Ken Berger

Apparently, the Magic have acquired Vince Carter. I hadn't noticed -- until Monday night.

Let's not get too carried away with Carter's incredible display against the Hornets -- 48 points, 34 in the second half, and only three shy of his career high. This is not what the Magic had in mind when they pre-empted Hedo Turkoglu's departure by trading for Carter. They expected what they'd gotten for most of the season until now -- a former All-Star who is willing to settle into a secondary role behind Dwight Howard.

But you have to believe it was nice for Stan Van Gundy to witness this unexpected development in the Magic's 123-117 victory over New Orleans. It won't happen often, but when the Magic are slogging their way through the playoffs in a few months, getting sick to death of listening to Van Gundy yell at them about defense with that raspy voice of his, at least they'll know this: Vince Carter is still capable of taking over a game. On occasion, he is still unguardable.

Carter had settled into a mostly pedestrian existence in Orlando, deferring to younger teammates with more bounce in their legs. He hadn't been this good all year, by a lot. He hadn't warranted being a Twitter trending topic since before Twitter was invented.

I can confidently say that 48 points will be his season high; he won't do this again. But the fact that he showed that he can is every bit as important. When the Magic play Cleveland, Boston, Atlanta, or whomever else gets in the way come May and June, their opponent will have to defend Carter as though he will do that again.
 
That's why Carter will be better for the Magic in the playoffs than Turkoglu would've been. You saw merely a glimpse of his worth Monday night, and a glimpse is all it takes.

A year ago, one of the most active storylines of All-Star weekend in Phoenix was whether Amar’e Stoudemire’s last game with the Suns would be an exhibition game. This weekend, it’ll be the same storyline, but in a different city.

And this time, Stoudemire isn’t alone. The few contenders who are clear buyers at the trade deadline are feasting their eyes on an impressive list of big men who could change uniforms before the Feb. 18 trade deadline and perhaps change the playoff picture, too.

A high-level source involved in the Suns’ strategizing estimated that Stoudemire has a “30 percent chance” of being traded. His situation is the most intriguing of all the star players who could be moved by Feb. 18, given his status as an All-Star starter. The plot only became more interesting with Stoudemire’s recent comments/head fake that he’s leaning toward not exercising the early termination option in his contract, which would pay him $17.7 million next season. Some team executives believe Stoudemire, surmising that opting in would be the best move if Stoudemire doesn’t believe max money will be there for him this summer. Others find ignoring the ETO implausible for any player with a choice between signing a long contract under the current collective bargaining agreement and waiting for the new one, which clearly will be worse for the players.

One league source familiar with the market for Stoudemire expressed skepticism about rumblings that Stoudemire could be headed to Philadelphia. The person said there’s no consensus among the Sixers’ brass that Stoudemire would be the player they’d want to commit max money to – especially after the Elton Brand fiasco. From the Phoenix side, the person said, owner Robert Sarver’s non-basketball businesses (banking and real estate) have been hit too hard by the recession to make the Suns a credible landing spot for Samuel Dalembert’s $12.2 million due next season – not to mention Andre Iguodala’s four years and $56 million remaining.

With that, let’s get to the rest of the Post-Ups – pre-All-Star/trade deadline edition:

• Tyrus Thomas isn’t as big a name as Stoudemire, but league sources agree he’s far more likely to be dealt by Feb. 18 – if not sooner. One person familiar with the situation said it would be surprising if the Thomas situation stretched into next week after his recent dustup with coach Vinny Del Negro over losing his starting job to rookie Taj Gibson. Sources say the Bulls would prefer to package Thomas in a bigger deal that would clear cap space for a major free agent signing -- such as a scenario detailed here involving the Celtics’ Ray Allen. Short of that, the Bulls would be eager to unload Thomas in a smaller deal that would bring back less significant assets that could be used to surround and entice a marquee free agent. Two Western Conference teams intrigued by Thomas are the Nuggets, patiently seeking a big man to contend with the Lakers, and the Spurs, who were characterized by two rival executives as desperate to acquire an athletic big man. “They feel like they have to do something, like they’re behind the eight ball a little bit,” one of the execs said. The Spurs have a full complement of expiring contracts that would intrigue the Bulls, who want to avoid losing a significant player with no compensation (see Ben Gordon) for the second straight summer. The Spurs, who dipped their toe across the luxury tax line this season, will have to decide before the end of their annual circus road trip – which continued Monday night against the Lakers – what they’re willing to give up to see that investment pay off.

• Team executives differ widely in their assessment Marcus Camby’s availability, with some convinced Camby’s gone and others equally convinced he’s going nowhere. The truth is somewhere in between. A person familiar with the Clippers’ internal discussions said the team would move Camby and his $7.65 million contract only in a deal that would yield a significant player who could help them next season – or the cap space to sign one. The Clips are a small deal away from clearing the $15-$16 million necessary to sign a max player. If they can’t improve their 2010-11 position dramatically, Camby stays. Two of Camby’s former teams, the Nuggets and Knicks, are intrigued by the possibility of bringing him back for an encore.

• Another active buyer in trade talks, the Mavericks, haven’t pushed hard for Kevin Martin in their conversations with Sacramento, sources say. That’s an indication that the Mavs are focused on another wing who’d fit their needs – Washington’s Caron Butler. How aggressively the Wizards look to unload contracts as they try to pick up the pieces from Gilbert Arenas’ suspension depends on how a fundamental internal disagreement is resolved. Some elements of the Wizards’ power structure favor “completely blowing it up,” according to one source, while others are holding out for a more patient approach. “How badly does Dallas want Caron Butler?” one rival executive said. “Washington will find out.” The Mavs have not been pushing for Antawn Jamison in their talks with the Wizards, believing they have enough 30-somethings on the roster.

• An important factor to remember in trying to decipher the Wizards’ strategy is their ownership situation. Despite a recent hangup in the transfer of power from the family of late owner Abe Pollin to Ted Leonsis, rival executives believe a completed sale to Leonsis is a foregone conclusion. The Wizards have little hope of trading enough contracts to get under the luxury tax, but any savings derived from pre-deadline deals would produce double the benefit in tax payments – a scenario that would appease both the owner and the seller in that transaction.

• If the Wizards take the “blowing it up” route, their exploratory conversations with Houston involving Tracy McGrady would become more serious. But a high-level source familiar with the situation said T-Mac’s best chance to play again this season is in New York, which would willingly take on his $23 million expiring contract if it meant clearing some 2010-11 money off the books. The Knicks aren’t willing to part with anything Houston would want, however, so a third team would need to be recruited.

• Despite their active posture in trade talks, the Sixers aren’t willing to do strictly a financial deal for Iguodala. Thus, they’re not interested in McGrady alone, but instead are pushing for legit value in return.

• Miami and Charlotte remain in the mix with the Rockets and Trail Blazers for Wizards center Brendan Haywood. The Blazers continue to steadfastly reject any scenario that includes Rudy Fernandez or Nicolas Batum.

Few grand conclusions can be drawn from February NBA games. But in this case, the Celtics' latest disappointing loss only underscored what has been a poorly kept secret among NBA executives for weeks: Ray Allen's time in Boston is likely coming to an end.

Thanks to a non-competitive third quarter, the Celtics fell to Orlando 96-89 on Sunday, dropping them to third in the East behind the Cavs and Magic. The struggling Celtics still have three games against Cleveland to prove they haven't fallen from elite status. But after going 1-3 against Orlando and 0-4 against Atlanta, the Celtics have reached a crossroads in their bid to milk one more championship banner out of the Allen-Paul Pierce-Kevin Garnett era.

Don't bet on every member of the Big Three being around beyond the Feb. 18 trade deadline.

Though team president Danny Ainge has publicly ridiculed the Allen trade reports, several NBA executives told CBSSports.com that the Celtics have been actively trying to parlay Allen's $19.7 million expiring contract into an asset that could keep them in the mix during the upcoming playoffs and also help them for the next several seasons. The most recent inquiry, sources say, involved Sacramento sharpshooter Kevin Martin, who'd be a good fit with Boston's remaining core. Kings officials might be talked out of their reluctance to deal Martin if they could pry a prolific big man out of a third team brought into the discussions or in a separate transaction before the deadline.

The bottom line is that Ainge, who saved his job by pulling off the perfect storm of trades that yielded Allen and Garnett three years ago, has made it clear in private conversations that he's "not going back to the abyss," according to one person familiar with the discussions. 

"Danny has said, 'I can't go back to square one where we were prior to the Garnett deal,'" the person said. "At the All-Star break, they’re going to look in the mirror and say, 'Cleveland got better, we can't beat Orlando, and we can't even beat the Hawks. We’re not going to win it this year.'"

If the Celtics kept Allen and let his contract come off the books, they'd still be over the cap this summer with no avenues besides sign-and-trades to acquire a starting shooting guard. That's why Boston also has expressed interest in the Bulls' Kirk Hinrich, an excellent defender and ball-handler who would give the Celtics a starting two guard next season at $9 million and in 2011-12 at $8 million. The Bulls' motivation would be cap relief.

The Kings, who are not planning to be big free-agent shoppers this summer, aren't seeking to acquire cap space alone. They want assets -- and the Celtics don't have a young big man to offer. The Bulls, who almost certainly will move Tyrus Thomas, might need to be invited into that conversation to satisfy everyone's needs.

Whatever avenue they pursue, the Celtics don't want to go into this summer with no cap flexibility and no assets that could be used to keep them among the elite. Before Ainge struck the 2007 draft-related deal for Allen and then plucked Garnett from Minnesota with the help of former teammate Kevin McHale, the Celtics had just endured a 24-win season and hadn't been out of the first round since 2002-03. Ainge and Doc Rivers were on the brink of getting fired until the perfect remedy presented itself -- and the Celtics parlayed the Allen and Garnett deals into their 17th NBA title.

"Kevin McHale's out of the league," one rival executive said, only half-joking. "So they're not going to be able to recreate that deal again."

The period leading up to that was so grim that nobody in the organization wants to revisit it. The best way to avoid such a scenario would be to part ways with Allen. It wouldn't be starting over. Instead, it would be a bold attempt to have a chance against Cleveland, Orlando, and Atlanta in the playoffs and avoid going back to the depths of rebuilding.

NEW YORK-- Launching a grim opening salvo in what is expected to be a contentious labor negotiation, NBA owners have sent their initial proposal to the players association and are pushing for some elements of a "hard" salary cap as well as a drastic reduction in player salaries, CBSSports.com has learned.

The proposal, sent to the union earlier this week, seeks a reduction in the players' share of basketball-related income from 57 percent to well below 50 percent, according to a person familiar with the document. Owners also are seeking some elements of a hard cap -- a departure from the current luxury-tax system -- and a reduction in the length and amount of max contracts.

Owners and players will meet in Dallas during All-Star weekend for their first face-to-face bargaining session as they try to reach an agreement before the current deal expires in 2011. The talks coincide with the NFL's labor negotiation, in which owners have proposed an 18 percent pay cut for players.

Billy Hunter, executive director of the players association, did not return calls seeking comment on the proposal, which is sure to set a serious tone in talks aimed at averting the league's first lockout since the 1998-99 season. NBA spokesman Tim Frank said league officials would have no comment.

Owners are seeking significant changes to the league's financial structure as many of them face massive losses in the wake of the global economic crisis. In addition to lowering the players' overall share of basketball-related income (BRI), owners are pushing for some elements of a hard cap to replace the current luxury tax system, in which teams with payrolls above the tax line subsidize those staying below the limit, which was set at $69.9 million this season.

But players already are facing a reduction in salaries next season, when the cap is expected to decline from the current level of $57.7 million to between $50 million and $54 million. Most team executives working on financial projections for next season are predicting a $52 million cap.

Union president Derek Fisher, speaking Sunday before the Lakers played the Celtics in Boston, predicted that the owners would "overreach" with their initial proposal and said the players would strongly oppose a dramatic reduction their share of BRI.

One prominent player agent, speaking to CBSSports.com about the impending labor talks, called a hard cap "untenable," but said the owners' financial losses a similar request for pay cuts by NFL owners create a double-whammy of leverage.

"The players will talk tough, but I'm not sure they have a whole lot to hang their hat on," the agent said. "If the NFL is cutting salaries, I think you can expect something similar in the NBA."

If the owners succeed in implementing some version of a hard cap, management sources predict it would drive player salaries down precipitously. The players likely will argue that the luxury tax system is working as a payroll impediment. Only a handful of the highest-revenue teams pay luxury tax in a given year, and a flurry of trades prior to the Feb. 18 deadline will illustrate the union's point. The majority of trades that will be consummated will be driven by teams trying to pare salary to avoid clipping the luxury tax line.

"An NFL-style hard cap is going to blow the minimum-salary and mid-level players completely out of the water," one person familiar with the owners' proposal said. "In any hard-cap system, the owners are going to pay the stars. If there are no exceptions and no ways to exceed the cap, everybody else is going to be left with the scraps."

Perhaps that is why the owners want to go farther than changing the rules; they want the league's highest-paid players to take a haircut, as well. Owners are seeking to reduce the maximum length of contracts to five years for players re-signing with their current teams and to four years for players signing with new teams. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, in effect since 2005, players re-signing with their current teams can be under contract for a maximum of six years. Other free agents can sign for a maximum of five. This would be a way to avoid star players' salaries remaining high while the second- and third-tier players bear the brunt of the overall payroll reduction.

As CBSSports.com reported Jan. 29, a segment of ownership believes that reducing the length and amount of max contracts would wipe out the owners' collective financial losses by itself. But by pushing for a significant reduction in maximum salaries, the owners would be alienating the players who produce the vast majority of revenue for their teams; fans pay to see LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, not Daniel Gibson and Dorell Wright.

“If they don’t like the new max contracts, LeBron can play football, where he will make less than the new max,” one team executive told CBSSports.com last week. “Wade can be a fashion model or whatever. They won’t make squat and no one will remember who they are in a few years.”

The negotiations also have implications that are much more immediate than a potential lockout to start the 2011-12 season. Numerous marquee stars, such as James, Wade, Chris Bosh, Amar'e Stoudemire and Joe Johnson, have the ability to opt out of their contracts July 1 and become free agents. Most of those players and their agents already were expecting a less favorable CBA in 2011. But if a drastic cut in max contracts becomes inevitable as part of a new labor agreement, such players might be even more motivated to opt out and sign long-term deals under the current deal. Just another wrinkle that could make what is expected to be the biggest free agency period in NBA history even bigger.

The Clippers' news release explaining Mike Dunleavy's decision to step down as head coach Thursday made quite a big deal of the "opportunities" that will present themselves via the trade deadline, draft, and free agency. So let me get this straight: After four playoff appearances in 26 years, the Clippers want their fans to wait till next year?

Again?

Dunleavy stepping down as coach was hardly surprising; he's been on the hot seat since the first two weeks of the season, when a team that had enough talent to win even without No. 1 overall pick Blake Griffin stumbled out of the gate with seven losses in their first 10 games. Nor was it stunning that Dunleavy would remain in his role as general manager. If Donald Sterling owes somebody money, they will work for it. What kind of job they do is immaterial.

Byron Scott and Lawrence Frank got the ax in November, and yet Dunleavy coached on -- for far too long, with a team that so obviously had tuned him out. As the Clippers would have us believe, this finally dawned on the organization Thursday in a meeting involving Dunleavy, team president Andy Roeser, and assistant GM Neil Olshey. Quick, somebody let them know that Lehman Brothers went under, too.

“I’ve had several conversations with our owner concerning what we think is best for the team overall," Dunleavy said in the statement released by the team. "We have discussed the possibility of my concentrating only on basketball operations. That option has always been available to me. I’ve come to the conclusion that this is the ideal time for me to direct my efforts toward the many personnel opportunities that lie before us, such as the trade market, the draft and the free agent process. We fully expect to be active and productive on all those fronts.”

Assistant coach Kim Hughes will take over the interim reins for the rest of the season, which will include all these great opportunities for the organization and a wonderful perk for fans, too. They get to watch the Clippers limp toward the finish line of another dismal, non-playoff season.

By the time everyone in Clipperland "mutually" agreed that the team needed a "fresh voice," the Clippers had lost five of six games, including back-to-back losses to New Jersey and Minnesota, and found themselves seven games under .500 and seven games out of the eighth playoff spot in the West. The Clippers haven't beaten a team that currently has a winning record since they defeated the Lakers on Jan. 6.

After a 103-97 loss in Atlanta Wednesday night, Dunleavy finally concluded that "his voice wasn't reaching the team as effectively as he would've liked," according to a person familiar with the decision.

"We hope that our players will respond in a positive way," Roeser said.

Why wouldn't they? Oh, right. They're the Clippers.

I'm a little late to the party on this one. And being that I'm heading to Dallas a week from Thursday for All-Star weekend, I need to step up my game -- because folks in Dallas evidently like to show up at the party early and drink often.

You probably have heard by now about the two women who somehow gained access to the Trail Blazers' huddle in Dallas Saturday, and how one of them gained, um, access to Rudy Fernandez. One of the women -- whom Jerryd Bayless described to the Oregonian as "drunk" -- grabbed Fernandez during the incident and gave him a hug. The ladies were allowed to return to their seats. The NBA has said it's investigating the incident.

I don't attend many games in Dallas, but I sit courtside at my fair share in Madison Square Garden. And I assure you, if such an incident had occurred at MSG, those women would've been led out of the building in handcuffs. If they were lucky. At two separate games this season, I witnessed a particularly beefy MSG security guard charged with protecting the visiting team's bench virtually challenge an unruly fan to a fight. One of the fans, who was accosting members of the Toronto Raptors' bench, clearly had his beer muscles in full effect and decided to go nose-to-nose with the aforementioned beefy security guard. Bad idea. The bouncer -- for lack of a better term -- walked Joe Six Pack all the way up the aisle, down a flight of stairs, and into a hallway. Lord only only knows what happened next.

The Garden security staff is notoriously aggressive, which I suppose in a case like this would've been a good thing. Mavs owner Mark Cuban was right; this sort of thing happens all the time in NBA arenas. A couple of years ago, a fan made his way onto the court and tried to high-five LeBron James during a timeout. I don't remember what happened to that fan. I'm sure the fan doesn't, either.

The Knicks held a moment of silence Wednesday night to honor Hall of Famer Dick McGuire, who died earlier in the day at age 84. And silence is what there will be more of at Madison Square Garden without him.

"You could sit with him and talk about the team, what he thought about the team and what he thought we needed," Knicks president Donnie Walsh said. "I'm going to miss that."

The Knicks and the NBA lost a legend when McGuire died Wednesday morning at Huntington Hospital in Long Island, N.Y. Incredibly, he was with the Knicks as a player, head coach, assistant coach, scout, and most recently in his role as consultant. He was a five-time All-Star, led the Knicks to three straight NBA Finals (1951-53), and remains third in franchise history with 2,950 assists.

His No. 15 jersey, retired in 1992, was to have the spotlight shone on it during Wednesday night's game against the Wizards. McGuire was enshrined in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame in 1993, but personal accolades and ego were strangers to him. Even as age advanced on him, McGuire used to ride the Long Island Railroad to the Garden, walk into the building carrying a simple duffle bag with handwritten scouting notes, and talk basketball with anyone who would listen. Those who knew what was good for them did.

"He knew what it took to play in this league, and he knew what it took to win in this league," Walsh said. "... He was an everyday guy who loved living on Long Island, loved his family, and didn't take it too seriously."

His brother, legendary coach Al McGuire, died in 2001. They are the only two brothers enshrined in the Hall of Fame.

Dick McGuire is survived by his wife Teri, four children, and seven grandchildren. Funeral arrangements are pending.

With a little more than two weeks to go before the Feb. 18 trade deadline, the chatter is starting to pick up. Here’s the latest trade buzz culled from conversations with team executives, agents, and others in the know:

• It’s been well documented that the Cavaliers’ infatuation with Antawn Jamison has been rekindled. What’s been underplayed is the reason behind it: LeBron James is the one driving the team’s pursuit of Jamison, according to a source, and Cavs GM Danny Ferry – as usual – is trying to appease the King. A couple of problems: The Wizards want a young asset in return, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas – while a fit salary-wise – doesn’t fit that description. The sensible piece to include in the deal would be J.J. Hickson, whom the Cavs are reluctant to give up. But if the Cavs got Jamison, what value would Hickson be to them as their fifth big man? One scenario that is believed to be under discussion would have the Cavs hoping the Wizards bought out Ilgauskas after the trade, using some cash added to the deal by Cleveland. That way, the Cavs could sign Ilgauskas back on a minimum deal, giving them the player James covets (Jamison) and a 7-foot-4 insurance policy for Shaquille O’Neal. The Wizards would have to ask themselves if getting out from under Jamison’s contract and adding Hickson is enough to justify a deal that would get them under the tax next summer, but not under the cap.

• If the Cavs can’t get Jamison, Indiana’s Troy Murphy is Plan B. And yes, there’s a Plan C -- Andre Iguodala. Whereas the Cavs’ front office believes Jamison could help them win a championship this year, Iguodala would be more of a long-term solution. And he better be, with four years and $56 million left on his deal.

• Rumblings about Ray Allen being on his way out of Boston are accurate, but only if the Celtics can get back a player who’d crack the top eight in their rotation. One scenario that has been discussed would have Allen going to Chicago for Kirk Hinrich and another piece – John Salmons? – to satisfy the salary requirements. If it came to fruition, what an intriguing swap it would be for teams that waged such a thrilling postseason battle only eight months ago. Since Allen’s $19.7 million contract expires after the season, acquiring him would leave Chicago flush with cap space for a 2010 free-agent binge centered around Chicago native Dwyane Wade and an additional superstar.

• One of Allen’s teammates also is generating some interest: Kendrick Perkins, who’d be a perfect fit for a team like the Pistons, who are desperate for a post presence. But Perkins only makes $4.3 million, and it’s difficult to imagine the Celtics parting with him given the way Kevin Garnett is gimping around.

• Other than Cleveland, only a handful of teams are active in trade talks and willing to take on money. The others are Dallas, Boston, Portland and potentially Denver, which could get ownership approval for a big enough name – though no such possibility is imminent. The Nuggets are steadfastly refusing to include J.R. Smith in any deal, and their quest for a big man will have to go in a different direction with Indiana’s Jeff Foster likely out for the year with back issues.

• The Mavs, behind big spender Mark Cuban, are always buyers at the deadline. Nothing has changed this year, with the Mavs said to be targeting help at shooting guard in a deal that would likely include Josh Howard and Erick Dampier.

• The Blazers’ interest in Wizards center Brendan Haywood is understandable, considering the catastrophic injuries to Greg Oden and Joel Pryzbilla. But an expiring contract – such as the one belonging to Travis Outlaw – won’t be enough to pique Washington’s interest. As with Jamison, the Wizards want useful assets in return. In this case, sources say, Washington has asked for Rudy Fernandez and has been strongly rebuffed. Consider those talks stalled for now, but don’t discount a revival before Feb. 18 for these reasons: 1) The Blazers’ desperate need for a big man, and 2) Their ability to get ownership approval to take on money in the right deal.

• Miami also has expressed interest in Haywood, but sources say that would require taking on money in the deal – something Heat president Pat Riley has been unwilling to entertain.

• There are differing opinions in Utah as to what strategy to pursue with Carlos Boozer. Ownership wants to trade him to avoid paying luxury tax. Coach Jerry Sloan wants to keep him because he thinks the Jazz can make playoff noise. All in all, the Jazz might be better off keeping him because their payroll will be roughly $58 million – under the projected tax line – after his $12.7 million salary comes off the books this summer. But don’t discount a solution that would solve both problems: Trading Boozer to the Pistons, who have long coveted him, for Tayshaun Prince. Such a swap would give the Jazz a playoff-tested defender with length and all but get them out of the luxury tax for this season. Prince would be on the books for $9 million next season, but he’d be easy to trade because of his expiring contract. Plus, the difference between owing and receiving luxury tax money this season would be roughly a $7 million swing.

• Tracy McGrady’s level of availability – as in, very available – far exceeds the seriousness of the offers Houston has received, sources say. “A lot of talk,” is how one person in contact with Rockets officials characterized the status of the Free T-Mac campaign. Ditto for Amar’e Stoudemire in Phoenix.

• While there are only a few select buyers in the trade market, there are about two dozen sellers – but none more serious than the Sixers. Philadelphia is said to be open to trading anyone and everyone, and the conversations always start with the guys with the most money committed to them: Elton Brand, Samuel Dalembert, and Iguodala. Good luck.

• On an unrelated note, former Knick John Starks attracted a star-studded crowd in New York City Tuesday night for a celebrity bowling tournament benefiting the John Starks Foundation, which provides college scholarships for kids in the New York City area and Starks’ native Tulsa, Okla. Hall of Famer Earl Monroe, actor Matthew Modine, and Knicks forward Al Harrington were among the headliners.

The Celtics got positive news about one of their aging stars Tuesday night when tests revealed that Paul Pierce has a strained left foot -- not a broken one -- and is day-to-day.

Amid fears that the most productive member of the struggling Big Three might have a broken bone in the foot after colliding with the Wizards' Caron Butler when diving for a loose ball Monday night, the tests revealed a mid-foot strain. The Celtics didn't call it a sprain, although that's typically how this type of injury is classified.

In any event, it was far from the worst-case scenario for Boston, which has lost six of nine -- including three straight to Orlando, Atlanta, and the Lakers.

January is the month when NBA teams start figuring out what they are. The feeling-out period of November and December gives way a time when night-to-night performance dictates the tweaks that are needed at the trade deadline.

Based on the standings as we sit here on Feb. 1, there are nine teams legitimately in the Eastern Conference playoff picture (the line is drawn at the Knicks, who enter the month six games out of the eighth spot). In the West, 11 teams are strong playoff contenders (drawing the line at the Clippers, who are six games out of eighth). Of those 20 teams, which ones performed the best and the worst in the month of January, and why?

The “who” is easy. For the “why,” we need some statistical analysis. And for that, we turn to adjusted plus/minus expert Wayne Winston. In his blog, Winston opines on all 30 teams and why they performed the way they did in the month of January. Let’s break out Winston’s analysis of the playoff contenders with the five best and five worst records last month:

(To review, adjusted plus/minus tells you how many points better or worse a team would perform if a given player were paired with four average players against five average players. For example, LeBron James’ was plus-21 in January, meaning his team was 21 points better than average when adjusted for whom LeBron was playing with and against.)

Five Best

1. Cleveland (12-3): It’s all about Shaquille O’Neal, whose adjusted plus/minus through December was minus-4 but in January was plus-4.
1. (t)Denver (12-3): Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups are overrated, according to Winston. Nene and Chris “Birdman” Andersen each had a plus-23 rating in January.
3. Charlotte (12-4): The Bobcats’ success can be attributed to Gerald Wallace (plus-15), Flip Murray (plus-11), and Stephen Jackson (plus-8).
4. Utah (10-4): Deron Williams registered a plus-17, but Andre Kirilenko, Carlos Boozer, and Kyle Korver all were plus-10 or better, too.
5. New Orleans (12-5): Chris Paul (plus-8) and Marcus Thornton (plus-9) combined to form an effective starting backcourt – a plan that will have to be adjusted with Paul out indefinitely due to a left knee injury requiring surgery. Darren Collison, you’re up ...
5. (t) Lakers (12-5): Winston says Ron Artest (minus-1) has been fading steadily since his Christmas night fall and unrelated foot ailments. Remarkably, his system credits Sasha Vujacic with a plus-16 – same as Kobe.

Five Worst

1. Houston (5-9): David Andersen (plus-7) has been helpful. Chuck Hayes (minus-9), not so much.
2. Boston (6-8): The main culprit, as you might expect, has been Kevin Garnett (minus-11), whose offensive rating was even worse than his overall adjusted plus/minus (minus-21). Glen “Don’t Call Me Big Baby” Davis also struggled (minus-14).
3. Phoenix (7-9): Channing Frye’s rating went from plus-13 through December to plus-2 in January. Amar’e Stoudemire, Jason Richardson, Grant Hill, Goran Dragic, and Louis Amundson all hovered between minus-9 and minus-11. Robin Lopez was plus-9.
4. Portland (7-8): Nicolas Batum (plus-16), Andre Miller (plus-13), Martell Webster (plus-13), and Jerryd Bayless (plus-10) kept the Blazers afloat. But they need a big man in the worst way, as Juwan Howard (minus-18) and Jeff Pendergraph (minus-14) killed them.
5. Miami (8-9): Rafer Alston (minus-14) hasn’t solved the Heat’s point guard woes. Dorell Wright (plus-11) was solid.

No single statistical method is the be-all, end-all for evaluating a team’s performance. Depending on which front office you’re talking to, you’ll get different accounts of which data are most meaningful. But these numbers shed some light on some common beliefs about what certain contenders need to add or subtract before the Feb. 18 trade deadline. In Denver’s case, the performance of Nene and Birdman seemed to debunk the notion that the Nuggets desperately need to acquire a big man. In Portland’s case, the data proves that the Blazers need an upgrade in the frontcourt.

The Celtics? They need Garnett to be as healthy and dominant as he was two years ago. (Don’t hold your breath.) Do the Jazz need to trade Boozer? If they want to get under the luxury tax they do, but not if they want to continue playing their best basketball of the season.

Which team that’s currently a long shot to make the playoffs had the best January? That would be the Bucks, who went 8-7 in January – better than six teams currently in the hunt. The Bucks are an aberration to Winston, as well, because all he could come up with to explain their success was Charlie Bell’s plus-10 rating in January. It’s an imperfect system that nonetheless provides some interesting stuff to think about as we close in on Feb. 18.

A loss to the Chicago Bulls that didn't need to happen was even more costly than the New Orleans Hornets imagined.

All-Star point guard Chris Paul hurt his left knee chasing a needless court-length pass by David West Friday night during a 108-106 overtime loss to the Bulls. As a result, Paul will have the knee scoped and is expected to miss at least a month, sources confirmed to CBSSports.com Sunday night.

More will be known about the severity of a meniscus tear in Paul's left knee once the scope is performed Monday, but it's clear that he will miss the All-Star Game and at least a month of time. Yahoo! Sports first reported that Paul would need surgery.

One person familiar with the situation told CBSSports.com that Paul tweaked the knee Wednesday night in a 123-110 victory at Golden State. On Friday night, the Hornets appeared to have a victory over the Bulls wrapped up when West threw a court-length pass out of Paul's reach in the final seconds of regulation. Paul aggravated the knee, and the Bulls parlayed the turnover into an overtime-forcing basket.

Paul's absence will not only impair the Hornets' quest for a playoff spot, it also will open an All-Star spot for Denver's Chauncey Billups or Golden State's Monta Ellis, two deserving Western Conference guards who were left off the coaches' list of reserves named last week.

In addition to what Mark Cuban recently promised would be the “biggest party weekend in the history of the United States,” All-Star weekend in Dallas will mark another important milestone: The beginning of critical negotiations on a new labor agreement between NBA owners and players.

The two sides have met informally and have been exchanging financial and other data for several months. The massive gathering of league and team officials in Dallas will present the first opportunity to begin exchanging proposals. One thing that can be assured is that both sides should expect some sticker shock.

One executive involved in the process told CBSSports.com that the owners seek to take a huge bite out of player salaries, and that one method under consideration would be to drastically reduce the length and amount of max contracts. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said targeting the highest-paid players would serve two purposes: It would unify the vast majority of players who don’t make the current max – which is expected to start at about $15 million annually for players signing new deals next summer – and it would wipe out the owners’ financial losses all by itself.

“They need us more than we need them,” the executive said.

I’m not sure I agree. While there is little question the system needs to be changed, owners have to remember that fans pay to see stars. A certain segment of ownership, according to the executive, is prepared to argue that players like LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh enjoy millions of dollars in endorsement income by virtue of playing in the NBA. Take away the NBA and its platform, and you take away the superstars’ ability to make money.

“If they don’t like the new max contracts, LeBron can play football, where he will make less than the new max,” the executive said. “Wade can be a fashion model or whatever. They won’t make squat and no one will remember who they are in a few years.”

If those seem like harsh words, get used to it. The tone of negotiations aimed at avoiding a lockout is only going to get uglier. The owners are unified, the executive said, and determined to crush the union on this one.

There are many ways to solve the NBA’s financial problems, and my guess is that owners will have to look beyond the superstars to get this done. In many cases, it isn’t the superstar signings that get teams in trouble. It’s the ill-advised mid-level deals that wreck the cap because teams reach for seemingly affordable free agents who push gently against the luxury tax line but, over time, cost far more than they’re worth. The Knicks have had among the highest payrolls in the NBA for a decade and they haven’t signed a big-ticket free agent since Allan Houston and Chris Childs. But they’ve had more than their share of Jerome Jameses.

So with that in mind, we get to the rest of the Weekly Post-Ups:

• Tracy McGrady is splitting time between Houston and Chicago, where he’s working out with trainer Tim Grover while he hopes for a trade that would extricate him from the Rockets. With a league-high $23 million salary, suitors are seeking the same thing the Rockets would get if they simply keep T-Mac and let his contract fall off the books – cap space for next summer. According to a person familiar with the situation, the Knicks, Sixers, and Wizards are the most persistent names linked to McGrady, with the Bulls becoming a less likely destination with their improved play of late.

• Other names on the “hoping to be traded” list are Indiana’s T.J. Ford and Oklahoma City’s Etan Thomas, who both have fallen out of their respective rotations.

• Though Utah’s heightened level of play would seem to lower the urgency to trade Carlos Boozer to get below the tax line, don’t be surprised if the Pistons re-enter the fray before the Feb. 18 deadline. Joe Dumars had been planning to go after Boozer had the power forward opted out of his contract last summer, and the Pistons are internally mulling what to do with Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton.

• A potential swap sending Brendan Haywood to Portland – discussed here a few weeks ago – indeed has risen to the discussion level. But it will take some time for the Blazers to extract more realistic offers for the $6 million big man, who could help any number of contenders.

• The Sixers have been among the most active teams in the trade grapevine, and who could blame them? With Elton Brand, Samuel Dalembert, and Andre Iguodala, team president Ed Stefanski has $120 million he’d like to divest himself of over the next four seasons. Moving any one of those players would be a start, but Iguodala appears to be the most attractive piece for a team seeking wing scoring for the stretch run.

What did we learn from the Magic-Celtics game Thursday night -- a late-January game with little significance in the standings?

We learned that we want some more Magic-Celtics drama in the playoffs. Here's hoping we get some.

There was Jameer Nelson taking out his All-Star snub on Rajon Rondo early in the game, followed by Rondo proving why he's a first-time All-Star with a steal and key basket late in the fourth. There were J.J. Redick and Paul Pierce exchanging 3-pointers, followed by Rashard Lewis bursting past a limping Kevin Garnett for the go-ahead basket with 1.3 seconds left.

This game had it all, the way an Orlando-Boston playoff series would have it all once again. You had the Magic coming back from a 16-point deficit, then defending the final inbounds play so Rondo couldn't get the ball to Allen or Paul Pierce, but instead got it to Rasheed Wallace, whose buzzer-beating 3-point attempt for the win was off.

You had Garnett, clearly not himself, dragging his bum leg around to the tune of six points on 2-for-8 shooting in 33 minutes, and Vince Carter continuing to struggle in his role with 2-for-13 shooting and six points.

My instinct at this early point in the journey? The Magic can and will survive Carter's inconsistency because they're so deep and versatile. Stan Van Gundy has more lineups than Craig Sager has suits. The Celtics are a different story. They're a team built on defense first, and Garnett isn't close to being right. The Magic can get by with Carter having an off shooting night, and they can get by if they jack a few too many threes. They can get by with Jason Williams running the point and with Dwight Howard missing free throws.

The Celtics can't get by without a healthy, impactful Garnett. There would be nothing better than Garnett getting back to some semblance of himself, because the Celtics and Magic in a seven-game playoff series in May would be just about as good as it gets.

They meet again a week from Sunday in Boston, their final head-to-head matchup of the regular season. These two teams can't play each other enough, as far as I'm concerned.

First of all, as Charles Barkley would say, I love the seven first-time selections. All-Star weekend is badly in need of some juice, and I think there's a good chance that some of these first-timers -- Deron Williams, Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo -- will provide some of the weekend's most memorable moments.

I know this is a knee-jerk sports world and we're supposed to fight about everything, but I don't have enormous problems with the coaches' selections. In the East, they picked Rose and Al Horford over my picks -- David Lee and Josh Smith. I disagree on Horford; Smith is the Hawks' most important player after Joe Johnson, and Horford doesn't play enough minutes to be an All-Star. Lee deserves to be there, too. Being based in New York, I have more than my share of chances to watch him bust his behind on a talent-less team. Rose? I don't have any problem with him being an All-Star. He'll be great to watch in an All-Star Game. Guys like Rose understand the moment and know how to rise to it.

In the West, I only differed with the coaches on one selection: They chose Zach Randolph; I chose Chauncey Billups. If I met with every coach who chose Randolph and we debated outside some NBA locker room, I don't think anybody would win. Z-Bo is having a great year on a surprisingly competitive team. Billups remains the glue that keeps the Nuggets together. I'll take the No. 2 pick in that draft and be happy.

In making my picks, I used the same criteria the coaches are instructed to use: select seven reserves, ranked 1-7 for weighting purposes, according to the following positional breakdown: center, two forwards, two guards, and two wild cards.


Here were my picks -- with the coaches' alternative in parentheses, where applicable:

East

1. Chris Bosh, F, Toronto: The "other" 2010 free agent went into the season determined to put up huge numbers, which he is. Bosh's steady play also is a big reason for the Raptors' recent resurgence.

2. Rajon Rondo, G, Boston: Nothing against Kevin Garnett or Ray Allen, but Rondo may have surpassed both of them as the most important Celtic after Paul Pierce.

3. Josh Smith, F, Atlanta (Coaches picked Derrick Rose): Defense, shot-blocking, scoring -- J-Smoove does it all, except take too many 3-pointers. He's eliminated that annoying aspect of his game and deserves to be rewarded.

4. Gerald Wallace, F (wild card), Charlotte: This is a tough call between Wallace and Danny Granger. I'll give the nod to Wallace because of defense and team success.

5. David Lee, C, Knicks (Coaches picked Al Horford): It's time to stop attributing Lee's machine-like double-double production to Mike D'Antoni's system and recognize that there's nothing wrong with being one of the best pick-and-roll big men in the league.

6. Joe Johnson, G, Atlanta: Johnson should send a thank-you gift to Jamal Crawford, whose ability to absorb some of the end-of-quarter/end-of-game scoring load has kept Johnson fresh.

7. Paul Pierce, F (wild card), Boston: Rondo makes the Celtics' engine go, but Pierce is still the closer -- one of the best in the league at both ends of the floor.


West


1. Dirk Nowitzki, F, Dallas: Still playing at an MVP level and never gets the recognition he deserves.

2. Chris Paul, G, New Orleans: In terms of statistics and overall talent, the best point guard in the league.

3. Brandon Roy, G, Portland: With all of Portland's injuries -- including Roy's own balky hamstring of late -- this budding superstar deserves credit for keeping the Blazers afloat.

4. Chauncey Billups, G (wild card), Denver (Coaches picked Zach Randolph): We take Mr. Big Shot for granted because he's so consistent, but remember: He's consistently great. Monta Ellis deserves serious consideration here or for one of the wild-card spots, but there are simply too many great guards in the West for him to break through.

5. Pau Gasol, C, Lakers: Despite missing a big chunk of the season, Gasol has played enough to warrant an All-Star nod. When he's on the floor, he's among the most gifted and impactful big men in the league. Gasol or Randolph? I'll take Gasol.

6. Kevin Durant, F, Oklahoma City: We knew he could score, but now KD is emerging as a much improved defender and leader.

7. Deron Williams, G (wild card), Utah: This is why there's no room for Randolph on my squad, despite his solid 20-point, 11-rebound averages on a much improved Memphis team. D-Will is too good -- and the Jazz's recent resurgence too notable to overlook -- for one of the top point guards in the NBA to continue to get overlooked.