch Davis appears in good position to excise pound of flesh from
Wolfpack after his Heels dropped last two meetings against their in-state
nemesis (including humiliating 41-10 beatdown at Chapel Hill LY). Defenseless
State has lost 6 of its last 7, with 5 of those defeats by at least 20 points.
Meanwhile, Carolina has captured 4 straight, largely on the strength of its swarming
stop unit that has snagged 10 takeaways in just last 2 games. TV-ESPN2
(08-N. Car. St. 41-N. CAR. 10...S.18-13 S.45/187 U.26/56 S.17/28/0/279 U.14/28/3/147 S.0 U.3)
(08-Ncs +11' 41-10 07-NCS -3' 31-27 06-UNC +3' 23-9...SR: North Carolina 63-29-6)

Missouri 41 - Kansas 29—Missouri’s “D” still not reliable. But big-time aerial
combination of 6-5 soph Blaine Gabbert to 6-5 sr. Danario Alexander is.
Alexander (42 recs., 710 yards, 7 TDs in just the last four games!) dominating
most secondaries lately. And Kansas is not only slumping (six straight losses;
8 straight pointspread Ls), but is also fighting the distractions regarding Mark
Mangino’s methods. Dog is 5-1 last 6 in series, but must lean to revengeseeking
Mizzou in bitter “Border War.” (at Kansas City, MO) TV-ABC
(08-Kansas 40-Mo. 37...K.24-23 M.26/190 K.32/63 K.37/51/2/375 M.25/42/2/288 K.0 M.1)
(08-Kan. +16 40-37 at KC 07-Mo. +2 36-28 at KC 06-MO. -7' 42-17...SR: EVEN 54-54-9)

*Tennessee 24 - KENTUCKY 16—Although UK ended one protracted losing
streak in 34-27 comeback win at UGA (1st win in Athens since ‘77!), won’t ask
Wildcats to snap this 24-game series losing skein. UT’s tackle-breaking RB
Hardesty (1028 YR, 5.1 ypc) allows steady QB Crompton to work play-action vs.
UK’s permissive front 7 (yielding 4.6 ypc). Meanwhile, UK’s still-learning true frosh
QB Morgan will be hard-pressed to solve Vols’ Tampa-2 zone. After losing first 3
SEC road games vs. foes with a combined 30-3 record, Vols prevail again in
Lexington, where Brooks’ squad has dropped 5 straight SEC tilts. TV-ESPNU
(08-TENN. 28-Ky. 10...T.16-11 T.53/210 K.38/96 T.6/8/0/101 K.9/14/0/97 T.0 K.0)
(08-TENN. -4' 28-10 07-Tenn. +2' 52-50 (OT) 06-TENN. -20' 17-12...SR: Tennessee 72-23-9)

������Mississippi 30 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 13—With 8-3 Ole Miss in the
hunt for a major bowl, give support to superior Rebel squad that’s 7-2-1 vs.
spread in last 10 Egg Bowls. Ole Miss’ sizzling, multi-dimensional, Darren
Sproles-like (say NFL scouts) weapon McCluster (430 YR last 2 games; threw
TD pass vs. LSU!) finishing his career with a flourish. Meanwhile, look for
Rebels to put 8-9 in box to smother Bulldogs RB Dixon, especially with MSU’s
stagnating aerial game providing little balance lately (just 148 YP last 2 games).
(08-MISS. 45-Miss. St. 0...U.22-8 U.44/220 S.26/M51 U.16/24/1/241 S.10/30/2/88 U.1 S.0)
(08-MISS. -17 45-0 07-MSU -6 17-14 06-MISS. -3 20-17...SR: Mississippi 60-39-6)

TCU 52 - New Mexico 0—Acknowledge UNM’s improved efforts the past
month, but now that Lobos properly sated after win over Colorado State allowed
them to avoid the dreaded “big donut” in ‘09, they’ll be quick to wave the white
flag in Fort Worth. TCU (covered last 6; win margin 36 ppg since Air Force
scare) taking no chances with pollsters as it continues quest for guaranteed
BCS berth, and MWC sources not convinced Mike Locksley’s version of the
spread gets past midfield vs. swarming Frog stop unit.
(08-Tcu 26-N. MEX. 3...T.20-9 T.48/171 N.32/56 N.7/23/2/130 T.16/26/1/120 T.0 N.1)
(08-Tcu -6' 26-3 07-TCU -4 37-0 06-Tcu -6' 27-21...SR: TCU 7-3)

Southern Miss 31 - EAST CAROLINA 30—C-USA scouts raving about the
job second-year HC Fedora doing at Southern Miss, as the former Oklahoma
State offensive coordinator has piloted Eagles to 4 wins in last 5 games despite
losing starting QB Austin Davis earlier in campaign. USM has better offensive
weaponry than host ECU, although Pirates do enjoy strong home-field edge at
Greenville. ECU can clinch C-USA East.
(08-S. MISS 21-E. Car. 3...S.16-10 S.40/145 E.21/66 S.18/30/0/239 E.20/34/2/189 S.1 E.0)
(08-USM -2' 21-3 07-Usm -1' 28-21 06-Ecu +6 20-17 (OT)...SR: Southern Miss 26-8)

Ucf 27 - UAB 17—Wouldn’t lay many points against productive UAB sr. QB
Webb and hard-trying Blazers, who need one more victory to be bowl eligible for
first time since 2004. But, as long as spread fair, support UCF based on its
superior defense and much improved offense (340 ypg; nation’s-worst 230 ypg
in 2008).

Marshall 37 - UTEP 30—Thundering Herd certainly no road warriors in
recent seasons, although improved Marshall has covered its last 4 away from
Huntington. Potent UTEP still a dangerous dog. But Miners have meandered
into mediocrity after early upsets over Houston & Tulsa, and rumors swirling
about HC Price’s likely resignation/retirement.
(06-MARSHALL -3 49-21...SR: EVEN 1-1)

SMU 44 - Tulane 20—C-USA scouts advising us to stay away, FAR AWAY,
from troubled Tulane, which has covered just 2 of its last 14 games on board.
Green Wave had 5 turnovers and just 50 total yards in last week’s 49-0
beatdown at UCF!
(08-TULANE 34-Smu 27...T.24-16 T.42/220 S.13/55 S.21/44/2/256 T.19/24/1/254 T.1 S.0)
(08-TULANE -18 34-27 07-Tulane +6 41-34 (OT) 06-Smu -3 33-28...SR: Tulane 12-5)

*Texas Tech 40 - Baylor 13—TY’s game is at “Jerry’s World.” And
pointspread rising after TT’s easy victory over Oklahoma last week, while
Baylor has been swamped by a combined 61-3 in the first half (!) of its last two
games. Red Raider QB Taylor Potts had 388 YP vs. only one turnover last week
vs. OU, and Tech has covered 8 of last 10 vs. the Bears. It’s hard to trust Baylor
RS frosh QB Florence (6 TDs, 9 ints.) vs. Raider defense second only to Pitt in
sacks. (at Arlington, TX)
(08-TEX. TECH 35-Bay. 28...T.24-19 B.43/229 T.24/56 T.41/50/1/309 B.12/16/1/91 T.1 B.0)
(08-TECH -21' 35-28 07-Tech -20 38-7 06-TECH -17 55-21..SR: Texas Tech 34-32-1)

OKLAHOMA 31 - Oklahoma State 17—BEDLAM!!! However, it’s hard to
predict just how much of it OSU will be causing with star WR Dez Bryant
suspended, RB Wendell Hunter still not his normal speedy self, and sr. QB Zac
Robinson signaling in plays from the sidelines last week vs. Colorado while
nursing a sore shoulder. OU, of course, has its own lengthy injury list. RS frosh
QB Landry Jones often shows his youth, with only 5 TDs vs. 9 ints. on the road,
but 18 TDs vs. 4 ints. at home!
(08-Okla. 61-OKLA. ST. 41...U.27-25 S.39/198 U.38/187 U.30/44/0/370 S.17/26/1/254 U.0 S.1)
(08-Okla. -7' 61-41 07-OKLA. -13' 49-17 06-Okla. -5' 27-21...SR: Oklahoma 80-15-7)

FLORIDA 45 - Florida State 16—FSU hasn’t been this big an underdog since
Bobby Bowden’s 1st season in 1976 (26-pt. dog at Oklahoma). But still prefer to
“lay it” with title-seeking Florida squad that has easily covered 4 of past 5 in series.
‘Noles skillful but unrefined RS frosh QB Manuel (3 ints. vs. Maryland) likely to
implode vs. smothering, sack-crazed Gator defense (SEC-leading 33 sacks) that
has allowed only 8 TDs in 11 games. Contrarily, UF’s possible Heisman
repeater Tebow should have a field day in final home appearance vs.
permissive FSU defense that’s allowed 40+ pts. in 3 of last 6 games. TV-CBS
(08-Fla. 45-FLA. ST. 15...U.22-17 U.46/317 S.33/102 U.12/22/0/185 S.10/32/3/140 U.1 S.1)
(08-Fla. -16' 45-15 07-FLA. -14 45-12 06-Fla. -9 21-14...SR: Florida 32-19-2)

*GEORGIA TECH 31 - Georgia 28—With UGA circling the wagons following
34-27 come-from-ahead loss vs. Kentucky, inclined to take inflated number in
a southern rivalry where the road team is a sterling 9-1-1 vs. spread last 11.
GT’s smooth-functioning triple option piled up 409 yds. in 45-42 shootout LY.
But if Dawgs’ productive but mistake-prone QB Cox (291 YP vs. Ky., but 2
costly) avoids poor decisions, revenge-minded Georgia trades much of way vs.
penetrable Engineer “D” (24 ppg, 18 TDs, only 8 ints.) once again. TV-ABC
08-Ga. Tech 45-GA. 42...U.22-15 T.56/409 U.22/81 U.24/40/1/407 T.1/6/1/19 T.1 U.0)
(08-Tech +8 45-42 07-Georgia -3' 31-17 06-GEORGIA -2' 15-12...SR: Georgia 59-37-5)

BYU 24 - Utah 23—Revenge (especially for QB Max Hall, who tossed 5 picks
in BYU’s 48-24 loss at Salt Lake City a year ago) ought to at least ensure a
focused effort from Cougs, something Bronco Mendenhall hasn’t been able to
coax consistently from his troops the past five weeks. But only ravenous TCU
has been able to extend the margin on capable Utah, and frosh QB Wynn has
quickly matured into a competent game manager for Utes. Note dog is 9-3 vs.
line last 12 “Beehive Boot” battles.
(08-UTAH 48-Byu 24...U.27-25 B.30/214 U.35/108 U.31/37/0/307 B.21/41/5/205 U.0 B.1)
(08-UTAH -7 48-24 07-BYU -4' 17-10 06-Byu -3' 33-31...SR: Utah 50-30-4)

*HOUSTON 49 - Rice 28—Purring Cougar offense had 42 points & 443 yards
in the first half of last week’s home blowout of Memphis. Little doubt that UH &
stellar QB Keenum (4599 YP, 36 TDP vs. only 6 ints.) will be able to avenge
LY’s loss to city rival Rice, although Owls should move ball enough to stay
inside roomy impost.
(08-RICE 56-Hou. 42...R.30-27 R.38/198 H.27/140 H.30/54/1/494 R.30/43/0/393 R.0 H.1)
(08-RICE +3 56-42 07-HOU. -22' 56-48 06-Hou. -14' 31-30...SR: Houston 25-10)

Utah State 37 - IDAHO 31—Idaho has dropped 4 straight vs. spread after 7-
0 start, as the Vandal defense has yielded 50 ppg during downturn. Utah State
has provided good value this season (7-3 vs. number), and RB Robert Turbin
(108 ypg rushing) and QB Diondre Borel (conference leader in total offense)
capable of piling up some points.
(08-UTAH ST. 42-Idaho 17...U.26-18 U.45/356 I.31/84 U.14/23/1/224 I.23/39/1/187 U.1 I.1)
(08-USU -5 42-17 07-Usu +2' 24-19 06-Idaho -2' 41-21...SR: Utah St. 17-16-2)

WASHINGTON 41 - Washington State 7—Feckless Wazzu (which has yet
to hold a lead in regulation time TY!) at the mercy of foes, who have basically
been choosing how badly they want to beat the Cougs. Which is bad news for
Wazzu in Seattle, where angry U-Dub seeks to take out some frustrations and
is unlikely to pull back on the throttle after losing last two Apple Cups in galling
fashion. Huskies equipped to extend margin now that Jake Locker’s bruised
thigh has “bye” week to recuperate.
(08-WSU 16-Wash. 13 (OT)...U.20-15 U.58/224 S.37/171 S.17/30/1/167 U.11/16/1/99 S.0 U.0)
(08-WSU +7 16-13 (OT) 07-Wsu +6' 42-35 06-Wash. +8' 35-32...SR: Washington 64-31-6)

Arizona 24 - ARIZONA STATE 16—Potentially dicey psychological spot for
UA after back-to-back heartbreakers vs. Cal & Oregon have dashed dreams of
its first-ever Rose Bowl visit. But sight of old Territorial Cup rival ASU ought to
grab Cats’ attention, and note that road team has covered 13 of last 17 in series.
Definite offensive competence edge to Tucson bunch in expected battle of longhaired
QBs (prefer Cats’ Foles to Sun Devils’ pony-tailed third-stringer
Szakacsy, likely to make only his second start).
(08-ARIZ. 31-Ariz. St. 10...U.25-12 U.40/105 S.23/38 U.25/37/1/284 S.13/31/1/124 U.0 S.0)
(08-ARIZ. -11 31-10 07-ASU -7 20-17 06-Asu +3 28-14...SR: Arizona 45-36-1)

Boston College 26 - MARYLAND 24—Eagle QB Shinskie went on tilt last
week, committing 5 turnovers (including two that were returned for TDs) in
home loss to North Carolina. Even if BC is able to bounce back behind star RB
Harris (745 YR in last 5 games!), it’s likely to take all 60 minutes to dispatch
pesky Maryland, which can also move the rock on ground now that top RB Scott
(1133 YR in 2008) is back from injury. TV-ESPNU
(08-BOS. COL. 28-Mary. 21...M.21-20 B.41/175 M.26/M6 M.33/57/2/360 B.13/25/0/143 B.0 M.0)
(08-BC -6' 28-21 07-MARY. +6' 42-35 06-BC -7' 38-16...SR: Boston College 4-2)

SOUTH FLORIDA 28 - Miami-Florida 27—Although talented RS frosh USF
QB Daniels (304 YP, 141 YR in win over Louisville) is capable of wreaking
havoc on lesser foes, he has frequently self-destructed against better
defenses. Don’t believe depleted Hurricane stop unit qualifies as the latter, so
no big surprise if Bulls ride Daniels and raucous support of Tampa faithful to
small upset of Miami (just 8-16 last 24 as chalk) in Hurricanes’ first visit to USF.
TV-ABC (DNP...SR: Miami-Florida 1-0)

������*Arkansas 33 - LSU 24—With Arkansas’ super-smooth, strong-armed
QB Mallett (school-record 28 TDP TY; 313 YP & 5 TDP last week) executing like
an NFL star, take any available points vs. demoralized LSU squad not easily
recovering from last-second snafu in 25-23 loss at Ole Miss. Tigers’ jr. QB
Jefferson (sacked 6 times vs. Rebels) is hampered by nagging ankle injury, and
ground attack failed to crack century mark (sans top RB Scott) past 2 SEC
clashes. No surprise to see Hogs spring 3rd straight upset vs. Miles’ squad, a
woeful 1-12 vs. spread last 13 as SEC host. TV-ESPN
(08-ARK. 31-Lsu 30...A.23-18 L.44/161 A.31/118 A.25/40/1/280 L.9/21/0/143 A.0 L.0)
(08-ARK. +4' 31-30 at LR 07-Ark. +13 50-48 (OT) 06-Lsu -1' 31-26 at LR...SR: LSU 34-19-2)

*SAN JOSE STATE 24 - New Mexico St. 10—Although we might appear to
be begging for an appointment at the local psychiatrist’s office by
recommending 1-win San Jose bunch that’s dropped its last 7 vs. line, WAC
sources insist we’re not crazy. Spartans likely to dig deep for one last home
hurrah for retiring HC Tomey, and insiders believe change back to former
starting QB Reed gives SJSU chance to extend vs. no-dimensional NMSU
(whose “O” broke 20-Q TD-less streak in garbage time vs. Nevada).
(08-Sjs 31-N. MEX. ST. 14...N.17-11 S.37/151 N.29/35 N.28/45/3/249 S.8/18/3/50 S.0 N.1)
(08-Sjs -2 31-14 07-SJS -4 51-17 06-Sjs -6 31-21...SR: San Jose State 14-2)

������*STANFORD 42 - Notre Dame 24—“Charlie chatter” likely to dominate
pre-game discussions, with HC Weis expected to take the same route as Bob
Davie and Ty Willingham out of South Bend soon enough. While Domers
ponder their next pontiff (er, coach) and wait for the white smoke to waft above
campus sometime in December, not sure ND (no losses by more than 7) can
keep it close on the Farm, where Stanford has covered 11 of last 12 and will be
in ornery mood after blowing last week’s Big Game vs. Cal. Poor-tackling Irish “D”
in big trouble vs. rampaging Toby Gerhart (544 YR last 3). REGIONAL TV—ABC
(08-N. DAME 28-Stan. 21...20-20 S.37/161 N.27/83 N.29/40/0/347 S.18/28/3/182 N.0 S.1)
(08-UND -6' 28-21 07-Und +4' 21-14 06-UND -29' 31-10...SR: Notre Dame 17-6)

*UNLV 34 - San Diego State 26—Tricky dynamics to consider, with UNLV’s
notoriously fragile psyche rocked further by announcement of HC Sanford’s
pending dismissal. But if rested Rebs can rally around their departing coach,
they retain enough firepower (even minus injured WR star Wolfe) to outscore
fading SDSU bunch that MWC sources believe lacks depth and defensive
manpower to prevent late-season erosion (Aztecs have lost last 3 and failed to
cover last 4 TY).
(08-SDSU 42-Unlv 21...S.27-16 S.30/92 U.23/33 S.35/50/0/387 U.26/40/2/316 S.0 U.1)
(08-SDS +10' 42-21 07-Sds +3 38-30 06-SDS -9 21-7...SR: San Diego State 11-7)

*SOUTHERN CAL 26 - Ucla 19—Pac-10 insiders not convinced reeling SC
ready to deliver big bounce-back effort after Stanford debacle, citing schematic
flaws both offensively (first-year play-caller Bates not getting rave reviews) and
defensively (allowing 37 ppg last 4; worst defensive stretch in school history)
that have contributed to 1-8 spread mark since San Jose opener. UCLA “D” has
kept better Trojan attacks in check lately, and though PK Forbath (26 FGs!)
remains Bruins’ most-reliable weapon, Norm Chow’s offense showing enough
improvement with RS frosh QB Prince to stay within earshot.
(08-S. Cal 28-UCLA 7...S.33-7 S.47/209 U.21/47 S.18/33/1/269 U.12/29/1/110 S.1 U.0)
(08-Usc -32' 28-7 07-USC -19' 24-7 06-UCLA +12' 13-9...SR: Southern Cal 43-28-7)

*Navy 34 - HAWAII 18—Special trip for Navy HC Niumatalolo, a Hawaii
native and UH alum. But don’t expect him to take it easy on his alma mater if
host Warriors can’t deal with Mid option, which might be too much to ask from
Hawaii “D” that ranks a lowly 103rd vs. the rush and allows nearly 5 ypc. And
Warriors’ chances to trade points further minimized if Greg McMackin forced to
go deep into depth chart to find pilot for watered-down UH Red Gun (3rd-stringer
Austin forced into action last week in struggle at San Jose). (DNP...SR: Hawaii 1-0)

ADDED GAMES
FLORIDA ATLANTIC 44 - Western Kentucky 33—Winless WKU has shown
a bit more fight the last two games and should be ready for an all-out try for its
elusive first 2009 victory against 3-7 FAU. Hilltopper HC Dave Elson has already
been fired, but expect team to play hard in last two games for the coach who
recruited them to Western Kentucky and ushered them through the transition to
top level competition. Florida Atlantic getting serviceable play from jr. QB Jeff
Van Camp, but Owls’ 116th-ranked defense is a mess.
(08-Fla. Atl. 24-W. KY. 20...F.22-16 W.41/240 F.44/225 F.15/23/0/174 W.9/17/1/77 F.1 W.0)
(08-Florida Atlantic -2' 24-20...SR: Florida Atlantic 1-0)

*LA.-MONROE 28 - Middle Tennessee St. 27—MTSU’s prowess as chalk
(covered last 7) one of many formful Sun Belt trends, but remember most of that
damage has been in Murfreesboro. And last two meetings vs. ULM have gone
down to wire. Perhaps Dwight Dasher and the percolating Blue Raider spread
fire deciding scoring shots, but Warhawks properly balanced offensively now
that QB Revell has returned to team with underrated RB Goodin (1086 YR). ULM
in bowl mix (really!) with a win!
(08-MTS 24-La.-Mon. 21...L.24-21 L.43/236 M.35/90 M.16/26/0/278 L.19/31/1/212 M.1 L.0)
(08-MTS -4' 24-21 07-Mts -3' 43-40 06-Mts -3' 35-21...SR: Middle Tenn. St. 7-2)

ARKANSAS STATE 24 - North Texas 23—Don’t search for this one on the
ABC “family of networks.” North Texas has beaten only 1-10 Ball State & 0-10
Western Kentucky. ASU owns wins over only Mississippi Valley State & Florida
International. Both coaches on hot seat. But Red Wolves (2-7 vs. line TY, now
5-16 last 21 on board) situation could be more toxic.
(08-Ark. St. 33-N. TX. 28...A.21-20 A.45/188 N.31/110 N.28/42/3/217 A.12/22/0/205 A.1 N.0)
(08-Asu -20 33-28 07-ASU -15 31-27 06-ASU -10 29-10...SR: Arkansas State 10-8)

*Troy 38 - LA.-LAFAYETTE 17—Bowl-eligible 6-5 ULL no pushover. But
have no interest in bucking powerful, money-making Sun Belt champ Troy,
which is 20-6-2 vs. spread last 28 in Sun Belt (5-1-1 TY). Trojans prolific QB L.
Brown (43 ppg last 5 SB games) virtually unstoppable vs. talent-shy Belt
defenses, so envision Troy rolling to its 5th cover in past 6 meetings.
(08-TROY 48-La.-Laf. 3...T.26-12 T.55/391 L.35/183 L.7/15/2/72 T.9/20/0/68 T.1 L.0)
(08-TROY -10 48-3 07-Troy -9 48-31 06-TROY P 42-28...SR: La.-Lafayette 8-4)

TEAMS KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS

Saturday, November 28
Va Tech SERIES: 3-1 L4… 5-0 LRG… 2-6 favs vs conf rev
VIRGINIA 3-0 conf HD’s 8 > pts… 12-3 H w/ conf rev… 1-4 LHG
Clemson SERIES: 6-2 L8 / 3-1 A… 1-4 as non-conf favs 7 < pts
S CAROLINA 4-1 off SU loss but ATS win… 1-4 w/ non-conf rev
Minnesota 3-0 LRG… 5-1 A w/ conf rev… 2-7 A off 3+ HG’s
IOWA SERIES: 7-1 L8 home… 0-3 LHG… 1-6 as DD conf favs
Georgia SERIES: 3-1 L4… 5-0 L5 A… 4-0 off 3+ HG’s
GA TECH 0-4 aft Duke… 0-3 off SU win 35 > pts… 2-7 w/ rest
Utah 6-1 as conf dogs 6 > pts… 5-1 dogs vs conf rev
BYU 6-1 as conf favs < 10 pts… 1-4 in 2nd of BB HG’S
Arkansas SERIES: 3-1 L4 / 3-1 A… 6-1 dogs vs conf rev… 2-5 LRG
LSU 0-5 LHG… 1-12 conf HF’s 21 Notre Dame SERIES: 6-2 L8 / 4-1 A… 1-4 off SU win but ATS loss
STANFORD 4-0 in 2nd of BB HG’s… 3-1 LHG… 1-3 aft California
Ucla SERIES: 3-0 L3… 5-1 as DD conf dogs… 4-1 aft Ariz St
USC SERIES: 5-1 L6 H… 6-2 conf HF’s 15 < pts… 3-8 bef Arizona
KEY SELECTIONS
4★ BYU over Utah - The dog is 12-4 ATS and 10 of the L/12 have been decided by a TD or less.
In LY’s #16 vs #8 meeting QB Hall threw a career high 5 int’s incl 3 in the 4Q leading to 14 Utah pts.
In both ‘06 and ‘07 BYU needed key late 4th down conv to rally for close wins but LY Utah at home
rolled 48-24 (-7). Utah is 5-2 SU (4-3 ATS) in the “Holy War”. The Cougs are off a 38-21 win over AF,
delivering a 3★ LPS Winner. BYU fi nished with 26-18 FD and 498-300 yd edges in a game where
RB Unga became BYU’s all-time leading rusher and QB Hall broke Ty Detmer and John Beck records.
The inspired D held AF to just 212 yds rush (3.8) which was their lowest vs a non-service academy
TY. Utah showed no hangover from the TCU loss putting up 38 1H pts vs SDSt and coasting to a 38-7
win. The Utes fi nished with 22-16 FD and 391-262 yd edges. Since taking over as the starter, true
frosh Wynn is avg 237 ypg (55%) with a 4-2 ratio. This is a game circled on both teams calendars
annually but BYU is 12-8 (incl 1-0 vs Utah) as a HF S/’06 and gets revenge for LY’s beating.
FORECAST: BYU 37 Utah 20

3★ Arizona over ARIZONA ST - Arizona enters the “Territorial Cup” in a strange situation knowing
that they have a regular ssn game following ASU for the 1st time S/’86. Their Rose Bowl aspirations
offi cially ended LW, however, as they dropped a heartbreaker in 2OT vs Oregon, a game that they led
by 10 pts early 4Q. The Sun Devils’ bowl hopes ended altogether LW vs UCLA although their stellar
def did not allow an off TD (Bruins 2 TD returns on ASU TO’s, just 292 yds for the game). In LY’s meeting
in Tucson, ASU needed a win to become bowl eligible but ran into a buzzsaw being outgained
389-162 in the 30-10 defeat (+10’). The road team is 13-4 ATS (9-8 SU) but ASU is 5-2 SU (3-5 ATS)
in this instate rivalry and the HT is 5-1 SU. The last 2 games (‘05 and ‘07) in Tempe have both been
decided by only a FG and while it’s interesting to note that both ASU (+12 ypg) and AZ (+84 ypg) have
outgained P10 opponents despite the discrepancy in their conf records TY. The Cats have proven to
be as solid as it comes in the conf TY while ASU is experimenting with their QB’s right now starting
3 different at the position in the L/3W (QB Szakacsy had 5 ttl TO’s vs UCLA). Expect a big rebound
performance after last week’s loss. FORECAST: Arizona 24 ARIZONA ST 14

3★ Troy over LOUISIANA - A loaded Troy team playing an injury plagued ULL squad creates an
overwhelming situation for the Cajuns. Troy is going for a perfect 8-0 SBC mark after already clinching
the SBC’s automatic bowl berth. LW Troy continued its steam rolling of the SBC with a 47-21 win at
FAU. TU QB Levi Brown is avg 359 ypg (68%) with a 15-1 ratio in SBC play and shredded FAU for
477 yds. ULL’s comeback win LW over rival ULM was its sixth TY, creating an opportunity to play for
an at-large bowl berth. ULL has had a challenge in replacing Sails (inj) at RB, and has been outscored
79-30 in the 2H in its L/5 games. ULL did get TE Green back LW, but with a limited run game
its one-dimensional offense is facing a huge challenge against the league’s top pressure defense.
This contest may be labeled by some as just a warm up for Troy’s bowl game but the Trojans, under
19th year HC Blakeney, are too smart to fall into that trap. It’s business as usual for the Trojans and a
comfortable win. FORECAST: Troy 37 LOUISIANA 20

OTHER SELECTIONS
2★ † Texas Tech over Baylor (Arlington) - BU HG played at Cowboy Stadium. TT has won 13 in a
row SU (8-2 ATS) with their avg win by 28 ppg. The Bears were outgained by 231 yds LW vs A&M ending
their bowl hopes. QB Florence is avg 198 ypg (62%) with a 6-9 ratio. TT handed OU its worst loss of the
ssn LW (239 yd edge) as Leach is now the winningest HC in TT history. QB Potts is avg 280 ypg (66%)
with an 18-11 ratio and played every snap LW most likely ending the Red Raiders QB carousel. TT is
ranked #28 in our pass eff def allowing 223 ypg (61%) with a 10-7 ratio while BU comes in at #53 (223
ypg, 62%, 14-9). BU runs the same style of off as TT but the Red Raiders do it better (470 ypg to 343
ypg) and TT has the def edge (#24-36). BU is not going bowling for a 15th straight yr and TT is coming off
its best performance under Leach and LY’s late season collapse ensures they keep focused in this one.
FORECAST: Texas Tech 45 Baylor 17

2★ † Kansas (+) over Missouri (Kansas City) - Third straight at Arrowhead. The winner in the Border
Showdown has won by DD’s in 12 of their L/16 meetings. Dog is 10-4 ATS. KU lost its 6th gm in a
row LW after a 5-0 (ranked #17) start. The Jayhawks have also dropped 8 straight ATS. QB Reesing
is avg 283 ypg (63%) with an 18-9 ratio but over the L5W just 228 ypg (57%) 3-5. Mizzou beat ISU LW
(203 yd edge) securing a bowl invite. QB Gabbert is avg 273 ypg (60%) with a 22-7 ratio. KU is ranked
#47 in our pass eff def allowing 240 ypg (62%) with a 16-7 ratio while Mizzou comes in at #86 (240
ypg, 64%, 15-7). KU is just 7-21 SU and 5-23 ATS in Nov road/neutral gms and Mizzou is 4-1 SU/ATS
away from Columbia TY. KU does have some off-fi eld distractions but needs a win to become bowl
eligible and while we’ve played against KU many times as a Key Selection, the value and situation is
now clearly with them. FORECAST: Kansas (+) 28 Missouri 27


Sat, Nov 28th - Virginia Tech 23 VIRGINIA 13 - Groh is 14-11 SU (0-3 TY) and 16-7
ATS (1-2 TY) as a home dog. VT is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in the series but the HT is
5-2 ATS. Last year VT allowed only 249 yds but needed an int in the EZ with 2:15 left
to secure the win. VA had the dazzling debut of CB Vic Hall at QB. Hall ran for 109
yards and 2 long TD’s as a surprise starter. VT has won in their last two trips here
(both as AF) by an avg of 42-17. UVA is ranked #118 in the NCAA in total off and are
being outscored 25-16 vs ACC foes and now face our #12 defense. QB Sewell is avg
173 ypg pass (54%) with a 7-7 ratio. VT is 9-2 as an ACC AF. QB Taylor is avg 174
ypg pass (56%) with a 13-3 ratio and has rushed for 310 yds (3.3). RB Williams is #1
in the ACC with 1,355 rush yds (5.6). With a win here and in their bowl game, VT will
have its 6th straight 10-win season while UVA HC Groh could be coaching in his last
game as the Cavs will likely fi nish the season 3-9.

CONNECTICUT 34 Syracuse 17 - The HT is 4-1 SU/ATS and the fav is 5-0 ATS.
Edsall played and coached at Syr from ‘76-‘90. UC won on the road LY 39-14 with a
329-147 yd edge. UC has won their two HG’s by an avg of 28-7 in the series. Marrone
is off his 1st BE win, a 31-13 upset of Rutgers. QB’s Nassib and Paulus combined 17-
22 for 211 yds as Syr rolled up 424 yds offense. LB Hogue (LY RB) tallied a school rec
7 tfl as the D held RU to 130 yds and totaled 9 sks. RB Carter was inj late (CS). Conn
is off a thrilling 33-30 2OT upset over Notre Dame. Dixon and Todman again rushed
for over 100 yds (3rd time) and Todman had a KR TD. Conn had opportunities to put it
away before the end of reg but settled for fi eld position with :42 and 2 TO, and missed
a 37 yd FG. Afterward Edsall dedicated the game to the late Jasper Howard and his
family. UC has the off edge (#47-94) and likes to grind it out behind their big physical
OL (174 rush ypg, 4.3) and now faces Syr #47 def all’g 92 ypg (2.8) rush. With little to
no depth it is unknown how Syr will respond with a hangover after their big win. Conn
(8-1-1 ATS TY) is in perfect position to gain bowl eligibility here at home.

DUKE 27 Wake Forest 23 - In their last visit here, WF led by 25 but Duke rallied back
and WF barely pulled out the 41-36 win. LY in a hard fought ACC battle that went back
and forth the entire gm, WF needed a 28 yd FG in OT to pull out the 33-30 win (Duke
miss 42 yd FG on fi nal pl reg). WF is 9-0 SU (but only 3-6 ATS) in this series and has
scored 41+ in all 4 wins in Durham. WF is off a bye while Duke is playing a 6th str wk.
WF is 0-5 as a conf AF L/3Y. WF is being outgained 395-318 ypg on the road TY. QB
Skinner is 3-0 vs Duke. On the yr, he avg 254 ypg (65%) with a 21-12 ratio. WF has the
edge on both sides of the ball (O#58-81, D#56-75). QB Lewis, who is a fi nalist for the
Unitas Awd, avg 268 ypg (61%) with a 17-7 ratio. While WF is coming off a bye they
have lost 5 str and are 4-7 on the yr and for the 1st time in 4 yrs they will not be going to
a bowl. This will be Duke’s home fi nale for 9 Sr incl QB Lewis who needs just 172 yds
to pass FSU’s Weinke for #2 all-time in ACC history and 322 to reach 10,000 yds. The
Blue Devils do have a shot at their 1st .500 season in 15 yrs with a win here.

SOUTH CAROLINA 21 Clemson 20 - In LY’s meeting, RB James Davis ran for 3
TD’s and CU defeated SC 31-14 giving the Tigers’ their 6th win in the L/7 vs its state
rival and Swinney was named the HC 2 days later. Clemson is 6-2 ATS and 10-2 SU
vs SC. LY SC QB Smelley went the whole gm and hit 22-47 for 212 but threw 4 int
which led to 3 TD’s for Clemson. SC has won just once (‘01) hosting Clemson S/‘89.
SC is 6-5 and bowl elig but have lost 4 of their L/5 SU. QB Garcia is avg 237 ypg pass
(57%) with a 14-8 ratio. SC rush offense has struggled TY and they are #97 in the
NCAA. Both tms have top 20 D’s (C #9-17) but CU has the offensive edge (#28-59)
and huge ST edge (#12-100). QB Parker is avg 189 ypg pass (56%) with an 18-9
ratio. Heisman candidate RB Spiller is avg 188 all-purp ypg (#3 NCAA). SC is coming
off a bye with nothing on deck and looking to move up in the bowl pecking order so
they don’t get stuck in the Indep Bowl while CU clinched the Atlantic Division Title
and has the ACC Champ game vs GT on deck.

NC STATE 24 N Carolina 23 - The underdog is 9-2 ATS with EIGHT OUTRIGHT
upsets in the series. These two are just 26 miles apart and the visitor is 6-3 ATS.
Wolfpack are 9-4 SU in home fi nales. NC has now lost B2B games in the series including
LY as #25 NC (7-4) was beaten soundly, committing 6 TO’s as NCSt defeated
the Tar Heels 41-10 with a 263 yd edge. QB Wilson is considering pursuing a pro
baseball career, which would likely make this his last game. On the season, he is avg
252 ypg pass (58%) with a 27-11 ratio. NCSt does have the offensive edge (#36-88),
but now faces our #8 D which has forced 10 TO’s and scored 4 TD’s the L/2. LW NC
D’s forced 6 TO which led to 24 Tar Heel pts. QB Yate is avg 152 ypg (60%) with a 10-
13 ratio. A 9-win ssn would be NC’s most S/’97 when the tm went 11-1 under Mack
Brown. NC is looking to move up for the league’s upper-tier bowls while NCSt would
love to spoil their rivals season on what could be Wilson’s fi nal game.

Tennessee 24 KENTUCKY 20 - Tenn has won 24 in a row in the nation’s longest series
win streak and UT has won 26 straight regular season fi nales (on 6-2 ATS run). LY
UT had a 311-193 yd edge including a 210-96 yd rush edge and won 28-10 in Fulmer’s
fi nal game and a 4★ Top Weekly Late Phone Winner for us. The last time in Lexington
(‘07), UK lost 52-50 in 4 OT’s despite outgaining the Vols 564-520 with a 37-24 FD
edge. UK is 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in their fi nal home gm. UK is off a 31-24 upset of GA
in Athens. UK was outgained 487-260 but had a 4-0 TO advantage which led to 2 TD’s
in the 2H on 14 and 8 yd TD drives. Tenn clinched a bowl LW with their 31-16 win over
Vandy with the Vols holding a 422-297 yd edge, but UT DE Brown scored on an IR TD
with :03 left to make it a slightly misleading fi nal. UT RB Hardesty had 171 rush LW with
1,127 (5.0) on the ssn. QB Crompton is avg 241 ypg (62%) with a 16-3 ratio the L/6. UT
has edges on off (#27-50) and def (#23-46), but the Vols D has been banged up with
walk-ons forced to play 2nd string at several positions. Despite UK’s recent resurgence,
we will go with the Vols to get the win and improve their bowl standing.

Mississippi 31 MISS ST 17 - The home tm has won 5 in a row SU in the Egg Bowl,
and LY Ole Miss dominated as their D allowed the fewest yds in a 1A gm in ‘08 with a
461-24 yd edge (yes, 24 yds). UM is 7-2-1 ATS in the series and set a school record
with 11 sks LY holding MSU to -64 yds rush in LY’s 45-0 shutout (-18) and MSU
HC Croom resigned after the gm. Nutt is 10-1 SU vs Miss St with his only loss by
1 pt in ‘98. UM RB/WR McCluster has 903 rush yds (6.9) with 739 rush yds (7.9) in
the L/4 SEC gms. LW he threw a 27 yd TD pass out of the Wild Rebel pkg and had
148 rush yds in UM’s nail-biting 25-23 win over LSU. UM outgained LSU 426-290
holding LSU to 40 rush yds (1.5) but was lucky to escape with a win due to LSU
mismanaging the clock. MSU was eliminated from bowl contention in their 42-21
loss to Ark LW. MSU RB Dixon (1258, 5.5) rushed for 176 yds and 2 TD but lost a
rare fmbl at midfi eld in the 4Q which Ark turned into the gm sealing TD. UM’s D has
30 sks TY which puts pressure on MSU’s inconsistent QB Lee (127 ypg, 60%, with
a 4-13 ratio). MSU’s D has only 17 sks on the yr which means UM QB Snead (199
ypg, 54%, 17-14 ratio) should have time to throw and a solid win vs their rival should
secure a trip to the Capital One Bowl.

TCU 58 New Mexico 3 - The home team is 6-3-1 ATS. In the L/2Y vs TCU, QB
Porterie has been KO’d and TCU has won by a 63-3 margin with an avg yd edge of
356-152. In 4 MWC meetings, TCU has dominated winning by an avg of 35-13. After
opening last ssn vs NM (earliest conf opener ever), TCU and NM signed a contract
to play each other in season fi nales. The Frogs were slow out of the gate vs WY
LW. They all’d the Pokes to hang around until the 2Q before scoring 35 unanswered
points in a 45-10 win. TCU fi nished with a 523-178 yd edge but did have 4 TO’s. RB
Turner (688 yds, 5.3) was banged up early and Tucker (605, 6.5) fi nished with a career
high 134 on the ground. NM comes in fl ying high off their 1st win of the season.
After knocking 2 FG’s and a PAT off the upright 2W ago, Aho nailed 2 4Q FG’s incl the
game-winning 27 yd’r with :12 left. NM almost tripled their rush avg putting up 270
(7.7) incl 130 in the 4Q and fi nished with a 467-370 ttl yd edge. TCU is 18-6 as a HF
(1 ATS loss to IAA) and has won their L/4 home fi nales by an avg of 45-15. The Frogs
are playing for the outright MWC Title and a BCS berth and while NM has fi nally
found its confi dence, they will be quickly struck down by the high fl ying Frogs.

E CAROLINA 28 Southern Miss 27 - The winner will represent the East in the
CUSA Title game. SM is 11-2 SU and has won 7 in a row SU here in Greenville. In
LY’s 21-3 loss, EC was held to a season low 255 yds and their 3 pts were the fewest
scored under Holtz and fewest since ‘97. SMiss QB Davis and WR Brown hooked up
for a school-record 97 yd TD pass. The Eagles have won 4 of 5 SU (4-1 ATS) after
LW’s 44-34 win over Tulsa in their FHG. They have, however, won just once on the
road TY, although it did come 2 wks ago at Marshall. QB Young has played well in
place of inj’d starter Davis and is avg 219 ypg (62.3%) with a 12-1 ratio in his 6 sts.
The Eagles D has played better the L/2 weeks after allowing a season-high 750 yds
(559 pass) a few wks ago at Houston. EC has also won 4 of 5 SU (4-0-1 ATS), with
the only loss to VT. EC beat UAB 37-21 LW despite being outgained 520-325 as they
won the TO battle 2-0. The Pirates’ offense has really come on and is avg 42 ppg and
450 ypg their L/4 in conf play. The fav is 13-3 ATS when SMiss is on the road in CUSA
play. We think the teams are pretty even, but we give the Pirates the edge at home.

UAB 24 Ucf 23 - UCF is 5-1 all-time vs the Blazers and 3-1 in CUSA play. LY UCF
was shutout for the 1st time ever in CUSA play and for the 1st time at Bright House
in a 15-0 loss to UAB. It was UAB’s 1st shutout in CUSA play (10 ssns). This is just
the 2nd time in 13 yrs that UAB closes their season at home (1st S/’98). The Blazers
need a win to become bowl eligible and clinch their 1st non-losing season since 2004.
QB Webb is quietly having an outstanding Sr campaign and is, arguably, the MVP in
CUSA. He is #8 in NCAA in total off (297 ypg), the #1 rushing QB in NCAA (117 ypg,
6.2) and after a slow start has climbed to #12 in pass eff (149.8). Webb will have to be
at his best against the best front 7 in CUSA. The Knights allowed just 50 total yards
in LW’s 49-0 win over Tulane and are T-#1 in CUSA with 34 sks. UCF is looking to
improve their bowl position by getting to 8 wins. The offense is much improved under
Sr signal-caller Hodges. The Knights are avg 39 ppg and 441 ypg in their L/4 conf gms
but UAB needs a 6th win to have a shot at their fi rst bowl since ‘04.

UTEP 28 Marshall 27 - UTEP is just 4-15-1 SU in Sun Bowl fi nales. The HT is 2-0
in this brief series winning by an avg of 40-12. Marshall is off a 34-31 win over SMU.
The Herd was without leading receiver TE Slate (OFY-knee) and leading rusher
Darius Marshall (#13 in NCAA, 117 ypg), who may return here (check status). MU’s
defense has been outstanding since allowing 52 pts to VTech in week 2. They are allowing
just 19 ppg since that game and have held the L/3 opponents to 89 ypg on the
ground. They have been solid on the road TY (2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS), but have traditionally
struggled away from home, as they entered this season 3-21 SU (6-17-1 ATS) on
the road under HC Snyder. Prevailing sentiment has Snyder out as coach, even if
the Herd goes bowling. LW, UTEP announced that HC Price would return for 2010,
despite 4 straight losing seasons. The Miners main objective to fi nish the season is
to get RB Buckram the NCAA rushing title. He is currently #2 avg 142 ypg (6.3) after
rushing for 147 yds (4.3) in LW’s 30-29 loss at Rice, in which the Miners had 6 TO’s
(5 fmbls). The Herd is 0-5 all-time in the state of Texas and now must make the long
trip to El Paso (over 1,600 miles), so we expect UTEP to come out ahead.

SMU 44 Tulane 20 - TU has won 7 of 8 vs the Mustangs and 5 straight in Dallas. LY
the Wave led 31-7 at HT, but SMU got within a score with 2:03 left, but they kicked deep
and TU was able to run out the clock 34-27 (-18’). Tulane has outgained SMU by 111
ypg in the L/7. Tulane is headed to their 3rd straight losing season under HC Toledo and
7th straight overall. This is the 3rd straight road game for the Wave and they are just
1-5 SU/ATS on the road. They were held to just 50 total yds LW in a 49-0 loss at UCF.
Although Tulane has struggled, you can’t overlook the season that WR Jeremy Williams
has put together. Williams leads TU with 79 rec (13.2) (#11 in NCAA) and is also the #2
rusher (160, 4.3) behind Sr Andre Anderson (911, 4.3). TU may have found its QB of
the future in Ryan Griffi n (PS#45). The rFr is avg 185 ypg (64%) with a 6-5 ratio in his 5
starts. The D has again been ravaged by inj’s and is all’g 41 ppg the L/6. SMU appears
headed to their 1st bowl since 1984, although they fell out of the CUSA West lead with
a 34-31 loss at Marshall LW as they were outgained 475-331. The Mustangs are 4-1 at
home TY, but just 2-2 ATS and have failed to cover in the L/2 at home. Tulane looked like
a team that may have packed it in LW, and even though SMU failed to cover as a DD
home fav 3 wks ago vs Rice (won 31-28, -17’), the Mustangs roll into the postseason.

OKLAHOMA 31 Oklahoma St 17 - Bedlam. Gundy was 0-4 vs OU as OSU’s starting
QB from 1986-‘89 (0-8 SU combined as QB/HC, 0-3-1 ATS as HC). LY OU was -7’ on the
road and needed an impressive win to get votes and into the B12 Title gm. Behind #3 QB
Weeden OSU came back from 11 pts down (2H) vs CU keeping a BCS bowl shot alive. QB
Robinson (192 ypg, 64%, 15-7 ratio and 302 rush yds 3.2) was held out (concussion) LW
but was dressed and most likely will play here. OU was embarrassed LW vs TT (outgained
549-310) playing its worst gm of the ssn. OU’s 5 losses are the most since Stoops’ 1st
ssn in ‘99 and he is 14-7 ATS after a SU loss. QB Jones is avg 232 ypg (58%) with a
23-13 ratio. OU is ranked #5 in our pass eff def allowing 198 ypg (55%) with an 11-15
ratio while OSU comes in #13 (244 ypg, 57%, 16-14). OU has won 29 straight (19-9-1
ATS) HG’s, are outgaining foes on avg 555-234 with a avg score 55-9 in Norman TY and
Stoops will have his squad focused vs its rival after LW’s wakeup call.

TECHNICIAN'S CORNER..

COLLEGE RIVALRY WEEK II

VIRGINIA TECH at VIRGINIA...Beamer has won last 5 meetings
and covered 4 of those until LY’s close call. Beamer has won and
covered handily his last 2 at Charlottesville. Beamer 26-11 vs. line
on road since ‘04. Tech edge-Beamer, based on team trends.

SYRACUSE at UCONN...UConn has won and covered last two in
series by big margins. Huskies 8-1 vs. line TY and 9-1 last 10 on board
since late LY. Tech edge-UConn, based on team trends.

WAKE FOREST at DUKE...Duke tough, covering last 3 meetings,
though Devils haven’t won in series since ‘99. Wake 1-6 vs. line last 7
as visitor. Tech edge-Vandy, based on series and team trends.

CLEMSON at SOUTH CAROLINA...Ugh! Palmetto State
showdown. Tigers have covered 6 of last 8 meetings (although
Spurrier 2-1 last 3). Dabo 10-2 vs. Line last 12 reg.-season games.
Dabo also 4-1 vs. line last 5 as visitor. Spurrier 2-0 as home dog TY.
Tech edge-slight to Dabo, based on team and series trends.

NORTH CAROLINA at NC STATE...Revenge for Butch after
getting whipped 41-10 at home LY. Wolfpack only 2-3 vs. line as
host TY and just 3-6 vs. number overall. UNC has covered last 4
TY. Tech edge-UNC, based on team trends.

MISSOURI vs. KANSAS (at Kansas City)...Dog team has
covered 5 of last 6 in this border series. But KU hitting skids with 8
straight losses vs. number TY. Tigers 4-1 vs. line away from home
TY. Tech edge-Mizzou, based on KU negatives.

TENNESSEE at KENTUCKY...Barrel! Cats haven’t won it since
1984! Vols have covered last 3 at Lexington as well. UK just 1-4
vs. line at home TY, 3-11 vs. line last1 4 at home. Tech edgeslight
to UT, based on team and series trends.

OLE MISS at MISSISIPPI STATE...Egg Bowl! Last three and five
of last six “under” in series. Houston Nutt 10-3 last 13 on board (5-
3 TY). Rebs 5-1-1 vs. line last 7 Egg Bowls. Tech edge-slight to
Ole Miss, based on series trends.

NEW MEXICO at TCU...Frogs have covered last 5 at home and
destroyed Rocky Long’s Lobos, winning and covering last 4 years.
TCU 10-1 vs. line last 11 as host, and has covered last 9 vs. MWC
at Fort Worth. Tech edge-TCU, based on team trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at EAST CAROLINA...USM has won and
covered last 2 and 7 of last 8 in series. Skip only 7-14 vs. line last
21 on board. Eagles 7-0 SU, 6-0-1 vs. line last 7 at Greenville,
where they haven’t lost since ‘94! Tech edge-USM, based on
series trends.

UCF at UAB...UAB has covered the last 2 years in series.
Blazers also 6-2 vs. line last 8 at Legion Field. O’Leary 12-5 vs. line last
17 on board. Tech edge-slight to UAB, based on series trends.

MARSHALL at UTEP...If UTEP favored note that 3-21 spread
mark last 24 as chalk! Tech edge-Marshall, especially if dog,
based on team trends.

TULANE at SMU...ote that road team has covered the last four
meetings. Bob Toledo 2-11 vs. line last 13 on board, however. June
Jones 0-3 as chalk TY as underdog team is 9-1 in Mustang games!
Tech edge-slight to SMU, based on Tulane negatives.

BAYLOR vs. TEXAS TECH (at Jerry Jones Cowboys
Stadium, Arlington, Tx)...Tech has mostly dominated the last
decade, winning last 10 and covering 8 of those, although Baylor did
cover in ‘08. Tech edge-slight to TT, based on series trends.

OKLAHOMA STATE at OKLAHOMA...Bedlam! Big revenge for
OSU after getting clocked 61-41 LY. But Sooners have been
clocking OSU regularly the past few years, winning last 6, covering
last 4 and 5 of those 6. Stoops 17-7 last 24 as host. Gundy 2-0-1
vs. line away from home TY but 0-1 as dog and just 8-10 as dog
since ‘06. Tech edge-slight to OU, based on series trends.

FLORIDA STATE at FLORIDA...Gators have covered last 2 and
3 of last 4 as host in series, having won last 5 in a row SU. Bowden
3-1 as dog TY and 14-7 last 21 in role, also 7-4-1 vs. line last 12
away. Tech edge-slight to UF, based on series trends.

GEORGIA at GEORGIA TECH...Road team 5-0-1 last 6, 9-1-1 vs.
line last 11 in series! But Paul Johnson 15-6 vs. line at GT, 6-3 as
home chalk. Tech edge-slight to GT, based on team trends.

UTAH at BYU...Beehive Boot! Underdog team has covered 9 of
last 12 meetings, but chalk has covered last 2. Tech edge-slight
to Utah, based on extended series trends.

RICE at HOUSTON...Bayou Bucket! Owls have won last 3
meetings, all as dog, and have covered 4 of last 5 in series. Rice
has covered last 3 outings TY after slow start. Cougs have
covered first 4 on board as host TY as well as 6 of last 7 on board
at home. Tech edge-slight to Rice, based on series trends.

UTAH STATE at IDAHO...Vandals no covers last 4 TY after
opening with 7 covers. Utags have won and covered last 2 years
vs.. Akey and are 3-0 as road dog TY and 11-3-1 last 15 on board
since mid '08. Tech edge-slight to USU, absed on team and
recent series trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at WASHINGTON...Dog team has
covered last 8 Apple Cups! Huskies 0-1 as chalk TY, no covers last
8 in role at Husky Stadium! Tech edge-slight to WSU, based on
series and team trends.

ARIZONA at ARIZONA STATE...Territorial Cup! Road team 13-
4 vs. line last 17 in series. Cats have covered last 2 at Tempe.
Tech edge-UA, based on extended series trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at MARYLAND...BC 1-3 vs. line away TY
(0-1 as road chalk) and 1-5 last 6 away from home. Eagles 2-11
as road chalk since ‘06. Tech edge-slight to UM, based on
team trends.

MIAMI-FLORIDA at SOUTH FLORIDA...Canes only 2-3 vs. line
away TY and just 1-3 as road chalk. Miami 3-5 as chalk overall TY,
now 10-21 in role since ‘06 (8-16 now for Shannon in role). Bulls
11-6 vs. line as host since ‘06 and 4-1 as home dog that span. Tech
edge-USF, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS at LSU...Tigers have failed to cover last 2 at home
vs. Hogs and are 1-3 vs. line last 4 meetings. Tigers 1-12 vs.
number last 13 as SEC host. Hogs 6-2 vs. line last 8 TY. Tech
edge-Arkansas, based on recent series and team trends.

NEW MEXICO STATE at SAN JOSE STATE...Tomey swansong.
SJSU has dominated lately, winning and covering last 4 meetings.
Tomey still 13-7-1 vs. line last 21 as host despite miserable ‘09.
Tech edge-SJSU, based on series trends.

NOTRE DAME at STANFORD...Tree has covered 11 of last 12 on
Farm for Harbaugh! Dog team, however, has covered in nine
straight ND games this season (Irish 2-0 as dog, but 2-8 last 10 on
board, too!). Tech edge-Stanford, based on team trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at UNLV...Sanford swansong. UNLV 2-10
as chalk since ‘05. Aztecs have also covered 6 of last 7 meetings.
Tech edge-slight to SDSU, based on team and series trends.

UCLA at SOUTHERN CAL...Bruins have covered last 3 and 4 of
last 5, all as substantial dog, in fight for Victory Bell. SC 1-8 vs. line
last 9 TY (all as chalk), no covers last 3 at home. Tech edge-
UCLA, based on team and recent series trends.

NAVY at HAWAII...Navy 27-15 vs. line away since ‘04, 12-5 as
road chalk that span. Leahey just 1-3 at home TY. Tech edge-
Navy, based on team trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...Elson
swansong. FAU only 1-3 vs. line as host TY and 0-3 as chalk. Tops
have covered last 2 TY. Tech edge-slight to WKU, based on
recent trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE at UL-MONROE...Road team 3-0-1 vs. line
last 4 meetings. MTSU 6-0 as chalk TY. Tech edge-slight to
MTSU, based on recent trends.

NORTH TEXAS at ARKANSAS STATE...ASU 2-7 vs. line TY and
now 5-16 last 21 on board. UNT has covered last 2 meetings. Tech
edge-slight to UNT, based on recent trends.

TROY at UL-LAFAYETTE...Troy has won last 5 and covered last
4 meetings. Tech edge-Troy, based on team trends.
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- NAIL OF THE DAY SAT 11/28- In the Black Saturday
The Raven Guru
Reputation:98
Level:Superstar
Since:Mar 28, 2008
November 27, 2009 10:09 pm
Score: 105

Here is my 6 pack for Saturday, 4-2 the last 2 Saturdays and 29-31 overall for the season in CFB:

TOP PLAY OF THE DAY (NAIL)  STANFORD-10......Can Charlie Weiss possibly come off more smug then he has in recent interviews?  He is almost daring Notre Dame to fire him, and the attitude amongst the team can't be all that good.  They have underachieved tremendously and since the media wants to assign the blame on Weiss it is human nature for the kids to think there could be some validity to that and even rationalize their poor performance by blaming the coach when they are just as much to blame.  This games outcome will be a perfect example of how stacked the Pac 10 is this year, and with Stanford holding more then their own in conference and Notre Dame losing 3 in a row to Connecticut, Pittsburgh and Navy the writing is on the wall and it says blowout.  Granted Notre Dame kept it close in all three losses, however 2 of the 3 were at home and the Irish were favored.  Today they go on the road for Charlie Weiss's last game as the head coach and they face a team in Stanford who is playing better then any of the 3 teams they have lost to recently.  Stanford comes off a loss at home to Cal and should be pumped up to show off on national TV.  The Pac-10 teams rarely get national televised games and thus many on the East Coast are not nearly as familiar with them as of course those on the West Coast who see Pac-10 games every Saturday.  Take Stanford and lay the 10 points, and I'll call it;  STA 38 ND 20

SOUTH CAROLINA+3.5......I've done well with this team all year long and this game is another that features a very strong conference playing a less then strong conference.  South Carolina has lost 3 games in a row and thus are a home dog in this match up.  However two of those losses were on the road with the sole home loss to Florida and in a close 24-14 game.  South Carolina is 5-1 at home and score 4 points more per game on offense and give up 4 points less on defense in all home games.  Another factor has to be the fact Clemson beat South Carolina 31-14 last year in Death Valley, Steve Spurrier can rally the troops with the best of them and will have his team sky high for revenge Saturday.  Clemson is led by all-american CJ Spiller who will be playing on Sunday's soon, but his best asset which is speed is offset by the fact South Carolina has one of the fastest defenses in the SEC.  Look for them to keep Spiller from having a monster game and also look for the Spurrier led Gamecocks to beat Clemson outright.  SC 24 CLE 20

GEORGIA TECH-7.5......Although this game features the same two conferences matching up as the previous pick on SC, the circumstances are very different.  Georgia Tech and Georgia are two teams headed in opposite directions.  Tech has played superb all year and sit at 10-1 going into this rivalry game. The Bulldogs have gone 3-4 down the stretch and for the season are 2-3 on the road beating both Vandy and Arkansas but losing to Oklahoma St, Tennessee on the road and Florida on a neutral field.  They catch Georgia Tech when they are playing as well as they have all season long winning their last three games by 22 points per game.  The Yellow Jackets are also an unbeaten 5-0 at home and I can't see them losing this game, in fact I see them winning it with ease.  Take Georgia Tech and lay the 7.5 points.  GT 34 GEO 21

SOUTH FLORIDA+7.......You have to like the way South Florida has played this year both on defense and especially the quarterback play of BJ Daniels.  They stand at 4-1 at home and score an impressive 8 points more per game at home while giving up 3 points less per game.  Miami has not played well in either of their last 2 road games losing to UNC by 9 and beating Wake Forest by just 1.  They may easily underestimate how important this game really is, with the game holding tremendous recruiting implications in the state of Florida.  The South Florida defense should keep Miami in check and if Daniels has a good game this is another dog I think will win the game outright.  Take South Florida and grab the 7 points.  SF 27 MIA 24

MARYLAND+6......The Terps played their best game by far last week in a loss at Florida State.  They came back several times in the game to re-take the lead before finally losing by 3.  They return to College Park to face off with Boston College who is a weak road team sitting at 1-3 on the road and scoring just 13 points per game in those road outings.  Maryland is no prize at home but the Terps who are coached by Ralph Friedgen have no quit in them and will play all out at home to try to salvage a disappointing season.  While BC will have a chance to go bowling this game represents Maryland's bowl game a point I am sure will be drilled into the kids heads all week.  Look for another outright dog to win the game here, take Maryland +6.  MD 23 BC 20

DUKE+5......Another home dog with strong outright win possibilities.  Wrong team is favored here with Wake Forest 0-4 on the road losing by 11 points per game.  Duke is only 2-3 at home but have played well against some of the better teams in the ACC.  The main reason to like this Duke squad is their recent history with Wake Forest.  The last two seasons which were both years Wake Forest has played in a bowl game the Blue Devils have given the Demon Deacons all they could handle losing two years ago 41-36 at home and last year losing 33-30 at Wake Forest.  This year Wake is 4-7 and not going bowling, while Duke has played very well this year compared to the previous two and are 5-6 and could pull out a .500 season with a win.  Look for the home team to be up for this game and give the Deacons loss number 8.  DUKE 27 WF 23
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- NAIL OF THE DAY SAT 11/28- In the Black Saturday
Balls1
Reputation:98
Level:Superstar
Since:Jan 30, 2007
November 27, 2009 11:38 pm
Score: 112

Already stated my reasoning behind these two games on Fri's, thread. G.TECH-7.5 against Geo. Guru made alot of good points, I'll just add this: GEO. defense has been putrid all year, the yellow jackets run the ball as well as anybody. I see G.T. easily amassing 350 on the ground, which will make for a long day on the field for the Bulldogs. If Tech. is not already covering this spread by the 4th quarter, than the last quarter they will be completely gassed, and then it will get really ugly. 38-21, Tech. Fla. and Tim Tebow have got to be salivating, knowing the defense that there up against in the Noles. TEBOW will be good for 5-6 td's himself (pad those heisman stats) blowout here for Fla. 59-17, would not be scared to through the over in at this one also. GL. TO you all. Will not be around at all tomorrow, hope the board continues it's great run, se you all Sun.
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- NAIL OF THE DAY SAT 11/28- In the Black Saturday
timmah2483
Reputation:96
Level:Superstar
Since:Jan 27, 2008
November 28, 2009 7:15 am
Score: 31

NCAA Basketball

Wisc. Milw. -1

Rhode Island -1

Providence -3

Tulsa -5

Louisville - 3.5

NCAA Football

Arizona - 4

UNC -6.5

Mid. Tenn. St. - 4

USF -ML (+235)

Oklahoma State - ML (+265)
---------------------------------

I cant believe some of these lines... especially NCAAB. Big $$$$$ day!
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- NAIL OF THE DAY SAT 11/28- In the Black Saturday
GeeEffWhy
Reputation:79
Level:Pro
Since:Nov 16, 2009
November 28, 2009 8:22 am
Score: 4

2 early lines that I jumped on expecting them to go the opposite way

DUKE +5 - Absolute gift at home.....Somply the better team straight up

OVER SC/Clemson 44 - Better number than I expected to get.....2 teams that could score, despite some solid defense...Would be shocked to see either team not reach the 20+ mark
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- NAIL OF THE DAY SAT 11/28- In the Black Saturday
Brumski
Reputation:88
Level:All-Star
Since:Sep 23, 2009
November 28, 2009 8:29 am
Score: 62

Here's my pick6 for cfb today.. 

North Carolina -6
Ok State +8
Mizzou -3 (bought .5)
FSU +24.5
S. Florida +7 (bought .5)
Navy -9


...went a lousy 3-4 yesterday on posts, can't believe illinois (cbb) fell apart like that in the second half last nite!

Lookin forward to these games today and some $$$ second half plays!
-ski
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- NAIL OF THE DAY SAT 11/28- In the Black Saturday
$$$maker
Reputation:99
Level:Superstar
Since:Dec 10, 2008
November 28, 2009 8:40 am
Score: 90

Too bad for Butler last night or else it would have been a great night. Can we change this to green Saturday?Thanks for starting us off Raven. Great call on Portland Nail(you could 've told me they were going to win outright lol)!
Some soccer in a bit,lets get the $$
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- NAIL OF THE DAY SAT 11/28- In the Black Saturday
LOVESOCCER
Reputation:95
Level:Superstar
Since:Oct 26, 2008
November 28, 2009 8:48 am
Score: 15

Germany 1 Soccer

11/28/2009 9:30:01 AM - EST

FSV Mainz 05 ( Spread pk +120 ) for Game

Germany 1 Soccer

11/28/2009 9:30:01 AM - EST

Eintracht Frankfurt ( Money Line +250 ) for Game

Europe Soccer

11/28/2009 1:00:01 PM - EST

OGC Nice ( Money Line +250 ) for Game

Europe Soccer

11/28/2009 1:00:01 PM - EST

Valenciennes FC ( Money Line +400 ) for Game

Europe Soccer

11/28/2009 1:00:01 PM - EST

AJ Auxerre ( Money Line +350 ) for Game

England Soccer

11/28/2009 10:00:01 AM - EST

Leicaster ( Spread -½ +125 ) for Game

England Soccer

11/28/2009 10:00:01 AM - EST

West Brom ( Spread -½ +110 ) for Game
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- NAIL OF THE DAY SAT 11/28- In the Black Saturday
LOVESOCCER
Reputation:95
Level:Superstar
Since:Oct 26, 2008
November 28, 2009 8:55 am
Score: 49

hey guys



just got back from vacation................. from my lovely country Haiti.............. only wish i could stay there...........





.OGC Nice ( Money Line +250 ) for Game $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$   Dogg and Nail of the day 



as you can see ................ i have alot of upset ............don't be surprise if all win


good luck...................... only play those games if you like them


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- NAIL OF THE DAY SAT 11/28- In the Black Saturday
cubby_blue17
Reputation:99
Level:Superstar
Since:Sep 1, 2006
November 28, 2009 9:17 am
Score: 54

Good morning Nailers...

Somewhat small card for me today considering all the options...

CBB
Purdue -26

CFB
Duke +4.5 and ML
TCU
BYU
SJ State

Good luck today!
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- NAIL OF THE DAY SAT 11/28- In the Black Saturday
LUVOFMONEY21
Reputation:97
Level:Superstar
Since:Jan 20, 2009
November 28, 2009 9:21 am
Score: 62

LOCK--UF/FLA OVER 56

UF will put up 60 today..They will have 45 by halftime..Vegas is seeing UF in a blowout because they know how pitiful the FSU defense is and setting it at 56 is ridiculous.  Tebow's last game against there rivals =BLOWOUT....63-17.
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- NAIL OF THE DAY SAT 11/28- In the Black Saturday
sarge844
Reputation:97
Level:Superstar
Since:Dec 23, 2007
November 28, 2009 9:23 am
Score: 55

GREAT JOB CUTTER
4-0

TT NEV OVER 28.5   NAILED
NEV+13
RU -2.5
TT CINN OVER 37.5


NICE
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- NAIL OF THE DAY SAT 11/28- In the Black Saturday
pusseata
Reputation:86
Level:All-Star
Since:Sep 19, 2008
November 28, 2009 9:29 am
Score: 32

OHH GREEN FRIDAY WAS SOOOO GOOOOD!!!!!
Best day ever hit all 7 of my plays and doubled up on all of them.

FRIDAYS PLAYS
Rutgers -3.5                    W
Auburn-10.5                    W
Tulsa Memphis over 60     W
Illinois +20                     W
Colorado +10.5               W
Bowling green -8              W
Nevada +14                     W
Money mouth Money mouth Money mouth Money mouth Money mouth Money mouth Money mouth


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- NAIL OF THE DAY SAT 11/28- In the Black Saturday
Balls1
Reputation:98
Level:Superstar
Since:Jan 30, 2007
November 28, 2009 9:34 am
Score: 120

Good morning all, great to see everyone did so well yesterday. I turned a small profit at 3-1. I've got an hour to kill while the bride gets herself ready ( full day of Christmas shopping aheadYell) but a promise is a promise. Give me all you got, so I can do as much research as possible in the little time I have. Already looked into the Duke game, I do not see Wake being favored either, but I do not know JACK about Duke. Here's a line that also makes no sense to me, who the hell is San.Jose St. to be giving double digits to anyone? Once again I don't know these two teams either, except for the fact that there both god awful. 1-9, team laying over 10???  Thoughts.
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- NAIL OF THE DAY SAT 11/28- In the Black Saturday
Balls1
Reputation:98
Level:Superstar
Since:Jan 30, 2007
November 28, 2009 9:39 am
Score: 78

Cannot believe Wake actually beat Stanford in week#2! What a different path these two teams have taken since then.
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