Steve & Steve's Patriots Colts Key Matchups

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Our weekly pre-game analysis and key matchups will be a collaboration between our regular Patriots correspondent Steve Balestrieri,  and Patriots team HOFer LB Steve Nelson.

Steve played 14 seasons for the Patriots as an ILB and was voted to the Pro-Bowl 3 times. He retired with 1776 career tackles (a nice number for someone associated with anything Patriots!) He averaged 10.2 tackles a game for his entire career. He led the team in tackles in 8 of his 14 seasons. He was also voted as the starting ILB for the Patriots 50^th Anniversary Team.

Steve has graciously agreed to give us some of his expertise as he’s taking this season off from his normal television spot on the Patriots pre-game and Patriots 5^th Quarter post game show. Steve is a great addition to the team here and we welcome him for the football season.

Patriots Running Game-

The Colts like the Patriots have been pushed around at times on the ground this season. They have always been a smaller, fast, athletic defense, albeit one that you could run right at. The slower developing plays won’t work here. The Colts have been victimized at times this year and the Patriots will attempt to do the same. The balance the Patriots require, dictates that they run the ball enough to keep the defenses honest and this week is no exception.

The trio of Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk and BenJarvus Green-Ellis will get a lot of snaps. The offensive line will look to continue the good job they did last week against a tough physical Dolphins defense that will control the ball, the clock and most importantly keep the Colts offense off the field. They should be able to run effectively on this group.

Patriots Passing Game-

This is the key matchup on offense for the Patriots. The Colts like the Dolphins last week will have two rookie corner backs facing him. Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey will have the task of shutting down Randy Moss and Wes Welker. And like last week as well the Colts have the pass rushers to disrupt the passing game. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are great pass rushers from the edge and allow the Colts to bring excellent pressure without having to resort to blitzing.

The Colts do blitz on occasion and have mixed it up with a variety of different looks. This will be another great test for the Patriots tackles and OL. If they can give Tom Brady consistent good time to throw, then he will pick those young corners apart which in turn will open up other avenues for the Patriots to attack. If Freeney and Mathis pressure Brady, then he will have to make the hot reads and the young guys at corner will only have to cover for a second or two.

After a big game against the Fish, expect Brady to be able to find time to at least attempt a few shots down the field. The Colts are also without S Bob Sanders, but he’s absent as much as he’s in the lineup and S Melvin Bullitt is a very good fit for the defense. TE Ben Watson may again be a target down the seam here, especially in the red-zone where the Indy secondary will attempt to take away both Moss and Welker.

Colts Running Game-

The Colts boast a very good tandem of Joseph Addai and Donald Brown the rookie out of UConn. But like the Patriots, they have at times struggled to run the football and will look to keep it balanced unlike last week when Manning had to throw the ball 40 times in the first half.

Brown has a shoulder injury and is questionable at this time for Sunday. The Colts are very good at mixing it up especially in the red-zone and is something to look for. Coming off of a pretty impressive showing against Miami, the Patriots should be able to stifle the running game of the Colts. Vince Wilfork will be key in disrupting the running game at the point of attack. Jerod Mayo will have to be alert in the red zone for draws and screens to Joseph Addai.

Colts Passing Game-

The Colts pass the ball as well if not better than anyone today. Peyton Manning is doing it this season to his usual targets Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark but has involved youngsters Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie in a big way as well. Manning is playing as well as he’s ever done and is rightfully so, included in MVP talk once again. The two big keys of the game for the Patriots are defensively, One- can they generate any kind of pass rush with their front four at all, something that has been absent for far too much of the season. For if they allow Manning time to survey the field, he will bury you and Wayne and Clark will turn the plays upfield and the Colts will score quickly.

They must bring pressure and force Manning to throw before he wants to. If they blitz, they will have to get to him quickly. No one is better at recognizing the blitz and throwing the checkdowns right at where the blitz originated. The other key is that the Patriots defense relies on substitutions and different packages. The Colts can counter this with their no-huddle offense which will prevent the Patriots from substituting their nickel and dime packages. Bill Belichick will have to find a way of getting the best unit on the field of defending the Colts potent passing attack. Some key matchups may be Brandon McGowan against Dallas Clark. In the past, the Pats used Rodney Harrison in this regard and he did a good job against Clark. McGowan and the secondary as a whole have been a plus this season. Every week it seems, someone else is stepping up with a big play in the Pats secondary. It’s a welcome change from last season’s unit. It’s a deep,versatile unit and this week will be a big test. But without a viable pass rush, no one can stop the Colts passing game.

Special Teams-

The Patriots get the edge here, while neither team has been stellar at coverage this season, the Patriots have been improving lately and it has been the bane of the Colts for years. Now with the slew of injuries on defense, many of the Colts starters must do both. Adam Vinatieri is out with a knee injury and Indy has brought in Matt Stover to fill in. Stephen Gostkowski is a big upgrade over Stover in terms of accuracy and strength of his leg. He should be able to send his kicks indoors deep into the endzone giving the Pats the edge in the return game.

X Factors-

This season many of the “experts” picked the Colts to fall off their perch and return to the pack. They have had something to say about that and first year coach Jim Caldwell has them off to a very impressive 8-0 start. Manning isn’t fooled by Belichick’s defense anymore and has won 3 of the past 4 meetings, albeit last season the Pats had Matt Cassel instead of Brady at QB. The Colts have a huge home field advantage, although the new Lucas Oil Stadium isn’t as loud as the old place. Expect the roof to be closed regardless of weather, to make it a tad louder. The Patriots have the experience factor of Belichick over Caldwell in his first season. And Brady will look to burn those young corners early and often before they can find a comfort zone.

Summary-

SB- This one should be another classic matchup, Brady and Manning are the best there are at QB and love to face off against one another. They will each feast off of mistakes by the defense and can put points up in a hurry.

Protecting the QBs are key here, if Brady gets time to throw, the Colts with their rookie CBs are in trouble. If Manning gets time and goes no-huddle it will put tremendous pressure on the improved Patriots secondary. The running games are each secondary here, but the Patriots may use theirs to their advantage here to milk the clock and wear down the smaller Colts defense.

On defense, the Patriots will be limited in their substitutions so, they may come out like in ’07 playing somewhat of nickel and give them some running room but take away the pass. I think Bill Belichick will find a way to get it done on the road this year. Close the roof, turn on the heat, and pump up the crowd noise, because the Patriots win this one. Patriots 27-24

SN- This should be a great game both teams know each other very well. Both quarterbacks are smart, well prepared and can score points quickly. Peyton Manning is great at reading the blitz and making adjustments. He runs the no-huddle flawlessly. The Patriots will have to find a way to get their best scheme on the field. I doubt you’ll see much 3-4 in this one. The Patriots defense may come out and stay in a nickel package. They have to find a pass rush in this one or Manning will score at will.

On offense it will be simple, protect Brady, give him to throw and pick on the rookie corners. Sebastian Vollmer played really well for Matt Light against Joey Porter. He’ll have to do the same against Freeney. Likewise, they’ll need to bottle up Mathis as well. Run enough to keep their balance and they will score some points. That and execute a lot better in the red-zone than last week’s game against Miami.

I’m still not convinced the Patriots have played a truly great opponent this year. Some of the teams are definitely good, but not great. Same for Miami, this week will be a big test for them. Now is the time of year where teams and players get banged up. One of the best advantages that Belichick has always had is his ability to prepare the team and players for that. They adjust and plug players in and get them prepared to play better than anyone. Patriots 30-28

We will return Monday with our post-game analysis, until then…. It is what it is.