Just pick these games all as you normally would. I am going to incorporate these picks into a "head-to-head" challenge and will post more info later:
Group A
10-KENTUCKY over Alabama
9-WAKE FOREST over Boston College
8-BUFFALO over Eastern Michigan
7-Georgia over AUBURN
6-WISCONSIN over Illinois
5-TULSA over Southern Miss
4-STONY BROOK over Maine
3-RHODE ISLAND over Richmond
2-VANDERBILT over Tennessee
1-CREIGHTON over Indiana State
Group B
10-MEMPHIS over UCF
9-Nevada over IDAHO
8-Drexel over HOFSTRA
7-MISSOURI over Iowa State
6-MISSOURI STATE over Southern Illinois
5-Virginia Tech over NORTH CAROLINA STATE
4-Illinois State over BRADLEY
3-CLEMSON over Florida State
2-UNLV over New Mexico
1-MIAMI (FLA.) over Georgia Tech
Group C
10-Baylor over NEBRASKA
9-Georgetown over PROVIDENCE
8-Virginia Commonwealth over GEORGE MASON
7-Duke over NORTH CAROLINA
6-SYRACUSE over Connecticut
5-MARYLAND over Virginia
4-DAYTON over Charlotte
3-MICHIGAN STATE over Purdue
2-OKLAHOMA over Texas Tech
1-SOUTH CAROLINA over Florida
Overall Standings (2886 points possible)
1) gezemice: 1745 points (222-87) 0.801 (Prev: 1, NC)
2) Lobofan2003: 1576 points (225-102) 0.761 (Prev: 4, UP 2)
3) hammerboyy: 1531 points (216-97) 0.745 (Prev: 2, DOWN 1)
4) BoilerBadger: 1475 points (208-82) 0.785 (Prev: 5, UP 1)
5) Fostsogg4UK: 1423 points (200-99) 0.738 (Prev: 3, DOWN 2)
6) GeoMapster: 1405 points (225-102) 0.74 (Prev: 7, UP 1)
7) Diabetic8025: 1377 points (195-108) 0.751 (Prev: 6, DOWN 1)
8) hoosierguy1019: 1326 points (218-109) 0.715 (Prev: 8, NC)
9) Beer: 1118 points (200-127) 0.685 (Prev: 10, UP 1)
10) bksballer89: 1078 points (151-85) 0.728 (Prev: 11, UP 1)
11) dantheman4250: 1033 points (190-125) 0.666 (Prev: 9, DOWN 2)
12) NCAABKJNKY81: 983 points (192-115) 0.667 (Prev: 12, NC)
13) kentucky0607: 757 points (113-51) 0.777 (Prev: 13, NC)
14) BPI: 632 points (144-76) 0.683 (Prev: 14, NC)
15) chrisisbuck#2: 388 points (53-18) 0.826 (Prev: 15, NC)
16) apoloniaSeeker: 149 points (27-14) 0.725 (Prev: 16, NC)
Beer
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Category: NCAAB
Beer's Bracket - 02/07/10Auto bids are in CAPS. Championship: St. Louis (M) / Syracuse (E) winner vs. Salt Lake City (W) / Houston (S) winner. St. Louis (M) Syracuse (E) Salt Lake City (W) Houston (S) Play-In Game: (16W) Lehigh vs. Jackson State @Dayton Last Six Pack: Florida (16-6), Louisville (14-8), Dayton (15-6), Richmond (17-6), South Florida (15-7), Cincinnati (14-8) Added: South Florida (15-7), TEXAS-EL PASO (16-5) NIT 1 Seeds: Marquette (14-8), Virginia Tech (17-4), Wichita State (18-5), San Diego State (14-6) Moving Up: West Virginia (18-3), NEW MEXICO (20-3), UNLV (17-4), Texas A&M (15-6), St. Mary's (19-3), Maryland (14-6), Louisville (14-8), Richmond (17-6), SIENA (20-4), WEBER STATE (12-8), Top 5 First Round Individual Matchups Top 5 Potential Second Round Individual Matchups (Assumes Seeds 12 or Better Advance) My First & Second Round Ticket For Thursday & Saturday Games My First & Second Round Ticket For Friday & Sunday Games
Category: NCAAB
Daily Picks: 2/7 & 2/8Sorry for posting so late:
11-SIENA over Fairfield 10-NORTHERN COLORADO over Northern Arizona 9-Jacksonville over LIPSCOMB 8-ST. PETER'S over Canisius 7-MARYLAND over North Carolina 6-RIDER over Niagara 5-Kansas over TEXAS 4-Villanova over WEST VIRGINIA 3-NOTRE DAME over South Florida 2-NEW MEXICO STATE over Louisiana Tech 1-CINCINNATI over Syracuse Overall Standings (2820 points possible) 1) gezemice: 1697 points (214-84) 0.799 (Prev: 1, NC) 2) Lobofan2003: 1510 points (214-102) 0.755 (Prev: 4, UP 2) 3) hammerboyy: 1471 points (206-96) 0.74 (Prev: 2, DOWN 1) 4) BoilerBadger: 1415 points (198-81) 0.78 (Prev: 5, UP 1) 5) Fostsogg4UK: 1377 points (193-95) 0.735 (Prev: 3, DOWN 2) 6) Diabetic8025: 1372 points (192-106) 0.748 (Prev: 6, NC) 7) GeoMapster: 1353 points (216-100) 0.737 (Prev: 7, NC) 8) hoosierguy1019: 1260 points (207-109) 0.708 (Prev: 8, NC) 9) Beer: 1072 points (191-125) 0.681 (Prev: 10, UP 1) 10) bksballer89: 1048 points (145-80) 0.728 (Prev: 11, UP 1) 11) dantheman4250: 1033 points (190-125) 0.666 (Prev: 9, DOWN 2) 12) NCAABKJNKY81: 947 points (183-113) 0.665 (Prev: 12, NC) 13) kentucky0607: 757 points (113-51) 0.777 (Prev: 13, NC) 14) BPI: 598 points (136-73) 0.68 (Prev: 14, NC) 15) chrisisbuck#2: 342 points (45-15) 0.823 (Prev: 15, NC) 16) apoloniaSeeker: 101 points (19-11) 0.691 (Prev: 16, NC)
Category: NCAAB
Daily Picks: 2/6... Part 2I was just waiting for Lobofan2003 to cry about his team before posting these:
20-Vanderbilt over GEORGIA 19-BUTLER over Wright State 18-MURRAY STATE over Austin Peay 17-Michigan State over ILLINOIS 16-MISSISSIPPI over Alabama 15-GEORGIA TECH over NC State 14-WICHITA STATE over Indiana State 13-TENNESSEE over South Carolina 12-FLORIDA STATE over Miami (Fla.) 11-NEW MEXICO over San Diego State 10-Arizona over WASHINGTON STATE 9-PITTSBURGH over Seton Hall 8-UTAH STATE over Nevada 7-MISSOURI STATE over Creighton 6-Old Dominion over VCU 5-Tulsa over UTEP 4-Arizona State over WASHINGTON 3-TEXAS A&M over Baylor 2-DePaul over CONNECTICUT 1-USC over Stanford
Category: NCAAB
Daily Picks: 2/6Nothing fancy... just get 'em right! 100 bonus points for everyone if Nova wins.
20-California over UCLA 19-Kansas State over IOWA STATE 18-Duke over BOSTON COLLEGE 17-Texas over OKLAHOMA 16-Missouri over COLORADO 15-West Virginia over ST. JOHN'S 14-LOUISVILLE over Rutgers 13-Gonzaga over MEMPHIS 12-Marquette over PROVIDENCE 11-Wake Forest over VIRGINIA 10-ARKANSAS over Auburn 9-Oklahoma State over TEXAS TECH 8-FLORIDA over Mississippi State 7-Xavier over DAYTON 6-Clemson over VIRGINIA TECH 5-Villanova over GEORGETOWN 4-George Mason over DREXEL 3-Duquesne over GEORGE WASHINGTON 2-UNLV over Brigham Young 1-RICHMOND over Temple Overall Standings (2400 points possible) 1) gezemice: 1341 points (179-79) 0.775 (Prev: 1, NC) 2) Lobofan2003: 1209 points (181-95) 0.73 (Prev: 2, NC) 3) hammerboyy: 1189 points (175-87) 0.723 (Prev: 3, NC) 4) BoilerBadger: 1148 points (165-74) 0.76 (Prev: 4, NC) 5) Fostsogg4UK: 1131 points (165-84) 0.719 (Prev: 5, NC) 6) Diabetic8025: 1122 points (163-95) 0.739 (Prev: 6, NC) 7) dantheman4250: 1095 points (168-108) 0.676 (Prev: 7, NC) 8) GeoMapster: 1079 points (186-90) 0.721 (Prev: 8, NC) 9) hoosierguy1019: 1071 points (179-97) 0.693 (Prev: 9, NC) 10) Beer: 929 points (164-112) 0.672 (Prev: 10, NC) 11) NCAABKJNKY81: 857 points (170-106) 0.66 (Prev: 11, NC) 12) bksballer89: 792 points (116-69) 0.708 (Prev: 12, NC) 13) kentucky0607: 491 points (85-39) 0.757 (Prev: 14, UP 1) 14) BPI: 346 points (109-60) 0.64 (Prev: 15, UP 1) 15) chrisisbuck#2: 28 points (12-8) 0.627 (Prev: 17, UP 2) 16) apoloniaSeeker: -11 points (4-6) 0.4 (Prev: 0, NA)
Category: NCAAB
Daily Picks: 2/4New strategy... I just noticed that my formula for picking games was Winner = ("Team that will definitely not win")^2. It was actually supposed to be the square root of "Team that will definitely not win". Let's see if it works: Overall Standings (2345 points possible) 1) gezemice: 1298 points (172-76) 0.772 (Prev: 1, NC) 2) Lobofan2003: 1180 points (174-92) 0.729 (Prev: 3, UP 1) 3) hammerboyy: 1152 points (168-84) 0.721 (Prev: 2, DOWN 1) 4) BoilerBadger: 1113 points (158-71) 0.758 (Prev: 6, UP 2) 5) Fostsogg4UK: 1094 points (157-82) 0.716 (Prev: 7, UP 2) 6) Diabetic8025: 1085 points (156-92) 0.736 (Prev: 4, DOWN 2) 7) dantheman4250: 1084 points (162-104) 0.678 (Prev: 9, UP 2) 8) GeoMapster: 1044 points (179-87) 0.718 (Prev: 5, DOWN 3) 9) hoosierguy1019: 1032 points (171-95) 0.689 (Prev: 8, DOWN 1) 10) Beer: 918 points (159-107) 0.673 (Prev: 12, UP 2) 11) NCAABKJNKY81: 846 points (164-102) 0.662 (Prev: 11, NC) 12) bksballer89: 767 points (111-64) 0.708 (Prev: 10, DOWN 2) 13) Go_Xavier_56: 598 points (112-74) 0.668 (Prev: 13, NC) 14) kentucky0607: 450 points (77-37) 0.749 (Prev: 14, NC) 15) BPI: 333 points (102-57) 0.641 (Prev: 15, NC) 16) Zagfan62: 29 points (7-3) 0.764 (Prev: 16, NC) 17) chrisisbuck#2: 28 points (12-8) 0.627 (Prev: 17, NC)
Category: NCAAB
Beer's Bracket - 02/02/10Auto bids are in CAPS. Championship: St. Louis (M) / Salt Lake City (W) winner vs. Syracuse (E) / Houston (S) winner. St. Louis (M) Salt Lake City (W) Syracuse (E) Houston (S) Play-In Game: (16S) Lehigh vs. Jackson State @Dayton Last Six Pack: Maryland (13-6), Florida (15-6), Dayton (15-6), Seton Hall (12-7), Richmond (16-6), Louisville (14-8) Added: Louisville (14-8), ARIZONA (12-9), KENT STATE (14-7), ARKANSAS STATE (11-8) NIT 1 Seeds: Marquette (13-8), Virginia Tech (16-4), San Diego State (13-6), Wichita State (18-4) Moving Up: Purdue (18-3), New Mexico (20-3), NORTHERN IOWA (19-2), Rhode Island (17-3), Charlotte (16-5), St. Mary's (18-3), Cincinnati (14-7), OLD DOMINION (17-6), SAM HOUSTON STATE (10-5) Top 5 First Round Individual Matchups Top 5 Potential Second Round Individual Matchups (Assumes Seeds 12 or Better Advance) My First & Second Round Ticket For Thursday & Saturday Games My First & Second Round Ticket For Friday & Sunday Games
Category: NCAAB
Daily Picks: 2/3... Upsets Rule!Here’s a new challenge that might change things a little bit. As you know, I always try to post the “Consensus” picks at or near the deadline. In this challenge, the people who pick AGAINST the majority will have a chance to be rewarded if they get it right. Let’s use last night’s picks as an example: 10-GREEN BAY (13) over Valparaiso (0) Again, bonus points will be awarded if you pick against the majority and get it right. The amount of points will depend on the how far “out there” you are. Using the picks above, 1 person picked Florida and 12 picked Tennessee. The “delta” was 11 (12 picks for Tenn -1 for Fla) and that game was “weighted” 6th with respect to all other picks. Using a similar example, the delta between California and Arizona was 3 (8 Az for - 5 for Cal) and the weight was 1. With today’s challenge, if you correctly pick an “upset”, you will receive bonus points equal to the “delta” times the weight. If Florida has won, that person would have received 66 (11 x 6) bonus points. If Cal had won, those people would have received 3 (3 x 1) bonus points. Normal scoring applies for all picks. Therefore, if you pick all of the “majority” teams you will get your regular score with no bonus points. There will not be any “penalties” for incorrectly picking an upset. As you can tell, a lot of points can be made by correctly picking a big upset. It’s also cool because each entry relies on all of the other entries to determine bonus points. Again, strategy can play a big factor (i.e. you see 15 people took Team A and no one has taken Team B) when making these picks. Feel free to post your picks via PM. In that example, I might take Team B for 1 point just on the off chance that they pull the upset. Of course, I could be sacrificing what would have been my 20 point game hoping for the upset… For the “purists” out there, I am keeping score with and without bonus points. When we get close to our “tournament” at the end of the year, I’ll post standings with and without bonus points. If there are a ton of upsets and it significantly skews our standings, I may "normalize" the bonus points to get things back in order). Good luck everyone… let me know if you have any questions. Beer Overall Standings (2114 points possible) 1) gezemice: 1112 points (157-70) 0.768 (Prev: 1, NC) 2) hammerboyy: 1050 points (154-77) 0.722 (Prev: 2, NC) 3) Lobofan2003: 979 points (158-87) 0.721 (Prev: 3, NC) 4) Diabetic8025: 942 points (141-86) 0.728 (Prev: 4, NC) 5) GeoMapster: 923 points (164-81) 0.713 (Prev: 5, NC) 6) BoilerBadger: 900 points (143-65) 0.757 (Prev: 6, NC) 7) Fostsogg4UK: 884 points (142-76) 0.708 (Prev: 7, NC) 8) hoosierguy1019: 823 points (157-88) 0.688 (Prev: 8, NC) 9) dantheman4250: 791 points (153-92) 0.694 (Prev: 10, UP 1) 10) bksballer89: 767 points (111-64) 0.708 (Prev: 9, DOWN 1) 11) NCAABKJNKY81: 692 points (152-93) 0.659 (Prev: 11, NC) 12) Beer: 675 points (144-101) 0.66 (Prev: 12, NC) 13) Go_Xavier_56: 598 points (112-74) 0.668 (Prev: 13, NC) 14) kentucky0607: 314 points (60-33) 0.742 (Prev: 14, NC) 15) BPI: 192 points (87-51) 0.607 (Prev: 15, NC) 16) Zagfan62: 29 points (7-3) 0.764 (Prev: 17, UP 1) 17) chrisisbuck#2: 28 points (12-8) 0.627 (Prev: 16, DOWN 1)
Category: NCAAB
Beer's Bracket - 01/31/10I tried to take into account as many of today's outcomes as possible (and had to rearrange several times). Exceptions are California and Maryland who had both won 8 of their last 10 (and at least 3 in a row)... until today! St. Louis (M) Salt Lake City (W) Syracuse (E) Houston (S) Play-In Game: (16S) Lehigh vs. Jackson State @Dayton Last Six Pack: St. Mary's (18-3), Dayton (15-6), Cincinnati (14-7), North Carolina (13-7), Richmond (16-6), Seton Hall (12-7) Added: Richmond (16-6), WEBER STATE (12-7), JACKSONVILLE (12-8), STONY BROOK (14-7), ROBERT MORRIS (14-8), LEHIGH (13-8), JACKSON STATE (8-11) NIT 1 Seeds: Marquette (13-8), Virginia Tech (16-3), Louisville (13-8), San Diego State (13-6) Moving Up: Georgetown (16-4), Wisconsin (16-5), Ohio State (15-6), BRIGHAM YOUNG (20-2), Baylor (15-4), Missouri (16-5), Florida State (16-5), Rhode Island (17-3), CALIFORNIA (14-6), MARYLAND (13-5) Top 5 First Round Individual Matchups Top 5 Potential Second Round Individual Matchups (Assumes Seeds 12 or Better Advance) My First & Second Round Ticket For Thursday & Saturday Games My First & Second Round Ticket For Friday & Sunday Games (1) Marquette (13-8) vs. (8) Virginia (12-6) (1) Virginia Tech (16-3) vs. (8) Iona (16-6) (1) Louisville (13-8) vs. (8) North Carolina State (14-8) (1) San Diego State (13-6) vs. (8) Portland (13-7) ************************* (1M) Missouri State (15-7) vs. (4M) Wright State (14-8) (1E) Boston College (12-10) vs. (4E) Drexel (12-10) (1W) Oklahoma (12-9) vs. (4W) College of Charleston (14-8) (1S) Georgia (9-10) vs. (4S) George Mason (15-7) ************************* (1) Indiana State (11-9) vs. (4) Oral Roberts (12-10) (1) Illinois State (15-7) vs. (4) St. Peter's (12-9) (1) Creighton (11-11) vs. (4) Princeton (10-5) (1) Montana (13-7) vs. (4) South Dakota (8-9) *************************
Category: NCAAB
Daily Picks: 2/1 & 2/211-SYRACUSE over Providence
10-Rhode Island over LA SALLE 9-St. John's over RUTGERS 8-WAKE FOREST over Miami (Fla.) 7-VILLANOVA over Seton Hall 6-NORTHWESTERN over Michigan 5-Texas over OKLAHOMA STATE 4-BUFFALO over Western Michigan 3-WISCONSIN over Michigan State 2-Mississippi over KENTUCKY 1-LOUISVILLE over Connecticut Overall Standings (2058 points possible) 1) gezemice: 1060 points (148-68) 0.764 (Prev: 1, NC) 2) hammerboyy: 1008 points (146-74) 0.718 (Prev: 2, NC) 3) Lobofan2003: 931 points (149-85) 0.716 (Prev: 3, NC) 4) Diabetic8025: 898 points (132-84) 0.724 (Prev: 4, NC) 5) GeoMapster: 861 points (154-80) 0.705 (Prev: 5, NC) 6) BoilerBadger: 848 points (134-63) 0.751 (Prev: 6, NC) 7) Fostsogg4UK: 838 points (133-74) 0.702 (Prev: 7, NC) 8) hoosierguy1019: 787 points (150-84) 0.685 (Prev: 8, NC) 9) bksballer89: 767 points (111-64) 0.708 (Prev: 9, NC) 10) dantheman4250: 741 points (145-89) 0.688 (Prev: 10, NC) 11) NCAABKJNKY81: 654 points (144-90) 0.655 (Prev: 11, NC) 12) Beer: 639 points (136-98) 0.656 (Prev: 12, NC) 13) Go_Xavier_56: 598 points (112-74) 0.668 (Prev: 13, NC) 14) kentucky0607: 270 points (52-30) 0.729 (Prev: 14, NC) 15) BPI: 154 points (80-47) 0.594 (Prev: 15, NC) 16) Zagfan62: 29 points (7-3) 0.764 (Prev: 17, UP 1) 17) chrisisbuck#2: 28 points (12-8) 0.627 (Prev: 16, DOWN 1)
Category: Fantasy Basketball
Beer Goggles: Who's In? Who's Out?We’re just days away from February (the only thing keeping us from March Madness)! To get everyone up to speed on the latest developments in the world of bracketology, three of the (self-proclaimed) resident experts have decided to let you follow along as they debate the pressing issues with their current brackets. In this blog, your favorite writers (Beer, Dantheman4250, & Lobofan2003) will review each other’s brackets (found here: Beer, Dan, Lobo) and call each other out to find out why they have a difference of opinions. However, we’re not talking about minor details… it’s like the other guys are seeing through “Beer Goggles ”. You know what I’m talking about… limited discretion, pretending the unattractive teams are actually good (or at least good enough!) Basically, they must have their “Beer Goggles” on because they’re seeing something that I’m not seeing… Here’s how it works: Each of us gets to call out the other “bracketologists” on 2 major points so they can explain their rationale (i.e. selecting Team A over Team B, seeding a team too high, placing a team in a certain region, selecting “x” teams from 1 conference, etc.). When we update our brackets, we’ll sanity check each other to find out who is for real and who is wearing their “beer goggles”. Let the fun begin: 12. Dan has Baylor as a # 13 seed in his bracket. Lobo and Beer have Baylor seeded 7 & 8 respectively… Beer wants to know: “Are we talking about the same Baylor team that had a double digit win over Oklahoma State (a #6 seed in your bracket) just two weeks ago? These guys only have 4 close losses (all 7 points or less) and you’ve got Siena (who’s best win was by 6 points at home over Northeastern in mid-November) seeded ahead of them. What gives?” Dan : Baylor's RPI is 33 but it's 2-3 in Big 12 play and has only played the 62nd hardest schedule nationally. They've lost three of five games (including one to Colorado, who loses to Colorado?) and have yet to win a game against a sure tournament team. Xavier's computer numbers are good, but neither the Musketeers or Oklahoma State (Baylor's best Ws) are sure locks for the big dance. Right now I think the Bears' nice record has people fooled right now. We will find out more against Kansas State. 11. Lobofan is not buying what Beer is trying to sell when it comes to Miss. St: “I know you made the bracket before their loss to Arkansas, but I didn't even have Mississippi State in before that loss. Prior to the loss to Arkansas the Bulldogs had an RPI of 54 and a SOS of 136. Yes they have wins over Mississippi and Old Dominion, but they also have bad losses to Western Kentucky and Rider.” Beer : Yes – The Bulldogs were 15-4 (3-1 in SEC) when they lost last night. How can you bring up Western Kentucky and then put Vanderbilt as a #3 seed (sorry… I’m on the defensive)? The Rider loss on the other hand is completely unacceptable. After the Arkansas loss, the Bulldogs will likely be on the outside looking in next time. Maybe I was fooled because they had won nearly 80% of their games including Ole Miss and Ole Dominion. Ultimately, their last minute loss to Richmond back in November may keep them “Ole” the way out of the tournament (see what I did there?). 10. Dan wants answers… and Lobofan is ready: “Not to be repetitive (and I realize your bracket was updated before the Wake-GT game) but I don't see Wake as a 5 or Seton Hall in at all right now. For more on those things, see my argument to Beer below. I think I value how teams are playing at this point a little more than you guys do in your evaluations. To add in a little bit more, Seton Hall has 12 wins on the year and 8 of those have come against teams ranked 100 or higher in the RPI. That means their beating teams that aren't very good. The Pirates non conference SOS is 180.” Lobo : I know Beer is going to reply to the Wake and Seton Hall questions as well, but I'll just give a short response. Compare Wake's resume to my other 5 seeds and I think you'll see their fairly similar. Wake Forest Georgia Tech Tennessee New Mexico As far as Seton Hall goes the loss to South Florida hurts them that is for sure, but they do have 4 Top 50 wins which is better than other bubble teams. 9. Lobofan goes in for the kill: “Dan- I'm going to call out some conference leaders. What has California done to earn a 7 seed? I know they have lofty computer numbers but they have yet to a beat an RPI Top 50 team (0-4). They have no opportunities left to get a Top 50 win either (although Arizona is close). I know they are the presumptive winner of the Pac-10, but that doesn't carry much weight this year considering they look like a 1-bid League?” Dan : Last season Tennessee was a 8 seed after winning the weak SEC. California has great computer numbers that compare very nicely to the Vols from last season. Both played in very weak conferences compared to the average season in their conference. California has a RPI of 19 and has played a SOS ranked #3. Last season Tennessee ended the year with a RPI of 25 and played a SOS ranked #3. I think the computer numbers will get the Bears a higher seed than most think. Even in a down Pac 10, it appears as if California is a safe bet to make the tournament. 8. Beer asks Lobofan… why Louisville? “They have 1 top 50 win (over the Bearcats), got thumped by Charlotte at home (see point 6 below), and couldn’t get past the Western Carolina Catamounts (owners of 2 losses outside of the RPI Top 225). How do they deserve an at large bid over teams such as Dayton or St. Mary’s, for example? I do like their draw in San Jose with Wake Forest in the first round (who somehow grabbed a 5 seed in your bracket) and Temple in the second round. I also have them playing an ACC team in the first round... but it's NC State as a #1 seed in the NIT. Thoughts???” Lobo : First off you only called me out on my last two teams in the bracket so I must be doing something right (Editor’s note: The opinions expressed in this sentence are strictly those of Lobofan2003 and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Beer.) Louisville has an RPI of 47 and a SOS of 9 so the computer numbers (specifically SOS) are high compared to some other bubble teams. Louisville is 4-3 in the Big East, an above .500 record in the Big East will likely get you in, especially in a down year for another power conference (the Pac-10). Yes, their record against the Top 50 is poor, but they can compete with anybody. They had a big lead at home against Villanova before blowing that lead in the 2nd half. (Editor’s note #2: Go Nova!) 7. Dan’s a straight shooter… “Beer: I've got to ask how Wake Forest, a team that has lost to Duke & Georgia Tech by a combined 41 points in two of their last four games, is a 6 seed in your bracket. The selection committee doesn't usually give teams that are playing poorly high seeds going into the tournament, and if the season ended today the Demon Deacons would be 3-3 in their last six games.” Beer : Let me consult the experts on this one (from Dantheman4250)…”Georgia Tech’s dismantling of Wake Forest caused the Yellow Jackets to rise two seeds (from 7 to 5) and forced me to move Wake down a seed (from 6 to 7).” You may see a huge difference between a #6 and #7 seed but I consider it negligible. Looking at my #7seeds (Miss, Baylor, UAB, and Xavier), I couldn’t justify moving them any lower. Wake (RPI = 23, SOS = 17, Top 50 = 4-3) beat Xavier and here are the profiles for those other teams: - Miss (RPI = 30, SOS =73, Top 25 = 1-3) Sure, a #7 seed would be reasonable for Wake but I don’t see any suitable replacement in the #6 spot. 6. What was Dan thinking with Charlotte seeded as a #9? Beer’s opinion: “I have them as one of my last 4 in. You’ve put them way ahead of that same Baylor team. Baylor beat Xavier earlier this year. What happened when Charlotte played Xavier a few weeks ago??? In addition to that loss, Charlotte had a 30 point loss at Old Dominion and a 40 point loss at Duke. Do you know something that we don’t about the 49ers?” Dan : This one is a hard one to answer because when I think of the 49ers all I can picture is Duke running them off the floor. Look at Charlotte's losses: Duke, Xavier, Old Dominion, Tennessee, Georgia Tech. None of those are bad losses and all of them have come to likely NCAA Tournament teams. How many teams can say that 20 games into their season? Remember, this team also has victories against Temple, Richmond, and Louisville. A lot of the seeding towards the bottom of my bracket is done based on who can play where (due to conference issues mainly) and Charlotte drew a 9 seed due to that. Honestly, they're probably more of a 10 right now in my mind, although I don't feel as if a 9 is out of the realm of possibility with their current resume. 5. Beer has some serious explaining to do if you ask Lobofan: “You and I have Vanderbilt and Tennessee flipped as far as their seeds go. I have Vanderbilt as a 3 seed and Tennessee as a 5, you have Tennessee as a 3 and Vanderbilt as a 5. How can you justify having Tennessee seeded over Vanderbilt when Vanderbilt has the higher RPI, better record, a head-to-head win and is leading the SEC?” Beer : OK… let’s talk about Vandy, a #12 seed in my bracket as of 01/11 (just over two weeks ago). What have they done since then: Won at home over Auburn and won at Alabama, at South Carolina, and at UT. That’s 3 teams in the 70 – 150 range for RPI and 1 top 25 team. Did I mention that the Vols beat Kansas? Let me change the subject… Did you notice that we had the same exact #4 seeds (stats provided by CBS): - Wisconsin (RPI = 11, SOS =11, 4-4 Top 50 including 2 Top 25 wins) Vandy (RPI = 18, SOS = 43, 3-1 Top 50, including 1 Top 25 win) Everything else being equal, Pitt looks more like a 3 seed and Gonzaga looks more like a 5 seed. That makes Vandy and Tenn 4 seeds… just like we said! 4. Lobofan is crying to his mom right now as Dan takes no prisoners: “Missouri as a 7 seed seems iffy to me with losses to Oklahoma and Oral Roberts and only two wins versus teams in my field (Old Dominion and Kansas State), with neither of those wins coming on the road. The Tigers RPI is 45 and their SOS is 80, not exactly the computer numbers of a highly seeded bubble at large team. 7 of Missouri's 15 wins have come against teams that aren't ranked in the Top 100 of the RPI (and only wins versus the top 50). Their non conference SOS is 220! The Tigers have just one road win all year.” Lobo : As far as Missouri goes they are 15-5 overall and 3-2 in conference. The Tigers are 10-2 over their last 12. They are 3-3 against the RPI Top 50 (ok, but not great). Compare that though to the teams on the 8 seed line: Xavier is 4-5 against the Top 50 (who I originally had as a 7 seed but swapped with Rhode Island to avoid a rematch), UNLV is 3-2, Baylor is 2-2 and UCONN is 1-5 (ouch!). In the end I didn't feel any of these teams were worthy of jumping over Missouri (except Xavier as already noted). 3. Lobofan’s mom tells him to go for the jugular… he wants blood as he rips into Dan: ”You have Maryland as a 9-seed, yet you don't even have them listed as the Auto Bid. Maryland would be a borderline bubble team without the ACC Auto Bid. They are 1-4 against the RPI Top 50 with their best win being against Florida St. RPI of 50 and SOS of 45 are OK, but not good enough to be seeded ahead of teams like UCONN, Cincinnati and Texas A&M.” Dan : Lobo, I think we can all agree that Duke is the best team in the ACC, but I bet if we asked 11 people to rank the other 11 teams in the ACC (based on resume), we'd get 11 different rankings in return. That's how crazy the ACC is this year. Look at Maryland's five losses: Cincinnati, Wisconsin, William & Mary, Wake Forest, Villanova. Again (like I said with Charlotte), none of those are bad losses. The problem for the Terps (as you stated) is that they only have one good win and that was against fellow ACC bubbler Florida State. To me Maryland's status leading the ACC, coupled with the fact it has no bad losses and it's decent RPI and SOS ranks, leaves me thinking the Terps are in the 9-11 range. Once again (as I said in my Charlotte argument), towards the bottom of the bracket you really have to fit teams in where they can go. I know we all deal with this when making a bracket, but sometimes teams can be seeded a spot higher than we want them to be due to conflicts. 2. Lobo and the crowd disagree on their “Mary’s” this week. Beer lays his cards on the table (and takes a swig of his beer): “Dan & I have St. Mary’s in our brackets while you have William & Mary in with an at large bid. One of them is 18-3 with a 5-1 conference record (RPI in the 30’s) and the other is 14-6 with a 6-4 conference record (RPI in the 50’s). One of them has won 3 in a row and the other has lost 3 in a row (clue: it's not St. Mary's). Talk to me…” Lobo : Now for the Mary's: I'm going to defend William & Mary, but I'm also going to call out St. Mary's. I know this was after your brackets came out, but St. Mary's RPI and SOS went down despite winning last night. Their RPI and SOS was 32 and 84 respectively and went down to 39 and 95. As conference play continues they still have 5 games with sub-200 RPI teams left and the RPI and SOS will continue to go down, so don't take too much stock in their computer numbers. One RPI Top 50 win in the non-conference against San Diego St. at home is not going to get them into the Tournament (see last season). Unless the Gaels beat the Zags in Spokane or win the WCC tournament they are not going to get into the NCAA Tournament. William & Mary has 3 RPI Top 50 wins; @Wake Forest (a 5 seed in my bracket), @Maryland (ACC leader) and against fellow bubble team Richmond. Yes they have a couple of bad losses, but despite a 3 game losing streak they are still 8-4 in their last 12. Two wins over tournament teams compared to none for St. Mary's, it should really be no comparison between the two who gets in. 1. Last shot fired by Dan at an unarmed Beer: “I also have to ask why Seton Hall is in. I had the Pirates in before their loss to South Florida, but that loss (along with a RPI of 57 and a 12-7 overall record) have them out of my bracket for now. They've lost 7 of their last 11 games and would have a hard time getting in with an under .500 conference record. Seton Hall's next two against Villanova and Pittsburgh are going to tell us a lot more about the Pirates.” Beer : I thought someone would ask about the “Beer Goggles” I was wearing when I picked up Seton Hall during last call. 4 Top 50 wins doesn’t looks so bad does it? No losses outside of the Top 75. Their sheer volume of recent losses makes them look pretty ugly. I’m willing to overlook USF (that was before my bracket was posted). Here’s who beat the Hall in their last 11: Cuse (#1 seed), WV (Top 3 seed), Georgetown (Top 4 seed), Temple (Top 4 seed unless you’re Dan) & UConn (Top 8 seed unless you’re Dan). So, does 4 Top 50 wins negate 5 Top 30 losses? Let’s put it this way… Uconn (1 Top 50 win vs. 5 Top 50 losses), Cincy (3 Top 50 wins vs. 5 Top 50 losses), and Louisville (1 Top 50 win vs. 5 Top 50 losses) are in both of your brackets. As expected, there were some “minor” disagreements. What do you think (besides the fact that Beer rules)?
Category: NCAAB
Daily Picks: 1/31Guaranteed to be more exciting than the Pro Bowl:
10-Wichita State over SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 9-GREEN BAY over Valparaiso 8-Pittsburgh over SOUTH FLORIDA 7-OHIO STATE over Minnesota 6-NORTH CAROLINA over Virginia 5-TENNESSEE over Florida 4-CLEMSON over Maryland 3-ARIZONA over California 2-MIAMI (FLA.) over Virginia Tech 1-Saint Joseph's over DUQUESNE Overall Standings (2145 points possible) 1) gezemice: 1041 points (141-65) 0.743 (Prev: 1, NC) 2) hammerboyy: 995 points (139-71) 0.721 (Prev: 3, UP 1) 3) Lobofan2003: 932 points (143-81) 0.701 (Prev: 2, DOWN 1) 4) Diabetic8025: 889 points (126-80) 0.707 (Prev: 6, UP 2) 5) GeoMapster: 860 points (149-75) 0.696 (Prev: 7, UP 2) 6) BoilerBadger: 837 points (128-59) 0.734 (Prev: 8, UP 2) 7) Fostsogg4UK: 821 points (127-70) 0.717 (Prev: 5, DOWN 2) 8) hoosierguy1019: 788 points (145-79) 0.676 (Prev: 9, UP 1) 9) bksballer89: 767 points (111-64) 0.708 (Prev: 4, DOWN 5) 10) dantheman4250: 754 points (141-83) 0.681 (Prev: 11, UP 1) 11) NCAABKJNKY81: 657 points (138-86) 0.676 (Prev: 10, DOWN 1) 12) Beer: 632 points (130-94) 0.649 (Prev: 13, UP 1) 13) Go_Xavier_56: 598 points (112-74) 0.668 (Prev: 12, DOWN 1) 14) kentucky0607: 270 points (52-30) 0.697 (Prev: 15, UP 1) 15) BPI: 153 points (75-42) 0.643 (Prev: 14, DOWN 1) 16) chrisisbuck#2: 41 points (7-3) 0.873 (Prev: 16, NC) 17) Zagfan62: 29 points (7-3) 0.764 (Prev: 17, NC)
Category: NCAAB
Beer's Bracket - 01/29/10Auto bids are in CAPS. Championship: St. Louis (M) / Salt Lake City (W) winner vs. Syracuse (E) / Houston (S) winner. St. Louis (M) Salt Lake City (W) Syracuse (E) Houston (S) Play-In Game: (16S) Lafayette vs. Texas Southern @Dayton Last Six Pack: North Carolina (13-7), Florida (15-5), Dayton (14-6), Cincinnati (13-7), Charlotte (15-5), Seton Hall (12-6) Added: Florida (15-5), Charlotte (15-5), Seton Hall (12-6), MAINE (13-6), QUINNIPIAC (13-6), TEXAS SOUTHERN (8-9) NIT 1 Seeds: Louisville (13-7), Virginia Tech (15-3), Texas Tech (14-6), Marquette (12-8) Moving Up: West Virginia (16-3), TEMPLE (17-4), Georgia Tech (14-5), Connecticut (13-7), UAB (18-2), Xavier (13-6), Missouri (15-5), Oklahoma State (16-4), UNLV (16-4), St. Mary's (16-3) Top 5 First Round Individual Matchups Top 5 Potential Second Round Individual Matchups (Assumes Seeds 12 or Better Advance) My First & Second Round Ticket For Thursday & Saturday Games My First & Second Round Ticket For Friday & Sunday Games
Category: NCAAB
Daily Picks: 1/29 & 1/30... Extra Credit!My last round of picks confirmed my suspicion that you are all way smarter than me! This next challenge is simple. There are 2 groups below. Pick and rank the games in each group as you normally would. You will be scored using the standard method for the group you choose. The other group is for “Extra Credit” only. The person who scores the MOST points with their “Extra Credit” entry will earn those points. Everyone else will receive 0 points for their Extra Credit entry. I will post mine later when I have more time. Don’t forget to tell us which entry is for “Extra Credit”: GROUP A GROUP B Overall Standings (1738 points possible) 1) gezemice: 865 points (115-53) 0.746 (Prev: 1, NC) 2) Lobofan2003: 836 points (120-66) 0.722 (Prev: 2, NC) 3) hammerboyy: 787 points (111-61) 0.714 (Prev: 3, NC) 4) bksballer89: 767 points (111-64) 0.708 (Prev: 5, UP 1) 5) Fostsogg4UK: 766 points (103-56) 0.714 (Prev: 4, DOWN 1) 6) Diabetic8025: 753 points (102-66) 0.715 (Prev: 6, NC) 7) GeoMapster: 706 points (123-63) 0.692 (Prev: 7, NC) 8) BoilerBadger: 685 points (100-49) 0.74 (Prev: 8, NC) 9) hoosierguy1019: 646 points (118-68) 0.673 (Prev: 9, NC) 10) NCAABKJNKY81: 626 points (113-73) 0.674 (Prev: 10, NC) 11) dantheman4250: 608 points (114-72) 0.678 (Prev: 12, UP 1) 12) Go_Xavier_56: 598 points (112-74) 0.668 (Prev: 11, DOWN 1) 13) Beer: 510 points (107-79) 0.643 (Prev: 13, NC) 14) BPI: 156 points (50-29) 0.639 (Prev: 15, UP 1) 15) kentucky0607: 116 points (24-20) 0.62 (Prev: 16, UP 1) 16) chrisisbuck#2: 41 points (7-3) 0.873 (Prev: 0, NA) 17) Zagfan62: 29 points (7-3) 0.764 (Prev: 0, NA)
Category: NCAAB
Daily Picks: 1/2810-XAVIER over Duquesne
9-PITTSBURGH over St. John's 8-Seton Hall over SOUTH FLORIDA 7-ARIZONA over Stanford 6-Virginia Tech over VIRGINIA 5-Oakland over IUPUI 4-PURDUE over Wisconsin 3-Wake Forest over GEORGIA TECH 2-Southern Illinois over INDIANA STATE 1-ARIZONA STATE over California Overall Standings (1683 points possible) 1) gezemice: 830 points (107-51) 0.743 (Prev: 2, UP 1) 2) Lobofan2003: 809 points (113-63) 0.721 (Prev: 1, DOWN 1) 3) hammerboyy: 764 points (105-57) 0.714 (Prev: 8, UP 5) 4) Fostsogg4UK: 739 points (96-53) 0.713 (Prev: 11, UP 7) 5) bksballer89: 736 points (104-61) 0.705 (Prev: 5, NC) 6) Diabetic8025: 726 points (96-62) 0.714 (Prev: 3, DOWN 3) 7) GeoMapster: 661 points (115-61) 0.684 (Prev: 4, DOWN 3) 8) BoilerBadger: 648 points (93-46) 0.736 (Prev: 12, UP 4) 9) hoosierguy1019: 619 points (111-65) 0.67 (Prev: 9, NC) 10) NCAABKJNKY81: 603 points (106-70) 0.673 (Prev: 10, NC) 11) Go_Xavier_56: 581 points (107-69) 0.668 (Prev: 7, DOWN 4) 12) dantheman4250: 579 points (108-68) 0.676 (Prev: 6, DOWN 6) 13) Beer: 493 points (102-74) 0.642 (Prev: 13, NC) 14) s0merand0mdude: 323 points (55-27) 0.711 (Prev: 14, NC) 15) BPI: 123 points (42-27) 0.624 (Prev: 15, NC) 16) kentucky0607: 87 points (18-16) 0.583 (Prev: 16, NC)
Category: NCAAB
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