JoeNFL

I have to say that dealing with the below scenarios last night, particularly DENVER that has 16 possible clinching scenarios if you include ties and 10 without ties to get in, was one of the toughest week 16 follow-up nights in memory.   Having 8 teams within one game of each other at either 8-7 or 7-8 and 7 of those teams still have a chance to clinch a Wild Card spot has certainly created some chaos among teams, media and fans.

It should be noted that although you will see current playoff standings listing DEN and Jets as Wild Card teams ( http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standi
ngs/playoffrace ), only the JETS and Ravens actually control their own destiny to capture playoff spots.  This is because the Playoff Race page is listing results "If the Season Ended Today".  As it stands among the 8-7 teams, the tiebreaker between NYJ, BAL, HOU and DEN, which becomes NYJ, BAL and DEN after HOU drops out on conf record, they do not have enough games (need four) to qualify among their common opponents (NE, CIN, IND, OAK) as BAL has not played OAK yet and NYJ has not played CIN.  Detail below.  If they each win, you'll see below that NYJ would have the common opponents tiebreaker advantage at 4-1 vs. 3-2 for DEN and 1-4 for BAL.   After that...it would revert to BAL, HOU and DEN and HOU would drop out again on conf record and BAL beat DEN H2H to claim the #6 seed.

Common opponents for BAL DEN NYJ
BAL record against NE: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against CIN: 0/2 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against IND: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
BAL record against OAK: 0/0 (NaN) (games left 1)
BAL overall record: 0/4 (0.000)

DEN record against NE: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against CIN: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against IND: 0/1 (0.000) (games left 0)
DEN record against OAK: 1/1 (0.500) (games left 0)
DEN overall record: 3/2 (0.600)

NYJ record against NE: 1/1 (0.500) (games left 0)
NYJ record against CIN: 0/0 (NaN) (games left 1)
NYJ record against IND: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
NYJ record against OAK: 1/0 (1.000) (games left 0)
NYJ overall record: 3/1 (0.750)


AFC

  CLINCHED:   Indianapolis -- South division and homefield advantage.
              San Diego -- West division and first-round bye.
              Cincinnati -- North division.
              New England -- East division.
  ELIMINATED: Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland, Buffalo, Tennessee.

Baltimore, the Jets, Denver, Pittsburgh and Houston can also make the playoffs
if they tie this week with various other things happening. Jacksonville and
Miami cannot make the playoffs with a tie.

 BALTIMORE RAVENS
  Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
   1) BAL win

 NEW YORK JETS
  NY Jets clinch a playoff spot:
   1) NYJ win

 DENVER Broncos
  Denver clinches a playoff spot:
   1) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   2) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   3) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + HOU win
   4) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
   5) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + HOU win
   6) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss
   7) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   8) PIT loss + BAL loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
   9) PIT loss + HOU loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
  10) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

 PITTSBURGH Steelers
  Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   2) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) PIT win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 HOUSTON Texans
  Houston clinches a playoff spot:
   1) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   2) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie
   3) HOU win + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

 JACKSONVILLE Jaguars
  Jacksonville clinches a playoff spot:
   1) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + HOU loss
   2) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + NYJ loss
   3) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
   4) JAC win + PIT loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss 
   5) JAC win + NYJ loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + BAL loss

 MIAMI Dolphins
  Miami clinches a playoff spot:
   1) MIA win + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

Well...we made it.   On week 16, thanks to the Giants turning in a clunker of a game against CAR, the final two playoff spots were secured.

Official Scenarios are below (prior to CHI-MIN game).

NOTES:
- MIN wins tiebreaker over NO at 13-3 based on conf record (10-2 vs. 9-3)
- Although MIN has lead on #2 seed and 1st round bye, PHI, DAL and ARI can all still garner the #2 seed.  If MIN against CHI, only PHI can catch MIN (PHI wins tiebreaker on conf record).
- ARI wins 3-way tiebreaker at 11-5 with DAL and MIN (MIN drops out on conf record and ARI beats DAL on common opponents 4-1 to 2-3)
- PHI CANNOT be the #4 seed (if they win they will be #2 or 3 seed, if they lose they lose division title)
- DAL CANNOT be the #5 seed (if they lose they lose to GB based on overall or H2H)
- GB can only be the #6 seed if PHI loses and if GB loses in that case its very likely they would play ARI AGAIN a week later in the Wild Card round
- Right now, MIN can be any seed from #1 thru #4.  If they win tonight they can't be #4 and if they lose tonight they can't be #1.


WEEK 17 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC

  CLINCHED:   New Orleans -- South division and a first-round bye.
              Minnesota -- North division.
              Arizona -- West division.
              Philadelphia -- playoff spot.
              Green Bay -- playoff spot.
              Dallas -- playoff spot.
  ELIMINATED: Detroit, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington, Chicago, Seattle,
              Carolina, Atlanta, San Francisco, NY Giants.

 NEW ORLEANS Saints
  New Orleans clinches homefield advantage:
  IF MINNESOTA BEATS CHICAGO
   1) NO win or tie
   2) MIN loss or tie
  IF CHICAGO BEATS MINNESOTA
   New Orleans clinches homefield advantage.

 MINNESOTA Vikings
  Minnesota clinches homefield advantage:
  IF MINNESOTA BEATS CHICAGO
   1) MIN win + NO loss
  Minnesota clinches a first-round bye:
  IF MINNESOTA BEATS CHICAGO 
   1) MIN win or tie
   2) PHI loss or tie
  IF CHICAGO BEATS MINNESOTA
   1) MIN win + PHI loss or tie
   2) MIN tie + PHI loss

 ARIZONA Cardinals
  Arizona clinches a first-round bye:
  IF CHICAGO BEATS MINNESOTA
   1) ARI win + MIN loss + PHI loss

 PHILADELPHIA Eagles
  Philadelphia clinches East division:
   1) PHI win or tie
  Philadelphia clinches a first-round bye:
  IF MINNESOTA BEATS CHICAGO
   1) PHI win + MIN loss
  IF CHICAGO BEATS MINNESOTA
   1) PHI win
   2) PHI tie + MIN loss or tie

 DALLAS Cowboys
  Dallas clinches East divison:
   1) DAL win
  Dallas clinches a first-round bye:
  IF CHICAGO BEATS MINNESOTA
   1) DAL win + MIN loss + ARI loss or tie

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 NFC
(LET'S KEEP THIS THREAD TO NFC WEEK 15 SCENARIOS)

  CLINCHED:   New Orleans -- South division and a first-round bye.
              Minnesota -- playoff spot.
  ELIMINATED: Detroit, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington, Chicago.

 NEW ORLEANS Saints
  New Orleans clinches homefield advantage:
   1) NO win + MIN loss or tie
   2) NO tie + MIN loss

 MINNESOTA Vikings
  Minnesota clinches North division:
   1) MIN win
   2) MIN tie + GB loss or tie
   3) GB loss
  Minnesota clinches a first-round bye:
   1) MIN win + PHI loss or tie
   2) MIN tie + GB loss or tie + PHI loss

 ARIZONA Cardinals
  Arizona clinches West division:
    1) ARI win + SF loss or tie
    2) ARI tie + SF loss

 PHILADELPHIA Eagles
  Philadelphia clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PHI win or tie + NYG loss or tie
   2) PHI win + DAL win or tie

 GREEN BAY Packers
  Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
   1) GB win + DAL loss
   2) GB win + NYG loss or tie
   3) GB tie + NYG loss

WEEK 15 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

 AFC
(LET'S KEEP THIS THREAD TO AFC WEEK 15 COMMENTS)

  CLINCHED:   Indianapolis -- South division and homefield advantage.
  ELIMINATED: Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland.

 SAN DIEGO Chargers

  San Diego clinches West division title:
   1) DEN loss
   2) SD win or tie + DEN tie
  San Diego clinches a first-round bye:
   1) SD win + DEN loss or tie + NE loss or tie
  San Diego clinches a playoff spot:
   1) SD win or tie
   2) NE loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + MIA loss or tie
   3) NE loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
   4) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
   5) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + JAC loss or tie
   6) MIA loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + JAC loss or tie
   7) NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + JAC loss or tie

 CINCINNATI Bengals

  Cincinnati clinches North division title:
   1) CIN win
   2) CIN tie + BAL loss or tie
   3) BAL loss
  Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot:
   1) CIN tie + MIA loss + NYJ loss + JAC loss

I'm writing this during the MIN-ARIZ game which has some impact on tiebreakers, as does the GB-BALT game on Monday night, so these are preliminary thoughts on playoff scenarios for Week 14.

WHAT WE KNOW NOW:
- INDY has clinched the AFC South division title
- N.O. has clinched the NFC South division title
- MINN can clinch playoff berth with WIN tonight
- MINN can clinch NFC North division title with WIN tonight and GB loss Monday night

ELIMINATED TEAMS prior to this week:
- DET, CLEV, TB and STL

NEW ELIMINATED TEAMS:
- WASH has been eliminated from playoff contention this week.   WASH best record at this point is 7-9 and they can't catch DAL for division or PHIL for top wild card.  Also...since they can't win any tiebreaker with NYG in their division due to division record, they can't get to at least #3 in their division and that eliminates a team from the playoffs.
- KC has been eliminated from playoff contention this week.  This is due to domino effect of games yet to be played.  Best KC can be is 7-9 and 6-6 in AFC games and that means they can't catch DEN as the Top Wild Card and JAX already has 7 wins (JAX beat KC H2H, but still have to look at multi-team tiebreakers).  JAX would have to lose out to keep KC alive and that would mean MIA would get their 7th win (and also means NE would get their 8th win).  MIA would then have to lose out their other games and that would give PITT their 7th win.  PITT would have to lose out their other games and that would give BALT their 7th win (which they could also get tomorrow night).  BALT, who beat KC H2H week 1, would also get their 7th conference win with a win over PITT and that would best KC in conference record and BALT would be ahead of PITT in division tiebreaker based on H2H.  Since KC lost to BALT H2H and can't win any multi-team H2H ties, KC would lose to BALT in any tiebreaker based on conference record and are eliminated from playoff competition.

Early week 14 scenarios:
- INDY can clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a WIN vs. DEN week 14.  That would get them to 13-3 at worst and ony CIN and SD can catch them at 13-3 and only one of those two teams can get there at CIN plays SD week 15.  If it's CIN at 13-3, they both would be 9-3 in conf record and INDY would beat CIN on common games 4-1 to 3-2.  If it's SD at 13-3, they both would be 9-3 in conf record and INDY would beat SD on common games 5-0 to 3-2.

- CIN can clinch the AFC North division title with a WIN at MINN week 14 + one BALT loss either Monday at GB or next week vs. DET.  CIN getting to 10 wins with both PITT and BALT at 6 losses locks up the division for the Bengals since they have swept both teams this year.

- ARIZ, with a win tonight against MINN, can clinch the NFC West division title with a WIN at SF week 14.  ARIZ would be 9-7 at worst and would give SF their 8th loss and ARIZ has a season H2H sweep against SEA.

More to come as we get through SNF and MNF games.

Joe

* New Orleans clinched the NFC South division title

* MINN can clinch NFC North with Win tonight vs ARIZ + GB loss Monday night. 
A MINN win tonight will get them at least a playoff berth.  Also, a tie and a NYG loss today will get the Vikings a playoff spot.

* Indy has already clinched the AFC South and will not clinch a first round bye this week.
HOWEVER, IND can clinch homefield advantage hroughout the playoffs with a win at home week 14 vs DEN.

* CIN can clinch the AFC North division title with a WIN next week at MINN and one BALT loss either this Monday night at GB OR next week vs. DET

Much more to come later...

Early week 12 tiebreaker notes:

NEW ORLEANS can clinch the NFC South title with:
- WIN + ATL loss or tie
- TIE + ATL loss

INDIANAPOLIS can clinch the AFC South title with:
- WIN + JAX loss

Key Week 12 Tiebreaker games include:
- PITT at BALT (Sunday Night)
- NYG at DEN (Thanksgiving Night)
- NE at NO (Monday night)